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A daily climatology of the atmospheric circulation of the Arctic and the associated cloud conditions were determined. These are used for comparisons with the variability of general circulation model, generated circulation, and cloud cover for the same region.
This study focuses on ocean surface fluxes, mainly the latent heat flux, and their impact on MJO propagation and associated precipitation structures over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model is used to simulate two MJO events during the 2017-2018 season: the December 10 - January 20, 2017 case, which maintained its strong precipitation signal over the Maritime Continent, and the March 1 - 20, 2018 case, which was weaker and did not propagate through the Maritime Continent. Both simulated MJO events show positive biases in surface rainfall compared with GPM IMERG data. During the MJO suppressed phase, the simulations rain more often than the observations. During the active phase, the westward propagating precipitation structures are more organized and much stronger compared with the observations, sometimes forming westward propagating cyclones that weakened the eastward precipitation signals. Two aspects of the surface flux interactions are investigated: the impact of the domain mean surface fluxes, and the impact of storm scale circulations and their interactions with local surface fluxes. Both aspects affect water vapor budget, atmosphere instability and mean flow, through which convection initiation, organization, and propagation are influenced. Model sensitivity tests with different radiation, microphysics, PBL schemes and nudging schemes indicate that in the control simulations, higher SST and surface fluxes, especially during the suppressed period, are the main reason of rainfall overestimation compared with IMERG data. The strong westward propagating signals are caused by both increased atmosphere instability and reduced mean wind shear. Unfortunately, the small differences in mean SST and surface fluxes between different model sensitivity tests are all within the satellite observation error margin, and cannot be directly corroborated by observations. One of the advantages of CYGNSS satellites is that they observe ocean surface wind and heat fluxes underneath strong rainfall events such as the convective systems associated with MJO active phases. Currently we are comparing CYGNSS level 2 surface fluxes retrievals and the model simulations in order to better understand the second aspect of the MJO and surface fluxes interactions, and how this affects MJO strengths and propagations. The interactive atmosphere-ocean-wave model also provides cases that directly comparing satellite observables (the bistatic radar cross section) and the model simulations (through CYGNSS satellite simulator). These discrepancies are more prominent in coupled ocean simulations, mainly due to higher SST and enhanced surface fluxes.
Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.
This report is a revision of the document Observation Model and Parameter Partials for the JPL VLBI Parameter Estimation Software 'MODEST'---1991, dated August 1, 1991. It supersedes that document and its four previous versions (1983, 1985, 1986, and 1987). A number of aspects of the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) model were improved from 1991 to 1994. Treatment of tidal effects is extended to model the effects of ocean tides on universal time and polar motion (UTPM), including a default model for nearly diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tidal UTPM variations, and partial derivatives for all (solid and ocean) tidal UTPM amplitudes. The time-honored 'K(sub 1) correction' for solid earth tides has been extended to include analogous frequency-dependent response of five tidal components. Partials of ocean loading amplitudes are now supplied. The Zhu-Mathews-Oceans-Anisotropy (ZMOA) 1990-2 and Kinoshita-Souchay models of nutation are now two of the modeling choices to replace the increasingly inadequate 1980 International Astronomical Union (IAU) nutation series. A rudimentary model of antenna thermal expansion is provided. Two more troposphere mapping functions have been added to the repertoire. Finally, corrections among VLBI observations via the model of Treuhaft and lanyi improve modeling of the dynamic troposphere. A number of minor misprints in Rev. 4 have been corrected.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed.
The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamic regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A fresh water ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger vs. smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.
An equivalent layer magnetization model for Australia and adjacent oceanic areas is presented. The model is obtained by linear inversion of Magsat anomaly data measured in the altitude range 325-550 km. The anomaly data set has been isolated from the raw data set by use of models of the core field and very long wavelength external fields, and is internally consistent. Certain major structural features of the Australian continent are geographically associated with magnetization anomalies. A first-order difference is seen between the Tasman Zone and the Precambrian cratonic areas: magnetization anomalies are much more subdued in the former, possibly reflecting a shallowing of the Curie isotherm within the crust. A profile of the vertical integral of magnetization is presented for a crustal section extending from the Gawler Block to the southeast coast. It is shown that the magnetization variations are probably due partly, but not wholly, to depth to Curie isotherm variations; gross magnetization variations among at least three distinct crustal units must be involved.
A 2D numerical model with a space grid of about 14 km is applied to calculate diurnal tidal constituents K(1) and O(1) in the Arctic Ocean. Calculated corange and cotidal charts show that along the continental slope, local regions of increased sea level amplitude, highly variable phase and enhanced currents occur. It is shown that in these local regions, shelf waves (topographic waves) of tidal origin are generated. In the Arctic Ocean and Northern Atlantic Ocean more than 30 regions of enhanced currents are identified. To prove the near-resonant interaction of the diurnal tides with the local bottom topography, the natural periods of oscillations for all regions have been calculated. The flux of energy averaged over the tidal period depicts the gyres of semitrapped energy, suggesting that the shelf waves are partially trapped over the irregularities of the bottom topography. It is shown that the occurrence of near-resonance phenomenon changes the energy flow in the tidal waves. First, the flux of energy from the astronomical sources is amplified in the shelf wave regions, and afterwards the tidal energy is strongly dissipated in the same regions.
An analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio of the best gravity field available shows that a basis exists for the recovery of the dominant parameters of the quasi-stationary sea surface topography. Results obtained from the analysis of GEOS-3 show that it is feasible to recover the quasi-stationary dynamic sea surface topography as a function of wavelength. The gravity field models required for synoptic ocean circulation modeling are less exacting in that constituents affecting radial components of orbital position need not be known through shorter wavelengths.
There is obvious value in developing the means for measuring a number of subsurface oceanographic parameters using remotely sensed ocean color data. The first step in this effort should be the development of adequate theoretical models relating the desired oceanographic parameters to the upwelling radiances to be observed. A portion of a contributory theoretical model can be described by a modified single scattering approach based on a simple treatment of multiple scattering. The resulting quasisingle scattering model can be used to predict the upwelling distribution of spectral radiance emerging from the sea. The shape of the radiance spectrum predicted by this model for clear ocean water shows encouraging agreement with measurements made at the edge of the Sargasso Sea off Cape Hatteras.
The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.
The focus of the work funded under this proposal is the exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and between the troposphere and the blaspheme. These two interfaces represent the frontiers of atmospheric chemistry. It is the combination of exchange processes at both interfaces that ultimately controls how the blaspheme (including human activities) affects the ozone layer. The modeling work was motivated by and attempts to integrate information obtained by aircraft, spacecraft, shuttle and oceanic measurements. The model development and research activities accomplished in the past three years provide a technical and intellectual basis for the research in this group. The innovative part of our research program is related to the IAV of ozone and the hydrological cycle. Other related but independently supported work include the study of isotopic fractionation of atmospheric species, e.g., N2O and CO2. Our theory suggests that we now have the ability to probe the middle atmosphere at a level of sensitivity where subtle details such as the isotopic composition of simple molecules can yield measurable systematic effects. This creates the possibility for probing the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere using all of the N2O and CO2 isotopologues. In the following we will briefly describe the model development and review the highlights of recent accomplishments.
Marine oxygen plays a fundamental role in regulating the transfer of organic carbon and nutrients to their dissolved inorganic forms, serving as the terminal electron acceptor for heterotrophic respiration. Oxygen can become limiting to these processes in coastal and open-ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). The maintenance of ODZs depends on the balance between physical processes such as ventilation and biogeochemical processes such as remineralization. These two processes act in opposing directions on ODZs, with ventilation responsible for transporting oxygen from the surface, where it is near saturation with the partial pressure of O2 in the atmosphere, to deeper oxygen-depleted layers, and remineralization acting to consume oxygen through biogeochemical processes such as microbial degradation throughout the water column. Remineralization is represented in all CMIP6 models, but the actual parameterizations, as well as their magnitude, are widely varying. In this study, we examine the sensitivity to remineralization of the equatorial Pacific ODZ O2 ol/kg) in a model; the NASA GISS Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM-G) embedded in the NASA-GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. We find that increasing the remineralization rate shoals the ODZ onset depth (i.e. the regionally averaged upper bound of the ODZ), and decreases ODZ volume and regional-averaged thickness. Changes in biological consumption and vertical convergence of oxygen are identified as the primary contributors to changes in ODZ onset depth. ODZ thickness is mainly influenced by the shoaling of the bottom boundary of the ODZ, which decreases with maximum remineralization rate due to decreasing oxygen consumption and increasing horizontal oxygen convergence in deep waters. On the other hand, vertically-averaged ODZ area has a more complex, non-monotonic relationship with maximum remineralization rate. While these findings suggest an important role for remineralization in determining the shape of the ODZ in our model, the relative importance of remineralization vs. other physical parameterizations remains to be established. While our results reflect the structure of our ocean biogeochemical model, the relationship of remineralization to ODZ characteristics in other models should be examined to better inform model inter-comparisons.
Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.
The OPTOMA (Ocean Prediction Through Observation, Modeling and Analysis) program is developing an ocean descriptive-predictive system for four-dimensional data assimilation. It is presently concerned with the mesoscale variability in the California Current System (CCS). The present paper has the objective to assess the relationship of surface temperature structure to subsurface temperature structure and flow fields. Surface temperature anomalies are related to the mesoscale horizontal advective and subsurface mass fields. The cool anomaly off northern California in summer 1982 is discussed, taking into account the temperature structure along transects, T-S variations and inferred water masses, variation of horizontal temperature patterns with depth, and synoptic information from IR data.
This study introduces space-based ocean and atmospheric profiling lidar for improving modeling and understanding of ocean carbon cycle. Unique measurements from space-based profiling lidars include (1) the global ocean surface mean square slope measurements for improving air-sea turbulence exchange estimates; (2) the backscatter and beam attenuation measurements for improving the global estimate of partial pressure of CO2 of the ocean with the reduction of uncertainties in primary productivity estimates. Global statistics of CALIOP integrated ocean subsurface backscatter measurements of coastal waters will be presented. The study will also assess the impact of CALIOP on the uncertainty reduction of primary productivity and the improvement of CO2 partial pressure estimates. Ocean surface roughness statistics, its applications in air-sea interaction and its comparisons with other measurements will also be presented
The hydrologic cycle is a major part of the global climate system. There is an atmospheric flux of water from the ocean surface to the continents. The cycle is closed by return flow in rivers. In this paper a river routing model is developed to use with grid box climate models for the whole earth. The routing model needs an algorithm for the river mass flow and a river direction file, which has been compiled for 4 deg x 5 deg and 2 deg x 2.5 deg resolutions. River basins are defined by the direction files. The river flow leaving each grid box depends on river and lake mass, downstream distance, and an effective flow speed that depends on topography. As input the routing model uses monthly land source runoff from a 5-yr simulation of the NASA/GISS atmospheric climate model (Hansen et al.). The land source runoff from the 4 deg x 5 deg resolution model is quartered onto a 2 deg x 2.5 deg grid, and the effect of grid resolution is examined. Monthly flow at the mouth of the world's major rivers is compared with observations, and a global error function for river flow is used to evaluate the routing model and its sensitivity to physical parameters. Three basinwide parameters are introduced: the river length weighted by source runoff, the turnover rate, and the basinwide speed. Although the values of these parameters depend on the resolution at which the rivers are defined, the values should converge as the grid resolution becomes finer. When the routing scheme described here is coupled with a climate model's source runoff, it provides the basis for closing the hydrologic cycle in coupled atmosphere-ocean models by realistically allowing water to return to the ocean at the correct location and with the proper magnitude and timing.
The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.