Separating signal from combinatorial jets in a high-background environment
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Cybersecurity of smart grids have been topic of much interest in recent years. As this critical infrastructure operation increases dependency on automated processes and controls, exposure to cyber-physical threats become inevitable. Considering cyber-physical security of the grid, much focus of attention has been made towards smart grids real-time monitoring solutions, including the state estimation process. Analyzing the relevant literature, one can note though that seldom research has been done on cyber-physical security of smart grids protection systems. Protection systems have intangible value towards grid reliability. This paper presents a cybersecurity framework for smart grids protection systems. A physics-based inspired machine learning solution is at the core process of the framework. Processed relay inputs and outputs are used by a deep predictive coding network. Formal models, a quasi-static state estimator, provides an oracle when low confidence decision is reached. Evolving knowledge is derived through reinforcement learning. Implementation aspects considering the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Electricity Infrastructure Operations Center are presented. Built as an extra control layer to protection systems, without hard-to-derive parameters, highlights potential aspects towards real-life applications.
Scientific productivity can be enhanced through workflow management tools, relieving large High Performance Computing (HPC) system users from the tedious tasks of scheduling and designing the complex computational execution of scientific applications. This paper presents a study on the usage of ensemble workflow tools to accelerate science using the Summit and Frontier supercomputing systems. The research aims to connect science domain simulations using Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) supercomputing platforms with ensemble workflow methods in order to accelerate HPC-enabled discovery and boost scientific impact. We present the coupling, porting and optimization of Radical-Cybertools on three applications: Chroma, NAMD and LAMMPS. The tools augment traditional HPC monolithic runs with a pilot scheduler. Lessons-learned are discussed for physics, biology and materials science applications. We discuss intrinsic limitations of coupling and porting ensemble workflow tools to applications that run on large HPC systems. The origins of technical challenges and their solutions developed during the implementation process are discussed. Data management strategies, OLCF’s policies for ensembles, and natively supported workflow tools are also summarized.
Abrupt large events in the Alfvenic and sub-Alfvenic frequency bands in tokamaks are typically correlated with increased fast-ion loss. Here, machine learning is used to speed up the laborious process of characterizing the behavior of magnetic perturbations from corresponding frequency spectrograms that are typically identified by humans. The analysis allows for comparison between different mode character (such as quiescent, fixed frequency, and chirping, avalanching) and plasma parameters obtained from the TRANSP code, such as the ratio of the neutral beam injection (NBI) velocity and the Alfven velocity (v_inj./v_A), the q-profile, and the ratio of the neutral beam beta and the total plasma beta (beta_beam,i / beta). In agreement with the previous work by Fredrickson et al., we find a correlation between beta_beam,i and mode character. In addition, previously unknown correlations are found between moments of the spectrograms and mode character. Character transition from quiescent to nonquiescent behavior for magnetic fluctuations in the 50200-kHz frequency band is observed along the boundary v_phi ~ (1/4)(v_inj. - 3v_A), where v_phi is the rotation velocity.
The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.
Focal Area(s): Rather than augment or replace physical models with machine learning, we instead preserve the existing models and augment the underlying code with faster surrogate models created by generative adversarial networks (GAN). To leverage the performance optimization, we also propose a runtime system and user interfaces that allow prediction and tracking of accumulated error as well as dynamic, per-process decision making as to which model (if any) to use for each iteration. Science Challenge: This proposal sits at the nexus of two hard problems. First, climate models based on machine learning will be, by their nature, difficult to trust once their predictions begin diverging from the consensus. Second, compilers and hardware have been making only incremental performance gains for decades. GPGPUs have provided a welcome performance boost for codes that can take advantage of them, but there is no similar technology on the horizon to provide the next performance leap.
New Deep Learning architectures that embed physics as hard constraints with numerical methods, increasing accuracy and reducing computational cost.
The bias-variance tradeoff is a well-recognized phenomenon in statistics and machine learning. In this talk, I will discuss an extension, dubbed the bias-variance-correlation tradeoff. Roughly speaking, as the flexibility of a model decreases, the correlations in the outputs of a trained model for different inputs increases. Such correlations have implications for several applications of machine learning in high energy physics, e.g., the use generative models for event generation. In particular, I will argue that claims in the literature of data amplification by generative models stem from ignoring important correlations between the model's outputs for different inputs.
As a part of the Open Energy Data Initiative, this effort aims to develop and demonstrate novel distribution state estimation, control optimization, and transient analysis as well as provide access to data, data integration, and mapping information. More specifically, the focus of the effort will be on physics-based distribution system state estimation, hybrid (physics-based and machine learning) distribution optimal power flow, and event detection/analysis for solar integration and analytics. This work will enable reproducible, robust, replicable, and generalizable R&D in simulation and emulation of solar system integration. These test models and datasets will provide an integrated library for developing and testing power system operation technologies. To make the library user-friendly, this project will provide data curation tools such as data translators, mapping scripts and APIs, database schemas and metadata, interfaces and user dashboard, source code for the reference algorithms, description of the use-cases/scenarios, and comprehensive information on all the assumptions.
Barren plateau landscapes correspond to gradients that vanish exponentially in the number of qubits. Such landscapes have been demonstrated for variational quantum algorithms and quantum neural networks with either deep circuits or global cost functions. For obvious reasons, it is expected that gradient-based optimizers will be significantly affected by barren plateaus. However, whether or not gradient-free optimizers are impacted is a topic of debate, with some arguing that gradient-free approaches are unaffected by barren plateaus. Here we show that, indeed, gradient-free optimizers do not solve the barren plateau problem. Our main result proves that cost function differences, which are the basis for making decisions in a gradient-free optimization, are exponentially suppressed in a barren plateau. Hence, without exponential precision, gradient-free optimizers will not make progress in the optimization. We numerically confirm this by training in a barren plateau with several gradient-free optimizers (Nelder-Mead, Powell, and COBYLA algorithms), and show that the numbers of shots required in the optimization grows exponentially with the number of qubits.
Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.
We present the RODEM Jet Datasets, a comprehensive collection of simulated large-radius jets designed to support the development and evaluation of machine-learning algorithms in particle physics. These datasets encompass a diverse range of jet sources, including quark/gluon jets, jets from the decay of W bosons, top quarks, and heavy new-physics particles. The datasets provide detailed substructure information, including jet kinematics, constituent kinematics, and track displacement details, enabling a wide range of applications in jet tagging, anomaly detection, and generative modelling.
Big Earth Data are too big to be tractable to simple data inspection and require models to make sense of all the data. Useful models for Big Earth Data may be physical, statistical, or machine learning based. In many cases, hybrid models combine attributes of two or more of these types.
NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.
NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.
The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.
When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS). However, HMC and NUTS can require numerous numerical gradients of the target density and can prove slow in practice. We propose Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) with HMC and NUTS for solving Bayesian inference problems [1, 2]. Once trained, HNNs do not require gradients of the target density while sampling. Moreover, they satisfy important properties such as perfect time reversibility and Hamiltonian conservation, making them well suited for use within HMC and NUTS because stationarity can be shown. We also propose an HNN extension called latent HNNs (L-HNNs), which predict latent variable outputs. Compared to HNNs, L-HNNs offer improved expressivity and a reduction in integration errors. Finally, we propose employing L-HNNs in NUTS with an online error monitoring scheme to prevent degeneracy of the sampling in regions of low probability density. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring by using several example cases involving complex, heavy-tailed, and high local curvature probability densities. Overall, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring satisfactorily inferred these probability densities. Compared to traditional NUTS, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring improved the effective sample size (ESS) per gradient by an order of magnitude.