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DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Polarimetry Data with Angular Uncertainties

For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Sensor Data Accuracy within Gazebo/ROS for High-Precision Autonomous In-Space Robotic Operations

Modeling high-precision in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing operations in a simulated environment is a critical step in the development of robotic systems that will be used to autonomously assemble large-scale structures in space. Limited facility size and high costs for manufacturing prototypes make it challenging to conduct full-scale operational testing under appropriate environmental conditions; therefore, testing in a modular, high-fidelity simulation environment is necessary for verification and validation of technology and architecture designs prior to launch. Several modeling and simulation environments exist both within NASA and industry that can be used to test robotic system design and operations, including the widely used commercial tool Gazebo integrated with Robotic Operating System software. Because the performance of autonomous robotic systems relies heavily on the quality of sensor input data, this paper focuses on assessing the accuracy of pose data from an optical sensor model in the Gazebo environment against the behavior of real hardware. The results of the tests will help developers using Gazebo for large-scale, high-precision simulation to account for modeling inaccuracies within their robotic control system algorithms.

simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient graph representation framework for chemical molecule similarity tasks

Graph data has emerged in numerous scientific domains and machine learning techniques have been widely used for analysis and learning of diverse data for prediction and decision. Machine learning techniques can readily address complex problems by leveraging their structural information. But graphs cannot be directly used for existing machine learning algorithms unless encoded as vectors. The problem of efficient representation of graphs is a substantial challenge in graph machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage framework for the representation of chemical molecule graphs based on the strengths of Graph Isomorphism Networks (GINs) and Siamese autoencoders. In the first stage, the GIN model is constructed and trained using the structural information of chemical molecule graphs. Node attributes, edge attributes, and edge indices are used as input data, while graph attributes are used as labels. The GIN model effectively captures the structural characteristics of graphs and can accurately predict graph attributes, i.e., molecular properties. It also generates Graph Embeddings, represented as vectors that encode the structural information of graphs. In the second stage, Graph Embedding vectors are further optimized for downstream similarity tasks while preserving the graph structural information. The Siamese autoencoder is constructed and trained, which reduces the dimensionality of the Graph Embedding vectors, while maximizing the preservation of structural information in the original high-dimensional vectors. The resulting low-dimensional Graph Embeddings can be effectively utilized for tasks such as approximate nearest neighbor search. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in accurately predicting graph similarity.

Ma, Jiaji↗

DOE OSTI2022

20 Year Daily Average Modeled Velocity and Discharge for Openwater Season at Five Communities on Kuskokwim River, Alaska

This dataset includes modeled velocity and discharge at five communities in the middle Kuskokwim River region: Aniak, Chuathbaluk, Crooked Creek, Red Devil and Stony River. Modeled velocities and discharge represent daily averages calculated for the openwater season (OWS) from June 1 - October 18 over the 20 year period 2000-2019 using the raw data described below and included in this archive; full details of methodology are described in (Brown et al. submitted to Renewable Energy). Raw data inputs to inform the modeling process include in-situ measurements of 1) discharge with an acoustic Doppler current meter (ADCP, 600kHz Workhorse Rio Grande by Teledyne RD Instruments) and a global positioning receiver (GPS, Trimble 5700, 5800 and R8) utilizing Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS mode over 1-2 days at each site in 2009 or 2010 (Ravens 2014), and 2) river stage with a water level logger (HOBO U20-001-01 by Onset) over 2-9 weeks at each site (Ravens 2014), 3) in addition to a 20 year long-term discharge record collected at the USGS stream gage site in Crooked Creek (USGS 2016). Raw data (discharge and stage) are included in this archive for two additional communities: Lower Kalskag and Sleetmute, where modeled velocities were not calculated due to equipment failure or loss. The USGS stream gage data at Crooked Creek (USGS 2016) and stream gage methodology (Turnipseed and Sauer 2010) are publicly available online, so the data are not duplicated here.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparative Modelling of the Spectra of Cool Giants

Our ability to extract information from the spectra of stars depends on reliable models of stellar atmospheres and appropriate techniques for spectral synthesis. Various model codes and strategies for the analysis of stellar spectra are available today. Aims. We aim to compare the results of deriving stellar parameters using different atmosphere models and different analysis strategies. The focus is set on high-resolution spectroscopy of cool giant stars. Methods. Spectra representing four cool giant stars were made available to various groups and individuals working in the area of spectral synthesis, asking them to derive stellar parameters from the data provided. The results were discussed at a workshop in Vienna in 2010. Most of the major codes currently used in the astronomical community for analyses of stellar spectra were included in this experiment. Results. We present the results from the different groups, as well as an additional experiment comparing the synthetic spectra produced by various codes for a given set of stellar parameters. Similarities and differences of the results are discussed. Conclusions. Several valid approaches to analyze a given spectrum of a star result in quite a wide range of solutions. The main causes for the differences in parameters derived by different groups seem to lie in the physical input data and in the details of the analysis method. This clearly shows how far from a definitive abundance analysis we still are.

stars↗

NASA NTRS2012

Effect of Wind Speed on Aerosol Optical Depth over Remote Oceans, Based on Data from the Maritime Aerosol Network

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. The MAN archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we investigate correlations between ship-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) and near-surface wind speed, either measured (onboard or from satellite) or modeled (NCEP). According to our analysis, wind speed influences columnar aerosol optical depth, although the slope of the linear regression between AOD and wind speed is not steep (approx. 0.004 - 0.005), even for strong winds over 10m/s. The relationships show significant scatter (correlation coefficients typically in the range 0.3 - 0.5); the majority of this scatter can be explained by the uncertainty on the input data. The various wind speed sources considered yield similar patterns. Results are in good agreement with the majority of previously published relationships between surface wind speed and ship-based or satellite-based AOD measurements. The basic relationships are similar for all the wind speed sources considered; however, the gradient of the relationship varies by around a factor of two depending on the wind data used

Smirnov, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Temperature Material Property Data and Challenges to Thermal Process Model Predictions and In-Situ/Ex-Situ Measurements for Metallic Additive Manufacturing

Understanding and predicting performance properties of parts produced by metallic additive manufacturing has improved significantly over the past decade; however, difficult to measure material properties and process outcomes continue to be challenges. The qualification or certification of aerospace parts require extensive measures to quantify variable part properties in order to buy down the risk of component failure. The variability, inherent to the additive manufacturing, process adds unwanted uncertainty in the production of load critical structural components. Process modeling has proven valuable in providing predictions and context for understanding outcomes of the additive manufacturing process; however, these physically informed process models require material properties at temperatures that are difficult to measure and rarely available. Further, calibrating or validating such models is difficult because the process itself is challenging to measure. This talk will explore some of the challenges resulting from difficult to acquire input data by relating thermal process model predictions to in-situ and ex-situ optical microscopy measurements.

Process Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Formation Flying from Ground to Flight

The cost of on-orbit operations remains a significant and increasingly visible concern in the support of satellite missions. Headway has been made in automating some ground operations; however, increased mission complexity and more precise orbital constraints have compelled continuing human involvement in mission design and maneuver planning operations. AI Solutions, Inc. in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has tackled these more complex problems through the development of AutoCon as a tool for an automated solution. NASA is using AutoCon to automate the maneuver planning for the Earth Orbiter-1 (EO-1) mission. AutoCon was developed originally as a ground system tool. The EO-1 mission will be using a scaled version of AutoCon on-board the EO-1 satellite to command orbit adjustment maneuvers. The flight version of AutoCon plans maneuvers based on formation flying algorithms developed by GSFC, JPL, and other industry partners. In its fully autonomous mode, an AutoCon planned maneuver will be executed on-board the satellite without intervention from the ground. This paper describes how AutoCon automates maneuver planning for the formation flying constraints of the EO-1 mission. AutoCon was modified in a number of ways to automate the maneuver planning on-board the satellite. This paper describes how the interface and functionality of AutoCon were modified to support the on-board system. A significant component of this modification was the implementation of a data smoother, based on a Kalman filter, that ensures that the spacecraft states estimated by an on-board GPS receiver are as accurate as possible for maneuver planning. This paper also presents the methodology use to scale the AutoCon functionality to fit and execute on the flight hardware. This paper also presents the modes built that allow the incremental phasing in of autonomy. New technologies for autonomous operations are usually received with significant, and probably appropriate trepidation. A number of safeguards have been designed in both AutoCon and the interfacing systems to alleviate the potential of mission-impacting anomalies from the on-board autonomous system. This paper describes the error checking, input data integrity validation and limits set on maneuvers in AutoCon and the on-board system.

Chapman, Keith B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

Prince, Andy↗

NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Formation Flying from the Ground to Flight

The cost of on-orbit operations remains a significant and increasingly visible concern in the support of satellite missions. Headway has been made in automating some ground operations; however, increased mission complexity and more precise orbital constraints have compelled continuing human involvement in mission design and maneuver planning operations. AI Solutions, Inc. in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has tackled these more complex problems through the development of AutoCon(TM) as a tool for an automated solution. NASA is using AutoCon(TM) to automate the maneuver planning for the Earth Orbiter-1 (EO-1) mission. AutoCon(TM) was developed originally as a ground system tool. The EO-1 mission will be using a scaled version of AutoCon(TM) on-board the EO-1 satellite to command orbit adjustment maneuvers. The flight version of AutoCon(TM) plans maneuvers based on formation flying algorithms developed by GSFC, JPL, and other industry partners. In its fully autonomous mode, an AutoCon(TM) planned maneuver will be executed on-board the satellite without intervention from the ground. This paper describes how AutoCon(TM) automates maneuver planning for the formation flying constraints of the EO-1 mission. AutoCon(TM) was modified in a number of ways to automate the maneuver planning on-board the satellite. This paper describes how the interface and functionality of AutoCon(TM) were modified to support the on-board system. A significant component of this modification was the implementation of a data smoother, based on a Kalman filter, that ensures that the spacecraft states estimated by an on-board GPS receiver are as accurate as possible for maneuver planning. This paper also presents the methodology used to scale the AutoCon(TM) functionality to fit and execute on the flight hardware. This paper also presents the modes built into the system that allow the incremental phasing in of autonomy. New technologies for autonomous operations are usually received with significant, and probably appropriate, trepidation. A number of safeguards have been designed in both AutoCon(TM) and the interfacing systems to alleviate the potential of mission-impacting anomalies from the on-board autonomous system. This paper describes the error checking, input data integrity validation, and limits set on maneuvers in AutoCon(TM) and the on-board system.

Chapman, Keith B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Historians and paleoclimatologists have both identified the decades spanning the late-18th and early-19th centuries in many East African regions as a period of prolonged and severe drought. A challenge that emerges from both the historical evidence and the paleolimnological data that have been primarily used to characterize this drought period, however, concerns the dating of events and the characterization of their spatial character; both oral traditions and lake-core proxies cannot typically offer hydroclimate estimates with seasonal or annual resolution, nor can they provide gridded reconstructions on the order of 1° latitude and longitude. The new East African Drought Atlas (EADA) incorporates far-field dendroclimatic records and several local East African tree-ring chronologies to provide estimates of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. We present the Point-by-Point Regression technique that was used to create the EADA, the rationale for the employed input data network, and the calibration and validation skill of the derived hydroclimatic field reconstruction. We use the EADA to characterize the timing of two decadal-scale droughts, centered over the Uganda and Kenya regions, which occurred in the late 18th century and early in the 19th century and were separated by a shorter, but pronounced wet period. We characterize the spatial patterns of the associated events and the dynamical causes that that the patterns imply. The reconstructed droughts are also compared to historical and paleolimnological data to evaluate the robustness of the reconstruction and the degree of agreement across the different sources of information.

Droughts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Droughts↗

NASA NTRS2010

Land Surface Phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 Global Land Cover Dynamics Product

Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of variance suggesting that the algorithm is reliable and robust, except in the tropics where some systematic differences are observed. Finally, comparisons with ground data suggest that the algorithm is performing well, but that end of season metrics associated with vegetation senescence and dormancy have higher uncertainties than start of season metrics.

Land cover dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗

DOE OSTI2025

Derivation of at-birth neutron energy distribution of americium-beryllium source based on ISO8529 spectral data

In many practical applications, the accuracy of neutron transport calculations depends on an estimate of the energy distribution provided in the source definition. While the energy distribution of neutrons emitted by spontaneous fission sources is well-defined, the spectra of neutrons produced in (α,n) reactions in compound mixtures, such as americium-beryllium (AmBe), depend on the microstructural properties of the source material, which may vary. Although the energy of neutrons produced in nuclear reactions can be calculated from first principles, such computations require detailed knowledge of the key characteristics of the source material, which are often unknown. Here, this study focuses on deriving the at-birth neutron energy distribution for an AmBe source by applying reverse transport calculations to the externally measured high-precision spectrum recommended in the latest revision of the international standard. The derived at-birth spectrum was validated through indirect energy-sensitive neutron emission rate measurements of AmBe sources calibrated at national primary metrology institutions. The resulting at-birth neutron energy distribution serves as essential input data for radiation transport modeling, providing a validated spectrum for broader experimental and computational applications.

AmBe↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Shielding Benchmarks Using the Godiva IV Assembly

The Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) is developing a shielding benchmark using the Godiva IV assembly as a source. Its present status is reviewed herein. Even eight decades into the nuclear era, substantial work remains to develop a database of shielding benchmarks to support future nuclear development. A nuclear simulation is only as good as its supporting data, inputs, and validation basis. Uncertainty in these areas is addressed using conservatism, which adds margin and, occasionally, cost. In many shielding situations, high accuracy is not necessary because additional material is not particularly expensive. After all, 1–2 cm of lead often reduces the gamma ray dose substantially. However, in certain areas, conservatism can add unnecessary cost. These areas include mobile shielding applications such as casks, ships, microreactors, and spacecraft, where weight and, thus, margin is expensive. Although these characteristics are side benefits for NCSP shielding benchmark development, the main driver is enabling more reliable placement of criticality accident alarm systems (CAASs) in nuclear material facilities, such as those dedicated to the production of advanced reactor fuels. CAAS placement relies on more than accurate data and code validation. It also relies on sufficiently accurate materials specifications, geometry specifications, and a well-defined, alarm-producing baseline accident. All these things require tacit knowledge and understanding of the problem being evaluated. Benchmarks can help ensure this understanding.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗