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Lessons from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Accident in the Gulf of Mexico
The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) accident in the Gulf of Mexico had many unique aspects to it not seen in previous marine spills. Indeed, research related to the DWH response phase, Natural Resource Damage Assessment, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), National Academy of Sciences, US agencies: NOAA, EPA, Fish & Wildlife, DOE, and Coast Guard have made this the most studied marine oil spill in the world. There are many oil biodegradation lessons learned from this experience and these will undoubtedly continue for many years.
Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida
Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.
Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition
This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.
Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures
At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min .
Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment
Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.
Improving coastal water level estimation by merging nadir-only satellite altimetry data into a hydrodynamic model
Providing robust real time flood warnings is of paramount importance to coastal communities. Although state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models are capable of robustly predicting Coastal Water Levels (CWL), unresolved drivers affecting level fluctuations are often not represented by the model governing equations. This work evaluates a novel method to improve the performance of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model by assimilating observations from four nadir-only satellite altimetry missions against a set of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gauge stations located across the entire U.S. East Coast. Two different types of simulations were performed – Open Loop (OL) and Data Assimilation (DA). Five different simulations were performed where four different satellite altimetry observations were assimilated individually and combined with two different scenarios – with and without considering the data quality flags. Results indicate that, despite their limited spatial coverage, merging nadir-only observations into ADCIRC from the newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT)’s nadir altimeter can improve the model performance at 76% of the gauge locations, whereas Sentinel-6 improves 73% of the total locations, Jason-3 74%, and SARAL 21%. Furthermore, combining observations from SWOT-nadir, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 can improve the ADCIRC performance at more than 80% of the gauge locations for 107-day simulation. Nadir-only satellite altimetry observations can be useful for improving the model performance even if flagged as “poor quality” near the coast. When the flagged data are disregarded, SWOT can improve ADCIRC at 78%, Sentinel-6 at 73%, Jason-3 at 53%, and SARAL at 21% of the gauge locations. The ability to improve the model simulations largely depends on the availability of a satellite overpass nearby. Therefore, model performance can be further enhanced if satellite observations are available during a storm surge event, stressing the importance of frequent satellite overpasses.
Correlating real-world incidents with vessel traffic off the coast of Hawaii, 2017–2020
Abstract Objectives Because of the high-risk nature of emergencies and illegal activities at sea, it is critical that algorithms designed to detect anomalies from maritime traffic data be robust. However, there exist no publicly available maritime traffic data sets with real-world expert-labeled anomalies. As a result, most anomaly detection algorithms for maritime traffic are validated without ground truth. Data description We introduce the HawaiiCoast_GT data set, the first ever publicly available automatic identification system (AIS) data set with a large corresponding set of true anomalous incidents. This data set—cleaned and curated from raw Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) automatic identification system (AIS) data—covers Hawaii’s coastal waters for four years (2017–2020) and contains 88,749,176 AIS points for a total of 2622 unique vessels. This includes 208 labeled tracks corresponding to 154 rigorously documented real-world incidents.
New Directions: GEIA’s 2020 Vision for Better Air Emissions Information
We are witnessing a crucial change in how we quantify and understand emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, with an increasing demand for science-based transparent emissions information produced by robust community efforts. Today’s scientific capabilities, with near-real-time in-situ and remote sensing observations combined with forward and inverse models and a better understanding of the controlling processes, are contributing to this transformation and providing new approaches to derive, verify, and forecast emissions (Tong et al., 2011; Frost et al., 2012) and to quantify their impacts on the environment (e.g., Bond et al., 2013). At the same time, the needs for emissions information and the demands for their accuracy and consistency have grown. Changing economies, demographics, agricultural practices, and energy sources, along with mandates to evaluate emissions mitigation efforts, demonstrate compliance with legislation, and verify treaties, are leading to new challenges in emissions understanding. To quote NOAA Senior Technical Scientist David Fahey, "We are in the Century of Accountability. Emissions information is critical not only for environmental science and decision-making, but also as an instrument of foreign policy and international diplomacy." Emissions quantification represents a key step in explaining observed variability and trends in atmospheric composition and in attributing these observed changes to their causes. Accurate emissions data are necessary to identify feasible controls that reduce adverse impacts associated with air quality and climate and to track the success of implemented policies. To progress further, the international community must improve the understanding of drivers and contributing factors to emissions, and it must strengthen connections among and within different scientific disciplines that characterize our environment and entities that protect the environment and influence further emissions. The Global Emissions InitiAtive, GEIA (http://www.geiacenter.org/), is a center for emissions information exchange and competence building created in 1990 in response to the need for high quality global emissions data (Graedel et al., 1993). While the past two decades have seen considerable progress in developing, improving and assessing emission estimates, emissions continue to be a major contributor to overall uncertainty in atmospheric model simulations. Moving forward, GEIA aims to help build emissions knowledge in a rapidly evolving society by: 1) enhancing understanding, quantification, and analysis of emissions processes; 2) improving access to emissions information; and 3) strengthening the community of emissions groups involved in research, assessment, operations, regulation and policy.
Sea-surface temperature in relation to air temperature in the Gulf of St. Lawrence: Interdecadal variability and long term trends
Monthly average sea-surface temperatures (SST) derived from NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data are analyzed for the period 1982–2011 for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada) and compared to monthly average air temperature. Results show that SST increased by 1 to 1.5 °C during the period when averaging from May to November of each year, a change associated with interdecadal variability rather than a long term trend. SST averaged over the ice-free months of May–November is strongly correlated to an index of the April–November air temperature anomaly, capturing up to 90% of the variance, suggesting strong coupling between air and sea-surface temperatures on seasonal time scales. The air temperature anomaly index series can be used as a proxy for longer term climate variability of SST prior to 1982. Overall warming trends in air temperature of 0.9 °C and 0.6 °C per century were found using data from weather stations dating back to 1873 and from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis that goes back to 1871. The strong co-variations of SST and air temperature indicate that the SST has likely increased by a similar amount. These co-variations will help to predict the response of the Gulf water temperature to changing climate as well as provide a perspective with respect to changes that have occurred in the previous century.
Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets
This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Fast neutron background characterization with the Radiological Multi-sensor Analysis Platform (RadMAP)
In an effort to characterize the fast neutron radiation background, 16 EJ-309 liquid scintillator cells were installed in the Radiological Multi-sensor Analysis Platform (RadMAP) to collect data in the San Francisco Bay Area. Each fast neutron event was associated with specific weather metrics (pressure, temperature, absolute humidity) and GPS coordinates. Furthermore, the expected exponential dependence of the fast neutron count rate on atmospheric pressure was demonstrated and event rates were subsequently adjusted given the measured pressure at the time of detection. Pressure adjusted data was also used to investigate the influence of other environmental conditions on the neutron background rate. Using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) coastal area lidar data, an algorithm was implemented to approximate sky-view factors (the total fraction of visible sky) for points along RadMAPs route. In the three areas we analyzed, San Francisco, Downtown Oakland, and Berkeley, all demonstrated a suppression in the background rate of over 50% for the range of sky-view factors measured. This effect, which is due to the shielding of cosmic-ray produced neutrons by surrounding buildings, was comparable to the pressure influence which yielded a 32% suppression in the count rate over the range of pressures measured.
Total Water Level Prediction at Continental Scale: Coastal Ocean
We demonstrate recent progress made in the simulation of total water level (TWL) at continental scale, using the coastal ocean of US East Coast/Gulf of Mexico coast as an example. A key difference between the continental-scale and small-scale modeling is that the former requires a more accurate vertical datum. Using a geoid-based datum (xGEOID20b), a satellite altimetry product, and a state-of-the-art 3D unstructured-grid model, we significantly improve the accuracy for TWL both near- and off-shore. The average root-mean-square error at all NOAA stations is 14 cm. The non-tidal signals are found to be sensitive to the representation of a large-scale current system near the boundary and extending the domain extent to accommodate this system improves these signals.
A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat
The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.
Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland
Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) andmethane (CH 4 ) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO 2 uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH 4 emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH 4 emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m –2 year –1 . In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO 2 changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m –2 year –1 to a source of 369.6 gCm –2 year –1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH 4 and the sink strength of CO 2 . Here, we conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH 4 fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.
Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)
The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.
Imprint of Anthropogenic Sources and Soil Removal on the Surface Concentration of H2 in the Contiguous US
Hydrogen (H2) is experiencing renewed interest throughout the world as a low carbon fuel alternative or complement to fossil fuels. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the environmental impact of increasing H2 usage, in part due to gaps in our understanding of the H2 atmospheric budget, including the H2 release from industrial activities and the H2 soil removal, the most important sink of H2. This study focuses on H2 dry air mole fractions measured by the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory in discrete ambient air samples collected every few days at sites located in the contiguous United States between 2010 and 2022. We take advantage of the long-term observations from this network to study the regional distribution of H2 sources using the potential source contribution function (PSCF). We find that H2 PSCF is consistent with a large anthropogenic source of atmospheric H2 from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuel. However, episodic air masses with high H2 dry air mole fractions (>700 ppb) recorded at some sampling locations in the Western and Southeastern US are not associated with elevated CO, suggesting significant noncombustion anthropogenic or geological sources of H2. Air masses depleted in H2 are recorded in rural or remote continental sites. Our analysis of observations from a tall tower in NE Colorado suggests that the degree of H2 depletion not only reflects differences in soil exposure but also the regional inhibition of the soil sink under arid conditions.
PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt
Here, this work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm–time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross–energy, –L–shell, and –pitch–angle coherence associated with wave–electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low–Earth–orbits (LEOs), and provides high–fidelity nowcast (multiple–hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L–shells between 2.8–7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1–day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event–specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long–term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, this new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next–generation LEO space infrastructure.