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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗

NASA NTRS2024

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Machine Learning-Derived Microbiological and Immune Signatures: Applications in Adaptive Risk Assessment of Infectious Disease During Spaceflight

Infectious diseases represent an urgent risk for spaceflight with consequences ranging from loss in crew performance to crew incapacitation or loss of life should an outbreak occur. The resident environmental microbiome on the International Space Station has been monitored through routine surveillance over almost twenty years, beginning with culture-based microbial detection which has advanced to molecular methods in recent years. This has created a wealth of data that we have begun mining to define the microbial ecology of the ISS. Summarized here is our analysis of data from the historical microbial population defined by culture-based monitoring from the past two decades, organized by their likelihood to cause disease into clinical categories. As expected, many residents of the normal microflora in environments where people work and live were detected. However, some known pathogens were also detected. As the spaceflight environment can predispose humans to infection, crew health records were used to source additional data for the set to uncover clinical relevance. Data mining was performed on crew health records to capture adverse health events that may be related to infectious disease. Machine learning, specifically Random Forest analysis, was used to analyze the microbial and crew health datasets. The symptom categories were not explained by the ranked bacteria, due to lack of sufficient data for some categories and due to poor ranking of the pathogens for others. Poor ranking of the bacteria could be due to the clinical symptoms being linked to other disease-causing factors, such as allergy or viral infection. These findings suggest a lack of relationship between bacteria detected on surfaces in the ISS and historical health events experienced by astronauts.

Kristyn Hoffman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Analysis of X-57 Rate Derivatives and Comparison to Wind Tunnel Data

Rate derivates of the wind tunnel model of X-57 were evaluated using hysteresis from computational fluid dynamics simulation and compared with that computed using the wind tunnel experimental data. To accomplish the task, hysteresis of the pitch, roll, and yaw oscillations were produced numerically using two different CFD solvers: STARCCM+ and Launch Ascent and Vehicle Analysis. The rate derivatives were computed using same parameter identification technique on CFD-based and wind tunnel-based hysteresis data. Results show CFD-based pitch rate derivatives have large error, up to 73%, while the lateral and direction derivates compared well with errors within 5% with respect to the that computed using the wind tunnel data. This may be due to lack of wind tunnel wall and sting model in the CFD simulation as well as lack of wall correction in the wind tunnel data which has larger impact on pitch than lateral and directional oscillations. Geometrical features such as the shape, slope of extremities, and enclosed area were compared between CFD-based and wind tunnel-based hysteresis. Results show that area enclosed by the hysteresis had largest influence on the accuracy of the computed rate derivatives given that shape of the hysteresis were roughly equivalent.

Seung Y. Yoo↗

NASA NTRS2025

Nevada Wildland Fires: Mapping Historical Burned Areas and Identifying Drivers of Fuel Load Growth to Inform Desert Tortoise Habitat Management in Southern Nevada

Wildfire frequency and intensity in the Mojave desert are increasing, driven by invasive grasses that outcompete native vegetation not well-adapted to wildfire. These grasses, primarily cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and red brome (Bromus rubens), and the wildfires that occur when the grasses ignite, are a serious threat to the critically endangered Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). Declining Mojave desert tortoise populations are of great concern to project partners, the Bureau of Land Management Southern Nevada District Office, the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station, and the US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service’s Arid Lands Ecology Lab, who currently lack the resources for fire recovery studies essential for informed fire and invasive grass management. To address this gap, the team utilized NASA Earth observations including Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Terra MODIS, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), to analyze trends in burned areas over the past 20 years through historic burn maps and to examine fuel load growth drivers, with a focus on invasive vegetation. These historical burn maps revealed a pattern of precipitation anomalies that strongly correlate with higher Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. Years with significant precipitation and NDVI spikes led to greater fuel load in the dry season and larger burns. Additionally, El Niño years correlated significantly with precipitation anomalies which may provide our partners with insights into burn trends and enable better allocation of fuel load treatment practices. However, while identifying drivers of fuel load growth proved feasible, a lack of in situ data hindered attempts to analyze pre-fire growth of invasive grasses compared with native grasses. Despite this limitation, the project demonstrated the feasibility of using Earth observations for wildfire and habitat management, ultimately benefiting conservation efforts for the Mojave desert tortoise.

fuel load↗

NASA NTRS2024

SupportU: Smart UAS Program for the Population by Offering Resources and Tools to the Unhoused

Global warming, challenging economic conditions, the opioid epidemic, and other widespread problems, have impacted people globally, particularly over the past several years. Preventable diseases like the common cold and the effects of heat stroke have become increasingly prevalent due to these issues. It is estimated that 150 million people of the world’s population are unhoused globally, with many dwelling in unsafe and unsanitary conditions while lacking access to basic hygienic items and other essentials. Unsanitary conditions coupled with this lack of access exacerbates and prolongs health problems and harms quality of life. Traditional methods of aid, such as homeless shelters and meal programs, face numerous challenges such as having limited reach and resources. To address these problems, the Smart UAS Program for the Population by Offering Resources and Tools to the Unhoused (SUPPORT U) utilizes Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) to deliver resources to the unhoused and those in need of basic aid, prior to and during extreme temperature conditions, and after natural disasters in rural, suburban, and urban areas. The UA is envisioned to be an autonomous aircraft capable of efficiently distributing essential supplies, including blankets, water, food, and medicine. The UAS fleet relies on advanced navigation and communication technologies to accurately identify unhoused people and efficiently and safely distribute materials to them. This will be done through a machine learning algorithm. By focusing on identified “homeless clusters”, places where unhoused individuals are concentrated, the UAS network increases access to critical resources, thereby helping to mitigate some of the external risks to the health of unhoused individuals. The UA can also be used during crises, such as by transporting supplies to medical tents that are stationed in difficult-to-reach areas suffering from natural disasters.

Samuel Beard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trace Oxygen Measurements of Asteroid Sample Storage Desiccators

The Astromaterials Curation facility at the NASA Johnson Space Center is currently curating more than 120 g of carbonaceous asteroid Bennu material as well as over 500 mg of asteroid Ryugu [1 and 2]. These astromaterials are stored in isolating desiccators and gloveboxes under a continuous purge of pure (<1 ppm O 2 ) gaseous nitrogen. The oxygen and moisture concentrations in our OSIRIS-REx sample processing gloveboxes are continuously monitored via integrated sensors; however, our sample storage desiccators lack integrated oxygen and humidity sensors. In previous studies, we used PreSens Fibox 4 trace oxygen meters and optochemical PSt9 spot sensors to measure the oxygen concentrations in candidate asteroid sample containers that had been sealed in nitrogen; we determined that Eagle stainless steel containers inhibit the ingress of external oxygen for several weeks [3]. This optochemical sensor technology allowed us to take precise, contactless measurements within a trace range of 0 to 200 ppmv O 2 . The effectiveness of the trace oxygen sensors in our container experiments inspired us to utilize them to assess the performance of our desiccators that previously lacked trace oxygen monitoring. In this study, our goal was to determine the quality of the nitrogen purge in the isolating desiccator under normal operating conditions by measuring the trace oxygen content. Utilizing optochemical sensor technology, we determined how long the oxygen concentration takes to reach an equilibrium in the desiccator; that is, determine the rate at which the oxygen diffusion into the desiccator equals the rate at which oxygen diffuses out of the desiccator via N2 purge. Additionally, we wanted to determine the oxygen concentration at this equilibrium, the state in which our desiccators are in during normal operating conditions. We tested a custom three chamber desiccator manufactured by Germfree using a PSt9 trace oxygen sensor spot that was mounted into a ¼” National Pipe Tapered (NPT) metal flow-through cell and attached it to the desiccator exhaust. The desiccator consists of top, middle, and bottom isolating chambers. The top chamber door was opened for several minutes to simulate a sample exchange, it was sealed, and then purged ~15 Standard Cubic Feet per Hour (SCFH). Oxygen measurements were automatically recorded via the Fibox 4 trace oxygen meter in 5-minute intervals over the course of a 24-hour period. Our results indicate the desiccator reached an equilibrium value of 10-15 ppm O 2 after ~5 hours (Fig. 1). This data allows us to explore standards for purging and exchange protocols that can be applied to similar types of desiccators in Hayabusa2, OSIRIS-REx, and for sample return collections. The assessment of the internal gaseous compositions of desiccators also allows us to share with the community the N 2 environment in which many of our asteroid samples and hardware are securely curated. Future measurements will include other nitrogen flow rates and measuring the trace oxygen concentration as a function of time for the levels of the previous commercial desiccator in which the Hayabusa2 sample collection was stored. We will also analyze how long the desiccators hold N2 after being disconnected from their N2 source, an extended measurement for sample security reassurance.

Curation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Additive Manufacturing Process Metric for Predicting Spatter-related Porosity in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Components fabricated using the powder bed fusion laser beam metallic (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) process comprise a multitude of sequential weld passes. Porosity defects resulting from weld pass inconsistencies are a concern for PBF materials and have a strong adverse effect on the mechanical properties. In an effort to understand and avoid spatter induced porosity, this work aims to provide a novel computational technique that can be used to quantify and predict the sequence-sensitive impact of spatter upon the PBF process stability and consequential porosity in as-printed material. A novel spatter impact AM model-based process metric (AM-PM) is introduced to model and quantify the impact that spatter has on the PBF process. The occurrence of spatter induced porosity is studied using thermal rise, lack of fusion, and spatter impact AM-PMs synchronized with porosity measured by high-resolution X-ray computed tomography. Six cylindrical specimens were designed to compare the AM-PM correlations with porosity across two different laser powers and three hatch scanning strategies. A point field based computational approach is shown to be effective for testing the influence of the different AM-PMs and interrogating the physical process conditions underlying the porosity formation. Further, characterization using optical metallography and scanning electron microscopy indicated that both keyhole and lack of fusion porosity correlated with the spatter impact AM-PM, which can be exploited to predict and control spatter related porosity by the hatch strategy. Efforts to predict porosity composition within PBF material should incorporate the PBF process disturbances that can result from spatter. The spatter impact AM-PM can be readily incorporated into the development of defect prediction models at the part scale.

Additive Manufacturing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Contracting Quality Early in the Lifecycle Using AS9145 Data Deliverables

Development schedules and a highly dynamic supply chain are a challenge to developers of complex systems produced at low volume. Flaws in designs, parts and materials availability problems, poor manufacturability, and a lack of knowledge about critical items and key process attributes can be realized well before traditional second-party quality assurance activities begin. Supplier audits and product inspections may have little mitigating effect once these foundational problems have been realized. Their impacts can be significant lifecycle disruption, cost overruns, inability to deliver to plan, and even project cancellation. AS9145, Requirements for Advanced Product Quality Planning and Production Part Approval Process, can be used to drive quality engineering practices into early development lifecycles to significantly reduce this late-cycle risk and to reduce the cost of quality overall. Since its initial publication in 2016, it has had very limited adoption by the DoD, no adoption by NASA, and sparse adoption in the aerospace and defense supply chain. A task group within the Aerospace Industries Association's (AIA) Joint Strategic Quality Council (JSQC) identified that both acquirers and suppliers see as AS9145 as a cost-adder and are hesitant to use it as an alternative to late-stage-heavy quality assurance approaches. A lack of prior use creates large capability gaps in request-for-proposal (RFP) teams, proposal teams, suppliers’ quality management systems (QMS), and in experienced personnel executing the early lifecycle approach. To create a more realizable on-ramp for using AS9145 in the space and defense sectors, the AIA JSQC task team created five deliverable requirements descriptions (DRDs) that can be used in a contract to begin to engage both parties in early lifecycle quality engineering and quality assurance activities, that reduce exposure to late-stage cost and schedule collapse due to unidentified risks in design, supply chain, and manufacturability. These DRDs drive the parties to engage in planning and analysis discussions early on to understand what production risks can be known and how they will focus resources based on safety criticality and the key elements of design and construction. The suppliers and acquirers who will produce the data and information required by the DRD will be able to incrementally evolve their QMS and the acquirer will incrementally be able to track and understand the benefits of cost shifting from late to early development phases. A white paper describing this approach and the five recommended DRDs will be published by the AIA in late 2024 or early 2025.

Jeannette Plante↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A CFD Validation Study using Artemis 1 Orbital Slosh Test Data

Advancements in liquid propellant management science and technologies are key to increasing safety, decreasing cost, and increasing payload mass of NASA space missions. Liquid propellant usually comprises a large portion of the total mass of launch vehicles and spacecraft, so predicting and controlling the motion of it are important. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) programs are critical to predicting slosh dynamics, but CFD programs require experimental validation with physically relevant test data before the results can be trusted. Low-gravity slosh test data is lacking, and most of what exists is inadequate for CFD validation. A potential slosh risk for Orion, and the lack of validated low-gravity slosh models, led to performing on-orbit slosh tests during the Artemis 1 mission to assess the impacts of slosh on the guidance, navigation, and control of Orion. This work details the validation of a coupled slosh-motion CFD model using the Orion orbital slosh test data set.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A CFD Validation Study Using Artemis 1 Orbital Slosh Test Data

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NICS (NASA Instrument Capabilities Study) Instrument Schedule and Cost Study

This paper summarizes work performed on the Flight Projects Directorate Planetary Science Projects Division (PSPD, Code 430) NICS (NASA Instrument Capabilities study) instrument schedule and cost study. Included are a short summary of the original NICS (NASA, 2008), and the design and approach, data collection, analysis, preliminary findings and recommendations from select areas of the current study. The NICS (2008) was chartered by then NASA Chief Engineer Michael Ryschkewitsch and chaired by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) engineer, John Leon. The focus was to identify problem areas in instrument development and, if possible, to offer solutions. In the area of instrument developments, the NICS (2008) identified a lack of resources and authority to successfully manage to instrument cost and schedule requirements; and a lack of critical skills, expertise, and leadership to successfully implement unique (one-of-a-kind) high technology developments (NASA, 2008, pp. 51, 52). Additionally, the NICS (2008) found problems in requirements formulation, reviews and management; unrealistic caps and overly optimistic estimates; and externally directed changes which increased the likelihood of overrunning cost and schedule (NASA, 2008, pp.53, 54). It is noteworthy that NICS findings are consistent with previous studies at the mission level (Robbins, Schmidt & White, 2020). Five years later in 2013, the Instrument Projects Division (IPD) was established to implement and manage instrument projects greater than $20M. The IPD was known as Code 490. Its structure incorporated several of the NICS (2008) recommendations. To see if these incorporated recommendations made a difference, and to identify other potential challenges in instrument developments, two parallel studies were initiated. Originally led by the IPD, now led by the PSPD, and the Instrument and Payload Systems Engineering Branch (IPSE, Code 592), respectively, the instrument schedule and cost study and the instrument technical complexity study began in 2017. Data collection was initiated in 2020 and is on-going. This paper is limited to the IPD/PSPD study. Among other findings, preliminary data indicate IPD/PSPD project management support positively influenced instrument development as related to providing a dedicated level of support staff, including a deputy Instrument Project Manager (dIPM), reducing IPM leadership changes, and providing other project support. Next steps include continued data collection and analysis, and mapping to technical complexity data.

NICS implementation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Impurities in Neptunium Metal Using Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS

In the transmutation process, minor actinides such as neptunium, americium and curium obtained from spent nuclear fuel are incorporated into new fuel that can be placed into a fast reactor, where these elements fission into products with shorter half-lives which reduces the health and safety hazards. In order to better understand the all the involved processes, fundamental physical properties of actinides should be investigated, and for that reason, high-purity materials need to be produced. One of the main challenges in characterizing these materials is the lack of pure metal available for study, and lack of analytical methods to determine the purity. Trans-uranic elements are challenging to study because of the need to be handled in specialized facilities, safeguards concerns and they are not easily purchased and/or produced. High-purity Np metal is being produced at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in a process of direct oxide reduction developed by Squires and Lessing, with a target purity of 99.999%. The goal of this research is to develop methods to determine the impurities in the Np metal, with detection limits low enough to achieve this purity level. In this work, we have used several ICP-MS and ICP OES techniques, but the focus was the method development using a recently acquired Double-Focusing Sector Field Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (SF-ICP-MS). To produce the Np metal, approximately 20 g of the neptunium oxide powder was calcined at 800 oC for 6 h in a magnesium oxide crucible, which is placed inside a stainless steel crucible, that goes into the Hot Uniaxial Press (HUP) furnace insert. After the calcining step, the Np oxide was mixed with approximately 9 g of calcium metal and 100 g of ultra-dry calcium chloride. The HUP furnace was heated in a ramp rate of 50 oC min -1 up to 1000 oC. When the reaction mixture reached 850 oC, a tantalum stirrer was activated at 100 rpm. After the tantalum stirrer was removed and the mixture cooled overnight, the MgO crucible was opened with a hammer and chisel to retrieve the Np metal button at the bottom of the reaction mixture. Prior to the dissolution process, the surface contaminants of the sample were removed. The Np button was washed in 10 mL of ultra-pure water for 1 min, with a faint reaction observed on the surface, indicating the presence of Ca metal. The water-washed sample was placed in a tube with 2 M HCl for only 3 s, as a vigorous reaction in the button surface was observed. The leachates were saved for further analysis. The sample was then rinsed with ultra-pure water and air-dried prior to dissolution. The cleaned sample was placed in a PTFE beaker and 25 mL of 6 M HCl and 150 µL of 24 M HF were added. After 10 minutes of reaction, the beaker was placed on a hot plate for 1 h and 30 min, followed by the addition of 1 mL of 16 M HNO3 and allowed to react for a further 1 h and 20 min. The sample was removed from heat and 10 mL of HNO3 16 M was added to react with the HCl. The beaker was covered and left for overnight reaction, producing a solution with approximately 20 mL of final volume. A Quadrupole Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (Q-ICP-MS, Perkin Elmer ELAN DRC II Q-ICP-MS) was used to obtain qualitative mass spectra for the dissolution blank, each of the leachates and the dissolved sample. In the water leachate spectrum mainly Ca and Mg were observed, while the acid wash had a similar peak pattern to the one observed for the Np metal sample, indicating that the process not only removed surface contamination, but also reacted with the sample itself. In the Np material spectrum, Ta and actinides were identified as candidates for major contaminants, as the most intense peaks corresponded to the mass-to-charge ratios of these elements. Minor contaminants included Al, Au, Ca, Cr, Fe, I, Na, Nb, Pb, Sn, Ti, Tl, V, Y. The presence of impurities in the material could have originated from several sources, such as the materials used for the casting process, the use of impure NpO2 or contamination of reagents and materials used for the analysis. Some of the isotopes listed as potential contaminants are susceptible to spectral interferences, so Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS (Nu Instruments Attom ES HR-ICP-MS) was used for the quantitative analysis. For each isotope determined, several items were evaluated: raw signal of a blank solution, sensitivity and determination coefficient of calibration curves, possibility of interferences and comparison of results obtained for at least two resolving powers (RP): 300 and 4000. The evaluation of the signal in a blank solution can indicate if a spectral interference from the plasma gas and/or the solvent was successfully resolved (commonly observed for 52Cr+/40Ar12C+, for example). It is important to highlight that a signal reduction is expected when a higher RP is used, as the ion beam transmission is decreased by the use of narrower slits

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

bayesian structural time series↗

DOE OSTI2020

Innovation in Radiological Security, Part 2 of 2 – Insights into Developing a Cloud-hosted Security Technology

A Sentry Remote Monitoring System (Sentry-RMS) is a stand-alone security system that provides detection, assessment, and communication of priority alarms as an additional means of thwarting internal and external threats to sites that maintain radiological material. The SEntry-RMS CommUnications and REsponse (Sentry-SECURE) platform is an optional feature of the Sentry-RMS that relays priority alarm information to the identified response stakeholders. Sentry-SECURE is hosted in a cloud environment that abstracts the data owner’s and data consumer’s platforms to allow for greater information sharing. This promotes situational awareness amongst authorized users and enables future innovation among modern response platforms. When securely architecting a cloud solution such as this, the use of design paradigms can be an effective tool to increase the accuracy and reliability of cyber- and information-security-related decisions made throughout the development process. This approach also supports the categorization of design considerations into three levels: industry concepts, project approaches, and data protections for digital processes. Industry concepts consist of the notional underpinnings that guide or motivate a security process, system, or design but often lack any tangible attributes. Project approaches represent decisions made during the design and development process to prioritize a solution, method, or practice above another that may provide a comparable functional output but lacks a desired security benefit. Data protections for digital processes represent the selection, integration, and implementation of specific controls for a given asset. This paper will explore specific examples of how Sentry-SECURE has been designed to account for considerations at each of these three levels, while balancing the operational intent of the platform with the security enhancements necessary to maintain data integrity, availability, and confidentiality.

assessment, RMS, security, physical, cloud, Cyber ↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Cell Free and Immobilization Technologies (CFIT)

Today, several key factors negatively impact the production of fuels and chemicals from renewable sources. Common hindrances in the biological production of biochemicals are: (1) end-product or intermediate toxicity to the microbial biocatalyst, (2) the diversion of carbon to biomass formation, and (3) co-production of undesired byproducts. A particularly attractive alternative is to eliminate the biocatalyst entirely and instead operate the desired metabolic pathways in isolation, thus circumventing the roadblocks of biological toxicity, lower yields, and lack of specificity. However, cell-free enzyme systems still suffer from low productivities owing in part to the effects of free diffusion of intermediates, lack of long term enzyme stability, cofactor cost or inefficient recycling rates, and finally, the cost of enzyme production/purification. This project represents a new effort to propose innovative and cost competitive routes to producing biochemicals from a variety of feedstocks using cell free approaches. These routes will help reduce the current risk and cost associated with classical cell free production. Cell free technologies show promise for application to the production of toxic/inhibitory products or products difficult to separate from microbial growth media and can help reduce the production barriers in multiple areas of biological conversion of feedstocks to biochemicals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

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