Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “potential yield”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent Metabolic Changes in Rhizomes of Lowland and Upland Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) from Early Season through Dormancy Onset

High-biomass-yielding southerly adapted switchgrasses (Panicum virgatum L.) frequently suffer from unpredictable winter hardiness at more northerly sites arising from damage to rhizomes that prevent effective spring regrowth. Previously, changes occurring over the growing season in rhizomes sampled from a cold-adapted tetraploid upland cultivar, Summer, demonstrated a role for abscisic acid (ABA), starch accumulation, and transcriptional reprogramming as drivers of dormancy onset and potential keys to rhizome health during winter dormancy. Here, rhizome metabolism of a high-yielding southerly adapted tetraploid switchgrass cultivar, Kanlow—which is a significant source of genetics for yield improvement—was studied over a growing season at a northern site. Metabolite levels and transcript abundances were combined to develop physiological profiles accompanying greening through the onset of dormancy in Kanlow rhizomes. Next, comparisons of the data to rhizome metabolism occurring in the adapted upland cultivar Summer were performed. These data revealed both similarities as well as numerous differences in rhizome metabolism that were indicative of physiological adaptations unique to each cultivar. Similarities included elevated ABA levels and accumulation of starch in rhizomes during dormancy onset. Notable differences were observed in the accumulation of specific metabolites, the expression of genes encoding transcription factors, and several enzymes linked to primary metabolism.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical study of solid solution strengthening in the refractory medium entropy alloy Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15

The refractory medium-entropy alloy (RMEA) Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 exhibits exceptional tensile ductility and fracture toughness at ambient temperature, but its engineering applications are limited by a lack of high temperature strength. Using a machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) with near-density functional theory (DFT) accuracy, we conducted molecular dynamics (MD) and statics simulations of the behavior of dislocations with both screw and edge characters. We also analyze experimentally measured yield strengths using the Rao-Suzuki model and the Maresca-Curtin model modified to include a temperature-dependent shear modulus and a bulk modulus-dependent misfit volume, thereby uncovering the mechanisms underlying the yielding of this RMEA. Compared with the published experimental yield strength, the models parameterized by the MLIP effectively reproduce the experimental results over a wide temperature range. The models and MD simulations indicate that yielding is governed by screw dislocations, with dipole dragging as the dominant mechanism. In MD simulations, we observed a potential softening mechanism not considered by the Rao-Suzuki screw model: slow migration of interstitial jogs along the dislocation core, which could lead to the annihilation of vacancy and interstitial jog pairs by their combination.

BCC complex concentrated alloys↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multimodal fission from self-consistent calculations

When multiple fission modes coexist in a given nucleus, distinct fragment yield distributions appear. Multimodal fission has been observed in a number of fissioning nuclei spanning the nuclear chart, and this phenomenon is expected to affect the nuclear abundances synthesized during the rapid neutron-capture process (𝑟-process). In this study, we generalize the previously proposed hybrid model for fission-fragment yield distributions to predict competing fission modes and estimate the resulting yield distributions. Here, our framework allows for a comprehensive large-scale calculation of fission-fragment yields suited for 𝑟-process nuclear network studies. Nuclear density functional theory is employed to obtain the potential energy and collective inertia tensor on a multidimensional collective space defined by mass multipole moments. Fission pathways and their relative probabilities are determined using the nudged elastic band method. Based on this information, mass and charge fission yields are predicted using the recently developed hybrid model. Fission properties of fermium isotopes are calculated in the axial quadrupole-octupole collective space for three energy density functionals (EDFs). Disagreement between the EDFs appears when multiple fission modes are present. Within our framework, the UNEDF⁢1 HFB EDF agrees best with experimental data. Calculations in the axial quadrupole-octupole-hexadecapole collective space improve the agreement with the experiment for SkM*. We also discuss the sensitivity of fission predictions on the choice of EDF for several superheavy nuclei. Fission-fragment yield predictions for nuclei with multiple fission modes are sensitive to the underlying EDF. For large-scale calculations in which a minimal number of collective coordinates is considered, UNEDF⁢1 HFB provides the best description of experimental data, though the sensitivity motivates robust quantification of the uncertainties of the theoretical model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

LiGa(OTf)(sub 4) as an Electrolyte Salt for Li-Ion Cells

Lithium tetrakis(trifluoromethane sulfo - nato)gallate [abbreviated "LiGa(OTf)4" (wherein "OTf" signifies trifluoro - methanesulfonate)] has been found to be promising as an electrolyte salt for incorporation into both liquid and polymer electrolytes in both rechargeable and non-rechargeable lithium-ion electrochemical cells. This and other ingredients have been investigated in continuing research oriented toward im proving the performances of rechargeable lithium-ion electrochemical cells, especially at low temperatures. This research at earlier stages, and the underlying physical and chemical principles, were reported in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. As described in more detail in those articles, lithiumion cells most commonly contain nonaqueous electrolyte solutions consisting of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) dissolved in mixtures of cyclic and linear alkyl carbonates, including ethylene carbonate (EC), propylene carbonate (PC), dimethyl carbonate (DMC), diethyl carbonate (DEC), and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). Although such LiPF6-based electrolyte solutions are generally highly ionically conductive and electrochemically stable, as needed for good cell performance, there is interest in identifying alternate lithium electrolyte salts that, relative to LiPF6, are more resilient at high temperature and are less expensive. Experiments have been performed on LiGa(OTf)4 as well as on several other candidate lithium salts in pursuit of this interest. As part of these experiments, LiGa(OTf)4 was synthesized by the reaction of Ga(OTf)3 with an equimolar portion of LiOTf in a solvent consisting of anhydrous acetonitrile. Evaporation of the solvent yielded LiGa(OTf)4 as a colorless crystalline solid. The LiGa(OTf)4 and the other salts were incorporated into solutions with PC and DMC. The resulting electrolyte solutions exhibited reasonably high ionic conductivities over a relatively wide temperature range down to 40 C (see figure). In cyclic voltammetry measurements, LiGa(OTf)4 and the other salts exhibited acceptably high electrochemical stability over the relatively wide potential window of 0 to 5 V versus Li+/Li. 13C nuclear-magneticresonance measurements yielded results that suggested that in comparison with the other candidate salts, LiGa(OTf)4 exhibits less ion pairing. Planned further development will include optimization of the salt and solvent contents of such electrolyte solutions and incorporation of LiGa(OTf)4 into gel and solid-state polymer electrolytes. Of the salts, LiGa(OTf)4 is expected to be especially desirable for incorporation into lithium polymer electrolytes, wherein decreased ion pairing is advantageous and the large delocalized anions can exert a plasticizing effect.

Reddy, V. Prakash↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inelastic equation of state for solids

In this study, a complete inelastic equation of state (IEOS) for solids is developed based on a superposition of thermodynamic energy potentials. The IEOS allows for a tensorial stress state by including an isochoric hyperelastic Helmholtz potential in addition to the zero-kelvin isotherm and lattice vibration energy contributions. Inelasticity is introduced through the nonlinear equations of finite strain plasticity which utilize the temperature dependent Johnson–Cook yield model. Material failure is incorporated into the model by a coupling of the damage history variable to the energy potentials. The numerical evaluation of the IEOS requires a nonlinear solution of stress, temperature and history variables associated with elastic trial states for stress and temperature. The model is implemented into the ALEGRA shock and multi-physics code and the applications presented include single element deformation paths, the Taylor anvil problem and an energetically driven thermo-mechanical problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of detection rate changes and correlations on random-coincidence background measurements

Coincidence detection of multiple particles emitted during an experiment can yield a new depth of understanding of the underlying process under study. However, the probability of detecting particles that are generated from the same physical event within a given coincidence time window is generally much lower than that of detecting particles that appear in the same coincidence time window, but were not created from the same physical event, and are therefore detected randomly in coincidence with each other. Thus, accurate and precise methods of measuring this random-coincidence background are essential for a wide variety of fields of science. A method to determine this background directly using the data themselves without any additional experimental run time or fake signals introduced in the data was recently established (O’Donnell, 2016). This method yields a statistical uncertainty on the random-coincidence background that is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the true coincidence data, though the potential for systematic errors of backgrounds from this method was never explored. In this work, we discuss common varieties of correlated and uncorrelated changes in the detection rates of each particle detected in an experiment. Here we demonstrate here that a correlation between particle detection rates from, for example, an incident particle beam that initiates a physical process of interest, creates systematic errors in the random-coincidence background measurement. We also discuss the impact of a variety of other realistic scenarios for rate changes in experiments. Lastly, a method is introduced to correct for errors in the random-coincidence background from any source, yielding an optimization between statistical precision and eliminating potential lingering systematic errors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intercropping kura clover with prairie cordgrass mitigates soil greenhouse gas fluxes

Prairie cordgrass (PCG) ( Spartina pectinata Link) has a high tolerance to soil salinity and waterlogging, therefore, it can thrive on marginal lands. Optimizing the nitrogen (N) input is crucial to achieving desirable biomass production of PCG without negatively impacting the environment. Thus, this study was based on the hypothesis that the use of legumes such as kura clover ( Trifolium ambiguum M. Bieb.) (KC) as an intercrop with PCG can provide extra N to the crop reducing the additional N fertilizer and mitigating soil surface greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specific objective of the study was to assess the impact of PCG managed with different N rates [0 kg N ha -1 (PCG-0N), 75 kg N ha -1 (PCG-75N), 150 kg N ha -1 (PCG-150N), and 225 kg N ha -1 (PCG-255N)], and PCG intercropped with KC (PCG-KC) on GHG fluxes and biomass yield. The experimental site was established in 2010 in South Dakota under a marginally yielding cropland. The GHG fluxes were measured from 2014 through 2018 growing seasons using the static chamber. Net global warming potential (GWP) was calculated. Data showed that cumulative CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes were similar for all the treatments over the study period. However, the PCG-KC, PCG-0N, and PCG-75N recorded lower cumulative N 2 O fluxes (384, 402, and 499 g N ha -1 , respectively) than the PCG-150N (644 g N ha -1 ) and PCG-255N (697 g N ha -1 ). The PCG-KC produced 85% and 39% higher yield than the PCG-0N in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and similar yield to the other treatments (PCG-75N, PCG-150N, and PCG-255N) in these years. Net GWP was 52% lower for the PCG-KC (112.38 kg CO 2 -eq ha -1 ) compared to the PCG-225N (227.78 kg CO 2 -eq ha -1 ), but similar to other treatments. Soil total N was 15%% and 13% higher under PCG-KC (3.7 g kg -1 ) than that under PCG-0N (3.2 g kg -1 ) and PCG-75N (3.3 g kg -1 ), respectively. This study concludes that intercropping prairie cordgrass with kura clover can enhance biomass yield and reduce fertilizer-derived N 2 O emissions and net global warming potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global interfertility and heterosis in sugar kelp populations: a next step in sugar kelp breeding

Abstract The potential of seaweed aquaculture is restricted by high labor, production and processing costs, leading to low economic viability. Selective breeding can improve yields and cultivation efficiency, thereby decreasing production costs. Until now, genetic resources as input for Saccharina latissimabreeding trials have been sourced strictly locally, due to concerns regarding outplanting genetically exogenous material in local waters. Here we study, for the first time, worldwide interregional fertility of the seaweedS. latissima,in order to assess the potential of including globalS. latissimagenetic resources for selective breeding with regard to heterosis. We quantified the yield (as an indicative aquacultural performance) and morphological traits of intra- and interregionalS. latissimahybrids originating from a broad range of locations in a common garden experiment. Our results show that the practical application of worldwideS. latissimagenetic resources in breeding programs is feasible based on global interfertility. We found a wide morphological diversity of hybrids and observed significant heterosis in interregional hybrids. The degree of heterosis could not be linked to geographic distance. These findings reveal that worldwide genetic resources can considerably contribute toS. latissimabreeding programs and could offer a major next step in improving yields and quality traits.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
NASA NTRS1997

Photomorphogenesis, photosynthesis, and seed yield of wheat plants grown under red light-emitting diodes (LEDs) with and without supplemental blue lighting

Red light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are a potential light source for growing plants in spaceflight systems because of their safety, small mass and volume, wavelength specificity, and longevity. Despite these attractive features, red LEDs must satisfy requirements for plant photosynthesis and photomorphogenesis for successful growth and seed yield. To determine the influence of gallium aluminium arsenide (GaAlAs) red LEDs on wheat photomorphogenesis, photosynthesis, and seed yield, wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. 'USU-Super Dwarf') plants were grown under red LEDs and compared to plants grown under daylight fluorescent (white) lamps and red LEDs supplemented with either 1% or 10% blue light from blue fluorescent (BF) lamps. Compared to white light-grown plants, wheat grown under red LEDs alone demonstrated less main culm development during vegetative growth through preanthesis, while showing a longer flag leaf at 40 DAP and greater main culm length at final harvest (70 DAP). As supplemental BF light was increased with red LEDs, shoot dry matter and net leaf photosynthesis rate increased. At final harvest, wheat grown under red LEDs alone displayed fewer subtillers and a lower seed yield compared to plants grown under white light. Wheat grown under red LEDs+10% BF light had comparable shoot dry matter accumulation and seed yield relative to wheat grown under white light. These results indicate that wheat can complete its life cycle under red LEDs alone, but larger plants and greater amounts of seed are produced in the presence of red LEDs supplemented with a quantity of blue light.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2020

A short tutorial on uranium electropolishing

Electropolishing of uranium metal is best performed in a simple aqueous solution of phosphoric acid. With +3 to +10 volts of bias potential applied to the uranium (anode) relative to a Pt counter electrode (cathode). As summarized in a Pourbaix stability diagram, these conditions yield dissolution of the U surface as UOX containing solution species without the possibility of injecting hydrogen into the metal surface. However, if the uranium is biased to negative potentials relative to the counter electrode then water may be reduced at the U surface and hydrogen gas becomes available for reaction with the U metal. The stability diagram may be modified if there are other complexing species present in solution and the potential scale shifted if a different metal is use for the counter electrode. These effects can be understood in a known way as long as solution and electrochemical cell conditions are recognized.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗
DOE OSTI2021

One-pot ethanol production under optimized pretreatment conditions using agave bagasse at high solids loading with low-cost biocompatible protic ionic liquid

Agave bagasse (AG) is a potential bioenergy feedstock due to its high biomass productivity, even in semiarid lands. In particular, ionic liquid (IL) pretreatment using aprotic ILs (AILs) has greatly reduced AG recalcitrance towards downstream processing by lowering lignin content and achieving high sugar yields. However, AIL's low biocompatibility towards enzymes and bacteria combined with the high initial cost has limited further development of this technology. In a wash-free one-pot (OP) ethanol conversion process, the evaluation of AG pretreatment with a biocompatible low-cost protic IL (PIL), 2-hydroxyethylammonium acetate ([2-HEA][OAc]) was achieved, where PIL pretreatment was followed by enzymatic saccharification, then ethanol fermentation in a single vessel. The pretreatment conditions were optimized using a central composite design to enable high sugar conversion at low PIL content. Under optimized pretreatment conditions (160 °C, 60% IL loading and 1.5 h), a yield of 132 kg of ethanol per Ton of untreated biomass was estimated using high solids loading (30% solids loading) under a PIL-OP scheme. High lignin removal (>50%), a decreased cellulose crystallinity, and high glucan conversion (>85%) were achieved with PIL-pretreated AG comparable to yields obtained in an AIL-AG pretreated sample using 1-ethyl-3-methyl-imidazolium acetate ([C 2 C 1 Im][OAc]). Here, these results using [2-HEA][OAc] demonstrate the potential of AG in an OP scheme with improved total ethanol yields paving the way towards a more feasible IL-based biorefinery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Evidence of Gas-Phase Water Splitting on Holmium Nitrogen Oxide Clusters

Preliminary Evidence of Gas-Phase Water Splitting on Holmium Nitrogen Oxide Clusters Christopher A. Zarzana1, Makayla R. Baxter , Introduction: Molecular hydrogen is a potential energy carrier that could be used to help implement a clean energy economy if it is generated from splitting of water. Improvements in the efficiencies of water-splitting electrolyzers relies on development of novel materials with enhanced performance. However, research in this area is slowed due to underdeveloped understanding of the mechanisms of device performance due to challenges interrogating the fundamental chemical reactions at play in bulk materials. Studies of the intrinsic reactivity of clusters that are representative of the reactive sites of these materials can increase understanding of the fundamental reaction mechanisms involved in hydrogen production, allowing for more efficient development of new water-splitting materials. Methods: Holmium tetranitrato ([Ho(NO3)4]-) clusters were generated in gas-phase using the electrospray ionization source of a Bruker (Billerica, MA, USA) micrOTOF-Q II quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Spray solutions consisted of aqueous holmium (Ho) nitrate solutions (at nominally 3 mM) diluted to 30 µM in acetonitrile. The holmium (Ho) tetranitrato clusters were isolated using the quadrupole and were subsequently activated and allowed to react with background water in the collision cell. High resolution, high mass accuracy spectra were recorded using the time-of-flight. Mass accuracy was ensured using external calibration with Agilent (Santa Clara, CA, USA) ESI-L Low Concentration tuning mix. Preliminary data: Collisional activation of the holmium tetranitrato complexes ([Ln(NO3)4]-) resulted in an expected series of ions resulting from the loss of ·NO and ·NO2. This included an ion at m/z = 382.885 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)3]- (theoretical m/z=382.884, error=-1.2 ppm), resulting from loss of ·NO, and an ion at m/z=366.890 assigned as [HoO(NO3)3]- (theorical m/z=366.889, error=-1.8 ppm), resulting from loss of ·NO2. Additional ions were detected that would result from more complicated losses from [Ho(NO3)4]-, including ions at m/z=320.898 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=320.896, error=-4.9 ppm), at m/z=304.904 assigned as [HoO(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=304.901, error=-8.1 ppm, very low signal), and at m/z=288.908 assigned as [Ho(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=288.907, error=-3.4 ppm). This ion series would arise from loss of some combination of ·NO, ·NO2, and ·NO3, although it is not known whether these losses occur sequentially (e.g. loss of ·NO and ·NO3 to yield [HoO2(NO3)2]-) or as a single species (e.g. direct loss of N2O4). These ions were accompanied by a complementary series representing addition of a single water molecule. This included an ion at m/z=338.908 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)2H2O]- (theoretical m/z=338.907, error=-4.1 ppm), an ion at m/z=322.912 assigned as [HoO(NO3)2H2O]- (theoretical m/z=322.912, error=1.2 ppm), and an ion at m/z=306.918 assigned as [Ho(NO3)2H2O]-, (theoretical m/z=306.918, error=-3.7 ppm). An additional hydrated ion was observed at m/z=276.921 assigned as [HoO2(NO3) H2O]- (theoretical m/z=276.919, error=-7.3 ppm), although corresponding dehydrated ion was not observed. An additional ion was observed at m/z=367.898 that has been assigned as [Ho(NO3)3OH]- (theoretical m/z=367.897, error=-2.5 ppm). It is hypothesized that this ion arises from addition of water to [Ho(NO3)3]- followed by elimination of a hydrogen radical. Neither [Ho(NO3)3]- nor [Ho(NO3)3H2O]- were detected, suggesting that, if the hypothesis is correct, addition of water to [Ho(NO3)3]- and its subsequent splitting is rapid. Elimination of HNO3 from [Ho(NO3)4H2O]- could also yield [Ho(NO3)3OH]-; however, no [Ho(NO3)4H2O]- ions were observed. Novelty: Potential evidence of water splitting on gas-phase lanthanide clusters offers a way to study the intrinsic reactivity of hydrogen-generation materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2013

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

DSSAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability of biomass yield and quality in bioenergy supply chain

Abstract Biofuels made from biomass and waste residues will largely contribute to United States’ 2050 decarbonization goal in the aviation sector. While cellulosic biofuels have the potential fuel performance equivalent to petroleum-based jet fuel, the biofuel industry needs to overcome the supply chain barrier caused by temporal and spatial variability of biomass yield and quality. This study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability during biomass supply chain planning via optimization modeling that incorporates 10 years of drought index data, a primary factor contributing to yield and quality variability. The results imply that the cost of delivering biomass to biorefinery may be significantly underestimated if the multi-year temporal and spatial variation in biomass yield and quality is not captured. For long term sustainable biorefinery operations, the industry should optimize supply chain strategy by studying the variability of yield and quality of biomass in their supply sheds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗