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At least 865 records · Page 48

Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model

For this study, a high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

US East Coast synthetic aperture radar wind atlas for offshore wind energy

We present the first synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offshore wind atlas of the US East Coast from Georgia to the Canadian border. Images from RADARSAT-1, Envisat, and Sentinel-1A/B are processed to wind maps using the geophysical model function (GMF) CMOD5.N. Extensive comparisons with 6008 collocated buoy observations of the wind speed reveal that biases of the individual systems range from -0.8 to 0.6 m s -1 . Unbiased wind retrievals are crucial for producing an accurate wind atlas, and intercalibration of the SAR observations is therefore applied. Wind retrievals from the intercalibrated SAR observations show biases in the range of to -0.2 to 0.0 m s -1 , while at the same time improving the root-mean-squared error from 1.67 to 1.46 m s -1 . The intercalibrated SAR observations are, for the first time, aggregated to create a wind atlas at the height 10 m a.s.l. (above sea level). The SAR wind atlas is used as a reference to study wind resources derived from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK), which is based on 7 years of modelling output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Comparisons focus on the spatial variation in wind resources and show that model outputs lead to lower coastal wind speed gradients than those derived from SAR. Areas designated for offshore wind development by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management are investigated in more detail; the wind resources in terms of the mean wind speed show spatial variations within each designated area between 0.3 and 0.5 m s -1 for SAR and less than 0.2m s -1 for the WTK. Our findings indicate that wind speed gradients and variations might be underestimated in mesoscale model outputs along the US East Coast.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. In this study, we provide the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solid organic-coated ammonium sulfate particles at high relative humidity in the summertime Arctic atmosphere

The ability of atmospheric aerosols to impact climate through water uptake and cloud formation is fundamentally determined by the size, composition, and phase (liquid, semisolid, or solid) of individual particles. Particle phase is dependent on atmospheric conditions (relative humidity and temperature) and chemical composition and, importantly, solid particles can inhibit the uptake of water and other trace gases, even under humid conditions. Particles composed primarily of ammonium sulfate are presumed to be liquid at the relative humidities (67 to 98%) and temperatures (–2 to 4 °C) of the summertime Arctic. Under these atmospheric conditions, we report the observation of solid organic-coated ammonium sulfate particles representing 30% of particles, by number, in a key size range (<0.2 µm) for cloud activation within marine air masses from the Arctic Ocean at Utqiagvik, AK. The composition and size of the observed particles are consistent with recent Arctic modeling and observational results showing new particle formation and growth from dimethylsulfide oxidation to form sulfuric acid, reaction with ammonia, and condensation of marine biogenic sulfate and highly oxygenated organic molecules. Aqueous sulfate particles typically undergo efflorescence and solidify at relative humidities of less than 34%. Therefore, the observed solid phase is hypothesized to occur from contact efflorescence during collision of a newly formed Aitken mode sulfate particle with an organic-coated ammonium sulfate particle. With declining sea ice in the warming Arctic, this particle source is expected to increase with increasing open water and marine biogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Path Forward for Marine Energy

Today's marine energy industry is at an exciting turning point. Companies are testing out their early-stage prototypes - designed to harness the clean energy in ocean and river waves, currents, and tides - in their first open-water trials. But while such trials are a necessary step toward commercialization, they can come with high costs and risk if the deployments do not go as planned.

data modeling↗

Multi-decade high-resolution regional hindcasts for wave energy resource characterization in U.S. coastal waters

Long-term, high-resolution, regional wave hindcast datasets were generated using unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models for the U.S. coastal waters to support nearshore wave energy development in the U.S. including those bordering U.S. territorial islands. The model domains resolved the entire U.S. exclusive economic zones, with a spatial resolution of approximately 200 m nearshore. The regional SWAN models were driven by the global WAVEWATCH III® model outputs and run for a 42-year period from 1979 to 2020. Extensive model validations were performed using buoy observations and altimeter data. Regional resource characterization was performed based on hindcast data points at 2 km from shore and along the 100 m isobath. Aggregations of wave resource parameters were produced, and spatial and seasonal variations were analyzed for all the regions. Wave resource metrics recommended by international standards, including a 3-hour time series of six resource parameters, hourly frequency- and directionally resolved wave spectra at selected “virtual buoy” locations, and average-annual values of omni-directional wave power, significant wave height, and energy period are publicly disseminated through an Amazon Web Service and a Marine Energy Atlas web application tool to facilitate wave energy research and a wide range of coastal ocean applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Delayed coastal inundations caused by ocean dynamics post-Hurricane Matthew

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the large spatial impact of the post-hurricane oceanic forcing, the coastal hazards are not limited to a direct hit from a hurricane but can be detected throughout the USSC where the oceanic processes reach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The potential role of organics in new particle formation and initial growth in the remote tropical upper troposphere

Abstract. Global observations and model studies indicate that new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere (UT) and subsequent particles supply 40 %–60 % of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere, thus affecting the Earth's radiative budget. There are several plausible nucleation mechanisms and precursor species in this atmospheric region, which, in the absence of observational constraints, lead to uncertainties in modeled aerosols. In particular, the type of nucleation mechanism and concentrations of nucleation precursors, in part, determine the spatial distribution of new particles and resulting spatial distribution of CCN from this source. Although substantial advances in understanding NPF have been made in recent years, NPF processes in the UT in pristine marine regions are still poorly understood and are inadequately represented in global models. Here, we evaluate commonly used and state-of-the-art NPF schemes in a Lagrangian box model to assess which schemes and precursor concentrations best reproduce detailed in situ observations. Using measurements of aerosol size distributions (0.003 < Dp < 4.8 µm) in the remote marine troposphere between ∼0.18 and 13 km altitude obtained during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, we show that high concentrations of newly formed particles in the tropical UT over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are associated with outflow regions of deep convective clouds. We focus analysis on observations over the remote Pacific Ocean, which is a region less perturbed by continental emissions than the Atlantic. Comparing aerosol size distribution measurements over the remote Pacific with box model simulations for 32 cases shows that none of the NPF schemes most commonly used in global models, including binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (neutral and ion-assisted) and ternary involving sulfuric acid, water, and ammonia, are consistent with observations, regardless of precursor concentrations. Through sensitivity studies, we find that the nucleation scheme among those tested that is able to explain most consistently (21 of 32 cases) the observed size distributions is that of Riccobono et al. (2014), which involves both organic species and sulfuric acid. The method of Dunne et al. (2016), involving charged sulfuric acid–water–ammonia nucleation, when coupled with organic growth of the nucleated particles, was most consistent with the observations for 5 of 32 cases. Similarly, the neutral sulfuric acid–water–ammonia method of Napari (2002), when scaled with a tuning factor and with organic growth added, was most consistent for 6 of 32 cases. We find that to best reproduce both nucleation and growth rates, the mixing ratios of gas-phase organic precursors generally need to be at least twice that of SO2, a proxy for dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Unfortunately, we have no information on the nature of oxidized organic species that participated in NPF in this region. Global models rarely include organic-driven nucleation and growth pathways in UT conditions where globally significant NPF takes place, which may result in poor estimates of NPF and CCN abundance and contribute to uncertainties in aerosol–cloud–radiation effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that the organic aerosol precursor vapors may be important in the tropical UT above marine regions, a finding that should guide future observational efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mantle–melt partitioning of the highly siderophile elements: New results and application to Mars

Trace elements and extant and extinct isotopic attributes in Martian meteorites have been used to argue that Mars accreted quickly, differentiated into core and mantle, and established several mantle reservoirs, possibly within 10 Ma of T0. The partitioning of trace elements in the deep mantle has been relatively unstudied, despite the need for such knowledge in understanding magma ocean crystallization and the origin of depleted and enriched mantle reservoirs. The siderophile element composition of the Martian mantle and lithophile isotopic systems such as Sr, Hf, and Nd are thought to record evidence for early metal–silicate equilibrium and deep magma ocean at an intermediate depth and pressure of 800 km or 14 GPa. We have carried out experiments across this pressure range to better understand the mineral/melt partitioning of a wide range of elements. These new data are used to evaluate differentiation models for Mars and to help interpret the available isotopic data. The relatively incompatible nature of Re compared to mildly compatible Os means that the crystallization of a deep magma ocean will lead to residual liquids with superchondritic Re/Os, and solids with subchondritic Re/Os. Such material available in the mantle could be the source of enriched isotopic reservoir that produced shergottites with +γOs values. Slightly subchondritic Re/Os ratios in the crystallizing solids would provide a reservoir that could produce -γOs values. Finally, melting of mixtures of these two enriched and depleted endmembers could explain the Nd-Os isotopic correlations and systematics of shergottites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NREL Data, Modeling, and Tools Empower Marine Energy Analysis

NREL performs R&D and economic analyses to drive and empower the development of wave energy and tidal, ocean, and river current energy technologies. These technologies deliver renewable electricity to the grid and provide energy solutions that support the evolving "blue economy."

HYDRO ENERGY↗

Editorial: Advances in Ocean Bottom Seismology

Among the physical sciences, seismology is relatively young; with the continued advances in instrumental technologies and computer capacity, ours has to be one of the most rapidly evolving subject areas within the Earth Sciences writ large. Exploration of the Earth by way of seismic observation and modeling is expanding not only in the range of capabilities - from reservoir scale to whole-Earth sensing - but in recent decades seismology has resolutely marched from the Earth’s continents and sea shores into the oceans, which cover nearly 75% of the Earth and have until recently hindered our ability to more fully explore the planet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Organic sulfur from source to sink in low‐sulfate Lake Superior

Abstract Organic sulfur plays a crucial role in the biogeochemistry of aquatic sediments, especially in low sulfate (< 500 μ M) environments like freshwater lakes and the Earth's early oceans. To better understand organic sulfur cycling in these systems, we followed organic sulfur in the sulfate‐poor (< 40 μ M) iron‐rich (30–80 μ M) sediments of Lake Superior from source to sink. We identified microbial populations with shotgun metagenomic sequencing and characterized geochemical species in porewater and solid phases. In anoxic sediments, we found an active sulfur cycle fueled primarily by oxidized organic sulfur. Sediment incubations indicated a microbial capacity to hydrolyze sulfonates, sulfate esters, and sulfonic acids to sulfate. Gene abundances for dissimilatory sulfate reduction ( dsrAB ) increased with depth and coincided with sulfide maxima. Despite these indicators of sulfide formation, sulfide concentrations remain low (< 40 nM) due to both pyritization and organic matter sulfurization. Immediately below the oxycline, pyrite accounted for 13% of total sedimentary sulfur. Both free and intact lipids in this same interval accumulated disulfides, indicating rapid sulfurization even at low concentrations of sulfide. Our investigation revealed a new model of sulfur cycling in a low‐sulfate environment that likely extends to other modern lakes and possibly the ancient ocean, with organic sulfur both fueling sulfate reduction and consuming the resultant sulfide.

Phillips, Alexandra A.↗

TEAMER: Crossflow Turbine Fairing Geometry Optimization - Report and CFD Modeling Files

The dataset includes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models and simulation files for crossflow turbines as well as a detailed project report. The report documents the project undertaken by the Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC) to design and optimize a modular fairing for the Modular RivGen Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine, which enhances the efficient deployment and operation of turbine arrays. The project focused on optimizing the hydrodynamic performance of the fairing using CFD, with an emphasis on two key geometric parameters: the fairing's cross-sectional shape and the spacing between the rotor and the fairing. The analysis aimed to maximize net power output while also assessing discretized loading to evaluate ultimate and fatigue loads on the turbine components. The numerical modeling was conducted using both the commercial CFD software Star-CCM+ and the open-source code openFOAM, with the latter utilizing the actuator line library, turbinesFOAM. This dual-code approach was intended to increase confidence in the results and demonstrate the viability of using open-source tools for high-fidelity marine energy modeling. This dataset includes all necessary files for actuator line simulations in openFOAM, as well as 2D blade-resolved CFD results, along with Python and Java scripts for setting up and post-processing simulations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗

Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates the Department of Energy’s (DOE) only dedicated marine laboratory at the PNNL-Sequim campus. PNNL is leading research in the blue economy and marine energy applications and building collaboration between DOE and multiple partners in the state of Washington and beyond. With Washington State support, the Integrated Renewable Energy System (IRES) demonstration testbed proposed here will advance research by developing and testing renewable energy production, management, and use for multiple marine applications (e.g., ocean observations, underwater vehicles, aquaculture). It will also advance energy resiliency for coastal communities by developing an integrated renewable energy test platform that will model how multiple renewable energy resources could power shoreline businesses or communities (Figure 1). The test bed will demonstrate how different renewable systems can be integrated to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to a net zero emissions site and provide lessons, controls, and protocols that will help to expand energy options for shoreline and maritime businesses. The integrated system is expected to serve as a test bed for shoreline power and ocean energy technologies for years to come.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamics of Gas Bubbles From a Submarine Hydrocarbon Seep Within the Hydrate Stability Zone

We validate a new model for mass transfer and bubble transport for natural seeps on the continental margins using an integrated observation of a seep at 883 m in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In the model, mass transfer is assumed to transition from clean to dirty bubble mass transfer rates following a characteristic hydrate formation time that depends on the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate subcooling. We show that buoyancy-induced upwelling is negligible for the bubble stream. We initialize the model using precise data observed at the seafloor and validate the model results to optical and acoustic measurements within the bubble stream. The model accurately predicts the acoustic attenuation of the bubble flare by lateral spreading and bubble shrinkage throughout the water column. In conclusion, the model shows that up to 99.4% by mass of the released gases from this seep dissolves into the ocean within the hydrate stability zone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗