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NASA NTRS2007

Use of AIRS, OMI, MLS, and TES Data in Assessing Forest Ecosystem Exposure to Ozone

Ground-level ozone at high levels poses health threats to exposed flora and fauna, including negative impacts to human health. While concern is common regarding depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, portions of the urban and rural United States periodically have high ambient levels of tropospheric ozone on the ground. Ozone pollution can cause a variety of impacts to susceptible vegetation (e.g., Ponderosa and Jeffrey pine species in the southwestern United States), such as stunted growth, alteration of growth form, needle or leaf chlorosis, and impaired ability to withstand drought-induced water stress. In addition, Southern Californian forests with high ozone exposures have been recently subject to multiyear droughts that have led to extensive forest overstory mortality from insect outbreaks and increased incidence of wildfires. Residual forests in these impacted areas may be more vulnerable to high ozone exposures and to other forest threats than ever before. NASA sensors collect a wealth of atmospheric data that have been used recently for mapping and monitoring regional tropospheric ozone levels. AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder), and TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) data could be used to assess forest ecosystem exposure to ozone. Such NASA data hold promise for providing better or at least complementary synoptic information on ground-level ozone levels that Federal agency partners can use to assess forest health trends and to mitigate the threats as needed in compliance with Federal laws and mandates. NASA data products on ozone concentrations may be able to aid applications of DSTs (decision support tools) adopted by the USDA FS (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service) and by the NPS (National Park Service), such as the Ozone Calculator, in which ground ozone estimates are employed to assess ozone impacts to forested vegetation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Developing New Coastal Forest Restoration Products Based on Landsat, ASTER, and MODIS Data

This paper discusses an ongoing effort to develop new geospatial information products for aiding coastal forest restoration and conservation efforts in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi. This project employs Landsat, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data in conjunction with airborne elevation data to compute coastal forest cover type maps and change detection products. Improved forest mapping products are needed to aid coastal forest restoration and management efforts of State and Federal agencies in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) region. In particular, such products may aid coastal forest land acquisition and conservation easement procurements. This region's forests are often disturbed and subjected to multiple biotic and abiotic threats, including subsidence, salt water intrusion, hurricanes, sea-level rise, insect-induced defoliation and mortality, altered hydrology, wildfire, and conversion to non-forest land use. In some cases, such forest disturbance has led to forest loss or loss of regeneration capacity. In response, a case study was conducted to assess and demonstrate the potential of satellite remote sensing products for improving forest type maps and for assessing forest change over the last 25 years. Change detection products are needed for assessing risks for specific priority coastal forest types, such as live oak and baldcypress-dominated forest. Preliminary results indicate Landsat time series data are capable of generating the needed forest type and change detection products. Useful classifications were obtained using 2 strategies: 1) general forest classification based on use of 3 seasons of Landsat data from the same year; and 2) classification of specific forest types of concern using a single date of Landsat data in which a given targeted type is spectrally distinct compared to adjacent forested cover. When available, ASTER data was useful as a complement to Landsat data. Elevation data helped to define areas in which targeted forest types occur, such as live oak forests on natural levees. MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series data aided visual assessments of coastal forest damage and recovery from hurricanes. Landsat change detection products enabled change to be identified at the stand level and at 10- year intervals with the earliest date preceding available change detection products from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the U.S. Geological Survey. Additional work is being done in collaboration with State and Federal agency partners in a follow-on NASA ROSES project to refine and validate these new, promising products. The products from the ROSES project will be available for aiding NGOM coastal forest restoration and conservation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Influence of European Pollution on Ozone in the Near East and Northern Africa

We present a modeling study of the long-range transport of pollution from Europe, showing that European emissions regularly elevate surface ozone by as much as 20 ppbv in summer in northern Africa and the Near East. European emissions cause 50-150 additional violations per year (i.e. above those that would occur without European pollution) of the European health standard for ozone (8-h average greater than 120 micrograms per cubic meters or approximately 60 ppbv) in northern Africa and the Near East. We estimate that European ozone pollution is responsible for 50 000 premature mortalities globally each year, of which the majority occurs outside of Europe itself, including 37% (19 000) in northern Africa and the Near East. Much of the pollution from Europe is exported southward at low altitudes in summer to the Mediterranean Sea, northern Africa and the Near East, regions with favorable photochemical environments for ozone production. Our results suggest that assessments of the human health benefits of reducing ozone precursor emissions in Europe should include effects outside of Europe, and that comprehensive planning to improve air quality in northern Africa and the Near East likely needs to address European emissions.

Duncan, B. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Collaborative Resource Allocation

Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗
NASA NTRS2009

Space Radiation and Exploration - Information for the Augustine Committee Review

Space radiation presents significant health risks including mortality for Exploration missions: a) Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions are distinct from radiation that occurs on Earth leading to different biological impacts. b) Large uncertainties in GCR risk projections impact ability to design and assess mitigation approaches and select crew. c) Solar Proton Events (SPEs) require new operational and shielding approaches and new biological data on risks. Risk estimates are changing as new scientific knowledge is gained: a) Research on biological effects of space radiation show qualitative and quantitative differences with X- or gamma-rays. b) Expert recommendations and regulatory policy are changing. c) New knowledge leads to changes in estimates for the number of days in space to stay below Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS).

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring 2009 Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States, Based on Near-Real Time and Historical MODIS 250 Meter NDVI Products

This case study shows the promise of computing current season forest disturbance detection products at regional to CONUS scales. Use of the eMODIS expedited product enabled a NRT CONUS forest disturbance detection product, a requirement for an eventual, operational forest threat EWS. The 2009 classification product from this study can be used to quantify the areal extent of forest disturbance across CONUS, although a quantitative accuracy assessment still needs to be completed. However, the results would not include disturbances that occurred after July 27, such as the Station Fire. While not shown here, the project also produced maximum NDVI products for the June 10-July 27 period of each year of the 2000-2009 time frame. These products could be applied to compute forest change products on an annual basis. GIS could then be used to assess disturbance persistence. Such follow-on work could lead to attribution of year in which a disturbance occurred. These products (e.g., Figures 6 and 7) may also be useful for assessing forest change associated with climate change, such as carbon losses from bark beetle-induced forest mortality in the Western United States. Other MODIS phenological products are being assessed for aiding forest monitoring needs of the EWS, including cumulative NDVI products (Figure 10).

Spruce, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

Soebiyanto, Radina P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Combining Epidemiologic Information Across Space Agencies

Space flight is a very unique occupational exposure with potential hazards that are not fully understood. A limited number of individuals have experienced the exposures incurred during space flight, and epidemiologic research would benefit from shared information across space agencies. However, data sharing can be problematic due to agency protection policies for personally identifiable information as well as medical records. Compliance with these protocols in the astronaut population is particularly difficult given the small, high-profile population under study. Creativity in combining data is necessary in order to overcome these difficulties and improve statistical power in research. This study presents methods in meta-analysis that may be used to combine non-attributable data across space agencies so that meaningful conclusions may be drawn about study interests. Methods for combining epidemiologic data across space agencies are presented, and the processes are demonstrated using life-time mortality data in U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. This proof of concept was found to be an acceptable way of sharing data across agencies, and will be used in the future as more relevant research interests are identified.

Minard, Charles G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Organ Dose Assessment and Evaluation of Cancer Risk on Mars Surface

Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated on the surface of Mars using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. To account for the radiation transmission through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor. To describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance on the Mars surface at each elevation, the directional cosine distribution is implemented. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is then coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Finally, cancer risks for astronauts exploring Mars can be assessed by applying the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model with the resultant organ dose estimates. Variations of organ doses and cancer risk quantities on the surface of Mars, which are due to a 16-km elevation range between the Tharsis Montes and the Hellas impact basin, are visualized on the global topography of Mars measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. It is found that cancer incidence risks are about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for male and female astronauts and in breast cancer for female astronauts. The number of safe days, defined by the upper 95% percent confidence level to be below cancer limits, on Mars is analyzed for several Mars mission design scenarios.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS2004

Extraterrestrial Hemorrhage Control: Terrestrial Developments in Technique, Technology, and Philosophy with Applicability to Traumatic Hemorrhage in Space

Managing injury and illness during long duration space flight limits efforts to explore beyond low earths orbit. Traumatic injury may be expected to occur in space and is a frequent cause of preventable deaths, often related to uncontrolled or ongoing hemorrhage (H). Such bleeding causes 40% of terrestrial injury mortality. Current guidelines emphasize early control of H compared to intravenous infusions. Recent advances in surgical and critical care may be applicable to trauma care in space, with appropriate considerations of the extreme logistical and personnel limitations. Methods: Recent developments in technique, resuscitation fluids, hemoglobin (Hb) substitutes, hemostatic agents, interventional angiography, damage control principles, and concepts related to suspended animation were reviewed. Results: H associated with instability frequently requires definitive intervention. Direct pressure should be applied to all compressible bleeding, but novel approaches are required for intracavitary noncompressible bleeding. Intravenous hemostatic agents such as recombinant Factor VII may facilitate hemostasis especially when combined with a controlled hypotension approach. Both open and laparoscopic techniques could be used in weightlessness, but require technical expertise not likely to be available. Specific rehearsed invasive techniques such as laparotomy with packing, or arterial catherterization with with robotic intravascular embolization might be considered . Hemodynamic support, thermal manipulation, or pharmacologic induction of a state of metabolic down regulation for whole body preservation may be appropriate. Hypertonic saline, with or without dextran, may temporize vascular support and decrease reperfusion injury, with less mass than other solutions. Hb substitutes have other theoretical advantages. Conclusions: Terrestrial developments suggest potential novel strategies to control H in space, but will required a coordinated program of evaluation and training to evaluate.

Kirkpatrick, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2003

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radio-Adaptive Responses of Mouse Myocardiocytes

One of the most significant occupational hazards to an astronaut is the frequent exposure to radiation. Commonly associated with increased risk for cancer related morbidity and mortality, radiation is also known to increase the risk for cardiovascular related disorders including: pericarditis, hypertension, and heart failure. It is believed that these radiation-induced disorders are a result of abnormal tissue remodeling. It is unknown whether radiation exposure promotes remodeling through fibrotic changes alone or in combination with programmed cell death. Furthermore, it is not known whether it is possible to mitigate the hazardous effects of radiation exposure. As such, we assessed the expression and mechanisms of radiation-induced tissue remodeling and potential radio-adaptive responses of p53-mediated apoptosis and fibrosis pathways along with markers for oxidative stress and inflammation in mice myocardium. 7 week old, male, C57Bl/6 mice were exposed to 6Gy (H) or 5cGy followed 24hr later with 6Gy (LH) Cs-137 gamma radiation. Mice were sacrificed and their hearts extirpated 4, 24, or 72hr after final irradiation. Real Time - Polymerase Chain Reaction was used to evaluate target genes. Pro-apoptotic genes Bad and Bax, pro-cell survival genes Bcl2 and Bcl2l2, fibrosis gene Vegfa, and oxidative stress genes Sod2 and GPx4 showed a reduced fold regulation change (Bad,-6.18; Bax,-6.94; Bcl2,-5.09; Bcl2l2,-4.03; Vegfa, -11.84; Sod2,-5.97; GPx4*,-28.72; * = Bonferroni adjusted p-value . 0.003) 4hr after H, but not after 4hr LH when compared to control. Other p53-mediated apoptosis genes Casp3, Casp9, Trp53, and Myc exhibited down-regulation but did not achieve a notable level of significance 4hr after H. 24hr after H, genetic down-regulation was no longer present compared to 24hr control. These data suggest a general reduction in genetic expression 4hrs after a high dose of gamma radiation. However, pre-exposure to 5cGy gamma radiation appears to facilitate a radio-adaptive response that mitigates the reduction in genetic expression associated with single high-dose gamma radiation exposure. This radio-adaptive response may serve as a potential countermeasure to radiation-induced myocardial remodeling and preserve the cardiovascular health of astronauts; thus, reducing the risks of human space exploration.

Seawright, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. This FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each forest change product in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composite NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 years and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables disturbance anomaly phenology to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service maintained by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. The FCAV EWS has been used to aid multiple Federal and State agency forest management activities, including aerial disturbance detection surveys, as well as rapid response preliminary assessments of timber loss due to tornadoes, regional drought studies, and fire damage assessments. The FCAV allows end-users to assess the context of apparent forest vegetation change with respect to ancillary data, such as land cover, topography, hydrology, climate variables, and administrative boundaries. Such change products are being evaluated through case studies involving comparison with higher spatial resolution satellite, aerial, and field data. The presentation will include multiple examples in which regionally evident forest disturbances were successfully detected and monitored with the MODIS-based change products, as part of the FCAV. FCAV's MODIS forest change products enable end-users (e.g., resource managers) to monitor forest hazards at regional scales throughout the year and across the nation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗