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At least 865 records · Page 48

Cloud Macroscopic Organization: Order Emerging from Randomness

Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.

Yuan, Tianle↗

A Statistical Analysis of the Accuracy of the Digitized Magnitudes of Photometric Plates on the Timescale of Decades with an Application to the Century-Long Light Curve of KIC 8462852

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the timescale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median rt mean square scatter of light curves of the order of 0.15 magnitude over the range B approximately equal to 9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of less than or equal to 0.2 magnitudes per century (1889–1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC 8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16 magnitudes per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

digitized magnitudes of photometric plates↗

Absence of the plasma sheet at lunar distance during geomagnetically quiet times.

Evaluation of plasma data from the Apollo 14 charge particle lunar environment experiment showing that, contrary to previously published analyses, the plasma sheet does not extend to the lunar orbit with a thickness of 8 earth radii. Two electron spectral types are observed: (1) low-energy photoelectrons with no statistically significant medium and high energy fluxes, and (2) double-peaked medium- and high-energy electrons. The second type is observed either coincident with auroral substorms or at the center of the tail during quiet times. These spectra are one to several orders of magnitude less intense than plasma sheet spectra measured near 20 earth radii.

Burke, W. J.↗

The Lockheed diode array magnetograph

A new magnetograph using a solid state monolithic linear silicon diode array has been constructed at Lockheed Solar Observatory. This magnetograph uses a digital image processor, and makes data available both in digital and analog form. The diode array detector is capable of a signal-to-noise ratio of 2000:1 or better when cooled to a temperature of -40 deg centigrade. Thus, intensity differences of the order of one part in a thousand may easily be detected without signal averaging. This instrument may be considered a prototype for an instrument using a two-dimensional array. The magnetograph is now fully operational, and is being used to produce data for statistical studies of solar magnetic field diffusion.

Smithson, R. C.↗

Relationship between voids and interlaminar shear strength of polymer matrix composites

The effect of voids on the interlaminar shear strength of a polyimide matrix composite system is described. The AS4 graphite/PMR-15 composite was chosen for study because this system can be readily processed by using the standard specified cure cycle to produce void-free composites and because preliminary work in this study had shown that the processing parameters of this resin matrix system can be altered to produce cured composites of varying void contents. Thirty-eight 12-ply unidirectional composite panels were fabricated for this study. A significant range of void contents (0 to 10 percent) was produced. The panels were mapped, ultrasonically inspected, and sectioned into interlaminar shear, flexure, and fiber content specimens. The density of each specimen was measured and interlaminar shear and flexure strength measurements were then made. The fiber content was measured last. The results of these tests were evaluated by using ultrasonic results, photomicrographs, statistical methods, theoretical relationships derived by other investigators, and comparison of the test data with the Integrated Composite Analyzer (ICAN) computer program developed at the Lewis Research Center for predicting composite ply properties. The testing is described in as much detail as possible in order to help others make realistic comparisons.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

Relationship between voids and interlaminar shear strength of polymer matrix composites

The effect of voids on the interlaminar shear strength of a polyimide matrix composite system is described. The AS4 graphite/PMR-15 composite was chosen for study because this system can be readily processed by using the standard specified cure cycle to produce void-free composites and because preliminary work in this study had shown that the processing parameters of this resin matrix system can be altered to produce cured composites of varying void contents. Thirty-eight 12-ply unidirectional composite panels were fabricated for this study. A significant range of void contents (0 to 10 percent) was produced. The panels were mapped, ultrasonically inspected, and sectioned into interlaminar shear, flexure, and fiber content specimens. The density of each specimen was measured and interlaminar shear and flexure strength measurements were then made. The fiber content was measured last. The results of these tests were evaluated by using ultrasonic results, photomicrographs, statistical methods, theoretical relationships derived by other investigations, and comparison of the test data with the Integrated Composite Analyzer (ICAN) computer program developed at the Lewis Research Center for predicting composite ply properties. The testing is described in as much detail as possible in order to help others make realistic comparisons.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

A New Normalized Difference Cloud Retrieval Technique Applied to Landsat Radiances Over the Oklahoma ARM Site

We suggest a new approach to cloud retrieval, using a normalized difference of nadir reflectivities (NDNR) constructed from a non-absorbing and absorbing (with respect to liquid water) wavelength. Using Monte Carlo simulations we show that this quantity has the potential of removing first order scattering effects caused by cloud side illumination and shadowing at oblique Sun angles. Application of the technique to TM (Thematic Mapper) radiance observations from Landsat-5 over the Southern Great Plains site of the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) program gives very similar regional statistics and histograms, but significant differences at the pixel level. NDNR can be also combined with the inverse NIPA (Nonlocal Independent Pixel Approximation) of Marshak (1998) which is applied for the first time on overcast Landsat scene subscenes. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the NIPA-retrieved cloud fields on the parameters of the method and discuss practical issues related to the optimal choice of these parameters.

Orepoulos, Lazaros↗

Use of an Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer to Obtain Sample Powder for CHEMIN, a Combined XRD/XRF Instrument

A miniature CHEMIN XRD/XRF (X-Ray Diffraction/X-Ray Fluourescence) instrument is currently being developed for definitive mineralogic analysis of soils and rocks on Mars. One of the technical issues that must be addressed in order to enable XRD analysis on an extraterrestrial body is how best to obtain a representative sample powder for analysis. For XRD powder diffraction analyses, it is beneficial to have a fine-grained sample to reduce preferred orientation effects and to provide a statistically significant number of crystallites to the X-ray beam. Although a 2-dimensional detector as used in the CHEMIN instrument will produce good results with poorly prepared powders, the quality of the data will improve if the sample is fine-grained and randomly oriented. An Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer (USDC) currently being developed at JPL is an effective mechanism of sampling rock to produce cores and powdered cuttings. It requires low axial load (< 5N) and thus offers significant advantages for operation from lightweight platforms and in low gravity environments. The USDC is lightweight (<0.5kg), and can be driven at low power (<5W) using duty cycling. It consists of an actuator with a piezoelectric stack, ultrasonic horn, free-mass, and drill bit. The stack is driven with a 20 kHz AC voltage at resonance. The strain generated by the piezoelectric is amplified by the horn by a factor of up to 10 times the displacement amplitude. The tip impacts the free-mass and drives it into the drill bit in a hammering action. The free-mass rebounds to interact with the horn tip leading to a cyclic rebound at frequencies in the range of 60-1000 Hz. It does not require lubricants, drilling fluid or bit sharpening and it has the potential to operate at high and low temperatures using a suitable choice of piezoelectric material. To assess whether the powder from an ultrasonic drill would be adequate for analyses by an XRD/XRF spectrometer such as CHEMIN, powders obtained from the JPL ultrasonic drill were analyzed and the results were compared to carefully prepared powders obtained using a laboratory bench scale Retsch mill.

Chipera, S. J.↗

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth s magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the ZGSE direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth's magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the Z(sub GSE) direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗

Real-time Identification and Control of Satellite Signal Impairments Solution and Application of the Stratonovich Equation Part 1. Theoretical Development

As satellite communications systems become both more complex and reliant with respect to their operating environment, it has become imperative to be able to identify, during real-time operation, the onset of one or more impairments to the quality of overall communications system integrity. One of the most important aspects to monitor of a satellite link operating within the Earth's atmosphere is the signal fading due to the occurrence of rain and/or phase scintillations. This, of course, must be done in the presence of the associated measurement uncertainty or potentially faulty measurement equipment such as in the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) experiment. In the present work, an approach originally suggested in 1991, and apparently still considered iconoclastic, will be significantly developed and applied to the satellite communications link on which the deleterious composite signal fade is the result of one or many component fade mechanisms. Through the measurement (with the attendant uncertainty or 'error' in the measurement) of such a composite fading satellite signal, it is desired to extract the level of each of the individual fading mechanisms so they can be appropriately mitigated before they impact the overall performance of the communications network. Rather than employing simple-minded deterministic filtering to the real-time fading, the present approach is built around all the models and/or descriptions used to describe the individual fade components, including their dynamic evolution. The latter is usually given by a first-order Langevin equation. This circumstance allows the description of the associated temporal transition probability densities of each of the component processes. By using this description, along with the real-time measurements of the composite fade (along with the measurement errors), one can obtain statistical estimates of the levels of each of the component fading mechanisms as well as their predicted values into the future. This is all accomplished by the use of the well-known Stratonovich integro-differential equation that results from the model of the measured signal fade that is also tailored to adaptively adjust the values of the parameters used in the statistical models of the individual fade mechanisms. Three examples of increasing complexity are addressed and solved for the iterative determination of fade component levels from the measured composite signal fade in the presence of measurement error and, in the last case, with uncertainty in the model parameters.

Countermeasure↗

Wrinkle Ridges on Mercury and the Moon Within and Outside of Mascons

Found on all terrestrial planets, wrinkle ridges are anticlines formed by thrust faulting and folding resulting from crustal shortening. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft's orbital phase returned high resolution images and topographic data of the previously unimaged northern high latitudes of Mercury where there are large expanses of smooth plains deformed by wrinkle ridges. Concurrently, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is obtaining high resolution images and topographic data covering lunar mare wrinkle ridges. These data allow quantitative comparison of the scale of wrinkle ridges in smooth plains volcanic units on Mercury with mare wrinkle ridges. We evaluate the topographic relief of 300 wrinkle ridges within and outside of mascon basins on the Moon and Mercury. Measured wrinkle ridges range from ~112 to 776 m in relief with a mean of ~350 m (median = ~340 m, n = 150) on Mercury and from ~47 to 678 m in relief with a mean of ~198 m (median = ~168 m, n = 150) on the Moon. Wrinkle ridges on Mercury thus are approximately twice as large in mean relief compared to their counterparts on the Moon. The larger scale of Mercury's wrinkle ridges suggests that their formation can be attributed, in part, to global contraction. As global contraction on the Moon is estimated to be an order of magnitude smaller than on Mercury, the smaller scale of lunar wrinkle ridges suggests they most likely form primarily by load induced subsidence of the mare basalt. Wrinkle ridges located in lunar mascon basins and in the Caloris mascon on Mercury are not statistically significantly different in relief than ridges in non-mascon regions, suggesting comparable levels of contractional strain. The fact that mascon basins do not host wrinkle ridges with greater structural relief relative to non-mascon units may indicate the critical role lithospheric thickness plays in controlling subsidence and contraction of thick volcanic sequences on the Moon and Mercury.

Global contraction↗

Wrinkle ridges on Mercury and the Moon within and outside of mascons

Found on all terrestrial planets, wrinkle ridges are anticlines formed by thrust faulting and folding resulting from crustal shortening. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER)spacecraft's orbital phase returned high resolution images and topographic data of the previously unimaged northern high latitudes of Mercury where there are large expanses of smooth plains deformed by wrinkle ridges. Concurrently, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is obtaining high resolution images and topographic data covering lunar mare wrinkle ridges. These data allow quantitative comparison of the scale of wrinkle ridges in smooth plains volcanic units on Mercury with mare wrinkle ridges. We evaluate the topographic relief of 300 wrinkle ridges within and outside of mascon basins on the Moon and Mercury. Measured wrinkle ridges range from ~112 to 776 min relief with a mean of ~350m (median=~340m, n=150) on Mercury and from ~47 to 678 min relief with a mean of ~198 m (median=~168m, n=150) on the Moon. Wrinkle ridges on Mercury thus are approximately twice as large in mean relief compared to their counterparts on the Moon. The larger scale of Mercury's wrinkle ridges suggests that their formation can be attributed, in part, to global contraction. As global contraction on the Moon is estimated to be an order of magnitude smaller than on Mercury, the smaller scale of lunar wrinkle ridges suggests they most likely form primarily by load induced subsidence of the mare basalt. Wrinkle ridges located in lunar mascon basins and in the Caloris mascon on Mercury are not statistically significantly different in relief than ridges in non-mascon regions, suggesting comparable levels of contractional strain. The fact that mascon basins do not host wrinkle ridges with greater structural relief relative to non-mascon units may indicate the critical role lithospheric thickness plays in controlling subsidence and contraction of thick volcanic sequences on the Moon and Mercury.

Lisa S. Schleicher↗

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Over, Thomas, M.↗

Fluid Physics in a Fluctuating Acceleration Environment

Our program of research aims at developing a stochastic description of the residual acceleration field onboard spacecraft (g-jitter) to describe in quantitative detail its effect on fluid motion. Our main premise is that such a statistical description is necessary in those cases in which the characteristic time scales of the process under investigation are long compared with the correlation time of g-jitter. Although a clear separation between time scales makes this approach feasible, there remain several difficulties of practical nature: (i), g-jitter time series are not statistically stationary but rather show definite dependences on factors such as active or rest crew periods; (ii), it is very difficult to extract reliably the low frequency range of the power spectrum of the acceleration field. This range controls the magnitude of diffusive processes; and (iii), models used to date are Gaussian, but there is evidence that large amplitude disturbances occur much more frequently than a Gaussian distribution would predict. The lack of stationarity does not constitute a severe limitation in practice, since the intensity of the stochastic components changes very slowly during space missions (perhaps over times of the order of hours). A separate analysis of large amplitude disturbances has not been undertaken yet, but it does not seem difficult a priori to devise models that may describe this range better than a Gaussian distribution. The effect of low frequency components, on the other hand, is more difficult to ascertain, partly due to the difficulty associated with measuring them, and partly because they may be indistinguishable from slowly changing averages. This latter effect is further complicated by the lack of statistical stationarity of the time series. Recent work has focused on the effect of stochastic modulation on the onset of oscillatory instabilities as an example of resonant interaction between the driving acceleration and normal modes of the system, and on cavity flow as an example of how an oscillatory response under periodic driving becomes diffusive if the forcing is random instead. This paper describes three different topics that illustrate behavior that is peculiar to a stochastic acceleration field. In the first case, we show that g-jitter can induce effective attractive or repulsive forces between a pair of spherical particles that are suspended in an incompressible fluid of different density provided that the momentum diffusion length is larger than the interparticle separation (as in the case in most colloidal suspensions). Second, a stochastic modulation of the control parameter in the vicinity of a pitchfork or supercritical bifurcation is known not to affect the location of the threshold. We show, however, that resonance between the modulation and linearly stable modes close to onset can lead to a shift in threshold. Finally, we discuss the classical problem of vorticity diffusion away from a plane boundary that is being vibrated along its own plane. Periodic motion with zero average vorticity production results in an exponential decay of the vorticity away from the boundary. Random vibration, on the other hand, results in power law decay away from the boundary even if vorticity production averages to zero.

Drolet, Francois↗

Autocorrelation in Landsat data

Many computer algorithms for the analysis of Landsat data have a statistical basis which requires that the observations comprise independent samples. Four distinct methods are employed to show that this assumption commonly is not fulfilled for these data. Each leads to a similar conclusion; the data must be sampled no closer than every 10th pixel in order to yield independent estimators. The implications of this are illustrated with a simple example.

Craig, R. G.↗

Inverse problems: Fuzzy representation of uncertainty generates a regularization

In many applied problems (geophysics, medicine, and astronomy) we cannot directly measure the values x(t) of the desired physical quantity x in different moments of time, so we measure some related quantity y(t), and then we try to reconstruct the desired values x(t). This problem is often ill-posed in the sense that two essentially different functions x(t) are consistent with the same measurement results. So, in order to get a reasonable reconstruction, we must have some additional prior information about the desired function x(t). Methods that use this information to choose x(t) from the set of all possible solutions are called regularization methods. In some cases, we know the statistical characteristics both of x(t) and of the measurement errors, so we can apply statistical filtering methods (well-developed since the invention of a Wiener filter). In some situations, we know the properties of the desired process, e.g., we know that the derivative of x(t) is limited by some number delta, etc. In this case, we can apply standard regularization techniques (e.g., Tikhonov's regularization). In many cases, however, we have only uncertain knowledge about the values of x(t), about the rate with which the values of x(t) can change, and about the measurement errors. In these cases, usually one of the existing regularization methods is applied. There exist several heuristics that choose such a method. The problem with these heuristics is that they often lead to choosing different methods, and these methods lead to different functions x(t). Therefore, the results x(t) of applying these heuristic methods are often unreliable. We show that if we use fuzzy logic to describe this uncertainty, then we automatically arrive at a unique regularization method, whose parameters are uniquely determined by the experts knowledge. Although we start with the fuzzy description, but the resulting regularization turns out to be quite crisp.

Kreinovich, V.↗