Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
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The OSU/PNNL superfund Research Program represents a longstanding collaboration to quantify Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons at various superfund sites in the Pacific Northwest and assess their potential impact on human health. To link the chemical measurements to biological activity, we describe the use of the zebrafish as a high-throughput developmental model of human exposure that provides quantitative measurements of the biological ramifications of exposure to toxicants. The PNNL Superfund have implemented a dose-response modelling pipeline to calculate benchmark dose parameters that enable the comparison of potency across chemicals and phenotypes. Our portal provides public access to this dataset and an interactive web site designed to enable exploration and re-use of this data by the scientific community at http://srp.pnnl.gov.
The OSU/PNNL superfund Research Program represents a longstanding collaboration to quantify Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons at various superfund sites in the Pacific Northwest and assess their potential impact on human health. To link the chemical measurements to biological activity, we describe the use of the zebrafish as a high-throughput developmental model of human exposure that provides quantitative measurements of the biological ramifications of exposure to toxicants. The PNNL Superfund have implemented a dose-response modelling pipeline to calculate benchmark dose parameters that enable the comparison of potency across chemicals and phenotypes. Our portal provides public access to this dataset and an interactive web site designed to enable exploration and re-use of this data by the scientific community at http://srp.pnnl.gov.
Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.
The physical modeling embodied in the computational fluid dynamics codes is discussed. The objectives were to identify shortcomings in the models and to provide a program plan to improve the quantitative accuracy. The physical models studied were for: turbulent mass and momentum transport, heat release, liquid fuel spray, and gaseous radiation. The approach adopted was to test the models against appropriate benchmark-quality test cases from experiments in the literature for the constituent flows that together make up the combustor real flow.
The internal fluid mechanics research program in inlets, ducts, and nozzles is described. The program consists of a balanced effort between the development of computational tools and the conduct of experimental research. The experiments are designed to better understand the fluid flow physics, to develop new or improved flow models, and to provide benchmark quality data sets for validation of the computational methods. The inlet, duct, and nozzle research program is described according to three major classifications of flow phenomena: highly three-dimensional flow fields; shock-boundary layer interactions; and shear layer control. Specific examples of current and future elements of the research program are described for each of these phenomena. In particular, the highly three-dimensional flow field phenomena is highlighted by describing the computational and experiemental research program in transition ducts having a round-to-rectangular area variation. In the case of shock-boundary layer interactions, the specific details of research for normal shock-boundary layer interactions are described. For shear layer control research in vortex generators and the use of aerodynamic excitation for enhancement of the jet mixing process are described. Future research in inlets, ducts, and nozzles will include more emphasis on three-dimensional full Navier-Stokes methods and corresponding experiments designed to concentrate on the appropriate three-dimensional fluid flow physics.
The internal fluid mechanics research program in inlets, ducts, and nozzles consists of a balanced effort between the development of computational tools (both parabolized Navier-Stokes and full Navier-Stokes) and the conduct of experimental research. The experiments are designed to better understand the fluid flow physics, to develop new or improved flow models, and to provide benchmark quality data sets for validation of the computational methods. The inlet, duct, and nozzle research program is described according to three major classifications of flow phenomena: (1) highly 3-D flow fields; (2) shock-boundary-layer interactions; and (3) shear layer control. Specific examples of current and future elements of the research program are described for each of these phenomenon. In particular, the highly 3-D flow field phenomenon is highlighted by describing the computational and experimental research program in transition ducts having a round-to-rectangular area variation. In the case of shock-boundary-layer interactions, the specific details of research for normal shock-boundary-layer interactions are described. For shear layer control, research in vortex generators and the use of aerodynamic excitation for enhancement of the jet mixing process are described.
NASA is working with the FAA to demonstrate the feasibility of pulse Doppler radar as a candidate airborne sensor to detect low altitude windshears. The need to provide the pilot with timely information about possible hazards has motivated a demand for real-time processing of a radar return. Investigated here is parallel processing as a means of accommodating the high data rates required. A PC based parallel computer, called the transputer, is used to investigate issues in real time concurrent processing of radar signals. A transputer network is made up of an array of single instruction stream processors that can be networked in a variety of ways. They are easily reconfigured and software development is largely independent of the particular network topology. The performance of the transputer is evaluated in light of the computational requirements. A number of algorithms have been implemented on the transputers in OCCAM, a language specially designed for parallel processing. These include signal processing algorithms such as the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), pulse-pair, and autoregressive modelling, as well as routing software to support concurrency. The most computationally intensive task is estimating the spectrum. Two approaches have been taken on this problem, the first and most conventional of which is to use the FFT. By using table look-ups for the basis function and other optimizing techniques, an algorithm has been developed that is sufficient for real time. The other approach is to model the signal as an autoregressive process and estimate the spectrum based on the model coefficients. This technique is attractive because it does not suffer from the spectral leakage problem inherent in the FFT. Benchmark tests indicate that autoregressive modeling is feasible in real time.
Mariner 9 UV spectrometer data were reinverted for the ozone abundance, cloud abundance, dust abundance, and polar-cap albedo. The original reduction of the spectra ignored the presence of atmospheric dust and clouds, even though their abundance is substantial and can mask appreciable amounts of ozone if not accounted for (Lindner, 1988). The Mariner 9 ozone data has been used as a benchmark in all theoretical models of atmospheric composition, escape, and photochemistry. A second objective is to examine the data for the interrelationship of the ozone cycle, dust cycle, and cloud cycle, on an annual, inter-annual, and climatic basis, testing predictions by Lindner (1988). This also has implications for many terrestrial ozone studies, such as the ozone hole, acid rain, and ozone-smog. A third objective is to evaluate the efficacy of the reflectance spectroscopy technique at retrieving the ozone abundance on Mars. This would be useful for planning ozone observations on future Mars missions or the terrestrial troposphere.
One of the main objectives of this work is to develop a new dynamic analysis for liquid annular seals with arbitrary profile and to analyze a general distorted interstage seal of the space shuttle main engine high pressure oxygen turbopump (SSME-ATD-HPOTP). The dynamic analysis developed is based on a method originally proposed by Nelson and Nguyen. A simpler scheme based on cubic splines is found to be computationally more efficient and has better convergence properties at higher eccentricities. The first order solution of the original analysis is modified by including a more exact solution that takes into account the variation of perturbed variables along the circumference. A new set of equations for dynamic analysis are derived based on this more general model. A unified solution procedure that is valid for both Moody's and Hirs' friction models is presented. Dynamic analysis is developed for three different models: constant properties, variable properties, and thermal effects with variable properties. Arbitrarily varying seal profiles in both axial and circumferential directions are considered. An example case of an elliptical seal with varying degrees of axial curvature is analyzed in detail. A case study based on predicted clearances of an interstage seal of the SSME-ATD-HPOTP is presented. Dynamic coefficients based on external specified load are introduced to analyze seals that support a preload. The other objective of this work is to study the effect of large rotor displacements of SSME-ATD-HPOTP on the dynamics of the annular seal and the resulting transient motion. One task is to identify the magnitude of motion of the rotor about the centered position and establish limits of effectiveness of using current linear models. This task is accomplished by solving the bulk flow model seal governing equations directly for transient seal forces for any given type of motion, including motion with large eccentricities. Based on the above study, an equivalence is established between linearized coefficients based transient motion and the same motion as predicted by the original governing equations. An innovative method is developed to model nonlinearities in an annular seal based on dynamic coefficients computed at various static eccentricities. This method is thoroughly tested for various types of transient motion using bulk flow model results as a benchmark.
A set of benchmark tests were developed to analyze and measure Space Network scheduling characteristics and to assess the potential benefits of a proposed flexible scheduling concept. This paper discusses the role of the benchmark tests in evaluating alternative flexible scheduling approaches and defines a set of performance measurements. The paper describes the rationale for the benchmark tests as well as the benchmark components, which include models of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS), mission spacecraft, their orbital data, and flexible requests for communication services. Parameters which vary in the tests address the degree of request flexibility, the request resource load, and the number of events to schedule. Test results are evaluated based on time to process and schedule quality. Preliminary results and lessons learned are addressed.
The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.
The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.
The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.
With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources will provide not only invaluable calibration data, but will also give us benchmarks for plasma spectral modeling codes. These codes are to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies. supernova remnants and other astrophysical sources, but they have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding moderate resolution ASCA and EUVE data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort to improve the models, with Phase 1 being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR, 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, time-independence, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent advances in our understanding of stellar coronae in this context.
With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099 are providing not only invaluable calibration data, but also benchmarks for plasma spectral models. These models are needed to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies, supernova, remnants and other astrophysical sources. They have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding low resolution ASCA and moderate resolution Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort, to improve the models, with Phase I being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent, to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent, advances in our understanding of stellar coronae, in this context.
The interaction of an insoluble particle with an advancing solid/liquid interface (SLI) has been a subject of investigation for the past four decades. While the original interest stemmed from geology applications (e.g., frost heaving in soil), researchers soon realized that the complex science associated with such an interaction is relevant to many other scientific fields encompassing metal matrix composites (MMCs), high temperature superconductors, inclusion management in steel, growth of monotectics, and preservation of biological cells. During solidification of a liquid containing an insoluble particle, three distinct interaction phenomena have been experimentally observed: instantaneous engulfment of the particle, continuous pushing, and particle pushing followed by engulfment. It was also observed that for given experimental conditions and particle size there is a critical solidification velocity, V(sub cr), above which a particle is engulfed. During solidification of MMCs pushing leads to particle agglomeration at the grain boundaries and this has detrimental effects on mechanical properties of the casting. Consequently, the process must be designed for instantaneous engulfment to occur. This implies the development of accurate theoretical models to predict V(sub cr), and perform benchmark experiments to test the validity of such models. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the pushing/engulfment phenomenon (PEP), its quantification in terms of the material and processing parameters remains a focus of research. Since natural convection currents occurring during terrestrial solidification experiments complicate the study of PEP, execution of experiments on the International Space Station (ISS) has been approved and funded by NASA. Extensive terrestrial (1g) experiments and preliminary micro-gravity (mu g) experiments on two space shuttle missions have been conducted in preparation for future experiments on the ISS. The investigated systems included metal-ceramic particles (pure aluminum - zirconia particles) and transparent organic - non-reactive particles (succinonitrile - polystyrene and biphenyl - glass). This paper will discuss the experimental results obtained in both lg and pg conditions and the influence of the natural convection on V(sub cr). A summary of past mathematical models and our recent theoretical developments will also be presented to explain the experimentally observed particle/SLI interaction.
The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using classical, and minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the minimax approach, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.