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At least 865 records · Page 48

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DOE OSTI2022

A positive feedback loop involving the Spa2 SHD domain contributes to focal polarization

Focal polarization is necessary for finely arranged cell-cell interactions. The yeast mating projection, with its punctate polarisome, is a good model system for this process. We explored the critical role of the polarisome scaffold protein Spa2 during yeast mating with a hypothesis motivated by mathematical modeling and tested by in vivo experiments. Our simulations predicted that two positive feedback loops generate focal polarization, including a novel feedback pathway involving the N-terminal domain of Spa2. We characterized the latter using loss-of-function and gain-of-function mutants. The N-terminal region contains a Spa2 Homology Domain (SHD) which is conserved from yeast to humans, and when mutated largely reproduced the spa2Δ phenotype. Our work together with published data show that the SHD domain recruits Msb3/4 that stimulates Sec4-mediated transport of Bud6 to the polarisome. There, Bud6 activates Bni1-catalyzed actin cable formation, recruiting more Spa2 and completing the positive feedback loop. We demonstrate that disrupting this loop at any point results in morphological defects. Gain-of-function perturbations partially restored focal polarization in a spa2 loss-of-function mutant without restoring localization of upstream components, thus supporting the pathway order. Thus, we have collected data consistent with a novel positive feedback loop that contributes to focal polarization during pheromone-induced polarization in yeast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Artificial spin ice: Paths forward

Artificial spin ice systems are lithographically prepared arrays of interacting nanoscale magnetic moments with collective behavior resulting from the chosen array geometry. These many-body systems are unusual in that their simple constituent elements can be configured to design their interactions with exquisite control. They can then be probed experimentally over a remarkably large range of time scales and length scales, including imaging of the individual moments. The study of artificial spin ice has broadened well beyond the original focus on systems with connection to spin ice and ice models, and now the term is used in reference to many other structures that exhibit a much wider range of physical phenomena. Here in this perspective, we review progress in the field of artificial spin ice since its inception more than a decade ago. We then discuss prospects for future directions – continuing the exploration of nanomagnetism, statistical spin models, and the potential for technological devices.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detecting and Characterizing Fracture Zones Using a Convolutional Neural Network

This project directly supports the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) objectives outlined in the Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) by advancing two key research areas: “Exploration and Characterization” and “Data, Modeling, and Analysis.” This project has successfully demonstrated a pre-drilling ability to image and characterize the distribution and connectivity of subsurface faults and fractures, key parameters for identifying permeable pathways that enable geothermal fluids to circulate and produce energy. Specifically, we developed and implemented innovative machine learning methodologies to enhance geothermal exploration. Large-scale faults were detected using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), while small-scale fractures were characterized using a novel Double-Beam Neural Network (DBNN). These tools have proven both technically effective and cost-efficient by reducing reliance on expensive exploratory drilling. Through collaboration with our geothermal industry partner, this research has significantly advanced techniques for identifying hidden geothermal systems and extending the productive lifespan of existing geothermal fields. We applied our methods to two geothermal fields—Soda Lake (Nevada) and Lightning Dock (New Mexico)—to identify shallow steam-charged fracture zones and characterize deep faults at depths of 1.5-2 km. The steam zone identified at the Soda Lake geothermal field showed excellent agreement with prior drilling data, validating the effectiveness of our approaches. In addition, the analysis revealed three new prospective drilling targets for further development and verification. The outcomes of this project improve our scientific understanding of geothermal reservoir behavior, enhance exploration efficiency, extend the economic life of existing geothermal plants. Ultimately, these advancements contribute to GTO’s goal of achieving more sustainable, affordable, and data-driven geothermal energy development across the United States.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Anisotropic Porosity on Heat Transfer and Off-Gassing during Biomass Pyrolysis

The pore structure of biogenic materials imbues the ability to deliver water and nutrients through a plant from root to leaf. This anisotropic pore granularity can also play a significant role in processes such as biomass pyrolysis that are used to convert these materials into useful products like heat, fuel, and chemicals. Evolutions in modeling of biomass pyrolysis as well as imaging of pore structures allow for further insights into the concerted physics of phase change-induced off-gassing, heat transfer, and chemical reactions. In this work, we report a biomass single particle model which incorporates these physics to explore the impact of implementing anisotropic permeability and diffusivity on the conversion time and yields predicted for pyrolysis of oak and pine particles. Simulation results showed that anisotropic permeability impacts predicted conversion time more than 2 times when the Biot number is above 0.1 and pyrolysis numbers (Py 1 , Py 2 ) are less than 20. Pore structure significantly impacts predicted pyrolytic conversion time (>8 times) when the Biot number is above 1 and the pyrolysis number is below 1, i.e., the “conduction controlled” regime. Therefore, these nondimensional numbers reflect that when internal heat conduction limits pyrolysis performance, internal pyrolysis off-gassing further retards effective heat transfer rates as a closely coupled phenomenon. Overall, this study highlights physically meaningful opportunities to improve particle-scale pyrolysis modeling and experimental validation relevant to a variety of feedstock identities and preparations, guiding the future design of pyrolyzers for efficient biomass conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Competing magnetic states in transition metal dichalcogenide moiré materials

Small-twist-angle transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) heterobilayers develop isolated flat moiré bands that are approximately described by triangular lattice generalized Hubbard models. In this paper we explore the metallic and insulating states that appear under different control conditions at a density of one electron per moiré period and the transitions between them. By combining fully self-consistent Hartree-Fock theory calculations with strong-coupling expansions around the atomic limit, we identify four different magnetic states and one nonmagnetic state near the model phase diagram’s metal-insulator phase transition line. Here, ferromagnetic insulating states, stabilized by nonlocal direct exchange interactions, are surprisingly prominent.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Status of the Proton EDM Experiment (pEDM)

The Proton EDM Experiment (pEDM) is the first direct search for the proton electric dipole moment (EDM) with the aim of being the first experiment to probe the Standard Model (SM) prediction of any particle EDM. Phase-I of pEDM will achieve $10^{-29} e\cdot$cm, improving current indirect limits by four orders of magnitude. This will establish a new standard of precision in nucleon EDM searches and offer a unique sensitivity to better understand the Strong CP problem. The experiment is ideally positioned to explore physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), with sensitivity to axionic dark matter via the signal of an oscillating proton EDM and across a wide mass range of BSM models from $\mathcal{O}(1\text{GeV})$ to $\mathcal{O}(10^3\text{TeV})$. Utilizing the frozen-spin technique in a highly symmetric storage ring that leverages existing infrastructure at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), pEDM builds upon the technological foundation and experimental expertise of the highly successful Muon $g$$-$$2$ Experiments. With significant R&D and prototyping already underway, pEDM is preparing a conceptual design report (CDR) to offer a cost-effective, high-impact path to discovering new sources of CP violation and advancing our understanding of fundamental physics. It will play a vital role in complementing the physics goals of the next-generation collider while simultaneously contributing to sustaining particle physics research and training early-career researchers during gaps between major collider operations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of environmental phenomena on maximum pit size predictions in marine environments

Maximum pit sizes were predicted for dilute and concentrated NaCl and MgCl 2 solutions as well as sea-salt brine solutions corresponding to 40% relative humidity (RH) (MgCl 2 -rich) and 76% RH (NaCl-rich) at 25 °C. A quantitative method was developed to capture the effects of various cathode evolution phenomena including precipitation and dehydration reactions. Additionally, the sensitivity of the model to input parameters was explored. Despite one's intuition, the highest chloride concentration (roughly 10.3 M Cl – ) did not produce the largest predicted pit size as the ohmic drop was more severe in concentrated MgCl 2 solutions. Therefore, the largest predicted pits were calculated for saturated NaCl (roughly 5 M Cl – ). Next, it was determined that pit size predictions are most sensitive to model input parameters for concentrated brines. However, when the effects of cathodic reactions on brine chemistry are considered, the sensitivity to input parameters is decreased. Although there was not one main input parameter that influenced pit size predictions, two main categories were identified. Under similar chloride concentrations (similar RH), the water layer thickness (WL), and pit stability product, (i · x) sf , are the most influential factors. When varying chloride concentrations (RH), changes in WL, the brine specific cathodic kinetics on the external surface (captured in the equivalent current density (i eq )), and conductivity (k o ) are the most influential parameters. Finally, it was noted that dehydration reactions coupled with precipitation in the cathode will have the largest effect on predicted pit size, and cause the most significant inhibition of corrosion damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Natural anomaly mediation from the landscape with implications for LHC SUSY searches

Supersymmetric models with the anomaly-mediated supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking (AMSB) form for soft SUSY breaking terms arise in two different settings: (1) extra-dimensional models where SUSY breaking occurs in a sequestered sector, and (2) 4 − d models with dynamical SUSY breaking in a hidden sector where scalars gain masses of order the gravitino mass m 3 / 2 , but gaugino masses and trilinear soft terms are assumed to be of the AMSB form. Both models run into serious conflicts with (1) LHC sparticle and Higgs mass constraints, (2) constraints from winolike weakly interacting massive particle dark matter searches, and (3) bounds from naturalness. These conflicts may be avoided by introducing minor changes to the underlying phenomenological models consisting of nonuniversal bulk scalar Higgs masses and A terms, providing a setting for natural anomaly mediation (nAMSB). In nAMSB, the wino is still expected to be the lightest of the gauginos, but the Higgsinos are expected to be the lightest electroweakinos (EWinos) in accord with naturalness. We examine what sorts of spectra are expected to emerge when nAMSB arises from a string landscape setting: While model 2 can only be natural for a Higgs mass m h ≲ 123 GeV , model 1 can accommodate naturalness along with m h ∼ 125 GeV while still respecting LHC bounds on sparticle masses. We explore the LHC phenomenology of nAMSB models where we find that for Higgsino pair production, typically larger dilepton mass gaps arise from the soft dilepton-plus-jets signature than in models with gaugino mass unification. For wino-pair production, the higher m 3 / 2 portion of nAMSB parameter space is excluded by recent LHC bounds from gaugino pair production searches. We characterize the dominant LHC signatures arising from the remaining lower m 3 / 2 ∼ 90 – 200 TeV range of parameter space, which should be fully testable at high-luminosity LHC via EWino pair production searches. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Misuse Detection for a Generalized SFR Test Reactor

Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) present unique challenges for international safeguards. SFRs possess neutron physics characteristics that if configured appropriately could produce more fissile material than consumed. An adversary state may choose to build an SFR, justified by a lack of domestic natural uranium and limited access or interest to procuring uranium from international markets. Once constructed, the state may choose to misuse the SFR for the purpose of diverting fissile plutonium from declared operation. This work shows that a demonstration SFR does not need to be configured as a plutonium breeder to create one Significant Quantity (SQ) of plutonium in a short amount of time (e.g., one to few years). However, such an extreme case of misuse would change the core reactivity in such a way as to be easily indicated by deviations of control rod position compared to declared operation. In this work a contrived SFR demonstration reactor was modeled for the purpose of exploring proliferation scenarios and how such misuse could be detected using the SFR's Reactor Data Acquisition System (RDAS). Typically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) does not have access to the control rod position, power, thermal, pressure sensing and indicating systems of nuclear power plants. However, this work shows that such data streams can be compared against a parallel detailed simulation model (a Digital Twin) to detect possible misuse.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons, jets, and low missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The results of a search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons and jets, targeting a phase space region with low missing transverse momentum ( p T miss ), are reported. The study is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . As LHC results continue to constrain the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model, the low p T miss regime is increasingly valuable to explore. To estimate the backgrounds due to standard model processes in such events, we apply corrections derived from simulation to an estimate based on a control selection in data. The results are interpreted in the context of simplified stealth supersymmetry models with gluino and squark pair production. The observed data are consistent with the standard model predictions, and gluino (squark) masses of up to 2150 (1850) GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design optimization of an ethanol heavy-duty engine using design of experiments and bayesian optimization

Diesel-fueled engines still hold a large market share in the medium and heavy-duty transportation sector. However, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the strict emission regulations are leading engine manufacturers to seek cleaner alternatives without a compromise in performance. Alcohol-based fuels, such as ethanol, offer a promising alternative to diesel fuel in meeting regulatory demands. Ethanol provides cleaner combustion and lower levels of soot due to its chemical properties, in particular its lower level of carbon content. In addition, the stoichiometric operating conditions of alcohol fueled engines enable the mitigation of NOx emissions in aftertreatment stage. With the promise of retrofitting diesel engines to run on ethanol to reduce emissions, the thermal efficiency of these engines remains the primary optimization target. In order to find the optimal ethanol-fueled engine design that maximizes the thermal efficiency, a large design space needs to be investigated using engineering tools. In this study, previous research by the authors on optimizing the design of a single-cylinder ethanol-fueled engine was extended to explore the design space for a heavy-duty multi-cylinder engine configuration. A heavy-duty engine setup with multiple operating conditions at different engine speeds and loads were considered. A design optimization analysis was performed to identify the potential designs that maximize the indicated thermal efficiency in an ethanol-fueled compression ignition engine. First, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the engine was validated using experimental data for four drive cycle points. Using a design of experiments (DoE) approach and a parameterized piston bowl geometry, the model was then exercised to explore the relationship among geometric features of the piston bowl and spray targeting angle and indicated thermal efficiency across all tested operating conditions. After evaluating 165~candidate designs, a piston bowl geometry was identified that yielded an increase between 1.3 to 2.2 percentage points in indicated thermal efficiency for all tested conditions, while satisfying the operational design constraints for peak pressure and maximum pressure rise rate. The increased performance was attributed to enhanced mixing that led to the formation of a more homogeneous distribution of in-cylinder temperature and equivalence ratio, higher combustion temperatures, and shorter combustion duration. Finally, a Bayesian optimization (BOpt) analysis was employed to find the optimal piston bowl geometry with a fixed spray injector angle for one of the operating conditions. Using BOpt, a piston candidate was identified that resulted in a 1.9~percentage point increase in thermal efficiency from the baseline design, yet only required 65\% of the design samples investigated using the DoE approach.

Tekgul, Bulut↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts on product quality attributes of monoclonal antibodies produced in CHO cell bioreactor cultures during intentional mycoplasma contamination events

Abstract A mycoplasma contamination event in a biomanufacturing facility can result in costly cleanups and potential drug shortages. Mycoplasma may survive in mammalian cell cultures with only subtle changes to the culture and penetrate the standard 0.2‐µm filters used in the clarification of harvested cell culture fluid. Previously, we reported a study regarding the ability of Mycoplasma arginini to persist in a single‐use, perfusion rocking bioreactor system containing a Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) DG44 cell line expressing a model monoclonal immunoglobulin G 1 (IgG1) antibody. Our previous work showed that M. arginini affects CHO cell growth profile, viability, nutrient consumption, oxygen use, and waste production at varying timepoints after M. arginini introduction to the culture. Careful evaluation of certain identified process parameters over time may be used to indicate mycoplasma contamination in CHO cell cultures in a bioreactor before detection from a traditional method. In this report, we studied the changes in the IgG1 product quality produced by CHO cells considered to be induced by the M. arginini contamination events. We observed changes in critical quality attributes correlated with the duration of contamination, including increased acidic charge variants and high mannose species, which were further modeled using principal component analysis to explore the relationships among M. arginini contamination, CHO cell growth and metabolites, and IgG1 product quality attributes. Finally, partial least square models using NIR spectral data were used to establish predictions of high levels (≥10 4 colony‐forming unit [CFU/ml]) of M. arginini contamination, but prediction of levels below 10 4 CFU/ml were not reliable. Contamination of CHO cells with M. arginini resulted in significant reduction of antibody product quality, highlighting the importance of rapid microbiological testing and mycoplasma testing during particularly long upstream bioprocesses to ensure product safety and quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗