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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Controlling Wind Turbines for Secondary Frequency Regulation: An Analysis of AGC Capabilities Under New Performance Based Compensation Policy: Preprint

As wind energy becomes a larger portion of the world's energy portfolio there has been an increased interest for wind turbines to control their active power output to provide ancillary services which support grid reliability. One of these ancillary services is the provision of frequency regulation, also referred to as secondary frequency control or automatic generation control (AGC), which is often procured through markets which recently adopted performance-based compensation. A wind turbine with a control system developed to provide active power ancillary services can be used to provide frequency regulation services. Simulations have been performed to determine the AGC tracking performance at various power schedule set-points, participation levels, and wind conditions. The performance metrics used in this study are based on those used by several system operators in the US. Another metric that is analyzed is the damage equivalent loads (DELs) on turbine structural components, though the impacts on the turbine electrical components are not considered. The results of these single-turbine simulations show that high performance scores can be achieved when there is sufficient wind resource available. The capability of a wind turbine to rapidly and accurately follow power commands allows for high performance even when tracking rapidly changing AGC signals. As the turbine de-rates to meet decreased power schedule set-points there is a reduction in the DELs, and the participation in frequency regulation has a negligible impact on these loads.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study

The Eastern Interconnection (EI) is one of the largest power systems in the world, and its size and complexity have historically made it difficult to study in high levels of detail in a modeling environment. In order to understand how this system might be impacted by high penetrations (30% of total annual generation) of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) during steady state operations, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS). This study investigates certain aspects of the reliability and economic efficiency problem faced by power system operators and planners. Specifically, the study models the ability to meet electricity demand at a 5-minute time interval by scheduling resources for known ramping events, while maintaining adequate reserves to meet random variation in supply and demand, and contingency events. To measure the ability to meet these requirements, a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model is employed to simulate power system operations. The economic costs of managing this system are presented using production costs, a traditional UC&ED metric that does not include any consideration of long-term fixed costs. ERGIS simulated one year of power system operations to understand regional and sub-hourly impacts of wind and PV by developing a comprehensive UC&ED model of the EI. In the analysis, it is shown that, under the study assumptions, generation from approximately 400 GW of combined wind and PV capacity can be balanced on the transmission system at a 5-minute level. In order to address the significant computational burdens associated with a model of this detail we apply novel computing techniques to dramatically reduce simulation solve time while simultaneously increasing the resolution and fidelity of the analysis. Our results also indicate that high penetrations of wind and PV (collectively variable generation (VG)), significantly impact the operation of traditional generating resources and cause these resources to be used less frequently and operate across a broader output range because wind and PV have lower operating costs and variable output levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Investigation into the Effects of Swirl on the Performance and Emissions of an Opposed-Piston Two-Stroke Engine using Large Eddy Simulations

Opposed-piston two-stroke (OP-2S) engines have the potential to achieve higher thermal efficiency than a conventional four-stroke diesel engine. However, the uniflow scavenging process is difficult to control over a wider range of speed and loads due to its sensitivity to pressure dynamics, port timings, and port design. Specifically, the angle of the intake ports can be used to generate swirl which has implications for open and closed cycle effects. This study proposes an analysis of the effects of port angle on the in-cylinder flow distribution and combustion performance of an OP-2S using computational fluid dynamics engine. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was used to model turbulence given its ability to predict in-cylinder mixing and cyclic variability. A three-cylinder model was validated to experimental data collected by Achates Power and the grid was verified using an LES quality approach from the literature. The model was used to simulate port angles from 12 to 29 degrees at constant pressure and temperature boundary conditions. Results indicated that the higher bulk swirl ratio generated by larger port angles tends to trap more internal residuals. This effect on the scavenging performance, combined with the larger trapped swirl ratio, also has a significant impact on the combustion performance in a two-stroke engine. It was concluded that there exists a tradeoff of efficiency and emissions that must be considered when increasing the port angle in a uniflow two-stroke engine. 1. Introduction Two-stroke engines were developed in the 1800s and are commonly used in practice today for lightweight power applications such as motorcycles or handheld power tools, as well as large-bore low speed engines for stationary power and marine applications. Two-stroke engines provide the distinct advantage of higher torque/power output but present challenges due to its coupled intake and exhaust process. Four-stroke engines have the benefit of using two full piston strokes to induct intake charge and to expel exhaust gases. Controlling the trapped charge composition in a twostroke engine via a scavenging process is crucial for reliable and efficient engine operation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of a fault impact reduction control module for wind turbines

Abstract. Traditionally, wind turbines in distributed applications make control decisions as isolated systems. They generally provide maximum power output during operation and manage internal faults with little consideration of the rest of the power system. Although fault detection and tolerance schemes are widely researched and implemented, controls to ameliorate such faults are uncommon in research and industry. The rapid shutdown of a wind turbine in a large transmission-connected wind plant will have a minimal impact on a large power system, but in a microgrid or isolated grid context the abrupt loss of a single wind turbine may cause grid instability and high stress on the system. This paper demonstrates a fault impact reduction control (FIRC) module for a wind turbine, which implements wider warning thresholds around fault thresholds. When the turbine crosses a warning threshold, the controller sends its predicted action to the grid controller, which facilitates the grid operator’s response to a potential wind turbine fault and then takes appropriate action to ameliorate the fault. Various test cases demonstrate the controller action under a variety of faults, and various scenarios demonstrate the grid benefit of an FIRC in both microgrid- and grid-connected contexts. The FIRC maximizes wind turbine generation and eases generation transition under a variety of fault scenarios. The FIRC module is easy to integrate with most existing controllers, just requiring derate capability, and can be easily modified to include the various warnings and thresholds that the user desires. This analysis is mainly performed in a MATLAB-Simulink-based research wind turbine model and is also implemented in the existing LabVIEW-based controller of the same research turbine at NREL.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗
DOE OSTI2013

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2024

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Updated Analysis of Clad Degradation

This report provides an analysis of the clad barrier function associated with the direct disposal of dual purpose canisters (DPCs) under hypothetical conditions in a shale repository and in an alluvial repository, including the effect of a postulated criticality event inside a disposed DPC. Should a postulated criticality event occur in a hypothetical shale repository, cladding will primarily degrade by general corrosion. Stress corrosion cracking, hydride cracking, creep failure, pitting and crevice corrosion, rod pressurization, and clad unzipping are calculated to have little impact on cladding persistence. At the higher temperature expected during a postulated criticality event in a saturated shale repository, general corrosion of cladding would be rapid - on the order of 0.034 microns/yr. A few hundred years after onset of a postulated criticality event in a shale repository complete general corrosion of fuel assembly grid spacer walls and guide tubes will likely result in settling of fuel rods upon each other. This rod consolidation should displace the water moderator and possibly terminate a postulated criticality. The primary potential degradation pathway for cladding in a hypothetical alluvial repository is localized corrosion by fluoride, which cannot occur in a shale repository. Fluoride-enhanced corrosion of cladding would be accelerated under the slightly higher (< 100°C) temperatures associated with a postulated criticality event. The impact of criticality in both cases (shale and alluvial) would be to increase the amount of failed cladding. But it would require very specialized transport pathways.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1991

The NASA aircraft noise prediction program improved propeller analysis system

The improvements and the modifications of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) and the Propeller Analysis System (PAS) are described. Comparisons of the predictions and the test data are included in the case studies for the flat plate model in the Boundary Layer Module, for the effects of applying compressibility corrections to the lift and pressure coefficients, for the use of different weight factors in the Propeller Performance Module, for the use of the improved retarded time equation solution, and for the effect of the number grids in the Transonic Propeller Noise Module. The DNW tunnel test data of a propeller at different angles of attack and the Dowty Rotol data are compared with ANOPP predictions. The effect of the number of grids on the Transonic Propeller Noise Module predictions and the comparison of ANOPP TPN and DFP-ATP codes are studied. In addition to the above impact studies, the transonic propeller noise predictions for the SR-7, the UDF front rotor, and the support of the enroute noise test program are included.

Nguyen, L. Cathy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal Reconfiguration of Electrical Distribution Systems to Mitigate the Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging

Power grids face challenges in their infrastructure related to the integration of electric vehicles (EV). In particular, EV charging stations may induce instability in key system parameters such as substantial voltage drops, active power losses, and transformer overload due to high demand during charging periods. This article presents a seasonal reconfiguration strategy based on the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, aimed at enhancing system performance under highly variable and stochastic load profiles, particularly those driven by EV charging. The DEA algorithm is hybridized with the find-union (FU) algorithm to efficiently ensure network radiality throughout the optimization process. The proposed methodology is validated on a hybrid distribution system composed of the IEEE 33-bus network, a modified IEEE 13-bus system, and a specific 13-bus microgrid. Results have demonstrated that seasonal reconfiguration significantly reduces active power losses and mitigates transformer loading during critical demand hours, thereby quantifiably increasing the system’s performance. As an integral component of the proposed approach, an analysis of CO2 emissions associated with energy losses is included, allowing a contextualized assessment of the environmental benefits of seasonal reconfiguration in various geographical areas.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bipolar plate flow channel designs for vanadium redox flow battery: a review

Vanadium redox flow battery is one of the preferred systems for grid scale energy storage due to long service life (>20000 cycles), higher efficiency (>85 %), deep discharge capability (>95 % DoD), and inherent scalability and safety. Among system components, flow field is most critical as it governs electrolyte distribution, mass transport and hydraulic performance. Here, this review examines emerging flow channel geometries, highlighting the impact of channel width (0.66 to 1.5 mm), depth (1 to 1.5 mm) and land width (0.5 to 1.5 mm) can reduce pressure drop to <10 kPa while enabling power densities above 600 mW.cm -2 . A key finding is that low channel width to depth ratio (<1) enhances voltage and energy efficiencies by improving under rib convection. The review also provides an overview of progress and perspective in bipolar plate materials, manufacturability, and shunt current mitigation strategies for stack scaling up. Cost analysis emphasizes the influence of flow field designs on the levelized cost of storage and pathways towards the US DOE's $\$$0.05 per kWh energy generation cost target. In addition, opportunities for AI/ML/DT tools assisted design and data driven optimization strategies are also outlined to accelerate next generation flow field development.

Efficiency optimization↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems: 2016 Technology Development Program Plan

The United States is in the midst of an energy revolution, spurred by advancement of technology to produce unprecedented supplies of oil and natural gas. Simultaneously, there is an increasing concern for climate change attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that, in large part, result from burning fossil fuels. An international consensus has concluded that the U.S. and other developed nations have an imperative to reduce GHG emissions to address these climate change concerns. The global desire to reduce GHG emissions has led to the development and deployment of clean energy resources and technologies, particularly renewable energy technologies, at a rapid rate. At the same time, each of the major energy sectors—the electric grid, industrial manufacturing, transportation, and the residential/commercial consumers— is increasingly becoming linked through information and communications technologies, advanced modeling and simulation, and controls. Coordination of clean energy generation technologies through integrated hybrid energy systems, as defined below, has the potential to further revolutionize energy services at the system level by coordinating the exchange of energy currency among the energy sectors in a manner that optimizes financial efficiency (including capital investments), maximizes thermodynamic efficiency (through best use of exergy, which is the potential to use the available energy in producing energy services), reduces environmental impacts when clean energy inputs are maximized, and provides resources for grid management. Rapid buildout of renewable technologies has been largely driven by local, state, and federal policies, such as renewable portfolio standards and production tax credits that incentivize investment in these generation sources. A foundational assumption within this program plan is that renewable technologies will continue to be major contributors to the future U.S. energy infrastructure. While increased use of clean renewable technologies will aid in achieving reduced GHG emissions, it also presents new challenges to grid management that must be addressed. These challenges primarily derive from the fundamental characteristics of variable renewable generators, such as wind and solar: non-dispatchability, variable production, and reduced electromechanical inertia. This document presents a preliminary research and development (R&D) plan for detailed dynamic simulation and analysis of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HES), coupled with integrated energy system design, component development, and integrated systems testing. N-R HES are cooperatively-controlled systems that dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to provide responsive generation to the power grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts a rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming (U.WY) and the FLECCS technology development teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options and new operational parameterizations are integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative scenarios of CO2 prices and competitiveness of flexible CCS and NET technologies. We demonstrate sample deployment and operational outcomes to show how these models are being used to assess the future potential for FLECCS technologies and their impacts on the U.S. electricity system. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data assimilation and for Bayesian estimation. They also open a perspective for optimal experimental design.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation of a Distribution System with Air Conditioners under Model Predictive Control: Preprint

Many have proposed that responsive load provided by distributed energy resources (DERs) and demand response (DR) are an option to provide flexibility to the grid and especially to distribution feeders. However, because responsive load involves a complex interplay between tariffs and DER and DR technologies, it is challenging to test and evaluate options without negatively impacting customers. This paper describes a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system that has been developed to reduce the cost of evaluating the impact of advanced controllers (e.g., model predictive controllers) and technologies (e.g., responsive appliances). The HIL simulation system combines large-scale software simulation with a small set of representative building equipment hardware. It is used to perform HIL simulation of a distribution feeder and the loads on it under various tariff structures. In the reported HIL simulation, loads include many simulated air conditioners and one physical air conditioner. Independent model predictive controllers manage operations of all air conditioners under a time-of-use tariff. Results from this HIL simulation and a discussion of future development work of the system are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗