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Nasa's Launch Communications Ground Segment for the 21st Century Florida Spaceport

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Project is implementing a new launch communications ground segment to provide services for the next generation of human and robotic space exploration systems. It will deliver unique and advanced capabilities to accelerate the transformation of Kennedy Space Center into a multi-user spaceport in cooperation with the United States Air Force (USAF). The project has leveraged commercial technologies and remote operations concepts matured in NASAs orbiting satellite ground systems to achieve dramatic lifecycle cost efficiencies as compared to the space shuttle-era ground segment. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the development history, capabilities and anticipated use cases of the NEN Launch Communications Segment (NEN LCS).The NASA Kennedy Space Center is co-located with the USAF Eastern Launch Range at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The USAF operates two launch communications ground stations, but they are not designed to transmit voice, commands or other data to the launch vehicle or astronauts. The bi-directional uplink-downlink communications responsibility for human missions has historically resided with the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Several market analyses and feasibility studies investigating concepts to provide NASAs next generation launch communications services were performed during the Constellation Program prior to its cancellation in 2009, and as part of the Kennedy Space Centers follow-on efforts to transform itself into a 21st century multi-user spaceport. In 2012, the Kennedy Space Center and the USAF 45th Space Wing jointly led a study to analyze the market needs of current and future launch systems and assess the operational deficiencies of the Eastern Range infrastructure. The study team issued several recommendations, two of which ultimately became driving operational capability requirements for the NEN LCS: increased telemetry data rates of at least 20 Mbps, and S-band uplink capability. Additional capabilities identified in the requirements development process include spread spectrum modulation support, LDPC 12 and 78 error correction codes, support for IRIG-106 and CCSDS data formats, automated best source selection, and Space Link Extension (SLE) services for data distribution. The NEN LCS is comprised of two permanent ground stations, the new Kennedy Uplink Station (KUS) and refurbished Ponce de Leon (PDL) station. Both stations are remotely operated from the Global Monitor and Control Center at Wallops Flight Facility. This core architecture is extensible through host-tenant arrangements with the U.S. Air Force and deployable assets, enabling agile, tailored and robust solutions to meet the needs of civil, commercial or military customers. The NEN LCS has three use cases:1.To provide agile, tailored and robust launch communications solutions to Florida spaceport customers2.To provide orbital communications services to near-earth customers 3.To provide an experimental proving ground for Space Mobile Network concepts and technologies The NEN LCS driving mission is to support the bi-directional link with the Orion crew capsule and two 20 Mbps telemetry links from the Space Launch System core stage on Exploration Mission-1, the first integrated flight of NASAs flagship human exploration systems.

Roberts, Christopher J.↗

A View from Above: Earth Observations

Since the 1960s, satellites have been looking down at the Earth to monitor weather patterns and track severe storms, observe how our land surface is changing and responding to hydrometerological extremes, and even to sense how the Earth's crust is deforming from earthquakes and volcanoes. Space and airborne platforms can provide unique views of the disaster lifecycle, informing pre-event mitigation and preparedness, emergency response following an event, and monitoring longer-term recovery. These remotely-sensed data, products and models can provide a global perspective to see beyond administrative boundaries, reach remote places where in situ observations are di cult or non-existent, and provide the necessary context and situational awareness to aid in disaster response. So how do these platforms work? Instruments aboard satellites use different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum to passively or actively observe energy across a range of wavelengths, which can be turned into meaningful data on geophysical, atmospheric, and hydrological variables. e US has had a broad range of Earth observation (EO) platforms delivering open data for scientific research and societal benefits for decades. e Landsat programme, a joint initiative between the US Geological Survey (USGS) and NASA, has the world's longest continuous collection of space-based satellite imagery of the Earth, extending from 1972 to present. e Landsat satellites provide visible, near infrared, and thermal data that are used to support emergency response and disaster relief by mapping changes in water during floods, and dramatic land surface changes, including those resulting from landslides, wild res, severe weather, volcanic plumes, and dust storms.

FEMA↗

Collaborative Systems Engineering in the Ascent Abort-2 Crew Module/Separation Ring Project

Generally speaking, systems engineering (SE) tool-sets face a dilemma balancing power and accessibility. High-powered SE tools (MagicDraw, Cradle, Core, etc.) tend to be specialized and are available only to highly trained Systems Engineers, and/or through the use of a 'back room' developer team making the output products available to the broader team. On the other hand, highly accessible tools (MS Word, Excel, etc.) do not have the power to implement SE in a rigorous manner. NASA has to test all aspects of the new human-rated Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle spacecraft prior to its first crewed mission. The test program includes uncrewed launch abort flight tests to demonstrate the capability to save the crew in the event that a launch failure occurs. Orion's second abort flight test will be a low-altitude flight test known as "Ascent Abort 2 (AA-2)." This test is currently scheduled to be carried out at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's Space Launch Complex 46 (SLC-46) in Florida in 2019. NASA's in-house AA-2 Crew Module and Separation Ring (CSR) Team is producing the crew module and separation ring. Operating jointly as both an Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project and an Orion Project, the CSR project charter includes development of innovative, streamlined and generally more efficient practices for creation of flight hardware and software. One result of this tasking has been development of a collaborative and data-centric systems engineering environment within the team's shared web environment (Microsoft SharePoint). Through the use of built-in, 'out of the box capabilities' present in MS SharePoint, the CSR Systems Engineering team has created (with some limited developer support) a data-centric architecture for the project's SE implementation, including functional and interface analysis, requirements development and management, risk management, verification planning and management, test results, and end item management. Data elements are linked between data structures so as to define and control relationships between item types, link requirements to parents and children, and link tests to the requirements that they verify. The overall project team integration is increased by also linking SE content to project management content over the project life cycle, including team communication, action items, configuration management, decisional and meeting materials, and life cycle reviews. This presentation will provide an overview of the collaborative SE environment, showing how it provides the power for a number of SE tasks while still providing the accessibility and transparency to allow the full project team to collaborate and succeed. Given the project phase, we'll be able to present a nearly full lifecycle discussion, from concept through verification and approaching delivery.

Systems Engineering environments↗

Integration of Information Management System, Workflow and Computational Tools Enabling Multiscale Modeling Within an ICME Paradigm

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Fortunately, material information management systems and physics-based multiscale modeling methods have kept pace with the growing user demands. Herein, recent efforts to develop a set of Python functions that exchange information between NASA GRC's Integrated multiscale Micromechanics Analysis Code (ImMAC) software toolset and its Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), Granta MI® database schema is presented. The goal is to enable seamless coupling between both test data and simulation data, which is captured and tracked automatically within Granta MI®, with full model pedigree information. These tools, and this type of linkage, are foundational to realizing the full potential of ICME, in which materials processing, microstructure, properties, and performance are coupled to enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures.

multiscale modeling; Micromechanics; Computational↗

Hybridized Agile Software Development of Flight Control Team Tools for International Space Station's Payload Operations Integration Center

Ground systems operations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Payload Operations and Integration Function (POIF) is increasing, via the High Operations Tempo (HOT) initiative, its ability to support more science activities with a fourth crew member on the International Space Station (ISS). The Flight Control Team's need to support this increased crew presence mandated the need for a series of software tools to better handle the increasing pace of payload science operations. The overall need was clear from the outset, but the full scope and user experience for each tool, were not as well understood, so establishing a fixed set of initial requirements was not feasible. An Agile Software Development (ASD) paradigm takes advantage of uncertainty, and plans for it, so it was deemed the most appropriate approach to create room for exploring novel concepts, and to mount a rapid and flexible response to inevitiably changing requirements. It facilitated the need for unprecedented collaboration between the Product Team (i.e. users from the Flight Control Team) and the Development Team (i.e. POIC systems engineers, developers, testers). This is a process shift in the development, test, and release of software from one that is prescriptive to one that is adaptive, which is necessary for these tools to have longevity. The application of ASD to the product development lifecycle permitted the timely incorporation of customer feedback, and, allowed for continuous quality improvements. This resulted in a suite of tools that are efficient, user-friendly, and enable POIF ground systems to support the increasing pace of payload science operations. ASD is not as much a set of prescriptive processes as it is a shift in mindset; one that moves from planning against change, to planning for change, thereby iteratively growing software towards user-defined value.

Albers, Cerese M.↗

Additive Manufacturing of Liquid Rocket Engine Combustion Devices: A Summary of Process Developments and Hot-Fire Testing Results

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is an emerging technology with a focus on complex metallic component fabrication: Enables complex shapes and internal features that were not possibly with traditional manufacturing techniques, and significant schedule and overall lifecycle cost reductions. To date at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), combustion devices component hardware ranging in size from 100 - 35,000 lbf has been designed and manufactured using AM and many of these pieces have been hot-fire tested.

Gradl, Paul↗

Tagging Components in the Test Complex Area

Why tag components differently? - Various methods are in place to tag different components, but not every component is tracked; - Variance in method can make it difficult to obtain component information and identify discrepancies; -Time and resources are spent on component localization and verification. Previous work of RA10 interns: - Researching more efficient asset tracking methods; - Investigating cost effective ways to localize components; - Past interns identified using QR (Quick Response) codes as a potential solution. Link QR codes to Windchill (PLM - Product Lifecycle Management system) DDMS (Design and Data Management System) after QR code is printed/etched and physically tagging it as quickly as possible

Gomez, Sarah↗

Developing a Standard for Earth Observation Data Preservation Content - A Path to Future Usability

For datasets to be usable, many pieces of information in addition to the data themselves are essential. During the active parts of the lifecycle of dataset generating projects, the needed information is usually accessible through individuals familiar with the various aspects of the projects. However, the utility of datasets tends to outlive the lives of projects, by several decades in many cases. Thus it is essential to capture all the relevant information about the datasets, data, metadata and associate knowledge that is sufficient to read, understand, interpret and reuse the datasets, while the projects are still active. The capture and preservation should be such that the data are usable when no consultation is available from the original project participants. Identification of specific categories of content through an international standard is beneficial to the user communities of the future, so that projects involving Earth observations and generating data products can consistently plan for preservation and future usability of the project outcomes. While there are existing standards that address archival and preservation in general, there are no existing international standards or specifications today to address what content should be preserved. The standard, ISO 19165-1, titled "Geographic Information - Preservation of digital data and metadata Part 1: Fundamentals" considers geographic information preservation in general. It acknowledges that "specific content items needed to preserve the full provenance and context of the data and associated metadata depend on the needs of the designated community and types of datasets (e.g., maps, remotely sensed data from satellites and airborne instruments, physical samples). Follow-up parts to this standard may be developed detailing content items appropriate to individual disciplines." NASA proposed an extension to this standard, titled "Geographic information -- Preservation of digital data and metadata -- Part 2: Content specifications for Earth observation data and derived digital products." The development of this extension is in progress with participation by an international team representing nine countries. The purpose of this paper is to introduce this standard and report on its status.

Remote Sensing; Data Systems; Open Data;↗

Overview of the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture–Instrument (EVI-3) program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones (TCs). TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm lifecycle. TROPICS will comprise a constellation of at least six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 205 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles and low-level moisture. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution in the microwave spectrum to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for TCs on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data. Here, we provide an overview of the mission and an update on current status, with a focus on unique characteristics of the Cubesat system, recent performance simulations on a range of observables to be provided by the constellation, and a summary of science applications.

Blackwell, W. J.↗

Agile Approach to Assuring the Safety-Critical Embedded Software for NASA's Orion Spacecraft

Human-rated missions like those in NASA's Orion Program continue to grow in complexity. The role of software in achieving ambitious mission objectives has expanded dramatically in the last few decades. Assuring the safety and performance of the embedded flight software is quickly growing beyond the reach of traditional methods and resource levels. The methods used to build these software-dominant systems evolve in an on-going attempt to keep pace with the scope of our ambitions. Agile software development is now commonplace. The long timelines and large batches of work associated with traditional methods are being replaced by rapid delivery of small increments _ as system capabilities are realized in waves. Assurance of these critical software capabilities must therefore conquer an ever-expanding frontier of challenges, and do so with an approach matched to the evolving development methods. This paper recounts the journey of the Orion Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) team as we addressed this dynamic environment. Widening our aperture to encompass a dramatically larger mission scope, while adjusting our cadence to synchronize with the rapid pace of agile software development, a new approach to IV&V is emerging. This approach is characterized by a sharper focus on mission capabilities, matched with a method to dynamically _follow the risk' as the IV&V team delivers more compelling assurance data in waves. Traditional methods prevalent in IV&V tend to scope the work using artifacts of the development process as they evolve from preliminary to final versions, and the pace of delivery was synchronized with the development timelines prevalent in the waterfall lifecycle. That more static approach is out of phase with the demands of the new environment. Scoping work according to the critical capabilities of the system (rather than artifacts of development) and synchronizing with the rapid pace of agile development, we are moving toward more effective parity with the demands of the environment. We explain the concrete steps we took, the principles that motivated our choices, and the results we have achieved to date.

Capability based assurance↗

Inserting New Technologies into Human-Computer Interfaces for Future Lunar and Mars Missions

Plans call for human cislunar operations and lunar surface access, to prepare for eventual Mars missions. NASA will also develop new opportunities in lunar orbit that provide the foundation and act as a gateway for human exploration deeper into the solar system. Current human spaceflight is complex and requires as many as fifty people to support the International Space Station (ISS) Mission Control Center (MCC) in Houston, Texas. These flight controllers in the front and back rooms of the MCC, serve as an extra pair of eyes overseeing the numerous station systems. Deep space missions - to the moon, Mars, and beyond - will be more complex and place challenging mission constraints on the crew. As the round-trip communication delays increase in deep space exploration, more on-board systems autonomy and functionality will be needed to maintain and control the vehicle. These mission constraints will change the Earth-based ground control approach and will demand efficient and effective human-computer interfaces (HCI) to control a highly complex vehicle or habitat system. All of this necessitates a different approach to designing and developing spacecraft and habitats. In the beginning of new human spaceflight programs, focus is typically on launch vehicle and uncrewed spacecraft design and development. The reasoning behind this focus to enable flight testing of an integrated launch vehicle and spacecraft system to ensure it will be safe enough to allow humans on board. This is an essential process for new spacecraft, however, the practical effect is a lack of funding for the spacecraft’s human interfaces development. It can be many years before the human interface development begins, putting it late in the spacecraft lifecycle, when almost all other spacecraft systems and subsystems are already in place. This forces the usage of existing and proven technologies for the HCI interfaces. We posit that putting the human first in a spacecraft design process will yield a more effective spacecraft for exploration and long duration missions. NASA Human Research Program (HRP) has identified inadequate HCI as a risk for future missions. New tools and procedures to aid the crew in operating a complex spacecraft will be required. This paper discusses ongoing activities in the development of the next generation HCI components and systems, and a new approach toward human interfaces for spacecraft.

Salazar, George A.↗

Energetic Particles of Cosmic Accelerators II: Active Galactic Nuclei and Gamma-ray Bursts

The high-energy universe has revealed that energetic particles are ubiquitous in the cosmos and play a vital role in the cultivation of cosmic environments on all scales. Our pursuit of more than a century to uncover the origins and fate of these cosmic energetic particles has given rise to some of the most interesting and challenging questions in astrophysics. Within our own galaxy, we have seen that energetic particles engage in a complex interplay with the galactic environment and even drive many of its key characteristics (for more information, see the first white paper in this series). On cosmological scales, the energetic particles supplied by the jets of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are an important source of energy for the intracluster and intergalactic media, providing a mechanism for regulating star formation and black hole growth and cultivating galaxy evolution (AGN feedback). Gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows encode information about their circumburst environment, which has implications for massive stellar winds during previous epochs over the stellar lifecycle. As such, GRB afterglows provide a means for studying very high-redshift galaxies since GRBs can be detected even if their host galaxy cannot. It has even been suggest that GRB could be used to measure cosmological distance scales if they could be shown to be standard candles. Though they play a key role in cultivating the cosmological environment and/or enabling our studies of it, there is still much we do not know about AGNs and GRBs, particularly the avenue in which and through which they supply radiation and energetic particles, namely their jets. Despite the enormous progress in particle-in-cell and magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we have yet to pinpoint the processes involved in jet formation and collimation and the conditions under which they can occur. For that matter, we have yet to identify the mechanism(s) through which the jet accelerates energetic particles – is it the commonly invoked diffusive shock acceleration process or is another mechanism, such as magnetic reconnection, required? Do AGNs and GRBs accelerate hadrons, and if so, do they accelerate them to ultra-high energies and are there high-energy neutrinos associated with them? MeV gamma-ray astronomy, enabled by technological advances that will be realized in the coming decade, will provide a unique and indispensable perspective on the persistent mysteries of the energetic universe. This White Paper is the second of a two-part series highlighting the most well-known high-energy cosmic accelerators and contributions that MeV gamma-ray astronomy will bring to understanding their energetic particle phenomena. Specifically, MeV astronomy will: 1. Determine whether AGNs accelerate CRs to ultra-high energies; 2. Provide the missing pieces for the physics of the GRB prompt emission; 3. Measure magnetization in cosmic accelerators and search for acceleration via reconnection.

Venters, Tonia M.↗

Reducing V&V Cost of Flight Critical Systems: Myth or Reality?

This paper presents an overview of NASA research program on the V&V of flight critical systems. Five years ago, NASA started an effort to reduce the cost and possibly increase the effectiveness of V&V for flight critical systems. It is the right time to take a look back and realize what progress has been made. This paper describes our overall approach and the tools introduced to address different phases of the software lifecycle. For example, we have improved testing by developing a statistical learning approach tor defining test cases. The tool automatically identifies possible unsafe conditions by analyzing outliers in output data; using an iterative learning process, it can then generate more test cases that represent potentially unsafe regions of operation. At the code level, we have developed and made available as open source a static analyzer for C and C++ programs called IKOS. We have shown that IKOS is very precise in the analysis of embedded C programs (very few false positives) and a bit less for regular C and C++ code. At the design level, in collaboration with our NRA partners, we have developed a suite of analysis tools for Simulink models. The analysis is done in a compositional framework for scalability.

Brat, Guillaume P.↗

Polarimetric Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is an important parameter of liquid clouds and is crucial to understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. It couples boundary layer aerosol composition, size and concentration with cloud reflectivity. It affects cloud evolution, precipitation, radiative forcing, global climate and, through observation, can be used to partially monitor the first indirect effect. With its unique combination of multi-wavelength, multi-angle, total and polarized reflectance measurements, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) retrieves Nd with relatively few assumptions. The approach involves measuring cloud optical thickness, mean droplet extinction cross-section and cloud physical thickness. Polarimetric observations are capable of measuring the effective variance, or width, of the droplet size distribution. Estimating cloud geometrical thickness is also an important component of the polarimetric Nd retrieval, which is accomplished using polarimetric measurements in a water vapor absorption band to retrieve the amount of in-cloud water vapor and relating this to physical thickness. We highlight the unique abilities and quantify uncertainties of the polarimetric approach. We validate the approach using observational data from the North Atlantic and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES targets specific phases in the seasonal phytoplankton lifecycle and ocean-atmosphere linkages. This study provides an excellent opportunity for the RSP to evaluate its approach of sensing Nd over a range of concentrations and cloud types with in situ measurements from a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP). The RSP and CDP, along with an array of other instruments, are flown on the NASA C-130 aircraft, which flies in situ and remote sensing legs in sequence. Cloud base heights retrieved by the RSP compare well with those derived in situ (R=0.83) and by a ceilometer aboard the R.V. Atlantis (R=0.79). Comparing geometric mean values from 12 science flights throughout the NAAMES-1 and NAAMES-2 campaigns, we find a strong correlation between Nd retrieved by the RSP and CDP (R=0.96). A linear least squares fit has a slope of 0.92 and an intercept of 0.3 cm−3. Uncertainty in this comparison can be attributed to cloud 3D effects, nonlinear liquid water profiles, multilayered clouds, measurement uncertainty, variation in spatial and temporal sampling, and assumptions used within the method. Radiometric uncertainties of the RSP measurements lead to biases on derived optical thickness and cloud physical thickness, but these biases largely cancel out when deriving Nd for most conditions and geometries. We find that a polarimetric approach to sensing Nd is viable and the RSP is capable of accurately retrieving Nd for a variety of cloud types and meteorological conditions.

Droplet concentration↗

A Structured, Model-Based Systems Engineering Methodology for Operations System Design

Two widely accepted techniques for lowering the cost and risk of developing systems are (1) the use of a defined systems engineering (SE) process or methodology and (2) the reuse of existing (previously built) system components. The first technique is represented, for example, in materials published by NASA (e.g., NASA Systems Engineering Handbook) or by professional societies such as INCOSE (International Council on Systems Engineering). Well-formed SE techniques provide value by establishing the proper scope of the system (e.g., requirements), and by identifying and resolving problems relatively early in project lifecycles, when fixes are less expensive. The second technique (reuse) is applied most commonly to hardware and software; it seeks to avoid replicating design and implementation costs while also reducing risk by placing proven capabilities into operational use. In this paper, we outline a methodology combining these two techniques and extending reuse beyond hardware and software to foundational aspects of a Mission Operation System’s (MOS) design. We describe the system design artifacts that result (e.g., requirements, design documentation), as well as the reusable patterns and elements of the design, and their interrelationships. This approach is enabled by model-based systems engineering (MBSE) techniques and tools and is currently available in SysML form as a plug-in to MagicDraw. Additionally, usage of a rigorous MBSE approach allows for training materials and tutorials to be packaged within the overall model itself. The results of such an approach include decreased cost and risk during the design phase, improved ability of the MOS development team to investigate trade spaces and identify impacts to important flight-ground trade studies. Such results extend into decreased costs and risk in later phases due to improved design, decreased need for late fixes or development of "glue-ware" or scripts to fill unanticipated gaps in functionality, and improved ability to identify and plan testing and other validation activities. Finally, lower operational costs can be expected, both due to improved quality of the MOS, increased ease of maintaining updated knowledge of system configuration, and the fact that training and procedural materials are also updated at the same time as accepted system changes.

Bindschadler, Duane L.↗

JPL's Foundry Furnace: Web-Based Concurrent Engineering for Formulation

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Innovation Foundry is an enterprise tasked with shepherding space mission concepts through the formulation lifecycle. It oversees a number of “virtual teams” for the various stages of formulation. Among these is Team X, which has had considerable success over its more than 20-year history. In a Team X study, domain experts (including engineers devoted to the various spacecraft subsystems) work concurrently and collaboratively over several days to arrive at a feasible point design with a reasonable cost estimate. They use a set of linked Excel workbooks, each developed and approved by a responsible “line organization” within JPL. This toolset has served Team X well over the years, and has evolved since its inception. At the same time, the Innovation Foundry’s portfolio of formulation teams has expanded, and so has the scope of the design challenges they face. The A-Team runs workshop-like architecture studies to focus science investigations, generate mission concepts, assess feasibility, and explore trade spaces. Team Xc performs rapid point design in the style of Team X, but for CubeSats and small spacecraft, using a different toolset. Proposal teams further mature concepts to the point where they can be proposed. Recognizing the importance of trade space modeling combined with new IT services for providing and integrating data, JPL is developing the Foundry Furnace web-based software infrastructure. It will support A-Team, Team Xc, and Team X, providing study management, a catalog of hardware components, a library of re-usable analyses, and a design environment. It is a modernization of JPL’s concurrent engineering infrastructure, embracing the core concepts of Model-Based Systems Engineering, and built with modern software design philosophies.

Murphy, Jonathan↗

Towards a Methodology and Tooling for Model-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) aims to identify and assess potential risks to system technical performance requirements for the purpose of furnishing risk insights into project decisions. PRAs have traditionally been conducted manually using software with an isolated data model. As system complexity rises it becomes difficult to ensure consistency between a PRA, the evolving system design, and other engineering analyses; the techniques for conducting PRAs must evolve to meet this challenge. This work presents progress towards a methodology and tooling for conducting a PRA by leveraging data in the system model, embedded for other purposes and analyses, to conduct a PRA. An approach for identifying the appropriate probabilistic equation for each risk scenario from a standard library is presented, which is a significant step towards the quantification of the likelihood of a risk scenario occurrence. The final calculation of the likelihood of occurrence is left as an item of future work. We also present the development of preliminary tooling to carry out the methodology on a well-formed system model. The information needed to conduct the PRA is embedded in a consistent manner in a system model, so the model-based PRA can be regularly executed as the system model changes. The ability to modify the PRA in concert with lifecycle evolution affords a project the opportunity to track the extent to which system modification impacts compliance with requirements. These aspects of this model-based PRA methodology make it capable of managing risk in increasingly complex technical systems.

Schreiner, Samuel S.↗

Tropopause Laminar Cirrus and Its Role in the Lower Stratosphere Total Water Budget

Laminar cirrus are thin, extensive, isolated layers of ice clouds frequently observed in the tropical tropopause layer. Widespread laminar cirrus significantly affects tropical tropopause layer total water and thermal budget. In this study, we extract laminar cirrus from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization Level 1 attenuated total backscatter images for January 2009, in order to characterize statistical properties of laminar cirrus cloud length, base, thickness, optical depth, and layer partial ice water path. These characteristics are used to develop an algorithm identifying laminar cirrus automatically from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization Level 2 layer product for 2008–2017. The nearly 10‐year records reveal that tropopause laminar cirrus occurrence (30–40% of total cirrus) is strongly anticorrelated with the tropopause temperatures in that colder tropopause in frequent (super)saturation during boreal winter favors in situ formation of clouds. Interannually, anomalously warmer troposphere temperature (ΔT), easterly shear of the quasi‐biennial oscillation, and stronger upwelling branch of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation enhance laminar cirrus formation via cooling of the tropopause. The tropopause laminar cirrus carries ~0.05 mg/m(exp 3) (~0.5 ppmv) of ice water content during boreal winter and <0.01 mg/m(exp 3) during summer, which is anticorrelated with the seasonal variations of water vapor (H2O) observed by the Microwave Lime Sounder, indicating a temperature‐regulated partition between vapor and ice. Interannually, in cirrus‐rich region 1 ppmv decrease in H2O corresponds to 0.2–0.3 ppmv increase in ice water content. Frequently situated in (super)saturated air, tropopause laminar cirrus are likely to survive multiple lifecycles of the sublimation‐deposition processes, and may contribute up to 10% to the total water budget in the lower stratosphere. Satellites constantly observe thin, isolated, extensive layer of cirrus around the tropopause. The so‐called “laminar” cirrus occurrence and their ice amount are strongly regulated by temperature, such that colder temperatures favor more frequent (super)saturation, which results in more frequent laminar cirrus with more ice amount and therefore less water vapor. In this study we analyze laminar cirrus and water vapor from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Microwave Lime Sounder observations, and hypothesize that laminar cirrus could act as an important transient water storage and contribute to the total water budget in the lower stratosphere.

Tao Wang↗