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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

Bolshinskiy, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Universal Tare Load Prediction Algorithm for Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis

An algorithm is discussed that may be used to estimate tare loads of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm was originally developed by R. Galway of IAR/NRC Canada and has been described in the literature for the iterative analysis technique. Basic ideas of Galway's algorithm, however, are universally applicable and work for both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique. A recent modification of Galway's algorithm is presented that improves the convergence behavior of the tare load prediction process if it is used in combination with the non-iterative analysis technique. The modified algorithm allows an analyst to use an alternate method for the calculation of intermediate non-linear tare load estimates whenever Galway's original approach does not lead to a convergence of the tare load iterations. It is also shown in detail how Galway's algorithm may be applied to the non-iterative analysis technique. Hand load data from the calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the original and modified tare load prediction method. During the analysis of the data both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique were applied. Overall, predicted tare loads for combinations of the two tare load prediction methods and the two balance data analysis techniques showed excellent agreement as long as the tare load iterations converged. The modified algorithm, however, appears to have an advantage over the original algorithm when absolute voltage measurements of gage outputs are processed using the non-iterative analysis technique. In these situations only the modified algorithm converged because it uses an exact solution of the intermediate non-linear tare load estimate for the tare load iteration.

balance calibration analysis↗
NASA NTRS2016

End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

batteries↗
NASA NTRS2015

Prediction of Tensile Strength of Friction Stir Weld Joints with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Neural Network

Friction-stir-welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process where joint properties are dependent on welding process parameters. In the current study three critical process parameters including spindle speed (𝑁), plunge force (𝐹𝑧), and welding speed (𝑉) are considered key factors in the determination of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of welded aluminum alloy joints. A total of 73 weld schedules were welded and tensile properties were subsequently obtained experimentally. It is observed that all three process parameters have direct influence on UTS of the welded joints. Utilizing experimental data, an optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been developed to predict UTS of FSW joints. A total of 1200 models were developed by varying the number of membership functions (MFs), type of MFs, and combination of four input variables (𝑁,𝑉,𝐹𝑧,𝐸𝐹𝐼) utilizing a MATLAB platform. Note EFI denotes an empirical force index derived from the three process parameters. For comparison, optimized artificial neural network (ANN) models were also developed to predict UTS from FSW process parameters. By comparing ANFIS and ANN predicted results, it was found that optimized ANFIS models provide better results than ANN. This newly developed best ANFIS model could be utilized for prediction of UTS of FSW joints.

Mohammad W Dewan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the Uniqueness of Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance Load Predictions

A new test was developed to assess the uniqueness of wind tunnel strain-gage balance load predictions that are obtained from regression models of calibration data. The test helps balance users to gain confidence in load predictions of non-traditional balance designs. It also makes it possible to better evaluate load predictions of traditional balances that are not used as originally intended. The test works for both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Methods that are used in the aerospace testing community for the prediction of balance loads. It is based on the hypothesis that the total number of independently applied balance load components must always match the total number of independently measured bridge outputs or bridge output combinations. This hypothesis is supported by a control volume analysis of the inputs and outputs of a strain-gage balance. It is concluded from the control volume analysis that the loads and bridge outputs of a balance calibration data set must separately be tested for linear independence because it cannot always be guaranteed that a linearly independent load component set will result in linearly independent bridge output measurements. Simple linear math models for the loads and bridge outputs in combination with the variance inflation factor are used to test for linear independence. A highly unique and reversible mapping between the applied load component set and the measured bridge output set is guaranteed to exist if the maximum variance inflation factor of both sets is less than the literature recommended threshold of five. Data from the calibration of a six{component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new test to real-world data.

strain-gage balance↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predicting Transition from Laminar to Turbulent Flow over a Surface

A prediction of whether a point on a computer-generated surface is adjacent to laminar or turbulent flow is made using a transition prediction technique. A plurality of instability modes are obtained, each defined by one or more mode parameters. A vector of regressor weights is obtained for the known instability growth rates in a training dataset. For an instability mode in the plurality of instability modes, a covariance vector is determined. A predicted local instability growth rate at the point is determined using the covariance vector and the vector of regressor weights. Based on the predicted local instability growth rate, an n-factor envelope at the point is determined.

Rajnarayan, Dev↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extension of Miles Equation for Ring Baffle Damping Predictions to Small Slosh Amplitudes and Large Baffle Widths

The Miles equation has long been used to predict slosh damping in liquid propellant tanks due to ring baffles. The original work by Miles identifies defined limits to its range of application. Recent evaluations of the Space Launch System identified that the Core Stage baffle designs resulted in violating the limits of the application of the Miles equation. This paper describes the work conducted by NASA/MSFC to develop methods to predict slosh damping from ring baffles for conditions for which Miles equation is not applicable. For asymptotically small slosh amplitudes or conversely large baffle widths, an asymptotic expression for slosh damping was developed and calibrated using historical experimental sub-scale slosh damping data. For the parameter space that lies between region of applicability of the asymptotic expression and the Miles equation, Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of slosh damping were used to develop an expression for slosh damping. The combined multi-regime slosh prediction methodology is shown to be smooth at regime boundaries and consistent with both sub-scale experimental slosh damping data and the results of validated Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions of slosh damping due to ring baffles.

West, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2017

Summary of Data from the Sixth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop: CRM Cases 2 to 5

Results from the Sixth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop Common Research Model Cases 2 to 5 are presented. As with past workshops, numerical calculations are performed using industry-relevant geometry, methodology, and test cases. Cases 2 to 5 focused on force/moment and pressure predictions for the NASA Common Research Model wing-body and wing-body-nacelle-pylon configurations, including Case 2 - a grid refinement study and nacelle-pylon drag increment prediction study; Case 3 - an angle-of-attack buffet study; Case 4 - an optional wing-body grid adaption study; and Case 5 - an optional wing-body coupled aero-structural simulation. The Common Research Model geometry differed from previous workshops in that it was deformed to the appropriate static aeroelastic twist and deflection at each specified angle-of-attack. The grid refinement study used a common set of overset and unstructured grids, as well as user created Multiblock structured, unstructured, and Cartesian based grids. For the supplied common grids, six levels of refinement were created resulting in grids ranging from 7x10(exp 6) to 208x10(exp 6) cells. This study (Case 2) showed further reduced scatter from previous workshops, and very good prediction of the nacelle-pylon drag increment. Case 3 studied buffet onset at M=0.85 using the Medium grid (20 to 40x10(exp 6) nodes) from the above described sequence. The prescribed alpha sweep used finely spaced intervals through the zone where wing separation was expected to begin. Although the use of the prescribed aeroelastic twist and deflection at each angle-of-attack greatly improved the wing pressure distribution agreement with test data, many solutions still exhibited premature flow separation. The remaining solutions exhibited a significant spread of lift and pitching moment at each angle-of-attack, much of which can be attributed to excessive aft pressure loading and shock location variation. Four Case 4 grid adaption solutions were submitted. Starting with grids less than 2x10(exp 6) grid points, two solutions showed a rapid convergence to an acceptable solution. Four Case 5 coupled aerostructural solutions were submitted. Both showed good agreement with experimental data. Results from this workshop highlight the continuing need for CFD improvement, particularly for conditions with significant flow separation. These comparisons also suggest the need for improved experimental diagnostics to guide future CFD development.

Tinoco, Edward N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Examination of a Rotorcraft Noise Prediction Method and Comparison to Flight Test Data

With a view that rotorcraft noise should be included in the preliminary design process, a relatively fast noise prediction method is examined in this paper. A comprehensive rotorcraft analysis is combined with a noise prediction method to compute several noise metrics of interest. These predictions are compared to flight test data. Results show that inclusion of only the main rotor noise will produce results that severely underpredict integrated metrics of interest. Inclusion of the tail rotor frequency content is essential for accurately predicting these integrated noise metrics.

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Computational Modeling of Space Physiology for Informing Spaceflight Countermeasure Design and Predictions of Efficacy

MOTIVATION: Spaceflight countermeasures mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment on astronaut health and performance. Exercise has historically been used as a countermeasure to physical deconditioning, and additional countermeasures including lower body negative pressure, blood flow occlusion and artificial gravity are being researched as countermeasures to spaceflight-induced fluid shifts. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project uses computational models of physiological systems to inform countermeasure design and to predict countermeasure efficacy.OVERVIEW: Computational modeling supports the development of the exercise devices that will be flown on NASAs new exploration crew vehicles. Biomechanical modeling is used to inform design requirements to ensure that exercises can be properly performed within the volume allocated for exercise and to determine whether the limited mass, volume and power requirements of the devices will affect biomechanical outcomes. Models of muscle atrophy and bone remodeling can predict device efficacy for protecting musculoskeletal health during long-duration missions. A lumped-parameter whole-body model of the fluids within the body, which includes the blood within the cardiovascular system, the cerebral spinal fluid, interstitial fluid and lymphatic system fluid, estimates compartmental changes in pressure and volume due to gravitational changes. These models simulate fluid shift countermeasure effects and predict the associated changes in tissue strain in areas of physiological interest to aid in predicting countermeasure effectiveness. SIGNIFICANCE: Development and testing of spaceflight countermeasure prototypes are resource-intensive efforts. Computational modeling can supplement this process by performing simulations that reduce the amount of necessary experimental testing. Outcomes of the simulations are often important for the definition of design requirements and the identification of factors essential in ensuring countermeasure efficacy.

biomedical data↗
NASA NTRS2017

Prediction of Turbulent Temperature Fluctuations in Hot Jets

Large-eddy simulations (LES) were used to investigate turbulent temperature fluctuations and turbulent heat flux in hot jets. A high-resolution finite-difference Navier-Stokes solver was used to compute the flow from a 2-inch round nozzle. Three different flow conditions of varying jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios were examined. The LES results showed that the temperature field behaves similar to the velocity field, but with a more rapidly spreading mixing layer. Predictions of mean, mu-bar(sub i), and fluctuating, mu'(sub i), velocities were compared to particle image velocimetry data. Predictions of mean, T-bar, and fluctuating, T', temperature were compared to data obtained using Rayleigh scattering and Raman spectroscopy. Very good agreement with experimental data was demonstrated for the mean and fluctuating velocities. The LES correctly predicts the behavior of the turbulent temperature field, but over-predicts the levels of the fluctuations. The turbulent heat flux was examined and compared to Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) results. The LES and RANS simulations produced very similar results for the radial heat flux. However, the axial heat flux obtained from the LES differed significantly from the RANS result in both structure and magnitude, indicating that the gradient diffusion type model in RANS is inadequate. Finally, the LES data was used to compute the turbulent Prandtl number and verify that a constant value of 0.7 used in the RANS models is a reasonable assumption.

hot jets↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗
NASA NTRS2017

Systems and Methods for Automated Vessel Navigation Using Sea State Prediction

Systems and methods for sea state prediction and autonomous navigation in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes a method of predicting a future sea state including generating a sequence of at least two 3D images of a sea surface using at least two image sensors, detecting peaks and troughs in the 3D images using a processor, identifying at least one wavefront in each 3D image based upon the detected peaks and troughs using the processor, characterizing at least one propagating wave based upon the propagation of wavefronts detected in the sequence of 3D images using the processor, and predicting a future sea state using at least one propagating wave characterizing the propagation of wavefronts in the sequence of 3D images using the processor. Another embodiment includes a method of autonomous vessel navigation based upon a predicted sea state and target location.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2018

Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) Technology to Enable Thermally Stable Telescopes

The Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) technology development project is a multiyear effort initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2017, to mature the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of critical technologies required to enable ultra-thermally-stable telescopes for exoplanet science. During 2017/18 PTC has successfully progressed its three defined objectives: 1. Validate thermal optical performance models. 2. Derive thermal system stability specifications. 3. Demonstrate Predictive Thermal Control. by accomplishing or advancing three of its five quantifiable milestones: Milestone #1 (Complete): Created a high-fidelity STOP (Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance) model of the1.5 meter ULE® AMTD (Advanced Mirror Technology Development)-2 mirror, including 3D CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) distribution and reflective coating, that predicts its optical performance response to steady-state and dynamic thermal gradients. Structural model was created using 3D X-Ray Computed Tomography; Milestone #2 (Complete): Derived specifications for thermal control system as a function of wavefront stability for a Vector Vortex Coronagraph; Milestone #3 (In-Process): Designed and started fabricating a predictive Thermal Control System for the AMTD-2 1.5 meter ULE® mirror that senses temperature changes and actively controls the mirror's thermal environment; Milestone #4 (In-Process): Performed preliminary STOP model validation tests of the 1.5-m ULE® mirror in a relevant thermal vacuum environment at the MSFC X-ray and Cryogenic Facility (XRCF) test facility; Milestone #5: Use validated model to perform trade studies to determine how thermo-optical performance can be optimized as a function of mirror design, material selection, mass, etc.

Stahl, H. Philip↗