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At least 865 records · Page 48

Quantum process tomography of a Mølmer-Sørensen gate via a global beam

Here, we present a framework for quantum process tomography of two-ion interactions that leverages modulations of the trapping potential and composite pulses from a global laser beam to achieve individual-ion addressing. Tomographic analysis of identity and delay processes reveals dominant error contributions from laser decoherence and slow qubit frequency drift during the tomography experiment. We use this framework on two co-trapped 40 Ca + ions to analyze both an optimized and an overpowered Mølmer–Sørensen gate and to compare the results of this analysis to a less informative Bell-state tomography measurement and to predictions based on a simplified noise model. These results show that the technique is effective for the characterization of two-ion quantum processes and for the extraction of meaningful information about the errors present in the system. The experimental convenience of this method will allow for more widespread use of process tomography for characterizing entangling gates in trapped-ion systems.

quantum computing↗

Lightweight and Statistical Techniques for Petascale PetaScale Debugging

This project investigated novel techniques for debugging scientific applications on petascale architectures. In particular, we developed lightweight tools that narrow the problem space when bugs are encountered. We also developed techniques that either limit the number of tasks and the code regions to which a developer must apply a traditional debugger or that apply statistical techniques to provide direct suggestions of the location and type of error. We extend previous work on the Stack Trace Analysis Tool (STAT), that has already demonstrated scalability to over one hundred thousand MPI tasks. We also extended statistical techniques developed to isolate programming errors in widely used sequential or threaded applications in the Cooperative Bug Isolation (CBI) project to large scale parallel applications. Overall, our research substantially improved productivity on petascale platforms through a tool set for debugging that complements existing commercial tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Eigenstate thermalization hypothesis and approximate quantum error correction

The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH) is a powerful conjecture for understanding how statistical mechanics emerges in a large class of many-body quantum systems. It has also been interpreted in a CFT context, and, in particular, holographic CFTs are expected to satisfy ETH. Recently, it was observed that the ETH condition corresponds to a necessary and sufficient condition for an approximate quantum error correcting code (AQECC), implying the presence of AQECCs in systems satisfying ETH. In this paper, we explore the properties of ETH as an error correcting code and show that there exists an explicit universal recovery channel for the code. Based on the analysis, we discuss a generalization that all chaotic theories contain error correcting codes. We then specialize to AdS/CFT to demonstrate the possibility of total bulk reconstruction in black holes with a well-defined macroscopic geometry. When combined with the existing AdS/CFT error correction story, this shows that black holes are enormously robust against erasure errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TU-F-18C-01: Breast Tissue Decomposition Using Spectral CT After Distortion Correction

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of accurate breast tissue compositional characterization by using spectral-distortion-corrected dual energy images from a photon-counting spectral CT. Methods: Thirty eight postmortem breasts were imaged with a Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride (CZT)-based photon-counting spectral CT system at beam energy of 100 kVp. The energy-resolved detector sorted photons into low and high energy bins with a splitting energy of 42 keV. The estimated mean glandular dose (MGD) for each breast was approximately 2.0 mGy. Dual energy technique was used to decompose breast tissue into water, lipid, and protein contents. Two image-based methods were investigated to improve the accuracy of tissue compositional characterization. The first method simply limited the recorded spectra up to 90 keV. This reduced the pulse pile-up artifacts but it has some dose penalty. The second method corrected the spectral information of all measured photons by using a spectral distortion correction technique. Breasts were then chemically decomposed into their respective water, lipid, and protein contents, which was used as the reference standard. The accuracy of the tissue compositional measurement with spectral CT was evaluated by the root-mean-square (RMS) errors in percentage composition. Results: The errors in quantitative material decomposition were significantly reduced after the appropriate image processing methods. As compared to the chemical analysis as the reference standard, the averages of the RMS errors were estimated to be 15.5%, 3.3%, and 2.8% for the raw, energy-limited, and spectral-corrected images, respectively. Conclusion: Spectral CT can be used to accurately quantify the water, lipid, and protein contents in breast tissues by implementing a spectral distortion correction algorithm. The tissue compositional information can potentially improve the sensitivity and specificity for breast cancer diagnosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Harmonic analysis for the characterization and correction of geometric distortion in MRI

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is gaining widespread use in radiation therapy planning, patient setup verification, and real-time guidance of radiation delivery. Successful implementation of these technologies relies on the development of simple and efficient methods to characterize and monitor the geometric distortions arising due to system imperfections and gradient nonlinearities. To this end, the authors present the theory and validation of a novel harmonic approach to the quantification of system-related distortions in MRI. Methods: The theory of spatial encoding in MRI is applied to demonstrate that the 3D distortion vector field (DVF) is given by the solution of a second-order boundary value problem (BVP). This BVP is comprised of Laplace’s equation and a limited measurement of the distortion on the boundary of a specified region of interest (ROI). An analytical series expansion solving this BVP within a spherical ROI is obtained, and a statistical uncertainty analysis is performed to determine how random errors in the boundary measurements propagate to the ROI interior. This series expansion is then evaluated to obtain volumetric DVF mappings that are compared to reference data obtained on a 3 T full-body scanner. This validation is performed within two spheres of 20 cm diameter (one centered at the scanner origin and the other offset +3 cm along each of the transverse directions). Initially, a high-order mapping requiring measurements at 5810 boundary points is used. Then, after exploring the impact of the boundary sampling density and the effect of series truncation, a reduced-order mapping requiring measurements at 302 boundary points is evaluated. Results: The volumetric DVF mappings obtained from the harmonic analysis are in good agreement with the reference data. Following distortion correction using the high-order mapping, the authors estimate a reduction in the mean distortion magnitude from 0.86 to 0.42 mm and from 0.93 to 0.39 mm within the central and offset ROIs, respectively. In addition, the fraction of points with a distortion magnitude greater than 1 mm is reduced from 35.6% to 2.8% and from 40.4% to 1.5%, respectively. Similarly, following correction using the reduced-order mapping, the mean distortion magnitude reduces to 0.45–0.42 mm within the central and offset ROIs, and the fraction of points with a distortion magnitude greater than 1 mm is reduced to 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Conclusions: A novel harmonic approach to the characterization of system-related distortions in MRI is presented. This method permits a complete and accurate mapping of the DVF within a specified ROI using a limited measurement of the distortion on the ROI boundary. This technique eliminates the requirement to exhaustively sample the DVF at a dense 3D array of points, thereby permitting the design of simple, inexpensive phantoms that may incorporate additional modules for auxiliary quality assurance objectives.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-F-P-07: Applying Failure Modes and Effects Analysis to Treatment Planning System QA

Purpose: A small-scale implementation of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for treatment planning system QA by utilizing methodology of AAPM TG-100 report. Methods: FMEA requires numerical values for severity (S), occurrence (O) and detectability (D) of each mode of failure. The product of these three values gives a risk priority number (RPN). We have implemented FMEA for the treatment planning system (TPS) QA for two clinics which use Pinnacle and Eclipse TPS. Quantitative monthly QA data dating back to 4 years for Pinnacle and 1 year for Eclipse have been used to determine values for severity (deviations from predetermined doses at points or volumes), and occurrence of such deviations. The TPS QA protocol includes a phantom containing solid water and lung- and bone-equivalent heterogeneities. Photon and electron plans have been evaluated in both systems. The dose values at multiple distinct points of interest (POI) within the solid water, lung, and bone-equivalent slabs, as well as mean doses to several volumes of interest (VOI), have been re-calculated monthly using the available algorithms. Results: The computed doses vary slightly month-over-month. There have been more significant deviations following software upgrades, especially if the upgrade involved re-modeling of the beams. TG-100 guidance and the data presented here suggest an occurrence (O) of 2 depending on the frequency of re-commissioning the beams, severity (S) of 3, and detectability (D) of 2, giving an RPN of 12. Conclusion: Computerized treatment planning systems could pose a risk due to dosimetric errors and suboptimal treatment plans. The FMEA analysis presented here suggests that TPS QA should immediately follow software upgrades, but does not need to be performed every month.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis

The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.

Database↗

SU-E-T-798: Verification of 3DVH Dose Distribution Before Clinical Implementation for Patient-Specific IMRT QA

Purpose: In recent years patient-specific IMRT QA has transitioned from film and chamber measurements to beam-by-beam 2D array measurements. 3DVH takes this transition a step further by estimating the 3D dose distribution delivered using 2D per beam diode array measurements. In this study, the 3D dose distribution generated by 3DVH is compared to film and chamber measurements. In addition, the accuracy ROI volume and error detection is investigated. Methods: Composite film and ion chamber measurements in a solid water phantom were performed for 9 IMRT PINNACLE patient plans for 4 treatment sites. The film and chamber measurements were compared to the dose distribution predicted by 3DVH using MAPCHECK2 per beam measurements. The absolute point dose measurement (CAX) was extracted from the predicted 3DVH and PINNACLE dose distribution and was compared by taking the ratio of measured to predicted doses. The dose distribution measured with film was compared to the distribution in the corresponding plane (AX, SAG, COR) extracted from predicted dose distribution by 3DVH and PINNACLE using a 2D gamma analysis. Gamma analysis was performed with 2% dose, 2 mm DTA, 20% threshold, and global normalization. In addition, the percent difference between 3DVH and PINNACLE ROI volumes was calculated. Results: The average ratio of the measured point dose vs the 3DVH predicted dose was 1.017 (σ=0.011). The average gamma passing rate for measured vs 3DVH dose distributions was 95.1% (σ=2.53%). The average percent difference of 3DVH vs PINNACLE ROI volume was 2.29% (σ=2.5%). Conclusion: The dose distributions predicted by 3DVH using MAPCHECK2 measurements are the same as the distributions that would have been obtained using film and chamber. The ROI volumes used in 3DVH are not an exact match to those in PINNACLE; the effect requires more investigation. The accuracy of error detection by 3DVH is currently being investigated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-142: Automatic Linac Log File: Analysis and Reporting

Purpose: End to end QA for IMRT/VMAT is time consuming. Automated linac log file analysis and recalculation of daily recorded fluence, and hence dose, distribution bring this closer. Methods: Matlab (R2014b, Mathworks) software was written to read in and analyse IMRT/VMAT trajectory log files (TrueBeam 1.5, Varian Medical Systems) overnight, and are archived on a backed-up network drive (figure). A summary report (PDF) is sent by email to the duty linac physicist. A structured summary report (PDF) for each patient is automatically updated for embedding into the R&V system (Mosaiq 2.5, Elekta AG). The report contains cross-referenced hyperlinks to ease navigation between treatment fractions. Gamma analysis can be performed on planned (DICOM RTPlan) and treated (trajectory log) fluence distributions. Trajectory log files can be converted into RTPlan files for dose distribution calculation (Eclipse, AAA10.0.28, VMS). Results: All leaf positions are within +/−0.10mm: 57% within +/−0.01mm; 89% within 0.05mm. Mean leaf position deviation is 0.02mm. Gantry angle variations lie in the range −0.1 to 0.3 degrees, mean 0.04 degrees. Fluence verification shows excellent agreement between planned and treated fluence. Agreement between planned and treated dose distribution, the derived from log files, is very good. Conclusion: Automated log file analysis is a valuable tool for the busy physicist, enabling potential treated fluence distribution errors to be quickly identified. In the near future we will correlate trajectory log analysis with routine IMRT/VMAT QA analysis. This has the potential to reduce, but not eliminate, the QA workload.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: a measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra at 98 and 150 GHz

We present the temperature and polarization angular power spectra of the CMB measured by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 5400 deg2 of the 2013–2016 survey, which covers >15000 deg2 at 98 and 150 GHz. For this analysis we adopt a blinding strategy to help avoid confirmation bias and, related to this, show numerous checks for systematic error done before unblinding. Using the likelihood for the cosmological analysis we constrain secondary sources of anisotropy and foreground emission, and derive a “CMB-only” spectrum that extends to ℓ=4000. At large angular scales, foreground emission at 150 GHz is ∼1% of TT and EE within our selected regions and consistent with that found by Planck. Using the same likelihood, we obtain the cosmological parameters for ΛCDM for the ACT data alone with a prior on the optical depth of τ=0.065±0.015. ΛCDM is a good fit. The best-fit model has a reduced χ2 of 1.07 (PTE=0.07) with H0=67.9±1.5 km/s/Mpc. We show that the lensing BB signal is consistent with ΛCDM and limit the celestial EB polarization angle to ψP =−0.07ˆ±0.09ˆ. We directly cross correlate ACT with Planck and observe generally good agreement but with some discrepancies in TE. All data on which this analysis is based will be publicly released.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SDSS/SEGUE spectral feature analysis for stellar atmospheric parameter estimation

Large-scale and deep sky survey missions are rapidly collecting a large amount of stellar spectra, which necessitate the estimation of atmospheric parameters directly from spectra and make it feasible to statistically investigate latent principles in a large data set. We present a technique for estimating parameters T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H] from stellar spectra. With this technique, we first extract features from stellar spectra using the LASSO algorithm; then, the parameters are estimated from the extracted features using the support vector regression. On a subsample of 20,000 stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with reference parameters provided by the SDSS/SEGUE Spectroscopic Parameter Pipeline, estimation consistency are 0.007458 dex for log T{sub eff} (101.609921 K for T{sub eff}), 0.189557 dex for log g, and 0.182060 for [Fe/H], where the consistency is evaluated by mean absolute error. Prominent characteristics of the proposed scheme are sparseness, locality, and physical interpretability. In this work, each spectrum consists of 3821 fluxes, and 10, 19, and 14 typical wavelength positions are detected, respectively, for estimating T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H]. It is shown that the positions are related to typical lines of stellar spectra. This characteristic is important in investigating physical indications from analysis results. Then, stellar spectra can be described by the individual fluxes on the detected positions (PD) or local integration of fluxes near them (LI). The aforementioned consistency is the result based on features described by LI. If features are described by PD, consistency is 0.009092 dex for log T{sub eff} (124.545075 K for T{sub eff}), 0.198928 dex for log g, and 0.206814 dex for [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MO-FG-BRA-01: Development of An Image-Guided Dosimetric Planning System for Injectable Brachytherapy Using ELP Nanoparticles

Purpose: To develop, validate, and evaluate a methodology for determining dosimetry for intratumoral injections of elastin-like-polypeptide (ELP) brachytherapy nanoparticles. These organic-polymer-based nanoparticles are injectable, biodegradable, and genetically tunable. We present a genetically encoded polymer-solution, composed of novel radiolabeled-ELP nanoparticles that are custom-designed to self-assemble into a local source upon intratumoral injection. Our preliminary results of a small animal study demonstrate 100% tumor response, effective radionuclide retention-rates, strong in vivo stability, and no polymer-induced toxicities. While our approach is therefore highly promising for improved brachytherapy, the current workflow lacks a dosimetry framework. Methods: We are developing a robust software framework that provides image-guided dosimetric-planning capabilities for ELP brachytherapy. The user graphically places ELP injection sites within a µCT-planning-image, and independently defines each injection volume, concentration, and radioisotope to be used. The resulting internal dosimetry is then pre-determined by first modeling post-injection ELP advection-diffusion, and then calculating the resulting dose distribution based on a point- dose-kernel-convolution algorithm. We have experimentally measured ELP steady-state concentrations via µSPECT acquisition, and validated our dose calculation algorithm against Monte Carlo simulations of several radioactivity distributions. Finally, we have investigated potential advantages and limitations of various ELP injection parameters. Results: The µSPECT results demonstrated inhomogeneous steady-state distributions of ELP in tissue, and Monte Carlo radioactivity distributions were designed accordingly. Our algorithm yielded a root-mean-square-error of less than 2% for each distribution tested (average root-mean-square-error was 0.73%). Dose-Volume-Histogram analysis of five different plans showed how strategic injection placement, and an injection volume-tapering technique, could be used to achieve D95% target coverage. Conclusion: We have preliminarily developed a novel planning framework for ELP brachytherapy. Its dosimetry accuracy has been validated against Monte Carlo, and we have started to investigate the potential advantages of injection-based planning. This system, once fully developed, will serve as the technical foundation for our novel approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

GPS Data Filtration Method for Drive Cycle Analysis Applications

When employing GPS data acquisition systems to capture vehicle drive-cycle information, a number of errors often appear in the raw data samples, such as sudden signal loss, extraneous or outlying data points, speed drifting, and signal white noise, all of which limit the quality of field data for use in downstream applications. Unaddressed, these errors significantly impact the reliability ofsource data and limit the effectiveness of traditional drive-cycle analysis approaches and vehicle simulation software. Without reliable speed and time information, the validity of derived metrics for drive cycles, such as acceleration, power, and distance, become questionable. This study explores some of the common sources of error present in raw onboard GPS data and presents a detailedfiltering process designed to correct for these issues. Test data from both light and medium/heavy duty applications are examined to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtration process across the range of vehicle vocations. Graphical comparisons of raw and filtered cycles are presented, and statistical analyses are performed to determine the effects of the proposed filtration processon raw data. Finally, an evaluation of the overall benefits of data filtration on raw GPS data and present potential areas for continued research is presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Full circle mechanical dynamic characterization including experimental modal analysis and finite element analysis

During operation, it was observed that a specific mechanical system experienced undesirable vibration and it became necessary to understand and mitigate this phenomenon. This document investigates the tools, methodology, and results of the dynamic characterization of the system. The characterization makes use of the experimental modal analysis (EMA) methods of single input multiple output (SIMO) and single input single output (SISO). The validity of the theory of reciprocity is confirmed to minimize measurement error, cost, and time of repeat testing. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used in choosing transducer and modal impact locations to adequately characterize the system. Single degree of freedom (SDOF) and multiple degree of freedom (MDOF) curve fitting is used to fully characterize the system’s mode shapes and natural frequencies. The EMA characterization results are used to modify and validate the FEA model so that FEA can be used to model potential structural modifications to the system to mitigate the undesirable vibration. Structural modifications are chosen, implemented, and their effectiveness is quantified using EMA. Finally, a qualitative evaluation of the methodology of FEA validation by EMA and tuning of the model to match the experimental results is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport Biases

Abstract High-fidelity analyses and forecasts of integrated vapor transport (VT) are central to the study of Earth’s hydrological cycle as well as high-impact phenomena such as monsoons and atmospheric rivers. The impact of the in-line analysis correction-based additive inflation (ACAI) on IVT biases and forecast errors is examined within the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) global coupled system. The ACAI technique uses atmospheric analysis corrections from the data assimilation system to approximate model bias and as a representation of stochastic model error to simultaneously reduce systematic and random errors and improve ensemble performance. ACAI reduces the global average magnitude of the 7- and 14-day IVT bias by 16%–17% during Northern Hemisphere summer, reaching 70% reductions in some tropical regions. The global average IVT bias reduction is similar to the bias reduction for low-level wind speed bias and considerably smaller than the bias reduction in total precipitable water. The localized regions where ACAI increases IVT bias occur where the control IVT biases change sign and structure with increasing forecast lead time, such as the South Asian monsoon region. Substituting analyzed wind or moisture fields for the forecast fields when calculating the forecast IVT confirms that, on average, wind errors dominate the IVT error calculation in the tropics, although wind and moisture error contributions are comparable in the extratropics. The existence of regions where using either analyzed winds or analyzed moisture increases IVT bias or mean absolute error reveals areas with compensating errors.

Reynolds, Carolyn A.↗

Use of treatment log files in spot scanning proton therapy as part of patient-specific quality assurance

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to assess the monitor unit (MU) values and position accuracy of spot scanning proton beams as recorded by the daily treatment logs of the treatment control system, and furthermore establish the feasibility of using the delivered spot positions and MU values to calculate and evaluate delivered doses to patients. Methods: To validate the accuracy of the recorded spot positions, the authors generated and executed a test treatment plan containing nine spot positions, to which the authors delivered ten MU each. The spot positions were measured with radiographic films and Matrixx 2D ion-chambers array placed at the isocenter plane and compared for displacements from the planned and recorded positions. Treatment logs for 14 patients were then used to determine the spot MU values and position accuracy of the scanning proton beam delivery system. Univariate analysis was used to detect any systematic error or large variation between patients, treatment dates, proton energies, gantry angles, and planned spot positions. The recorded patient spot positions and MU values were then used to replace the spot positions and MU values in the plan, and the treatment planning system was used to calculate the delivered doses to patients. The results were compared with the treatment plan. Results: Within a treatment session, spot positions were reproducible within {+-}0.2 mm. The spot positions measured by film agreed with the planned positions within {+-}1 mm and with the recorded positions within {+-}0.5 mm. The maximum day-to-day variation for any given spot position was within {+-}1 mm. For all 14 patients, with {approx}1 500 000 spots recorded, the total MU accuracy was within 0.1% of the planned MU values, the mean (x, y) spot displacement from the planned value was (-0.03 mm, -0.01 mm), the maximum (x, y) displacement was (1.68 mm, 2.27 mm), and the (x, y) standard deviation was (0.26 mm, 0.42 mm). The maximum dose difference between calculated dose to the patient based on the plan and recorded data was within 2%. Conclusions: The authors have shown that the treatment log file in a spot scanning proton beam delivery system is precise enough to serve as a quality assurance tool to monitor variation in spot position and MU value, as well as the delivered dose uncertainty from the treatment delivery system. The analysis tool developed here could be useful for assessing spot position uncertainty and thus dose uncertainty for any patient receiving spot scanning proton beam therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Building a Wide-Area File Transfer Performance Predictor: An Empirical Study

Wide-area data transfer is central to geographically distributed scientific workflows. Faster delivery of data is important for these workflows. Predictability is equally (or even more) important. With the goal of providing a reasonably accurate estimate of data transfer time to improve resource allocation & scheduling for workflows and enable end-to-end data transfer optimization, we apply machine learning methods to develop predictive models for data transfer times over a variety of wide area networks. To build and evaluate these models, we use 201,388 transfers, involving 759 million files totaling 9 PB transferred, over 115 heavily used source-destination pairs (“edges”) between 135 unique endpoints. We evaluate the models for different retraining frequencies and different window size of history data. In the best case, the resulting models have a median prediction error of ≤21% for 50% of the edges, and ≤32% for 75% of the edges. We present a detailed analysis of these results that provides insights into the cause of some of the high errors. We envision that the performance predictor will be informative for scheduling geo-distributed workflows. The insights also suggest obvious directions for both further analysis and transfer service optimization.

Liu, Zhengchun↗

Improving cosmological analyses of HI clustering by reducing stochastic noise

High-number-density tracers of large-scale structure, such as the HI-rich galaxies measured by 21 cm intensity mapping, have low sampling noise, making them particularly promising as cosmological probes. At large scales, this sampling noise can be subdominant to other scale-independent contributions to the power spectrum; such contributions arise from nonlinear bias, and exceed the sampling noise if at least one of the associated bias coefficients is sufficiently large. This has important consequences for cosmological constraints obtained from such tracers, since it indicates that using the power spectrum does not lead to optimal constraints even in the linear regime. In this paper, we provide a conservative estimate of the possible improvement in constraining power of a 21 cm survey if one were to use an optimal analysis strategy (such as field-level analysis), where only the true sampling noise enters the error budget. We find that improvements in uncertainties on some cosmological parameters can be as large as 50%, depending on redshift, foreground cleaning efficiency, scales used in the analysis, and instrumental noise. One byproduct of our work is measurements of bias parameters and stochasticity for neutral hydrogen in the IllustrisTNG simulation over a wide range of redshifts; we provide simple fitting formulas for these measurements. Furthermore, our results motivate further exploration of new optimal analysis techniques and provide important insights into the constraining power of current and future 21 cm surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗