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At least 865 records · Page 48

Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Why is there a diurnal cycle of precipitation over the oceans?

Using the Colorado State University general circulation model, simulated diurnal and semidiurnal variability of precipitation has been analyzed. At least four mechanisms have been proposed to account for the observed daily oscillations of precipitations over the ocean: direct radiation convection, radiation-dynamics-convection interactions, remote influence of the continents, and atmospheric tidal forces. Results indicate that neither land-sea contrasts nor cloudiness are necessary to produce daily variations of precipitations over the oceans. Clear-sky radiative effects, cloud-radiative effects, and the remote influence of the continents all turn out to play a role.

Randall, David A.↗

Analysis of the three lowest bending frequencies of a rotating propeller

The available literature on rotating propeller oscillations reveals a lack of uniformity in interpretation, particularly as concerns the data on the overtone frequency with respect to the centrifugal forces. The present report is a survey of the existing data for computing the bending frequency and a check on the dependability of the calculating methods.

Liebers, F↗

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Goossee, Hugues↗

Downward Migration of the Zonal‐Mean Circulation in the Tropical Atmosphere

The annular modes of the extratropical atmosphere have received much attention for quantifying variability of the jet streams and storm tracks, despite the fact that the midlatitude circulation itself does not vary uniformly with longitude. While tropical fluctuations in geopotential height have lower amplitude than in the extratropics, they exhibit stronger zonal coherence, or dynamical annularity. A simple index is developed to characterize zonal‐mean anomalies of the tropical circulation. It reveals that anomalies in geopotential height and zonal wind migrate downward from the upper troposphere to the surface on a time scale of about 10 days. These features are distinguishable from known modes of tropical variability, the Madden‐‐Julian Oscillation in particular. Evidence from reanalysis and idealized model experiments confirms that this downward migration is quite generic and driven by mechanically forced variations in the strength of the Hadley circulation on subseasonal time scales.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Much of northern Eurasia experienced record high temperatures during the first three months of 2020, and the eastern United States experienced a significant heat wave during March. In this study, we show that the above episodes of extraordinary warmth reflect to a large extent the unusual persistence and large amplitude of three well-known modes of atmospheric variability: the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. We employ a “replay” approach in which simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM are constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over specified regions of the globe in order to identify the underlying forcings and regions that acted to maintain these modes well beyond their typical submonthly time scales. We show that an extreme positive AO played a major role in the surface warming over Eurasia, with forcing from the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions acting to maintain its positive phase. Forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic regions produced positive NAO-like responses, contributing to the warming over eastern North America and Europe. The strong heat wave that developed over eastern North America during March was primarily associated with an extreme negative PNA that developed as an instability of the North Pacific jet, with tropical forcing providing support for a prolonged negative phase. A diagnosis of the zonally symmetric circulation shows that the above extratropical surface warming occurred underneath a deep layer of tropospheric warming, driven by stationary eddy-induced changes in the mean meridional circulation.

Northern Hemisphere↗

Improving the precision of forces in real-space pseudopotential density functional theory

The high-order finite difference real-space pseudopotential density functional theory (DFT) approach is a valuable method for large-scale, massively parallel DFT calculations. A significant challenge in the approach is the oscillating “egg-box” error introduced by aliasing associated with a coarse grid spacing. To address this issue while minimizing computational cost, we developed a finite difference interpolation (FDI) scheme [Roller et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 19, 3889 (2023)] as a means of exploiting the high resolution of the pseudopotential to reduce egg-box effects systematically. Here, we show an implementation of this method in the PARSEC code and examine the practical utility of the combination of FDI with additional methods for improving force precision and/or reducing its computational cost, including orbital-based forces, compensating charges (namely, adding and subtracting a judiciously chosen charge density such that the total density is unaltered), and a modified spatial domain in which the real-space grid is defined. Using selected small molecules, as well as metallic Li, as test cases, we show that a combination of all four aspects leads to a significant reduction in computational cost while retaining a high level of precision that supports accurate structures and vibrational spectra, as well as stable and accurate molecular dynamics runs.

Chemistry↗

Magellan radio occultation measurements of atmospheric waves on Venus

Radio occultation experiments were conducted at Venus on three consecutive orbits of the Magellan spacecraft in October 1991. Each occultation occurred over the same topography (67 deg N, 127 deg E) and at the same local time (22 hr 5 min), but the data are sensitive to zonal variations because the atmosphere rotates significantly during one orbit. Through comparisons between observations and predictions of standard wave theory, we have demonstrated that small-scale oscillations in retrieved temperature profiles as well as scintillations in received signal intensity are caused by a spectrum of vertically propagating internal gravity waves. There is a strong similarity between the intensity scintillations observed here and previous measurements, which pertain to a wide range of locations and experiment dates. This implies that the same basic phenomenon underlies all the observations and hence that gravity waves are a persistent, global feature of Venus' atmosphere. We obtained a fairly complete characterization of a gravity wave that appears above the middle cloud in temperature measurements on all three orbits. The amplitude and vertical wavelength are about 4 K and 2.5 km respectively, at 65 km. A model for radiative damping implies that the wave intrinsic frequency is approximately 2 x 10(exp 4) rad/sec, the corresponding ratio between horizontal and vertical wavelengths is approximately 100. The wave is nearly stationary relative to the surface or the Sun. Radiative attenuation limits the wave amplitude at altitudes above approximately 65 km, leading to wave drag on the mean zonal winds of about +0.4 m/sec per day (eastward). The sign, magnitude, and location of this forcing suggest a possible role in explaining the decrease with height in the zonal wind speed that is believed to occur above the cloud tops. Temperature oscillations with larger vertical wavelengths (5-10 km) were also observed on all three orbits, but we are able unable to interpret these unambiguously.

Hinson, David P.↗

Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

Abstract Long‐range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here, we explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low‐level jet (LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross‐Pacific wave train. Using a causal effect network, we found that the time between BSISO‐related geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that the above‐normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains convection the following week.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The Role of Cold Pools in Modulating Convective Organization During the MJO

Abstract In this study, we investigate the role of cold pools in modulating convective organization throughout the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) life cycle using a modeling approach that combines Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques. First, we conduct a simulation using the soundings and forcing of the DYNAMO/AMIE campaign. The simulation shows a lag of several days between the precipitation rate peak time associated with MJO and the highest convective organization time. Second, to analyze the role of cold pools, we consider a series of 2‐day simulations conducted at different stages of the MJO. The simulation results suggest that cold pools are larger and last longer during the mature stages of the MJO, possibly because of decreased environmental surface latent heat fluxes and stronger downdrafts. These lead to the formation of moist rings at the leading edges of cold pools, facilitating the formation of more convective cores and increasing the degree of convective organization.

Geology↗

Numerical simulation of sudden stratospheric warmings

The paper presents a mechanistic, quasi-geostrophic, semi-spectral model with a self-consistent calculation of the mean zonal flow fields used to numerically simulate sudden stratospheric warmings generated by a single zonal harmonic (m) planetary wave. The development of a warming depends on the strength of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and the growth rate of a m=2 warming is accelerated during the westerly zonal wind phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. An m=1 warming is characterized by oscillation of wave amplitude and mean flow from resonantly trapped, westward, propagating planetary waves moving in and out of phase with the tropospherically forced stationary planetary wave. An m=2 critical level develops in the equatorial region and advances poleward, and its warming is characterized by a sudden intensification after an initially slow growth in contrast to slowly developing m=1 warmings.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

W-shaped occultation signatures - Inference of entwined particle orbits in charged planetary ringlets

A model for the ringlets of Saturn is proposed where concentration of material near the inner and outer radial edges of the ringlets is a natural consequence of particles in entwined elliptical orbits, with the same particles alternately defining both edges. The existence of a collisionless state where particles fly along entwined paths in a compressed helical formation on and within a toroidal surface whose meridional cross section is a very thin ellipse is explained. The cancellation of strong oblateness perturbations by an extremely weak force normal to the orbit planes and directed primarily outward from the major axis of the meridional cross section of the torus is shown, and the possibility that electric repulsion of like-charged particles could provide the expansion force preventing cross-sectional collapse is examined. The model features a large stability domain within which orbital inclinations and arguments of periapse oscillate but do not progress. Features of the model that can be tested experimentally are mentioned.

Eshleman, V. R.↗

Analysis of an unswept propfan blade with a semiempirical dynamic stall model

The time history response of a propfan wind tunnel model with dynamic stall is studied analytically. The response obtained from the analysis is compared with available experimental data. The governing equations of motion are formulated in terms of blade normal modes which are calculated using the COSMIC-NASTRAN computer code. The response analysis considered the blade plunging and pitching motions. The lift, drag and moment coefficients for angles of attack below the static stall angle are obtained from a quasi-steady theory. For angles above static stall angles, a semiempirical dynamic stall model based on a correction to angle of attack is used to obtain lift, drag and moment coefficients. Using these coefficients, the aerodynamic forces are calculated at a selected number of strips, and integrated to obtain the total generalized forces. The combined momentum-blade element theory is used to calculate the induced velocity. The semiempirical stall model predicted a limit cycle oscillation near the setting angle at which large vibratory stresses were observed in an experiment. The predicted mode and frequency of oscillation also agreed with those measured in the experiment near the setting angle.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

Aeroelastic analysis of prop fan blades with a semiempirical dynamic stall model

The time-history response of a propfan wind-tunnel model with dynamic stall was studied analytically. The response obtained from the analysis was compared with available experimental data. The governing equations of motion were formulated in terms of blade normal modes calculated using the COSMIC-NASTRAN computer code. The response analysis considered the blade plunging and pitching motions. The lift, drag, and moment coefficients for angles of attack below the static stall angle were obtained from a quasi-steady theory. For angles above static stall angles, a semiempirical dynamic stall model based on a correction to the angle of attack was used to obtain lift, drag, and moment coefficients. Using these coefficients, the aerodynamic forces were calculated at a selected number of strips, and integrated to obtain the total generalized forces. The combined momentum-blade element theory was used to calculate the induced velocity. The semiempirical stall model predicted a limit cycle oscillation near the setting angle at which large vibratory stresses were observed in an experiment. The predicted mode and frequency of oscillation also agreed with those measured in the experiment near this setting angle. The results also correlated well with the other published data that used a semiempirical dynamic stall model based on a synthesized procedure.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

Central and peripheral regulation of feeding and nutrition by the mammalian circadian clock: implications for nutrition during manned space flight

Circadian clocks have evolved to predict and coordinate physiologic processes with the rhythmic environment on Earth. Space studies in non-human primates and humans have suggested that this clock persists in its rhythmicity in space but that its function is altered significantly in long-term space flight. Under normal circumstances, the clock is synchronized by the light-dark cycle via the retinohypothalamic tract and the suprachiasmatic nucleus. It is also entrained by restricted feeding regimes via a suprachiasmatic nucleus-independent circadian oscillator. The site of this suboscillator (or oscillators) is not known, but new evidence has suggested that peripheral tissues in the liver and viscera may express circadian clock function when forced to do so by restricted feeding schedules or other homeostatic disruptions. New research on the role of the circadian clock in the control of feeding on Earth and in space is warranted.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Apparatus for Sampling Surface Contamination

An apparatus denoted a swab device has been developed as a convenient means of acquiring samples of contaminants from surfaces and suspending the samples in liquids. (Thereafter, the liquids can be dispensed, in controlled volumes, into scientific instruments for analysis of the contaminants.) The swab device is designed so as not to introduce additional contamination and to facilitate, simplify, and systematize the dispensing of controlled volumes of liquid into analytical instruments. The swab device is a single apparatus into which are combined all the equipment and materials needed for sampling surface contamination. The swab device contains disposable components stacked together on a nondisposable dispensing head. One of the disposable components is a supply cartridge holding a sufficient volume of liquid for one complete set of samples. (The liquid could be clean water or another suitable solvent, depending on the application.) This supply of liquid is sealed by Luer valves. At the beginning of a sampling process, the user tears open a sealed bag containing the supply cartridge. A tip on the nondisposable dispensing head is engaged with a Luer valve on one end of the supply cartridge and rotated, locking the supply cartridge on the dispensing head and opening the valve. The swab tip includes a fabric swab that is wiped across the surface of interest to acquire a sample. A sealed bag containing a disposable dispensing tip is then opened, and the swab tip is pushed into the dispensing tip until seated. The dispensing head contains a piston that passes through a spring-loaded lip seal. The air volume displaced by this piston forces the liquid out of the supply cartridge, over the swab, and into the dispensing tip. The piston is manually cycled to enforce oscillation of the air volume and thereby to cause water to flow to wash contaminants from the swab and cause the resulting liquid suspension of contaminants to flow into the dispensing tip. After several cycles to ensure adequate mixing, liquid containing the suspended contaminant sample is dispensed. The disposable components are then removed from the dispensing head, which may then be reused with a fresh set of disposable components.

Wells, Mark↗

Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

boundary conditions↗

Oscillation-center autocorrelation time

It is shown that, within the quasi-linear regime, a recently proposed flux-minimization principle for optimizing canonical representations of nonintegrable systems also maximizes the generalized force-force autocorrelation time as seen in the new representation. Using a renormalized canonical perturbation theory, the optimum autocorrelation time is shown to be of the order of the Liapunov time.

Dewar, R. L.↗