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NASA NTRS2013

Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1984

Thermal control

There are basically three key ingredients to the thermal control system for any large space platform or space station. These are heat rejection (from a centralized radiator or from body mounted radiators), heat acquisition (from payloads), and heat transport (via a transport loop to the radiator). The echnical approach in the heat rejection area is to construct the radiator from individual elements so that it can be built on-orbit, is very insensitive to meteoroid and debris hazards, and is repairable. In the area of thermal acquisition and transport an added effort to better understand two phase flow in zero gravity by analysis and testing is suggested.

Haslett, B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A re-analysis of the causes of Boeing 727 'black hole landing' crashes

A review is presented of Kraft and Elworth's (1969) investigation and analysis of night visual approaches; their data is reanalyzed, and the reliability of the visual angle hypothesis is discussed. To increase pilot awareness of the hazardous illusions inherent in black hole landings, it was suggested that pilots should monitor their altimeters more often during night approaches. It was also recommended that greater attention should be given to airport design, so that the effects of black hole conditions could be minimized.

Schwirzke, Martin F. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A guide for performing system safety analysis

A general guide is presented for performing system safety analyses of hardware, software, operations and human elements of an aerospace program. The guide describes a progression of activities that can be effectively applied to identify hazards to personnel and equipment during all periods of system development. The general process of performing safety analyses is described; setting forth in a logical order the information and data requirements, the analytical steps, and the results. These analyses are the technical basis of a system safety program. Although the guidance established by this document cannot replace human experience and judgement, it does provide a methodical approach to the identification of hazards and evaluation of risks to the system.

Brush, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Balikhin, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Protecting building occupants against the inhalation of outdoor-origin aerosols

During normal operations, buildings can protect their occupants from outdoor airborne particle hazards of all types, including airborne pollutants. A long-term international research effort has advanced our knowledge of building protection physics. Recently we have developed an operationally efficient, regional-scale methodology - Regional Shelter Analysis - to account for both building protection effects and the typical distribution of people in and among buildings. To provide input to this capability, we estimate here the degree of protection afforded by the currently existing US building stock. Here, we first assemble and summarize the published literature relevant to indoor particle losses including (a) deposition to indoor surfaces, (b) losses that occur when particles penetrate through the building envelope, and (c) heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system filtration efficiencies as well as general building operating conditions. Building protection against inhaling particulate hazards varies strongly, by orders of magnitude, according to particle size, airborne particle loss rate, and to a lesser extent building use (occupancy). Protection increases modestly as particle size increases from 0.1 to 1 μm and significantly as particle size increases from 1 to 10 μm. Model results are placed in context with previously reported measurements. Suggestions for future work, including enhanced validation datasets are provided.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

April 2024 Semiannual Composite Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) Decontaminated Salt Solution (DSS) Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) is sampled semiannually for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Per request of customer, X-TTR-Z-00027, Revision 0, one SDF waste form (saltstone) sample was prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the SWPF Decontaminated Salt Solution (DSS) Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample and Z-area premix material for the April 2024 semiannual Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) sample. The sample contained 60:40 (by weight) of slag and fly ash (referred to as the “Cement-Free grout sample”). Results from the technical report support Task 2: ‘Grout Leaching Analyses’ of the Task Technical Request (TTR) prepared by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). After at least 28 days cured, a sample of the SDF waste form was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). The April 2024 semiannual Cement-Free grout sample met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 61-79.261.24 and 61-79.268.48 requirements for a non-hazardous waste form with respect to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and met the SPF WAC that was in effect at the time of the tank sampling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

October 2024 Semiannual Composite Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) Decontaminated Salt Solution (DSS) Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) is sampled semiannually for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Per request of customer, X-TTR-Z-00027, Revision 0, one SDF waste form (saltstone) sample was prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the SWPF Decontaminated Salt Solution (DSS) Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample and Z-area premix material for the October 2024 semiannual Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) sample. The sample contained 60:40 (by weight) of slag and fly ash (referred to as the “Cement-Free grout sample”). Results from the technical report support Task 2: ‘Grout Leaching Analyses’ of the Task Technical Request (TTR) prepared by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). At 64 days cured, a sample of the SDF waste form was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). The October 2024 semiannual Cement-Free grout sample met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 61-79.261.24 and 61-79.268.48 requirements for a non-hazardous waste form with respect to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and met the SPF WAC that was in effect at the time of the sample collection at SWPF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble-Based Characterization of Historical Storm Types in ERA5 over CONUS

We present Storm-Type Labeled Precipitation, a gridded dataset that classifies ERA5 precipitation over CONUS (20–50° N, 125–66° W) by storm type at 6-hourly resolution. Each grid cell/time step is assigned to one of five classes—mesoscale convective system (MCS), extratropical cyclone (ETC), hurricane (HUR), atmospheric river (AR), or other convective, with an “unidentified” code reserved for cases with no detected type. Two products are provided: (i) a TempestExtremes (TE)–only version, and (ii) a hybrid TRACK–TE version that uses TRACK for ETCs and HURs and TE for MCSs and ARs. Outputs are integer masks aligned to ERA5 precipitation, supporting storm-type attribution of rainfall, event compositing, trend analysis, and model evaluation. Future work will extend detection to high-resolution downscaled Earth system model projections to support evaluations of projected changes in hydrologic hazards that may threaten critical water and energy infrastructures.

Rastogi, Deeksha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000204624027)↗

NASA NTRS2007

Determination of Fiber Volume in Carbon/Cyanate Ester Composites Using Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA)

The resin content, and by extension the fiber volume, of carbon fiber/cyanate ester composite laminates are measured using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Conventional measurement involves acid digestion of the laminate to determine resin content. The mean difference between techniques is 0.03%. In addition to eliminating the hazards and environmental impact of standard acid digestion, the TGA technique allows quantification of errors associated with fiber volume measurements, e.g. incomplete resin removal or fiber degradation. An additional benefit of the TGA technique is a reduction in sample size requirements, allowing the examination of fiber volume changes in complex shapes.

Sovinski, Marjorie F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Small-scale coastal eddies and hazards off California: comparison of SAR and CODAR in Santa Barbara Channel

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coastal regions satellite analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

LBNL CRADA (FP00009949) with the American Public Power Association: Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (CRADA Final Report)

LBNL and APPA (the team) jointly examined the extent to which differences in distribution feeder characteristics are correlated with differences in their reliability performance when exposed to three different types of natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The team employed data-driven approaches to quantify the relationships between various measures of feeder reliability and a suite of feeder characteristics individually and jointly via a statistically-based clustering method. The team developed suggestions on how comparisons across groupings of feeders and review of the relative contributions of the constituents of SAIFI and SAIDI could be used to help prioritize utility actions to improve reliability. However, they also caution that their suggestions require further evaluation because they are based on only one year of information from a modest number of small utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1994

Total hydrocarbon analysis by ion mobility spectrometry

Astronauts must be alerted quickly to chemical leaks that compromise their health and the success of their missions. An ideal leak detector would be equally sensitive to all compounds that might constitute a hazard and insensitive to nontoxic compounds. No ideal sensor exists; thus, selection of a methodology is a series of compromises. The commonly used methods are either insensitive at the low exposure levels set by OSHA, NASA, and other organizations or are selectively insensitive to important classes of chemicals such as Freons. After extensive study and experience, the Toxicology Group at JSC has selected ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) for development into a broad range, sensitive detector. In addition to the sensing method, signal processing is important leak detection because a background signal can be expected at all times. The leak-detecting instrument must be programmed to discriminate between authentic leaks and background fluctuations caused by routine operations. The results of an evaluation of the prototype THA is presented in terms related to spacecraft operations. The evaluation included determination of instrumental parameters such as stability and response times. We also included responses to some common components of spacecraft atmospheres in pure form and in binary and ternary mixtures. The output of the four algorithms to the mixtures was found to be noticeably different. These responses are compared on the basis of their utility for signaling a chemical leak. As a means of evaluating its resistance to a falsely positive response, the THA was challenged with carbon dioxide and methane, compounds whose concentrations normally increase in spacecraft air during human habitation. The instrument showed virtually no response to these interferences. Although the prototype THA is designed for space flight, this detector is expected to be useful for field screening at chemical waste dumps and other environmentally sensitive locations.

Cross, John H.↗