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DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for brown dwarfs in IC 1396 with Subaru HSC: interpreting the impact of environmental factors on substellar population

ABSTRACT Young stellar clusters are predominantly the hub of star formation and hence, ideal to perform comprehensive studies over the least explored substellar regime. Various unanswered questions like the mass distribution in brown dwarf regime and the effect of diverse cluster environment on brown dwarf formation efficiency still plague the scientific community. The nearby young cluster, IC 1396 with its feedback-driven environment, is ideal to conduct such study. In this paper, we adopt a multiwavelength approach, using deep Subaru HSC along with other data sets and machine learning techniques to identify the cluster members complete down to ∼ 0.03 M⊙ in the central 22 arcmin area of IC 1396. We identify 458 cluster members including 62 brown dwarfs which are used to determine mass distribution in the region. We obtain a star-to-brown dwarf ratio of ∼ 6 for a stellar mass range 0.03–1 M⊙ in the studied cluster. The brown dwarf fraction is observed to increase across the cluster as radial distance from the central OB-stars increases. This study also compiles 15 young stellar clusters to check the variation of star-to-brown dwarf ratio relative to stellar density and ultraviolet (UV) flux ranging within 4–2500 stars pc−2 and 0.7–7.3 G0, respectively. The brown dwarf fraction is observed to increase with stellar density but the results about the influence of incident UV flux are inconclusive within this range. This is the deepest study of IC 1396 as of yet and it will pave the way to understand various aspects of brown dwarfs using spectroscopic observations in future.

Gupta, Saumya (ORCID:0000000161843958)↗

DOE OSTI2015

ERRATUM: “Automated Transient Identification in the Dark Energy Survey” (2015, AJ, 150, 82)

Here, we describe an algorithm for identifying point-source transients and moving objects on reference-subtracted optical images containing artifacts of processing and instrumentation. The algorithm makes use of the supervised machine learning technique known as Random Forest. We present results from its use in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program (DES-SN), where it was trained using a sample of 898,963 signal and background events generated by the transient detection pipeline. After reprocessing the data collected during the first DES-SN observing season (2013 September through 2014 February) using the algorithm, the number of transient candidates eligible for human scanning decreased by a factor of 13.4, while only 1.0% of the artificial Type Ia supernovae (SNe) injected into search images to monitor survey efficiency were lost, most of which were very faint events. Here we characterize the algorithm's performance in detail, and we discuss how it can inform pipeline design decisions for future time-domain imaging surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. An implementation of the algorithm and the training data used in this paper are available at at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/dessn/autoscan.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recurrent features of amplitudes in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills theory

The planar three-gluon form factor for the chiral stress tensor operator in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory is an analog of the Higgs-to-three-gluon scattering amplitude in QCD. The amplitude (symbol) bootstrap program has provided a wealth of high-loop perturbative data about this form factor, with results up to eight loops available. The symbol of the form factor at L loops is given by words of length 2L in six letters with associated integer coefficients. In this paper, we analyze this data, describing patterns of zero coefficients and relations between coefficients. We find many sequences of words whose coefficients are given by closed-form expressions which we expect to be valid at any loop order. Moreover, motivated by our previous machine-learning analysis, we identify simple recursion relations that relate the coefficient of a word to the coefficients of particular lower-loop words. These results open an exciting door for understanding scattering amplitudes at all loop orders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the radius dependence of charged-particle jet suppression in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=5.02$ TeV

The ALICE Collaboration reports a differential measurement of inclusive jet suppression using pp and Pb–Pb collision data at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=5.02$ TeV. Charged-particle jets are reconstructed using the anti-$k_T$ algorithm with resolution parameters R=0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 in pp collisions and R=0.2, 0.4, 0.6 in central (0–10%), semi-central (30–50%), and peripheral (60–80%) Pb–Pb collisions. A novel approach based on machine learning is employed to mitigate the influence of jet background. This enables measurements of inclusive jet suppression in new regions of phase space, including down to the lowest jet $p_T$ ≥ 40 GeV/c at R=0.6 in central Pb–Pb collisions. This is an important step for discriminating different models of jet quenching in the quark–gluon plasma. The transverse momentum spectra, nuclear modification factors, derived cross section, and nuclear modification factor ratios for different jet resolution parameters of charged-particle jets are presented and compared to model predictions. A mild dependence of the nuclear modification factor ratios on collision centrality and resolution parameter is observed. The results are compared to a variety of jet-quenching models with varying levels of agreement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Auto-deconvolution and molecular networking of gas chromatography–mass spectrometry data

We engineered a machine learning approach, MSHub, to enable auto-deconvolution of gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) data. We then designed workflows to enable the community to store, process, share, annotate, compare and perform molecular networking of GC–MS data within the Global Natural Product Social (GNPS) Molecular Networking analysis platform. MSHub/GNPS performs auto-deconvolution of compound fragmentation patterns via unsupervised non-negative matrix factorization and quantifies the reproducibility of fragmentation patterns across samples.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global Experiences with HPC Operational Data Measurement, Collection and Analysis

As we move into the exascale era, supercomputers grow larger, denser, more heterogeneous, and ever more complex. Operating such machines reliably and efficiently requires deep insight into the operational parameters of the machine itself as well as its supporting infrastructure. To fulfill this need, early adopter sites have started the development and deployment of Operational Data Analytics (ODA) frameworks allowing the continuous monitoring, archiving, and analysis of near realtime performance data from the machine and infrastructure levels, providing immediately actionable information for multiple operational uses. To understand their ODA goals, requirements, and use cases, we have conducted a survey among eight early adopter sites from the US, Europe, and Japan that operate top 50 high-performance computing systems. We have assessed the technologies leveraged to build their ODA frameworks, identified use cases and other push and pull factors that drive the sites' ODA activities, and report on their operational lessons.

Ott, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Active Learning Framework

Machine learning (ML) of interatomic potentials show great promise to accelerate scientific simulation, e.g., by emulating expensive computations at a high accuracy but much reduced computational cost. Training datasets are calculated from computationally expensive ab initio quantum mechanics methods, density functional theory (DFT). Trained on this data, an ML model can be very successful in predicting energy and forces for new atomic configurations. A critical factor is the quality and diversity of the training dataset. Thus, a highly automated approach to dataset construction based on active learning framework is designed suitable for material physics. The active learning scheme begins with fully randomized atomic configurations. Then, many Molecular Dynamics (MD) trajectories are simulated using current ML potentials, where each MD trajectory is initialized to a random disordered configuration. The temperature is varied in order to diversify the sampled configuration during these simulations. The variance of predictions for eight neural networks within an ensemble is analyzed to determine whether the model is operating as expected. This helps in determining whether collecting more data would be helpful to the model by checking the ensemble variance is greater than the threshold. In this case, the MD trajectory is terminated and the final atomic configuration is placed on a queue (SQL database) for DFT calculations and added to training dataset. Periodically, ML model is retrained to the updated training model. This Active Learning loop is iterated until the cost of MD simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. The MD simulations will hopefully be sufficiently robust to support nucleation after many active learning iterations. In this sense, active learning scheme must automatically discover the important low energy and nonequilibrium physics.

Nebgen, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Hybrid Learning Techniques for Scientific Data Compression

Data compression is becoming critical for storing scientific data because many scientific applications need to store large amounts of data and post process this data for scientific discovery. Unlike image and video compression algorithms that limit errors to primary data (PD), scientists require compression techniques that accurately preserve derived quantities of interest (QoIs). Here, this article presents a physics-informed compression technique implemented as an end-to-end, scalable, GPU-based pipeline for data compression that addresses this requirement. Our hybrid compression technique combines machine learning techniques and standard compression methods. Specifically, we combine an autoencoder, an error-bounded lossy compressor to provide guarantees on raw data error, and a constraint satisfaction post-processing step to preserve the QoIs within a minimal error (generally less than floating point error). The effectiveness of the data compression pipeline is demonstrated by compressing nuclear fusion simulation data generated by a large-scale fusion code, XGC, which produces hundreds of terabytes of data in a single day. Our approach works within the ADIOS framework and results in compression by a factor of more than 150 while requiring only a few percent of the computational resources necessary for generating the data, making the overall approach highly effective for practical scenarios.

ITER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Review of heat transfer enhancement techniques for single phase flows

The thermal energy exchange between a flowing fluid and its confining channel is a ubiquitous process in modern society. To enhance the fluid-to-wall or wall-to-fluid heat transfer, several techniques have been developed to maximize the contact area between the fluid and the inner wall and/or disrupt the flow to enhance circulation or induce turbulence. Deployment of channels having features capable of enhancing heat transfer enables the reduction of heat exchanger size while maintaining performance. Reduction in equipment size is critical due to the ability to minimize the required volume of costly working fluids and to mitigate potential safety concerns associated with total system fluid volume. Here, a comprehensive review of single-phase heat transfer enhancement techniques is presented. The article provides a thorough comparison by analyzing the heat transfer rate, pressure drop, and other operational aspects. Single-phase heat transfer enhancement methods are divided into active and passive techniques. Active methods such as electrohydrodynamic (EHD), magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), or mechanical motion require external power to create enhancement. Passive methods such as dimples, fins, or tape inserts do not require external input and rely only on surface modification. Although active methods are more expensive and difficult to implement compared to passive techniques, it enables active control of heat transfer augmentation. Finally, this review develops and summarizes key learning data for design optimization enabled by additive manufacturing and machine learning algorithms, helping to inform these next-generation heat exchanger design methodologies for a plethora of modern applications such as electrification of vehicles, computing, and classical industries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-70: Commissioning a Multislice CT Scanner for X-Ray CT Polymer Gel Dosimetry

Purpose: To commission a multislice computed tomography (CT) scanner for fast and reliable readout of radiation therapy (RT) dose distributions using CT polymer gel dosimetry (PGD). Methods: Commissioning was performed for a 16-slice CT scanner using images acquired through a 1L cylinder filled with water. Additional images were collected using a single slice machine for comparison purposes. The variability in CT number associated with the anode heel effect was evaluated and used to define a new slice-by-slice background image subtraction technique. Image quality was assessed for the multislice system by comparing image noise and uniformity to that of the single slice machine. The consistency in CT number across slices acquired simultaneously using the multislice detector array was also evaluated. Finally, the variability in CT number due to increasing x-ray tube load was measured for the multislice scanner and compared to the tube load effects observed on the single slice machine. Results: Slice-by-slice background subtraction effectively removes the variability in CT number across images acquired simultaneously using the multislice scanner and is the recommended background subtraction method when using a multislice CT system. Image quality for the multislice machine was found to be comparable to that of the single slice scanner. Further study showed CT number was consistent across image slices acquired simultaneously using the multislice detector array for each detector configuration of the slice thickness examined. In addition, the multislice system was found to eliminate variations in CT number due to increasing x-ray tube load and reduce scanning time by a factor of 4 when compared to imaging a large volume using a single slice scanner. Conclusion: A multislice CT scanner has been commissioning for CT PGD, allowing images of an entire dose distribution to be acquired in a matter of minutes. Funding support provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atomic Diffusivities of Yttrium, Titanium and Oxygen Calculated by Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics in Molten 316L Oxide-Dispersion-Strengthened Steel Fabricated via Additive Manufacturing

Oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) steels have long been viewed as a prime solution for harsh environments. However, conventional manufacturing of ODS steels limits the final product geometry, is difficult to scale up to large components, and is expensive due to multiple highly involved, solid-state processing steps required. Additive manufacturing (AM) can directly incorporate dispersion elements (e.g., Y, Ti and O) during component fabrication, thus bypassing the need for an ODS steel supply chain, the scale-up challenges of powder processing routes, the buoyancy challenges associated with casting ODS steels, and the joining issues for net-shape component fabrication. In the AM process, the diffusion of the dispersion elements in the molten steel plays a key role in the precipitation of the oxide particles, thereby influencing the microstructure, thermal stability and high-temperature mechanical properties of the resulting ODS steels. In this work, the atomic diffusivities of Y, Ti, and O in molten 316L stainless steel (SS) as functions of temperature are determined by ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. The latest Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) package that incorporates an on-the-fly machine learning force field for accelerated computation is used. At a constant temperature, the time-dependent coordinates of the target atoms in the molten 316L SS were analyzed in the form of mean square displacement in order to obtain diffusivity. The values of the diffusivity at multiple temperatures are then fitted to the Arrhenius form to determine the activation energy and the pre-exponential factor. Given the challenges in experimental measurement of atomic diffusivity at such high temperatures and correspondingly the lack of experimental data, this study provides important physical parameters for future modeling of the oxide precipitation kinetics during AM process.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2018

Empirical modeling of dopability in diamond-like semiconductors

Carrier concentration optimization has been an enduring challenge when developing newly discovered semiconductors for applications (e.g., thermoelectrics, transparent conductors, photovoltaics). This barrier has been particularly pernicious in the realm of high-throughput property prediction, where the carrier concentration is often assumed to be a free parameter and the limits are not predicted due to the high computational cost. In this work, we explore the application of machine learning for high-throughput carrier concentration range prediction. Bounding the model within diamond-like semiconductors, the learning set was developed from experimental carrier concentration data on 127 compounds ranging from unary to quaternary. The data were analyzed using various statistical and machine learning methods. Accurate predictions of carrier concentration ranges in diamond-like semiconductors are made within approximately one order of magnitude on average across both p- and n-type dopability. The model fit to empirical data is analyzed to understand what drives trends in carrier concentration and compared with previous computational efforts. Lastly, dopability predictions from this model are combined with high-throughput quality factor predictions to identify promising thermoelectric materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of short-range ordering motifs in semiconductors

Chemical short-range ordering is expected to be a key factor for tuning the electronic structure of semiconductors. However, experimental evidence of short-range ordering is still lacking due to the challenge of characterizing atomic-scale ordering motifs. Here, we determined the presence of short-range order in a ternary GeSiSn semiconductor system using advanced energy-filtered four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy and large-scale atomistic models generated by a machine learning neuroevolution potential of first-principles accuracy. This approach revealed preferred ordering of different atomic species with the dominant occurrence of Si–Ge–Sn triplets. Our findings not only confirmed the presence of short-range order but also directly revealed the actual atomic structure, demonstrating the potential for informed atomic order–based band engineering as a third degree of freedom beyond composition and strain tuning.

Vogl, Lilian M. [University of California Berkeley↗

DOE OSTI2015

A new critical experiment in support of the nuclear criticality safety class - 14488

A new critical experiment has been performed on the Planet vertical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The purpose of the experiment was to compare the moderator properties of polyethylene versus Lucite and to use the experiment as an instructional tool for criticality safety engineers. The Lucite version of this experiment has been performed many times since the mid-1970's. Similar to the Lucite critical experiment, the polyethylene experiment was designed to emphasize the factors that affect criticality; namely, enrichment, reflection, interaction, moderation, mass, shape, volume, density, concentration, and poisons. The critical mass obtained with the moderating high density polyethylene plates was 997.0 ± 0.65 grams of highly enriched uranium, which is approximately 34% lower than the critical mass obtained using the Lucite moderating plates. This 34% decrease is mostly attributable to the higher hydrogen and carbon atom densities of polyethylene versus Lucite. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation: An Evolutionary Approach

The Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. Finally, this work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗