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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanisms of Low-Level Jet Formation in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Offshore

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs), in which the wind speed attains a local maximum at low altitudes, have been found to occur in the U.S. mid-Atlantic offshore, a region of active wind energy deployment as of 2023. In contrast to widely studied regions such as the U.S. southern Great Plains and the California coastline, the mechanisms that underlie LLJs in the U.S. mid-Atlantic are poorly understood. This work analyzes floating lidar data from buoys deployed in the New York Bight to understand the characteristics and causes of coastal LLJs in the region. Application of the Hilbert–Huang transform, a frequency analysis technique, to LLJ case studies reveals that mid-Atlantic jets frequently occur during times of adjustment in synoptic-scale motions, such as large-scale temperature and pressure gradients or frontal passages, and that they do not coincide with motions at the native inertial oscillation frequency. Subsequent analysis with theoretical models of inertial oscillation and thermal winds further reveals that these jets can form in the stationary geostrophic wind profile from horizontal temperature gradients alone—in contrast to canonical LLJs, which arise from low-level inertial motions. Here, inertial oscillation can further modulate the intensity and altitude of the wind speed maximum. Statistical evidence indicates that these oscillations arise from stable stratification and the associated frictional decoupling due to warmer air flowing over a cold sea surface during the springtime land–sea breeze. These results improve our conceptual understanding of mid-Atlantic jets and may be used to better predict low-level wind speed maxima. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to identify and characterize the atmospheric mechanisms that result in an occasional low-level maximum in the wind speed off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline. Our findings show that these low-level jets form due to horizontal temperature gradients arising from fronts and synoptic systems, as well as from the land–sea breeze that forces warmer air over the cold ocean surface. This work aids predictability of such jets, improves our understanding of this coastal environment, and has implications for future deployment of offshore wind energy in this region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Robotic Technology for Exploration of Venus

Venus, the "greenhouse planet", is a scientifically fascinating place. A huge number of important scientific questions remain to be answered. Venus is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" due to the fact that it is closest to the Earth in distance and similar to Earth in size. Despite its similarity to Earth, however, the climate of Venus is vastly different from Earth's. Understanding the atmosphere, climate, geology, and history of Venus could shed considerable light on our understanding of our own home planet. The surface of Venus is a hostile environment, with an atmosperic pressure of over 90 bar of carbon dioxide, temperature of 450 C, and shrouded in sulphuric-acid clouds. Venus has been explored by a number of missions from Earth, including the Russian Venera missions which landed probes on the surface, the American Pioneer missions which flew both orbiters and atmospheric probes to Venus, the Russian "Vega" mission, which floated balloons in the atmosphere of Venus, and most recently the American Magellan mission which mapped the surface by radar imaging. While these missions have answered basic questions about Venus, telling us the surface temperature and pressure, the elevations and topography of the continents, and the composition of the atmosphere and clouds, scientific mysteries still abound. Venus is of considerable interest to terrestrial atmospheric science, since of all the planets in the solar system, it is the closest analogue to the Earth in terms of atmosphere. Yet Venus' atmosphere is an example of "runaway greenhouse effect." Understanding the history and the dynamics of Venus' atmosphere could tell us considerable insight about the workings of the atmosphere of the Earth. It also has some interest to astrobiology-- could life have existed on Venus in an earlier, pre-greenhouse-effect phase? Could life still be possible in the temperate middle-atmosphere of Venus? The geology of Venus also has interest in the study of Earth. surface robot will require new technologies; specifically, it will require electronics, scientific instruments, power supplies, and mechanical linkages designed to operate at a temperature above 450 C-hot enough to melt the solder on a standard electronic circuit board. This will require devices made from advanced semiconductor materials, such as silicon carbide, or even new approaches, such as micro-vacuum tube electronics. Such materials are now being developed in the laboratory.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Historical global Earth System Model simulations with E3SM's dynamic root module

This data package contains global-scale Earth System Model simulations run with DOE's E3SM Model. The package includes one set of simulations run in the default configuration and a second set of simulations run with the dynamic root module enabled. These two datasets can be used to assess the impact that dynamic roots have on Land Surface fluxes such as carbon and water. The outputs are provided here on a 0.5 x 0.5 global grid at monthly resolution. The simulations were run with atmospheric forcing from the Global Soil Wetness Project. We provide specifically here Gross Primary Production, Transpiration, relative root fraction per soil layer as well as Air Temperature, Precipitation and all the parameterizations used for the simulations. Our purpose for generating and analyzing these simulations was to assess the role that root dynamics and foraging for water has in the recovery timescale of ecosystems following climate perturbation. All data provided are in the "netcdf" format using standard CF-1 (Climate and Forecast) Convention. The data are broken up into 20 year chunks to facilitate easier read-in. The data are all machine readable using various software platforms including Matlab, NCO, Panoply and GrADS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analyzing Machine Learning Predictions of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Spectral Difference Over Snow-Covered Terrain in High Mountain Asia

Snow is an important component of the terrestrial freshwater budget in high mountainAsia (HMA) and contributes to the runoff in Himalayan rivers through snowmelt. Despitethe importance of snow in HMA, considerable spatiotemporal uncertainty exists across the different estimates of snow water equivalent for this region. In order to better estimate snow water equivalent, radiative transfer models are often used in conjunction with microwave brightness temperature measurements. In this study, the efficacy of support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning technique, to predict passive microwave brightness temperature spectral difference (1Tb) as a function of geophysical variables (snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow temperature, and snow density) is explored through a sensitivity analysis. The use of machine learning (as opposed to radiative transfer models) is a relatively new and novel approach for improving snow water equivalent estimates. The Noah-MP land surface model within the NASALand Information System framework is used to simulate the hydrologic cycle over HMA and model geophysical variables that are then used for SVM training. The SVMsserve as a nonlinear map between the geophysical space (modeled in Noah-MP) andthe observation space (1Tb as measured by the radiometer). Advanced MicrowaveScanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System measured passive microwave brightness temperatures over snow-covered locations in the HMA region are used as training data during the SVM training phase. Sensitivity of well-trained SVMs to each Noah-MP modeled state variable is assessed by computing normalized sensitivity coefficients. Sensitivity analysis results generally conform with the known first-order physics. Input states that increase volume scattering of microwave radiation, such as snow density and snow water equivalent, exhibit a plurality of positive normalized sensitivity coefficients. In general, snow temperature was the most sensitive input to the SVM predictions. The sensitivity of each state is location and time dependent. The signs of normalized sensitivity coefficients that indicate physical irrationality are ascribed to significant cross-correlation between Noah-MP simulated states and decreased SVM prediction capability at specific locations due to insufficient training data. SVM prediction pitfalls do exist that serve to highlight the limitations of this particular machine learning algorithm.

high mountain Asia↗
NASA NTRS2024

Characterizing the California Current System through Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity

Characterizing temperature and salinity (T-S) conditions is a standard framework in oceanography to identify and describe deep water masses and their dynamics. At the surface, this practice is hindered by multiple air–sea–land processes impacting T-S properties at shorter time scales than can easily be monitored. Now, however, the unsurpassed spatial and temporal coverage and resolution achieved with satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) allow us to use these variables to investigate the variability of surface processes at climate-relevant scales. In this work, we use SSS and SST data, aggregated into domains using a cluster algorithm over a T-S diagram, to describe the surface characteristics of the California Current System (CCS), validating them with in situ data from uncrewed Saildrone vessels. Despite biases and uncertainties in SSS and SST values in highly dynamic coastal areas, this T-S framework has proven useful in describing CCS regional surface properties and their variability in the past and in real time, at novel scales. This analysis also shows the capacity of remote sensing data for investigating variability in land–air–sea interactions not previously possible due to limited in situ data.

Marisol García-Reyes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Release 2.5 QC Longwave Monthly Data in Native Format (SRB_REL2.5_QCLW_MONTHLY)

The surface radiation budget data include downward and net longwave fluxes, as well as three meteorological parameters for the entire globe between 07/01/1983 and 06/30/2005. These parameters were derived within the Quality-Check LW (QCLW) algorithm of the NASA World Climate Research Programme/Global Energy and Water-Cycle Experiment (WCRP/GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=Ranges from 1 degree (tropics and subtropics) to 120 degrees (the poles).; Temporal_Resolution=monthly; Temporal_Resolution_Range=monthly].

RADIATIVE FLUX↗
NASA NTRS2021

Jobos Bay Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Analyze Shoreline Changes and Understand the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southern Puerto Rico

Jobos Bay is located on the southern coast of Puerto Rico, which is known for intense hurricane seasons and increased seasonal storm surge. Scientists at Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR) are concerned that sea level rise will exacerbate coastal damage from these weather events. Using NASA Earth observations, our team analyzed coastal change, land use land cover change (LULC), mangrove forest extent, and water quality of Jobos Bay. Using Google Earth Engine, we evaluated coastal change and mangrove forest habitat within the study region by classifying NASA Earth observation imagery. We created historic LULC composite images to observe how land use changes over time and improve understanding of urbanization in the watershed. Leveraging previous water quality studies, our team compared water quality datasets generated by the Optical Reef and Coastal Area Assessment (ORCAA) tool to in situ sensors provided by JBNERR partners to understand the overall quality of water in the study area with respect to turbidity, chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations. We discovered that 17% of the reserve has shifted from land to water since 1997 and lost 4.85 square kilometers of mangrove habitat over the past decade. Results from this study will inform the scientists of JBNERR and community members of the regional impacts of sea level rise. Being the first comprehensive study done in the estuary in nearly a decade, this serves as a baseline for future conservation efforts and research in the estuary.

Olivia Spencer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to generate gridded extreme precipitation data sets for global land areas with limited in situ measurements

There is a strong need for gridded observational data sets that describe the climatology of extreme precipitation across the globe; such data sets are critical for quantifying precipitation extremes and their corresponding influence on large perturbations on surface and groundwater systems and flooding. Machine learning (ML) methods can be used to generate pseudo in situ measurements of the climatology of extreme precipitation for land regions with poor sampling by matching relevant geographic (e.g., orography) and atmospheric (e.g., surface temperature, precipitation, and pressure) variables for densely sampled regions and those with limited geographic sampling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Early Spring in Europe: A Result of More Dominant North-Atlantic Southwesterlies?

Abstract A 1999 study reports an advancement of spring in Europe by 0.2 days per year in the 30 years since 1960. Our analysis indicates that this trend results directly from a change in the late-winter surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic: the southwesterly direction became more dominant, and the speed of these southwesterlies increased slightly. Splitting the 52-year NCEP reanalysis dataset into the First Half, FH (1948-1973)), and the Second Half, SH (1974-1999), we analyze the wind direction for the February mean at three sites at 45N: site A at 30W, site B at 20W, and site C at 10W. The incidence (number of years) of the southwesterlies in SH Vs. (FH) at these sites respectively increased in SH as follows: 24(18), 19(12), 14(l 1); whereas the incidence of northeasterlies decreased: 0(2), 1(2), and 1(6). When the February mean wind is southwesterly, the monthly mean sensible heat flux from the ocean at these sites takes zero or slightly negative values, that is, the surface air is warmer than the ocean. Analyzing the scenario in the warm late winter 1990, we observe that the sensible heat flux from the ocean surface in February 1990 shows a "tongue" of negative values extending southwest from southern England to 7N. This indicates that the source of the maritime air advected into Europe lies to the south of the "tongue." Streamline analysis suggests that the Southwestern or southcentral North Atlantic is the source. For February 1990, we find strong, ascending motions over Europe at 700 mb, up to -0.4 Pa/s as monthly averages. Associated with the unstable low-levels of the troposphere are positive rain and cloud anomalies. Thus, positive in situ feedback over land in late winter (when shortwave absorption is not significant) apparently further enhances the surface temperature through an increase in the greenhouse effect due to increased water vapor and cloudiness.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Low-Degree Time-Variable Gravity and Geophysical/Climatic Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in J2, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. J2 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before turning back, signifymg a large, anomalous mass redistribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and in land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Besides 52, the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, the SLR-observed S2,l tesseral (and 53 zonal) coefficients compare favorably with those computed from the NCEP atmospheric pressure field. There is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El NinoLa Nina, but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Time-Variable Gravity and Ocean Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such gravity variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique for the past quarter century, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 undergoes a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle, but large interannual anomalies have been observed, notably during 1998-2002. Intriguing evidences for the cause of the latter have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and perhaps in related land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Without firm estimates for the steric effects (which have no gravity signal), we will point out possible underestimation of OGCMs with respect to temporal variabilities. Besides J2, SLR also derived time series for other low-degree gravity components. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El Nino/La Nina. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations, and anticipate the utility of GRACE-type space gravity observations with much higher spatial resolution.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Estimating Surface Soil Moisture from SMAP Observations Using a Neural Network Technique

A Neural Network (NN) algorithm was developed to estimate global surface soil moisture for April 2015 to March 2017 with a 2-3 day repeat frequency using passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, surface soil temperatures from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) land modeling system, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-based vegetation water content. The NN was trained on GEOS-5 soil moisture target data, making the NN estimates consistent with the GEOS-5 climatology, such that they may ultimately be assimilated into this model without further bias correction. Evaluated against in situ soil moisture measurements, the average unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), correlation and anomaly correlation of the NN retrievals were 0.037 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), 0.70 and 0.66, respectively, against SMAP core validation site measurements and 0.026 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), 0.58 and 0.48, respectively, against International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) measurements. At the core validation sites, the NN retrievals have a significantly higher skill than the GEOS-5 model estimates and a slightly lower correlation skill than the SMAP Level-2 Passive (L2P) product. The feasibility of the NN method was reflected by a lower ubRMSE compared to the L2P retrievals as well as a higher skill when ancillary parameters in physically-based retrievals were uncertain. Against ISMN measurements, the skill of the two retrieval products was more comparable. A triple collocation analysis against Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture retrievals showed that the NN and L2P retrieval errors have a similar spatial distribution, but the NN retrieval errors are generally lower in densely vegetated regions and transition zones.

Soil Moisture Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Measuring Surface Bulk Elemental Composition on Venus

The extreme surface environment (462 C, 93 bars pressure) of Venus makes subsurface measurements of its bulk elemental composition extremely challenging. Instruments landed on the surface of Venus must be enclosed in a pressure vessel. The high surface temperatures also require a thermal control system to keep the instrumentation temperatures within their operational range for as long as possible. Since Venus surface probes can currently operate for only a few hours, it is crucial that the lander instrumentation be able to make statistically significant measurements in a short time. An instrument is described that can achieve such a measurement over a volume of thousands of cubic centimeters of material by using high energy penetrating neutron and gamma radiation. The instrument consists of a Pulsed Neutron Generator (PNG) and a Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS). The PNG emits isotropic pulses of 14.1 MeV neutrons that penetrate the pressure vessel walls, the dense atmosphere and the surface rock. The neutrons induce nuclear reactions in the rock to produce gamma rays with energies specific to the element and nuclear process involved. Thus the energies of the detected gamma rays identify the elements present and their intensities provide the abundance of each element. The GRS spectra are analyzed to determine the Venus elemental composition from the spectral signature of individual major, minor, and trace radioactive elements. As a test of such an instrument, a Schlumberger Litho Scanner oil well logging tool was used in a series of experiments at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The Litho Scanner tool was mounted above large (1.8 m x 1.8 m x.9 m) granite and basalt monuments and made a series of one-hour elemental composition measurements in a planar geometry more similar to a planetary lander measurement. Initial analysis of the results shows good agreement with target elemental assays

Venus↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncrewed Lunar Surface Operations and Support Activities

Sustained human presence on the surface of the Moon and future missions to Mars require increased independence from surface crews and Earth-based mission control to operate efficiently, safely, and reliably. The time for surface crews to perform tasks will be limited. Extravehicular activities by surface personnel are burdensome and time-consuming, even when a continuous human presence on the surface occurs. Identifying and balancing human/automation roles and tasks and infusing automation and autonomy practices early in a system’s lifecycle will be essential to achieve mission objectives. Among these objectives are attaining a sustained human presence, improving performance and mission effectiveness, reducing operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, and ensuring operations that are robust to communication delays. To achieve these objectives, an operational shift toward increased automation and autonomy with less reliance on humans is needed. Uncrewed lunar surface operations and support activities occur when surface crews are not present or are independent of surface crew timeline activities requiring no surface crew oversight or intervention. These uncrewed surface opportunities can also be planned to minimize crew workload that avoids routine maintenance and support tasks, thus maximizing crew exploration time. Uncrewed preparations such as staging and prepositioning equipment and materials before the crew arrives could improve crew task efficiency. Additional opportunities exist to conduct uncrewed science, exploration, and utilization. Uncrewed surface architecture functions can include science and exploration; habitation; launch and landing support; surface communication and navigation; surface power generation and distribution; human surface mobility; lifting, handling, manipulating; excavation, construction, and site preparation; logistics management; maintenance and repair; surface resource utilization; integrated site operations and shared support services (e.g., site scheduling/prioritization, dust mitigation/contamination control, and surface safety). Early robotic lunar surface campaigns will provide information on the availability of resources, such as oxygen and water, and demonstrate surface-based technologies. After the Artemis III human lunar return mission, a series of landers will deliver surface systems, cargo, supplies, science packages, spare parts, and commodities. A balance of crewed and uncrewed surface operations will enable a sustained lunar surface presence at the South Pole of the Moon at a site that will be known as the Artemis Base Camp (ABC). It is envisioned that base camp operations on and around the Moon will then help prepare for the mission durations and activities needed to support the first human mission to Mars. Before long-duration crew missions to the base camp can occur, the necessary surface infrastructure will be pre-deployed and verified operational. Surface assets will be teleoperated and remotely managed from Earth. Additionally, robotic and short-duration crewed missions to the ABC will ensure the site’s merit to achieve long-term science objectives, availability of usable resources, and that terrain, seasonal variations, and illumination conditions are acceptable. ABC will consist of different areas where specific functions and services are rendered, including: • Launch and Landing Area • Habitation Area • Power Production Area • Resource Areas Launch and Landing Area—The launch and landing area will support associated functions for the arrival and departure of vehicles, such as crewed landing and ascent and uncrewed cargo deliveries and offloading. It will evolve from an unimproved site at the beginning of the exploration campaign to a more sustainable landing and launch area that can support repeated arrivals and departures. Initial uncrewed Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) surface operations may include emplacement of navigation beacons and communication equipment, real-time video and photography of landing/liftoff events, and element repositioning, such as portable utility power (PUP) (applicable for other landed assets at other areas). Site preparations, such as surface leveling, soil compaction, and berm/path construction, may be needed for a more sustainable launch and landing area capable of accommodating vehicles that are increasingly more reusable and reduce the effects of plume surface interactions and ejecta impacts on nearby surface assets. During the ABC missions, cargo and logistics will be delivered to the lunar surface via robotic cargo landers before the crew arrives. These shipments, which can arrive in pressurized logistics carriers, will deliver the logistics necessary to support a crewed mission and include items such as food, water, equipment spares, etc. Providing the capability to retrieve, offload, and transport the logistics closer to the ABC site before the arrival of the crew will increase the overall efficiency of crew operations once they arrive. In the sustained phase of exploration, other supporting services may be needed, such as lander propellant servicing, surface power services, commodity refreshes, and additional inspection, maintenance, and repair capabilities, to sustain a cadence of extended personnel stays and cargo arrivals and departures. Habitation Area—Uncrewed support to surface habitation could involve supporting activation and pre-entry operations of the habitat while the crew is in orbit at the Gateway outpost preparing for a surface landing. Surface Habitat (SH) uncrewed operations may include bringing the cabin environment to a habitable temperature and air mix and activating other critical crew support systems. Potential crop production uncrewed tasks in the SH could also include autonomous watering and tending. Additionally, when the crew departs, the SH enters dormancy for the long period of uncrewed operation. A logistical staging area could also be collocated near the SH. If so, staging operations for crew supplies, waste re-location, and recycling operations may be opportunities for uncrewed operations. Power Production Area—The Fission Surface Power (FSP) element and its supporting distribution equipment provide power to surface elements as needed across the ABC to supplement day-to-day operations and survive lunar nights. Uncrewed support of this power system includes any initial LTV-assisted deployments of cables and other distributed equipment, associated electrical connections, and system testing and activation operations. Robotically performing some inspections, maintenance, or repair tasks on the power distribution equipment could reduce the surface crew workload. Resource Area— Uncrewed resource prospecting, mapping, and characterizing possible resource sites is likely to be time-consuming and represents an opportunity for uncrewed operations between crewed missions. Uncrewed mobile equipment operations will be needed in the extreme environments of permanently shadowed locations where resource extractions occur. As In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) pilot plant operations begin, uncrewed surface support activities with available mobile and portable assets (LTV, PUP, etc.) will better support these operations. Any produced commodities can be stored at a centralized storage location for future use. Also associated with these operations is the use of mobile robotic excavators for resource acquisition and robotic/autonomous regolith processing. The waste tailings generated during excavation and regolith processing would also need to be transported and deposited at a dedicated location. Surface assets will continue operating between crew visits to maintain surface capabilities, conduct lunar surface science, technology demonstrations, and public outreach opportunities. Additionally, certain sustaining tasks that would consume valuable crew time could be performed before crew arrival, or after their departure. This capability may offer more affordable options to construct, activate, test, and maintain a broad set of surface assets. Telerobotically operated human surface mobility systems, such as the LTV and Pressurized Rover (PR), can be utilized for various tasks. Surface environmental conditions pose a distinct challenge for all these activities. Surface illumination and localized shadows are one such factor. Night-survival operations could consist of thermal management, battery pre-charging, and load shedding. Some surface systems may hibernate through the night and then awake and continue nominal operations. Uncrewed mobile assets may use a more adaptive approach to optimize their power and operations; one method is to follow the sunlight. Night-survival operations may be initiated remotely by teleoperation, automated, or accomplished by supervised autonomous operation. The ability to pre-deploy and control remote assets in orbit or on Mars before the arrival of the mission crew is a key capability that can be simulated on the moon. The base camp provides a venue where these advanced operational concepts, technologies, and autonomous methods and techniques, including the incorporation of time delays to simulate Earth-Mars latency can be replicated to help buy down future Mars mission risks. This paper will examine the evolution of uncrewed lunar surface operations and support activities. It will also discuss the lunar surface environmental conditions (thermal, lighting, terrain, topography, communications) along with the challenges they pose on uncrewed surface operations, and the performance of these activities with limited to minimal human interaction and/or teleoperation. Since lunar missions include Mars mission analogs, such investigation provides the framework for future uncrewed Mars mission support.

Mark E Lewis↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗