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At least 865 records · Page 48

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO 2 . Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO 2 ). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stepwise Regression Analysis of MDOE Balance Calibration Data Acquired at DNW

This paper reports a comparison of two experiment design methods applied in the calibration of a strain-gage balance. One features a 734-point test matrix in which loads are varied systematically according to a method commonly applied in aerospace research and known in the literature of experiment design as One Factor At a Time (OFAT) testing. Two variations of an alternative experiment design were also executed on the same balance, each with different features of an MDOE experiment design. The Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) is an integrated process of experiment design, execution, and analysis applied at NASA's Langley Research Center to achieve significant reductions in cycle time, direct operating cost, and experimental uncertainty in aerospace research generally and in balance calibration experiments specifically. Personnel in the Instrumentation and Controls Department of the German Dutch Wind Tunnels (DNW) have applied MDOE methods to evaluate them in the calibration of a balance using an automated calibration machine. The data have been sent to Langley Research Center for analysis and comparison. This paper reports key findings from this analysis. The chief result is that a 100-point calibration exploiting MDOE principles delivered quality comparable to a 700+ point OFAT calibration with significantly reduced cycle time and attendant savings in direct and indirect costs. While the DNW test matrices implemented key MDOE principles and produced excellent results, additional MDOE concepts implemented in balance calibrations at Langley Research Center are also identified and described.

DeLoach, RIchard↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗

Progress in the validation of rotor aerodynamic codes using field data

Within the framework of the fourth phase of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 29, a large comparison exercise between measurements and aeroelastic simulations has been carried out featuring three simulation cases in axial, sheared and yawed inflow conditions. Results were obtained from more than 19 simulation tools originating from 12 institutes, ranging in fidelity from blade element momentum (BEM) to computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and compared to state-of-the-art field measurements from the 2 MW DanAero turbine. More than 15 different variable types ranging from lifting-line variables to blade surface pressures, loads and velocities have been compared for the different conditions, resulting in over 250 comparison plots. The result is a unique insight into the current status and accuracy of rotor aerodynamic modeling. For axial flow conditions, a good agreement was found between the various code types, where a dedicated grid sensitivity study was necessary for the CFD simulations. However, compared to wind tunnel experiments on rotors featuring controlled conditions, it remains a challenge to achieve good agreement of absolute levels between simulations and measurements in the field. For sheared inflow conditions, uncertainties due to rotational and unsteady effects on airfoil data result in the CFD predictions standing out above the codes that need input of sectional airfoil data. However, it was demonstrated that using CFD-synthesized airfoil data is an effective means to bypass this shortcoming. For yawed flow conditions, it was observed that modeling of the skewed wake effect is still problematic for BEM codes where CFD and free vortex wake codes inherently model the underlying physics correctly. The next step is a comparison in turbulent inflow conditions, which is featured in IEA Wind Task 47. Doing this analysis in cooperation under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Program (TCP) has led to many mutual benefits for the participants. The large size of the consortium brought ample manpower for the analysis where the learning process by combining several complementary experiences and modeling techniques gave valuable insights that could not be found when the analysis is carried out individually.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advances in Non-contact Measurement of Creep Properties

Our team has developed a novel approach to measuring creep at extremely high temperatures using electrostatic levitation (ESL). This method has been demonstrated on niobium up to 2300 C, while ESL has melted tungsten (3400 C). High-precision machined spheres of the sample are levitated in the NASA MSFC ESL, a national user facility, and heated with a laser. The laser is aligned off-center so that the absorbed photons transfer their momentum to the sample, causing it to rotate at up to 250,000+ RPM. The rapid rotation loads the sample through centripetal acceleration, causing it to deform. The deformation of the sample is captured on high-speed video, which is analyzed by machine-vision software from the University of Massachusetts. The deformations are compared to finite element models to determine the constitutive constants in the creep relation. Furthermore, the noncontact method exploits stress gradients within the sample to determine the stress exponent in a single test. This method was validated in collaboration with the University of Tennessee for niobium at 1985 C, with agreement within the uncertainty of the conventional measurements. A similar method is being employed on Ultra-High-Temperature ZrB2- SiC composites, which may see application in rocket nozzles and sharp leading edges for hypersonic vehicles.

Hyers, Robert W.↗

Joint Retrieval of Surface BRDF from Geostationary and Polar-Orbiting Satellite Sensors

The latest geostationary sensors like GOES 16/17 ABI and Himawari 8/9 AHI provide high frequent observations of the Earth surface with continuously changing solar illumination geometries, which allow us to retrieve the surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) with dedicated atmospheric correction algorithms like MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction). However, because the viewing geometry of a specific location from the geostationary satellites are fixed, the angular sampling of surface BRDF by GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) sensors is far from comprehensive. This study tries to address this issue by exploring a GEO-LEO (Low-Earth-Orbit) synergy, in particular, jointly retrieving surface BRDF parameters with concurrent ABI/AHI and VIIRS top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance for the near-infrared (NIR) band. The NIR band is chosen because the ABI, AHI, and VIIRS instruments have very similar spectral response functions in this band and therefore simplifies the requirements for cross-sensor radiometric calibration. We compile ABI/AHI and VIIRS TOA data with the best quality (cloud-free and low aerosol loading) at chosen AERONET sites. We then run the GeoNEX MAIAC algorithm to retrieve the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse (RTLS) surface BRDF parameters with or without the AEORNET measured atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) as inputs. The joint retrieval results are considered the best estimate of surface BRDF. We compare the joint BRDF retrievals with the corresponding MAIAC BRDF products, retrieved with ABI/AHI or VIIRS separately, to evaluate their differences. We expect that the jointly retrieved BRDF data are more robust than the standard products and may help us reduce uncertainties in higher-level earth observation satellite products.

Remote Sensing↗

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tonal Noise Prediction of a Distributed Propulsion Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Noise is expected to be a major barrier of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to public acceptance. A noise prediction scheme is introduced in this paper and applied to a specific vehicle configuration, namely, the Greased Lightning-10. Results herein will be used to demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating a noise constraint within the flight control system of a distributed electric propulsion vehicle by modifying commands for low-noise operation over sensitive areas, e.g., communities, schools, etc. Steady loading and thickness noise signatures of single propellers are computed using the Propeller Analysis System of the NASA Aircraft NOise Prediction Program. The individual signatures are then superposed at far field observers after applying corrections for spherical spreading and phase delays based on straight ray propagation. Two-propeller source fields are verified using analytical directivity patterns of monopoles. Notional effects of rotation rate, rotation direction, and relative propeller phase are given. Under ideal circumstances and equivalent RPM, random phasing, which occurs in most small UAVs, can produce up to 20 decibels uncertainty in the tonal sound pressure level at a given ground observer. Additionally, directivity modification via relative propeller phase control is shown to have great potential as a noise reduction technique. This paper will focus on the forward flight mode but will also briefly discuss the vertical flight mode.

Pascioni, Kyle A.↗

Precision pointing compensation for DSN antennas with optical distance measuring sensors

The pointing control loops of Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas do not account for unmodeled deflections of the primary and secondary reflectors. As a result, structural distortions due to unpredictable environmental loads can result in uncompensated boresight shifts which degrade pointing accuracy. The design proposed here can provide real-time bias commands to the pointing control system to compensate for environmental effects on pointing performance. The bias commands can be computed in real time from optically measured deflections at a number of points on the primary and secondary reflectors. Computer simulations with a reduced-order finite-element model of a DSN antenna validate the concept and lead to a proposed design by which a ten-to-one reduction in pointing uncertainty can be achieved under nominal uncertainty conditions.

Scheid, R. E.↗

Assessing the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules Against Creep Notch Effects

This report assesses the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules covering the design and construction of high temperature Class A nuclear reactor components for their robustness against creep notch effects. The creep notch effect combines the effect of multiaxial stresses on material creep deformation and damage. This report considers both effects, including the potential for creep mechanism shifts affecting the extrapolation of design data from high stress, short-time experimental data to low stress, long time operating component conditions. The report summarizes the history of and literature on multiaxial creep and surveys the current ASME design rules dealing with multiaxial effects. The report then describes the results of two dedicated numerical studies, one assessing the robustness of the ASME rules against uncertainty in extrapolating from uniaxial creep test data to multiaxial component conditions and a second study examining the potential effects of a mechanism shift from high stress, dislocation-mediated creep to diffusion-dominated creep at lower stresses. The final conclusion of the report is that the ASME rules adequately guard against multiaxial creep failure, though there are several aspects of the Code that could be optimized to provide less over-conservative design predictions or to provide a more consistent design margin as a function of temperature and stress. In a few areas, particularly the potential for mechanism shifts outside the currently-available experimental data, the Code rules should be revaluated as additional experimental data and new modeling and simulation results become available

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CRADA Final Report: Open Microgrid Platform

Current microgrid control technology is mostly proprietary, expensive, and inflexible. An open-source, vendor-neutral, publish-subscribe controller will significantly lower the barrier to entry for new technologies and market entrants: inverter, battery, and load control manufacturers; cloud and services providers; and energy aggregators. An OpenFMB controller can significantly reduce the acquisition, integration, and ongoing operating and maintenance costs and increase revenue opportunities for energy producers and consumers. It allows distributed energy resource (DER) owners to replace individual DER components as richer-function, lower-cost devices become available or to incorporate new forecast and optimization algorithms as they are developed. A standard, secure, full-function DER field controller will also provide a low-cost means for grid operators to effectively manage the variability and uncertainty of solar photovoltaics (PV). Under the terms of this CRADA, ORNL has worked with Open Energy Solutions (OES) to advance the transition of ORNL’s existing open-source microgrid controller into a platform geared toward mainstream implementation. Using a more prevalent and memory-safe programming language, Rust, OES has converted ORNL’s current generation on-grid optimization into an application more suitable for industry use. The results of the ported optimization were analyzed by inputting the same arguments in both the current-generation and next-generation optimizers and verifying that the results were equivalent.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Operational Modal Analysis of the Space Launch System Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter ISVV-010 Rollout

NASA is developing an expendable heavy lift launch vehicle capability, the Space Launch System, to support lunar and deep space exploration. To support this capability, an updated ground infrastructure is required including modifying an existing Mobile Launcher system. The Mobile Launcher is a very large heavy beam/truss steel structure designed to support the Space Launch System during its buildup and integration in the Vehicle Assembly Building, transportation between the Vehicle Assembly Building and launch pad 39B by the Crawler Transporter, and provides the launch platform at the launch pad. As part of the Verification and Validation of the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter, two rollouts of the Mobile Launcher transported by the Crawler Transporter, Integrated System Verification and Validation (ISVV) 005 and 010, have been performed to demonstrate the Crawler Transporter’s ability to transport the Mobile Launcher. ISVV-005 occurred in September 2018 and ISVV-010 occurred in late June 2019. ISVV-005 and ISVV-010 also provided the opportunity to gather data that can be used identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics and refine the estimates of the Artemis I integrated launch vehicle rollout forcing functions. While the rollout environment has historically produced relatively small launch vehicle structural loads for the Saturn/Apollo and Space Shuttle programs in comparison to launch and ascent loads, these relatively small structural loads are inputs to structural fatigue analyses. The same holds true for the Space Launch System. Because the rollout forces acting on the Mobile Launcher and the Crawler Transporter are not directly measurable, Operational Modal Analysis techniques, instead of traditional Experimental Modal Analysis techniques, provide an empirical means to identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics. The ISVV-010 rollout modal characteristics provide important supplemental modal information, which along with the Mobile Launcher modal test that was performed in June 2019 immediately prior to ISVV-010 rollout, combine to reduce uncertainty in the test correlated Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter finite element model. A well test correlated finite element model will play a key role in the Building Block approach the Space Launch System program has implemented as part of its certification process for the Artemis I flight and in refining the Artemis I rollout forcing functions. At the time of the ISVV-005 rollout in September 2018, the Mobile Launcher was still undergoing construction, and therefore its modal characteristics are not directly comparable to those of the Mobile Launcher during the June 2019 Mobile Launcher modal test and subsequent ISVV-010 rollout. Hence the ISVV-005 rollout modal characteristics will not be looked at in this paper. This paper will briefly describe the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter physical characteristics, ISVV-010 rollout data collection, the challenges in implementing Operational Modal Analysis techniques due in part to the Crawler Transporter harmonics, and how these challenges were overcome to obtain the ISVV-010 Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics.

Apollo↗

Operational Modal Analysis of the Space Launch System Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter ISVV-010 Rollout

NASA is developing an expendable heavy lift launch vehicle capability, the Space Launch System, to support lunar and deep space exploration. To support this capability, an updated ground infrastructure is required including modifying an existing Mobile Launcher system. The Mobile Launcher is a very large heavy beam/truss steel structure designed to support the Space Launch System during its buildup and integration in the Vehicle Assembly Building, transportation between the Vehicle Assembly Building and launch pad 39B by the Crawler Transporter, and provides the launch platform at the launch pad. As part of the Verification and Validation of the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter, two rollouts of the Mobile Launcher transported by the Crawler Transporter, Integrated System Verification and Validation (ISVV) 005 and 010, have been performed to demonstrate the Crawler Transporter’s ability to transport the Mobile Launcher. ISVV-005 occurred in September 2018 and ISVV-010 occurred in late June 2019. ISVV-005 and ISVV-010 also provided the opportunity to gather data that can be used identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics and refine the estimates of the Artemis I integrated launch vehicle rollout forcing functions. While the rollout environment has historically produced relatively small launch vehicle structural loads for the Saturn/Apollo and Space Shuttle programs in comparison to launch and ascent loads, these relatively small structural loads are inputs to structural fatigue analyses. The same holds true for the Space Launch System. Because the rollout forces acting on the Mobile Launcher and the Crawler Transporter are not directly measurable, Operational Modal Analysis techniques, instead of traditional Experimental Modal Analysis techniques, provide an empirical means to identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics. The ISVV-010 rollout modal characteristics provide important supplemental modal information, which along with the Mobile Launcher modal test that was performed in June 2019 immediately prior to ISVV-010 rollout, combine to reduce uncertainty in the test correlated Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter finite element model. A well test correlated finite element model will play a key role in the Building Block approach the Space Launch System program has implemented as part of its certification process for the Artemis I flight and in refining the Artemis I rollout forcing functions. At the time of the ISVV-005 rollout in September 2018, the Mobile Launcher was still undergoing construction, and therefore its modal characteristics are not directly comparable to those of the Mobile Launcher during the June 2019 Mobile Launcher modal test and subsequent ISVV-010 rollout. Hence the ISVV-005 rollout modal characteristics will not be looked at in this paper. This paper will briefly describe the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter physical characteristics, ISVV-010 rollout data collection, the challenges in implementing Operational Modal Analysis techniques due in part to the Crawler Transporter harmonics, and how these challenges were overcome to obtain the ISVV-010 Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics.

Apollo↗

Status Update on the High Precision Isotopic Measurements on High Burnup LWR Fuel in 2020

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is currently investigating the feasibility of directly disposing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository. Criticality during the repository performance period (10,000 years or more) is one of the major concerns related to direct disposal of DPCs, specifically as the system undergoes degradation in the repository environment and timeframe. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing an as-loaded criticality analysis methodology using full (actinides + fission products) burnup credit that exploits the inherent criticality margin associated with actual canister-specific loading configuration. Burnup credit criticality analysis requires validation of the depletion/decay codes used to generate the burned isotopic inventory of an assembly by comparing the code-predicted inventory with experimentally determined isotopic data. Currently, isotopic measurement data for boiling water reactors (BWR) SNF are limited, and additional measurements will be highly beneficial for BWR burnup credit analysis, which is essential to demonstrate disposability of BWR DPCs. Moreover, new pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples of isotopic measurements will expand the PWR sample population and consequently will greatly improve sample statistics. In turn, this will reduce uncertainty in the computational determination of the isotopic composition of commercial SNF and eliminate additional penalties currently used for lack of data. As part of the isotopic analysis task, eight diverse, high burnup (HBU) samples from several PWR rods are being dissolved and isotopically analyzed to provide high-quality measurement data for PWR SNF to reducing the uncertainties associated with PWR isotopic depletion validation. The isotopics of interest focus on nuclides important to burnup credit, shielding, and decay heat in PWR SNF. Additionally, eight high burnup BWR fuel samples from the Limerick nuclear power plant have been identified for measurement to support reducing uncertainties associated with BWR isotopic depletion validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

Redesigning capacity market to include flexibility via ramp constraints in high-renewable penetrated system

Capacity markets can co-exist alongside the energy and ancillary markets to ensure the medium-term and long-term supply adequacy by remunerating the generation resources for their availability. With the substantially increasing deployment of renewable generation, the system needs more flexibility to quickly mitigate the variability and uncertainty caused by the renewable generation. However, the present capacity market model does not differentiate the flexibility of generating units, so it might not give appropriate pricing signals to more flexible units that are usually more expensive. This is particularly important considering the increasing penetration levels of renewable generation on the electric grid, which increases the need for flexible units. This paper proposes a novel capacity market model considering flexibility requirement (FR) under the high penetration levels of renewable generation. Therefore, the proposed model can give the market-clearing price (MCP) for not only peak load generation capacity but also flexibility requirement. Thus, flexible units will tend to receive more economic incentives than non-flexible units. In the case studies, the profitability of different generation resources under the proposed capacity market model is analyzed and compared to the present capacity market model. The results show that the proposed method can maintain system reliability with regard to both peak load and flexibility requirement efficiently.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

First measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions using an accelerator neutrino beam

We report the first measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions at the gadolinium-loaded Super-Kamiokande detector using the T2K neutrino beam, which has a peak energy of about 0.6 GeV. A total of 30 neutral-current quasielasticlike event candidates were selected from T2K data corresponding to an exposure of 1.76 × 10 20 protons on target. The 𝛾 ray signals resulting from neutron captures were identified using a neural network. The flux-averaged mean neutron capture multiplicity was measured to be 1.37 ± 0.33 (stat.)$^{+0.17}_{−0.27}$ (syst.), which is compatible within 2.3 sigma than predictions obtained using our nominal simulation. We discuss potential sources of systematic uncertainty in the prediction and demonstrate that a significant portion of this discrepancy arises from the modeling of hadron-nucleus interactions in the detector medium.

particle interactions↗