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At least 865 records · Page 48

Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Dataset Under Real Flight Conditions for Prognostics and Diagnostics

A key enabler of intelligent maintenance systems is the ability to predict the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of its components, i.e., prognostics. The development of data-driven prognostics models requires datasets with run-to-failure trajectories. However, large representative run-to-failure datasets are often unavailable in real applications because failures are rare in many safety-critical systems. To foster the development of prognostics methods, we develop a new realistic dataset of run-to-failure trajectories for a fleet of aircraft engines under real flight conditions. The dataset was generated with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (CMAPSS) model developed at NASA. The damage propagation modelling used in this dataset builds on the modelling strategy from previous work and incorporates two new levels of fidelity. First, it considers real flight conditions as recorded on board of a commercial jet. Second, it extends the degradation modelling by relating the degradation process to its operation history. This dataset also provides the health respectively fault class. Therefore, besides its applicability to prognostics problems, the dataset can be used for fault diagnostics.

CMAPPS↗

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

A strategy for maturing the technologies required for a megawatt-class nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system is presented. The effort is responsive to recent non-advocate reviews stating high-power NEP technologies were relatively immature and significant maturation was required before contemplating the use of NEP on a flight mission. The maturation strategy presented accomplishes this through hardware test and evaluation at the sizes, scales, and conditions expected during high-power NEP missions. The development effort is accompanied by modeling of such a system to demonstrate thorough understanding and verification of the performance, lifetime, and failure modes. The proposed effort uses a building-block approach, maturing technologies for a 1 MWe block under the assumption that a future high-power NEP mission will have requirements that can be met either through straightforward scaling of this building block to the levels required or through the use of multiple blocks to meet the overall power needs. The plan is outlined for maturation to technology readiness level 5, characterized by test and evaluation using brassboard-fidelity hardware in a relevant environment and by demonstration of agreement between test data and analytical predictions.

Kurt A. Polzin↗

Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Solar Spicules: A Review of Recent Models and Targets for Future Observations

Since their discovery over 100 years ago, there have been many suggestions for the origin and development of solar spicules. Because the velocities of spicules are comparable to the sound and Alfven speeds of the low chromosphere, linear theory cannot fully describe them. Consequently, detailed tests of theoretical ideas had to await the development of computing power that only became available during the 1970s. This work reviews theories for spicules and spicule-like features over approximately the past 25 years, with an emphasis on the models based on nonlinear numerical simulations. These models have given us physical insight into wave propagation in the solar atmosphere, and have helped elucidate how such waves, and associated shock waves, may be capable of creating motions and structures on magnetic flux tubes in the lower solar atmosphere. So far, however, it has been difficult to reproduce the most- commonly -quoted parameters for spicules with these models, using what appears to be the most suitable input parameters. A key impediment to developing satisfactory models has been the lack of reliable observational information, which is a consequence of the small angular size and transient lifetime of spicules. I close with a list of key observational questions to be addressed with space-based satellites, such as the currently operating TRACE satellite, and especially the upcoming Solar-B mission. Answers to these questions will help determine which, if any, of the current models correctly explains spicules.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Understanding the limitations and potential of micro tensile testing of tungsten and needs for crystal plasticity modelling

Tungsten is the leading plasma facing material candidate due to its exceptional properties. Understanding the response to neutron irradiation is crucial for the lifetime evaluation of tungsten. The limited space in nuclear reactors and the high levels of radioactivity of the specimens after irradiation are significant barriers to accurately measuring the mechanical properties after neutron irradiation. Testing of micro tensile specimens is one approach to reduce the total amount of irradiated material needed for a set of mechanical testing experiments. However, micro samples are not necessarily measuring the bulk material properties, as size effects produce higher measured mechanical properties than is observed in engineering size counterparts. Determining the minimal sample size for reliable bulk property measurement, combined with modeling efforts, is essential. We conducted room temperature tensile tests on tungsten micro tensile specimens fabricated with focused ion beam, plasma focused ion beam and femto-second laser ablation system to dimension of 2×2×7?µm³, 7×7×18?µm³, and 80×100×233?µm³ (width×thickness×gauge-length), respectively. Elevated tensile testing was performed up to 475°C on 5×5×18?µm³ specimens fabricated with focused ion beam. The smallest specimens exhibited a high degree of ductility and strength, whereas the largest specimens demonstrated behavior akin to bulk tungsten. To investigate the effects introduced by the micro specimen fabrication processes and to obtain the necessary bulk dislocation density for the crystal plasticity model, we employed X-ray diffraction depth profiling. This measurement was performed using different X-ray sources with varying penetration depths. Finally, the potential and limitations of micro mechanical tests for tungsten will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Search for Long-Lived Particles with Muon Detector Shower Signature in the CMS Run-3 data

Many beyond standard model theories predict the existence of long-lived particles (LLPs). These LLPs can have sizable lifetimes and decay several meters from their production vertex. In this poster/talk, we present the analysis strategy for searching for LLPs using the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Experiment. The proton-proton collision data used in this analysis were collected from 2022 to 2024 at a center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 170 fb^-1. The LLP decays are reconstructed as a high-multiplicity cluster of detector hits in the cathode strip chambers (CSC) of the muon system endcap. This signature is referred to as the Muon Detector Showers (MDS). This search requires events to contain at least one MDS cluster. The analysis focuses on LLP hadronic decays and LLP masses up to a few tens of GeV. We present the signal properties in MonteCarlo simulation, event selection, background modeling, and evaluation of the expected sensitivity. The results are interpreted under the Twin Higgs model benchmark.

Agyemang-Duah, Andrews [Grambling State U.]↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗

Promoting the regulatory acceptance of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material degradation in nuclear reactors

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program within the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy has developed its current recommendation for promoting the use of combined ion irradiation and neutron irradiation for the accelerated qualification of materials to be deployed in nuclear reactors. This plan is intended to provide a collaborative path forward that can be adopted by academia, national laboratories, and industry, and has been developed with input from the regulatory research arm of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). To deploy new materials or materials manufactured with new technologies, such as additive manufacturing, materials must be evaluated for reactor-induced degradation from the combination of harsh temperatures, corrosive environments, and radiation fields. However, rapid deployment of materials necessitates accelerated testing methods rather than relying on years of neutron irradiation in a material test reactor. Ion irradiation has demonstrated success in reproducing material microstructure and select property evolution resulting from neutron irradiation with three to four orders of magnitude reduction in time and cost, making it an ideal candidate for accelerated irradiation testing. This presentation provides context governing both the scientific and regulatory aspects of the proposed goal. The discussion is aimed at a broad audience including researchers from industry, national laboratories, and academia. The recommended path forward is presented as a conceptual framework of specific steps. In brief, the strategy entails developing an integrated ion and neutron irradiation test plan for the material property of interest based on the fundamental tenet of the linkage of microstructure and properties in materials. Physics-based modeling interprets ion irradiation data and predicts neutron irradiation microstructure and properties with uncertainty bounds. The first round of testing is sufficient for an initial licensing application using a risk-informed approach, while a minimum required neutron irradiation test plan reduces cost and time requirements. A surveillance program with witness specimens in-reactor provides additional data over time to improve model predictions to higher damage levels and further reduce uncertainty bounds, which can be used for license extensions or longer lifetimes in new license applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Role of Fe in long-range ordered Ni 2 Cr precipitates in Ni-Cr-Fe model alloys during isothermal aging

The precipitation of new phases during long-term service at elevated temperatures is a concern for the thermal stability of engineering alloys. In Ni-Cr-based alloys, e.g., Alloy 690, the formation of long-range ordered Ni 2 Cr causes embrittlement and may impact the lifetime of nuclear power plant components. In this work, we quantify the formation and evolution of Ni 2 Cr precipitation in eleven Ni-Cr-Fe model alloys with 0, 5, 7, and 10wt % Fe contents, and with Ni/Cr atomic ratios of 1.8, 2.0, 2.2, 2.4. These alloys were isothermally aged up to 10,000h at temperatures between 330 and 475°C. The alloys were characterized by synchrotron-based x-ray diffraction and Vickers hardness testing to quantify Ni 2 Cr precipitate size, and the impact of precipitate size on the mechanical properties as a function of Fe content. After 10,000 h of aging at 475°C and 418°C, the formation of Ni 2 Cr was observed in all alloys with 0 and 5wt % Fe. After 10,000h of aging at 418°C, Ni 2 Cr precipitates were also observed in the 7wt % Fe containing Ni/Cr=2.0 sample. Further, no clear evidence of Ni 2 Cr was observed in any of the 10wt % Fe samples at any time and temperature combination. We find that the face-centered cubic matrix lattice contraction and Vickers hardness are correlated with the Ni 2 Cr formation. The greatest change in hardness and lattice contraction occurs in stoichiometric alloys (Ni/Cr=2.0) with 0wt % Fe at 475°C. The rate of change in the material properties for the 5wt % Fe alloys is reduced, however the magnitude of changes is similar to 0wt % Fe alloys. A precipitation hardening model developed for Ni-Cr alloys based on critical resolved shear stress with weakly coupled dislocations shows a clear link between Ni 2 Cr precipitate size and hardness. This trend held across all alloys with Ni 2 Cr formation regardless of Fe concentration. This important structure-property relationship can potentially help define Ni-Cr-Fe-based component lifetimes directly through an understanding of how Ni 2 Cr formation impacts mechanical properties as a function of Fe content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of bubbles in arterial heat pipes

The behavior of gas occlusions in arterial heat pipes has been studied experimentally and theoretically. Specifically, the gas-liquid system properties, solubility and diffusivity, have been measured from -50 to 100 C for helium and argon in ammonia, Freon-21 (CHC12F), and methanol. Properties values obtained were then used to experimentally test models for gas venting from a heat pipe artery under isothermal conditions (i.e., no-heat flow), although the models, as developed, are also applicable to heat pipes operated at power, with some minor modifications. Preliminary calculations indicated arterial bubbles in a stagnant pipe require from minutes to days to collapse and vent. It has been found experimentally that a gas bubble entrapped within an artery structure has a very long lifetime in many credible situations. This lifetime has an approximately inverse exponential dependence on temperature, and is generally considerably longer for helium than for argon. The models postulated for venting under static conditions were in general quantitative agreement with experimental data. Factors of primary importance in governing bubble stability are artery diameter, artery wall thickness, noncondensible gas partial pressure, and the property group (the Ostwald solubility coefficient multiplied by the gas/liquid diffusivity).

Saaski, E. W.↗

Tests and consequences of disk plus halo models of gamma-ray burst sources

The gamma-ray burst observations made by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and by previous experiments are still consistent with a combined Galactic disk (or Galactic spiral arm) plus extended Galactic halo model. Testable predictions and consequences of the disk plus halo model are discussed here; tests performed on the expanded BATSE database in the future will constrain the allowed model parameters and may eventually rule out the disk plus halo model. Using examples, it is shown that if the halo has an appropriate edge, BATSE will never detect an anisotropic signal from the halo of the Andromeda galaxy. A prediction of the disk plus halo model is that the fraction of the bursts observed to be in the 'disk' population rises as the detector sensitivity improves. A careful reexamination of the numbers of bursts in the two populations for the pre-BATSE databases could rule out this class of models. Similarly, it is predicted that different satellites will observe different relative numbers of bursts in the two classes for any model in which there are two different spatial distribiutions of the sources, or for models in which there is one spatial distribution of the sources that is sampled to different depths for the two classes. An important consequence of the disk plus halo model is that for the birthrate of the halo sources to be small compared to the birthrate of the disk sources, it is necessary for the halo sources to release many orders of magnitude more energy over their bursting lifetime than the disk sources. The halo bursts must also be much more luminous than the disk bursts; if this disk-halo model is correct, it is necessary to explain why the disk sources do not produce halo-type bursts.

Smith, I. A.↗

Solar Spicules: A Review of Recent Models and Targets for Future Observations

Since their discovery over 100 years ago, there have been many suggestions for the origin and development of solar spicules. Because the velocities of spicules are comparable to the sound and Alfven speeds of the low chromosphere, linear theory cannot fully describe them. Consequently, detailed tests of theoretical ideas had to await the development of computing power that only became available during the 1970s. This work reviews theories for spicules and spicule-like features over approximately the past 25 years, with an emphasis an the models based on nonlinear numerical simulations. These models have given us physical insight into wave propagation in the solar atmosphere and have helped elucidate how such waves, and associated shock waves, may be capable of creating motions and structures on magnetic flux tubes in the lower solar atmosphere. So far, however, it has been difficult to reproduce the most commonly quoted parameters for spicules with these models, using what appears to be the most suitable input parameters. A key impediment to developing satisfactory models has been the lack of reliable observational information, which is a consequence of the small angular size and transient lifetime of spicules. I close with a list of key observational questions to be addressed with space-based satellites, such as the currently operating Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) satellite, and especially the upcoming Solar-B mission. Answers to these questions will help determine which, if any, of the current models correctly explains spicules.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Topological Green’s Function Zeros in an Exactly Solved Model and Beyond

The interplay of topological electronic band structures and strong interparticle interactions provides a promising path towards the constructive design of robust, long-range entangled many-body systems. As a prototype for such systems, we here study an exactly integrable, local model for a fractionalized topological insulator. Using a controlled perturbation theory about this limit, we demonstrate the existence of topological bands of zeros in the exact fermionic Green’s function and show that in this model they do affect the topological invariant of the system, but not the quantized transport response. Close to (but prior to) the Higgs transition signaling the breakdown of fractionalization, the topological bands of zeros acquire a finite “lifetime.” We also discuss the appearance of edge states and edge zeros at real space domain walls separating different phases of the system. This model provides a fertile ground for controlled studies of the phenomenology of Green’s function zeros and the underlying exactly solvable lattice gauge theory illustrates the synergetic cross pollination between solid-state theory, high-energy physics, and quantum information science.

Bollmann, Steffen↗

A&L Annual Report: Kapton Strength

Exploding Foil Initiator (EFI) systems function by launching a polymer flyer (often referred to as a slapper) at a high explosive (HE) pellet, which is intended to shock-initiate the HE. Flyer characteristics (e.g., shape, planarity, etc.) are extremely important in this respect, governing their ability to initiate the HE. Polymer models currently used in these systems are largely unvalidated, potentially compromising the integrity of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) predictions of EFI function. An improved EFI MHD modelling capability is expected to: (1) expedite optimization of EFI-based initiation system design, (2) enable consideration of EFI-related aging and corresponding lifetime predictions, and (3) potentially minimize the number of costly experiments required to certify EFI designs. To address this knowledge gap, several years ago we began a computational project to develop a higher-fidelity model for Kapton, a Polyimide copolymer most commonly employed as the flyer material in EFI devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolutionary implications of a steady-state water abundance on Venus

In 1987, Grinspoon proposed that the data on hydrogen abundance, isotopic composition, and escape rate were consistent with the hypothesis that water on Venus might be in steady-state rather than monotonic decline since the dawn of time. This conclusion was partially based on a derived water lifetime against nonthermal escape of approximately 10(exp 8) years. Others have questioned this conclusion. De Bergh et al. found H2O lifetimes of greater than 10(exp 9) years. Donahue and Hodges derived H2O lifetimes of 0.4 - 5 x 10(exp 9) years. The most sophisticated analysis to date of near-IR radiation from Venus' nightside reveals a water mixing ratio of approximately 30 ppm. Recent re-analysis of Pioneer Venus Mass Spectrometer Data are consistent with a water abundance of 30 ppm. Hodges and Tinsley found an escape flux due to charge exchange with hot H(+) of 2.8 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1). Gurwell and Yung estimated an escape flux of 3.5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) from collisions with hot O produced by dissociative recombination of O2(+). Brace et al. estimated an escape flux of 5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) from ion escape from the ionotail of Venus. The combined estimated escape flux from all of these processes is 3.7 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1), suggesting a lifetime against escape for water of less than 10(exp 8) years. A recent estimate of H escape flux employing a different ionospheric model and using Pioneer Venus reentry data to estimate the response of the escape flux to the solar cycle finds a somewhat lower escape flux of 1.4 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1), suggesting a water lifetime closer to 2 x 10(exp 8) years, significantly less than the age of the planet. Large uncertainties remain in these quantities, yet the data suggest that a source of water more recent than primordial sources is required and that a steady-state is likely. To obvious candidates for this source water are cometary impact and volcanic outgassing. Other aspects of this investigation are discussed.

Grinspoon, David H.↗

Calculation of Operations Efficiency Factors for Mars Surface Missions

The duration of a mission--and subsequently, the minimum spacecraft lifetime--is a key component in designing the capabilities of a spacecraft during mission formulation. However, determining the duration is not simply a function of how long it will take the spacecraft to execute the activities needed to achieve mission objectives. Instead, the effects of the interaction between the spacecraft and ground operators must also be taken into account. This paper describes a method, using "operations efficiency factors", to account for these effects for Mars surface missions. Typically, this level of analysis has not been performed until much later in the mission development cycle, and has not been able to influence mission or spacecraft design. Further, the notion of moving to sustainable operations during Prime Mission--and the effect that change would have on operations productivity and mission objective choices--has not been encountered until the most recent rover missions (MSL, the (now-cancelled) joint NASA-ESA 2018 Mars rover, and the proposed rover for Mars 2020). Since MSL had a single control center and sun-synchronous relay assets (like MER), estimates of productivity derived from MER prime and extended missions were used. However, Mars 2018's anticipated complexity (there would have been control centers in California and Italy, and a non-sun-synchronous relay asset) required the development of an explicit model of operations efficiency that could handle these complexities. In the case of the proposed Mars 2018 mission, the model was employed to assess the mission return of competing operations concepts, and as an input to component lifetime requirements. In this paper we provide examples of how to calculate the operations efficiency factor for a given operational configuration, and how to apply the factors to surface mission scenarios. This model can be applied to future missions to enable early effective trades between operations design, science mission planning, and spacecraft design.

Laubach, Sharon↗

Charge exchange lifetimes for ring current ions

In view of the importance of charge exchange decay as a loss mechanism for magnetospheric ions, the paper summarizes the latest and best measurements of the physical quantities involved in the calculation of the charge exchange lifetime of the mirroring ions. The normalized atomic hydrogen distribution is presented as a function of radial distance on the basis of the Chamberlain model for a range of exobase temperatures and for various combinations of satellite particles. Cross section measurements for various ions in the energy range 1 keV to 200 keV are summarized in the form of normalized charge exchange lifetimes. The equatorial lifetimes can be determined for any of these ions at a specific energy and L-value.

Smith, P. H.↗