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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2014

Intelligent feature selection techniques for pattern classification of Lamb wave signals

Lamb wave interaction with flaws is a complex, three-dimensional phenomenon, which often frustrates signal interpretation schemes based on mode arrival time shifts predicted by dispersion curves. As the flaw severity increases, scattering and mode conversion effects will often dominate the time-domain signals, obscuring available information about flaws because multiple modes may arrive on top of each other. Even for idealized flaw geometries the scattering and mode conversion behavior of Lamb waves is very complex. Here, multi-mode Lamb waves in a metal plate are propagated across a rectangular flat-bottom hole in a sequence of pitch-catch measurements corresponding to the double crosshole tomography geometry. The flaw is sequentially deepened, with the Lamb wave measurements repeated at each flaw depth. Lamb wave tomography reconstructions are used to identify which waveforms have interacted with the flaw and thereby carry information about its depth. Multiple features are extracted from each of the Lamb wave signals using wavelets, which are then fed to statistical pattern classification algorithms that identify flaw severity. In order to achieve the highest classification accuracy, an optimal feature space is required but it’s never known a priori which features are going to be best. For structural health monitoring we make use of the fact that physical flaws, such as corrosion, will only increase over time. This allows us to identify feature vectors which are topologically well-behaved by requiring that sequential classes “line up” in feature vector space. An intelligent feature selection routine is illustrated that identifies favorable class distributions in multi-dimensional feature spaces using computational homology theory. Betti numbers and formal classification accuracies are calculated for each feature space subset to establish a correlation between the topology of the class distribution and the corresponding classification accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE DIFFUSE INTERSTELLAR BANDS AND ANOMALOUS MICROWAVE EMISSION MAY ORIGINATE FROM THE SAME CARRIERS

We argue that the observed spectroscopic and statistical properties of the diffuse interstellar band (DIB) carriers are those that are needed to produce the anomalous microwave emission (AME). We explore this idea using a carrier-impartial model for AME based on the observed DIB statistical properties. We show that an observed distribution of profile widths for narrow DIBs can be mapped into an AME spectrum. The mapping model is applied to width distributions observed for HD 204827 and HD 183143, selected because their spectroscopic and statistical properties bracket those for most other sight lines. The predicted AME spectra for these sight lines agree well with the range of spectral shapes, and peak frequencies, ∼23–31 GHz, typically observed for AME. We use the AME spectral profiles to derive a strong constraint between the average carrier size and its rotational temperature. The constraint is applied to a variety of postulated molecular carrier classes, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, fulleranes, hydrocarbon chains, and amorphous hydrocarbon clusters. The constraint favors small, cold carriers with average sizes of ∼8–15 carbon atoms, and average rotational temperatures of ∼3–10 K, depending on carrier type. We suggest new observations, analyses, and modeling efforts to help resolve the ambiguities with regard to carrier size and class, and to further clarify the DIB–AME relationship.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of underdeveloped torus and broad-line region of weak emission line quasars based on their spectral energy distribution

To unravel the dominant cause of the weak emission line in a subset of optically selected radio-quiet ‘weak emission line quasars’ (WLQs), we have investigated the possibility of an underdeveloped broad line region (BLR). For this, we have modelled spectral energy distributions (SED) of 61 WLQs by using their optical and infrared (IR) photometric observations from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and WISE, respectively. SED fit consists of various emission components, including the luminosity from the dusty torus (L tor ). For comparison with the normal quasar, we have used a control sample of 55 Quasi-Stellar Objects (QSOs) for each WLQ matching in emission redshift and SDSS r-band. Based on our measurement of L tor , we found a decrement of 42 ± 2 per cent in IR luminosity in WLQs with respect to the control sample of normal QSOs. Using L tor /L bol as the measure of torus covering factor (CF tor ), we found a similar decrement in WLQ covering factor, with their CF tor distribution being significantly different with respect to the normal QSOs with a KS test P null of 4.27 × 10 −14 . As dusty torus and BLR covering factors are expected to be of a similar order in active galactic nucleus (AGN), our results suggest that the BLR in the WLQs is underdeveloped and could be a dominant cause of the weakness of their emission line. As a result, our analysis gives support to the models of WLQs based on the evolution scenario being in an early stage of AGNs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Continuous Variable Cluster State Generation over the Optical Spatial Mode Comb

One way quantum computing uses single qubit projective measurements performed on a cluster state (a highly entangled state of multiple qubits) in order to enact quantum gates. The model is promising due to its potential scalability; the cluster state may be produced at the beginning of the computation and operated on over time. Continuous variables (CV) offer another potential benefit in the form of deterministic entanglement generation. This determinism can lead to robust cluster states and scalable quantum computation. Recent demonstrations of CV cluster states have made great strides on the path to scalability utilizing either time or frequency multiplexing in optical parametric oscillators (OPO) both above and below threshold. The techniques relied on a combination of entangling operators and beam splitter transformations. Here we show that an analogous transformation exists for amplifiers with Gaussian inputs states operating on multiple spatial modes. By judicious selection of local oscillators (LOs), the spatial mode distribution is analogous to the optical frequency comb consisting of axial modes in an OPO cavity. We outline an experimental system that generates cluster states across the spatial frequency comb which can also scale the amount of quantum noise reduction to potentially larger than in other systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Search for the X(5568) state decaying into $\mathrm{B}^{0}_{\mathrm{s}}\pi^{\pm}$ in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 8 TeV

A search for resonancelike structures in the Bs0π± invariant mass spectrum is performed using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at s=8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb-1. The Bs0 mesons are reconstructed in the decay chain Bs0→J/ψϕ, with J/ψ→μ+μ- and ϕ→K+K-. The Bs0π± invariant mass distribution shows no statistically significant peaks for different selection requirements on the reconstructed Bs0 and π± candidates. Upper limits are set on the relative production rates of the X(5568) and Bs0 states times the branching fraction of the decay X(5568)±→Bs0π±. In addition, upper limits are obtained as a function of the mass and the natural width of possible exotic states decaying into Bs0π±.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Entropy-Based Test and Development Framework for Uncertainty Modeling in Level-Set Visualizations

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly influences the memory use, run time, and accuracy of an uncertainty visualization algorithm. We use an entropy calculation directly on ensemble data to establish an expected result and then compare the entropy from various probability models, including uniform, Gaussian, histogram, and quantile models. Our results verify that models matching the distribution of the ensemble indeed match the entropy. We further show that fewer bins in nonparametric histogram models are more effective whereas large numbers of bins in quantile models approach data accuracy.

Sisneros, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative Defect Analysis of Ablator Capsule Surfaces Using a Leica Confocal Microscope and a High-Density Atomic Force Microscope

High-density carbon (HDC) is being evaluated as an alternative to the current National Ignition Facility (NIF) point-design ablator material (glow discharge plasma, or GDP, plastic) due to its high density and optimal opacity, which leads to a higher implosion velocity. Chemical-vapor-deposition-coated HDC capsules have a near perfect surface figure but a microscopically rough surface. After polishing, the surface becomes smooth at nanometer scales but has numerous micron-sized surface pits, whose volumes, morphology, and distribution must be quantified to guide NIF target selection. Traditional metrology tools for GDP surface defects, such as the atomic force microscope (AFM) based Spheremapper and a phase-shifting differential interferometer, lack the resolution to characterize these localized features. In this paper, we describe how this metrology challenge is met by developing automated surface metrology solutions based on a high-density (HD) AFM and a Leica confocal microscope. Furthermore, these tools are complementary in nature. HD-AFM has a 0.1-μm spatial resolution and determines the overall shape distortion and pit statistics by tracing great circles on a capsule with high throughput.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

First Attempts at using Active Halo Control at the LHC

The beam halo population is a non-negligible factor for the performance of the LHC collimation system and the machine protection. In particular this could become crucial for aiming at stored beam energies of 700 MJ in the High Luminosity (HL-LHC) project, in order to avoid beam dumps caused by orbit jitter and to ensure safety during a crab cavity failure. Therefore several techniques to safely deplete the halo, i.e. active halo control, are under development. In a first attempt a novel way for safe halo depletion was tested with particle narrow-band excitation employing the LHC Transverse Damper (ADT). At an energy of 450 GeV a bunch selective beam tail scraping without affecting the core distribution was attempted. This paper presents the first measurement results, as well as a simple simulation to model the underlying dynamics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

IEA Bioenergy Task 40 Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing Supply and Demand (Country Report 2014—United States)

Logistical barrier are tied to feedstock harvesting, collection, storage and distribution. Current crop harvesting machinery is unable to selectively harvest preferred components of cellulosic biomass while maintaining acceptable levels of soil carbon and minimizing erosion. Actively managing biomass variability imposes additional functional requirements on biomass harvesting equipment. A physiological variation in biomass arises from differences in genetics, degree of crop maturity, geographical location, climatic events, and harvest methods. This variability presents significant cost and performance risks for bioenergy systems. Currently, processing standards and specifications for cellulosic feedstocks are not as well-developed as for mature commodities. Biomass that is stored with high moisture content or exposed to moisture during storage is susceptible to spoilage, rotting, spontaneous combustion, and odor problems. Appropriate storage methods and strategies are needed to better define storage requirements to preserve the volume and quality of harvested biomass over time and maintain its conversion yield. Raw herbaceous biomass is costly to collect, handle, and transport because of its low density and fibrous nature. Existing conventional, bale-based handling equipment and facilities cannot cost-effectively deliver and store high volumes of biomass, even with improved handling techniques. Current handling and transportation systems designed for moving woodchips can be inefficient for bioenergy processes due to the costs and challenges of transporting, storing, and drying high-moisture biomass. The infrastructure for feedstock logistics has not been defined for the potential variety of locations, climates, feedstocks, storage methods, processing alternatives, etc., which will occur at a national scale. When setting up biomass fuel supply chains, for large-scale biomass systems, logistics are a pivotal part in the system. Various studies have shown that long-distance international transport by ship is feasible in terms of energy use and transportation costs, but availability of suitable vessels and meteorological conditions (e.g., winter time in Scandinavia and Russia) need to be considered. However, local transportation by truck (both in biomass exporting and importing countries) may be a high-cost factor, which can influence the overall energy balance and total biomass costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Tools for Enhanced Grid Operation and Optimized PV Penetration Utilizing Highly Distributed Sensor Data.

Increasing number s of PV on distribution systems are creating more grid impacts , but it also provides more opportunities for measurement, sensing, and control of the grid in a distributed fashion. This report demonstrates three software tools for characterizing and controlling distribution feeders by utilizing large numbers of highly distributed current, voltage , and irradiance sensors. Instructions and a user manual is presented for each tool. First, the tool for distribution system secondary circuit parameter estimation is presented. This tool allows studying distribution system parameter estimation accuracy with user-selected active power, reactive power, and voltage measurements and measurement error levels. Second, the tool for multi-objective inverter control is shown. Various PV inverter control strategies can be selected to objectively compare their impact on the feeder. Third, the tool for energy storage for PV ramp rate smoothing is presented. The tool allows the user to select different storage characteristics (power and energy ratings) and control types (local vs. centralized) to study the tradeoffs between state-of-charge (SOC) management and the amount of ramp rate smoothing.

Reno, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characterization of the tank 51 alternate reductant sludge batch 9 slurry sample (HTF-51-15-130)

Tank 51 slurry sample HTF-51-15-130 was collected following sludge washing at the Tank Farm. The sample was received at SRNL and then characterized in preparation for qualification of the alternate reductant Sludge Batch 9 (SB9) flowsheet. In this characterization, densities, solids distribution, elemental constituents, anionic constituents, carbon content, and select radioisotopes were quantified.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Pantheon+ Analysis: Forward Modeling the Dust and Intrinsic Color Distributions of Type Ia Supernovae, and Quantifying Their Impact on Cosmological Inferences

Abstract Recent studies have shown that the observed color distributions of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be well described by a combination of a dust distribution and an intrinsic color distribution. Using the Pantheon+ sample of 1701 SN Ia, we apply a new forward-modeling fitting method (Dust2Dust) to measure the parent dust and color distributions, including their dependence on host-galaxy mass. At each fit step, the SN Ia selection efficiency is determined from a large simulated sample that is reweighted to reflect the proposed distributions. We use five separate metrics to describe the goodness of fit: distribution of fitted light-curve color c , cosmological residual trends with c , cosmological residual scatter with c , fitted color–luminosity relationship β SALT2 , and intrinsic scatter σ int . We present the results and the uncertainty in 12-dimensional space. Furthermore, we measure that the uncertainty on this modeling propagates to an upper threshold uncertainty in the equation of state of dark energy w of 0.014(1) for the Pantheon+ cosmology analysis and contributes negligible uncertainty to the Hubble constant H 0 . The Dust2Dust code is made publicly available at https://github.com/djbrout/dustdriver .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Selective reabsorption leading to multiple oscillations in the 8446-A atomic-oxygen laser.

Laser oscillation of atomic oxygen at 8446 A occurs in four closely spaced lines with peculiar intensity ratios, all detuned from the atomic center frequencies of the three fine-structure transitions. These anomalies are caused by the selective reabsorption of resonance radiation from the lower laser level by ground-state oxygen atoms. The selectivity results from the fact that the velocity distribution of the laser levels is considerably wider than that of the ground state, because of the dissociative mode of production of excited oxygen atoms. Possible extension of this mechanism to the atomic-hydrogen system is discussed.

Feld, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Model atmospheres for cool stars

This report contains an extensive series of model atmospheres for cool stars having a wide range in chemical composition. Model atmospheres (temperature, pressure, density, etc.) are tabulated, along with emergent energy flux distributions, limb darkening, and information on convection for selected models. The models are calculated under the usual assumptions of hydrostatic equilibrium, constancy of total energy flux (including transport both by radiation and convection) and local thermodynamic equilibrium. Some molecular and atomic line opacity is accounted for as a straight mean. While cool star atmospheres are regimes of complicated physical conditions, and these atmospheres are necessarily approximate, they should be useful for a number of kinds of spectral and atmospheric analysis.

Johnson, H. R.↗