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A Novel Data-based Stochastic Distribution Control for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems
In this note, we present a novel data-based approach to investigate the non-Gaussian stochastic distribution control problem. As the motivation of this note, the existing methods have been summarised regarding to the drawbacks, for example, neural network weights training for unknown stochastic distribution and so on. To overcome these disadvantages, a new transformation for dynamic probability density function is given by kernel density estimation using interpolation. Based upon this transformation, a representative model has been developed while the stochastic distribution control problem has been transformed into an optimisation problem. Then, data-based direct optimisation and identification-based indirect optimisation have been proposed. In addition, the convergences of the presented algorithms are analysed and the effectiveness of these algorithms has been evaluated by numerical examples. In summary, the contributions of this note are as follows: 1) a new data-based probability density function transformation is given; 2) the optimisation algorithms are given based on the presented model; and 3) a new research framework is demonstrated as the potential extensions to the existing stochastic distribution control.
Multidimensional scaling informed by F -statistic: Visualizing grouped microbiome data with inference
Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a widely used dimensionality reduction technique in microbial ecology data analysis that captures the multivariate structure of the data while preserving pairwise distances between samples. While improvements in MDS have enhanced the ability to reveal group-specific data patterns, these MDS-based methods require prior assumptions for inference, limiting their application in general microbiome analysis. Here, in this study, we introduce a new MDS-based ordination method, “F-informed MDS,” which configures the data distribution based on the F-statistic, the ratio of dispersion between groups sharing common and different characteristics. Using semisynthetic datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method is robust to hyperparameter selection while maintaining statistical significance throughout the ordination process. Various quality metrics for evaluating dimensionality reduction confirm that F-informed MDS is comparable to state-of-the-art methods in preserving both local and global data structures. Its application to a diatom-associated bacterial community suggests the role of this new method in interpreting the community’s response to the host. Our approach offers a well-founded refinement of MDS that aligns with statistical test results, which can be beneficial for broader multidimensional data analyses in microbiology and ecology. This new visualization tool can be incorporated into standard microbiome data analyses.
Distributed Tomographic Reconstruction with Quantization
Conventional tomographic reconstruction typically depends on centralized servers for both data storage and computation, leading to concerns about memory limitations and data privacy. Distributed reconstruction algorithms mitigate these issues by partitioning data across multiple nodes, reducing server load and enhancing privacy. However, these algorithms often encounter challenges related to memory constraints and communication overhead between nodes. In this paper, we introduce a decentralized Alternating Directions Method of Multipliers (ADMM) with configurable quantization. By distributing local objectives across nodes, our approach is highly scalable and can efficiently reconstruct images while adapting to available resources. To overcome communication bottlenecks, we propose two quantization techniques based on K-means clustering and JPEG compression. Numerical experiments with benchmark images illustrate the tradeoffs between communication efficiency, memory use, and reconstruction accuracy.
ConKer: An algorithm for evaluating correlations of arbitrary order
Context. High order correlations in the cosmic matter density have become increasingly valuable in cosmological analyses. However, computing these correlation functions is computationally expensive. Aims. We aim to circumvent these challenges by developing a new algorithm called ConKer for estimating correlation functions. Methods. This algorithm performs convolutions of matter distributions with spherical kernels using FFT. Since matter distributions and kernels are defined on a grid, it results in some loss of accuracy in the distance and angle definitions. We study the algorithm setting at which these limitations become critical and suggest ways to minimize them. Results. ConKer is applied to the CMASS sample of the SDSS DR12 galaxy survey and corresponding mock catalogs, and is used to compute the correlation functions up to correlation order n = 5. We compare the n = 2 and n = 3 cases to traditional algorithms to verify the accuracy of the new algorithm. We perform a timing study of the algorithm and find that three of the four distinct processes within the algorithm are nearly independent of the catalog size N , while one subdominant component scales as O ( N ). The dominant portion of the calculation has complexity of O ( N c 4/3 log N c ), where N c is the of cells in a three-dimensional grid corresponding to the matter density. Conclusions. We find ConKer to be a fast and accurate method of probing high order correlations in the cosmic matter density, then discuss its application to upcoming surveys of large-scale structure.
Developing Smart Building Technology Modules to Enhance Workforce Preparedness: A Case for AI-Driven Academic and Professional Education
Smart building technologies are resources that improve building energy efficiency and resilience, reduce carbon emissions, and provide load flexibility to the grid. However, in both academic curricula and building professionals’ continuing education, there is a lack of systematic instruction on methods to integrate multiple energy systems including distributed energy resources (DER), smart building technologies, AI (Artificial Intelligence) tools and key concepts, components, and controls, including “Internet of Things” (IoT) devices. In today’s dynamic workforce, this major gap in smart building technology education prevents stakeholders from being able to attract talent with an understanding and preparation to adopt smart building technologies in building design and operations. A federally funded project included a partnership between Slipstream and Texas A&M University (TAMU) to develop a semester-long smart building curriculum for engineering college students with the ability to adapt the contents for workforce development of professionals in building services. The final product consists of 16 training videos adapted for building professionals and the public. The educational content and training materials cover the benefits of building energy systems, the latest sensor technologies and IoT devices, all with a focus on smart building technologies. The key drivers are on topics related to smart building controls (i.e., energy management information systems), smart building control platforms, cybersecurity, grid-interactive-efficient buildings (GEBs), smart building control methods, and occupant-centric control. Although not explicitly included the technologies nod to the need for AI driven technologies to prepare engineers and industry professionals to be future ready. This paper describes the project approach, provides outlines of the training materials, and identifies lessons learned in creating the content for this course. The authors suggest ways to scale the instruction of smart building concepts to empower the workforce to accelerate the adoption of smart building technologies and AI-based teaching and learning in higher education and building sector.
PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks
We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.
Resilient Design of Continuous-time Distributed Optimization Algorithm in the Presence of Cyber-attacks
This paper presents a continuous-time resilient distributed optimization algorithm based on competitive interaction design method on connected graphs in the presence of adversaries. Here, the competitive interaction method allows us to design a network that protects the multi-agent systems from adversaries without requiring high network connectivity. In addition, the proposed algorithm does not require the global information about the number of adversaries. First, we show that the proposed distributed algorithm solves the resilient distributed optimization problem with no attack on the communication links. Second, we show that the proposed continuous-time distributed optimization algorithm on connected graphs converges to the small neighborhood of the optimal solution in the presence of cyber-attacks onto the communication channel. Simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.
Method and system for providing flexible reserve power for power grid
An optimization-based method and system is disclosed to enable heterogeneous loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in grid ancillary services, such as spinning and non-spinning reserves, and ramping reserves. The method includes receiving inputs for decision parameters for optimizing an objective for obtaining flexible reserve power, solving the objective for obtaining flexible reserve power, determining a reserve power schedule for a prediction horizon for providing flexible reserve power based on the objective, generating a service bid based on the reserve power schedule for the power grid; and when the service bid is accepted, providing flexible reserve power to the power grid based on the service bid.
Systems and methods for randomized, packet-based power management of conditionally-controlled loads and bi-directional distributed energy storage systems
The present disclosure provides a distributed and anonymous approach to demand response of an electricity system. The approach conceptualizes energy consumption and production of distributed-energy resources (DERs) via discrete energy packets that are coordinated by a cyber computing entity that grants or denies energy packet requests from the DERs. The approach leverages a condition of a DER, which is particularly useful for (1) thermostatically-controlled loads, (2) non-thermostatic conditionally-controlled loads, and (3) bi-directional distributed energy storage systems. In a first aspect of the present approach, each DER independently requests the authority to switch on for a fixed amount of time (i.e., packet duration). The coordinator determines whether to grant or deny each request based electric grid and/or energy or power market conditions. In a second aspect, bi-directional DERs, such as distributed-energy storage systems (DESSs) are further able to request to supply energy to the grid.
Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19
This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.
Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory
Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.
Bimetallic Copper/Ruthenium/Osmium Complexes: Observation of Conformational Differences Between the Solution Phase and Solid State by Atomic Pair Distribution Function Analysis
High-energy X-ray scattering and pair distribution function analysis (HEXS/PDF) is a powerful method to reveal the structure of materials lacking long-range order, but is underutilized for molecular complexes in solution. Here we demonstrate the application of HEXS/PDF with 0.26 Å resolution to uncover the solution structure of five bimetallic Cu I /Ru II /Os II complexes. HEXS/PDF of each complex in acetonitrile solution confirms the pairwise distances in the local coordination sphere of each metal center as well as the metal...metal distances separated by over 12 Å. The metal…metal distance detected in solution is compared with that from the crystal structure and molecular models to confirm that distortions to the metal bridging ligand are unique to the solid state. This work presents the first example of observing sub-Ångström conformational differences by direct comparison of solution phase and solid-state structures and shows the potential for HEXS/PDF in the determination of solution structure of single molecules.
Surrogate Distributed Radiological Sources—Part III: Quantitative Distributed Source Reconstructions
In this third part of a multi-paper series, we present quantitative image reconstruction results from aerial measurements of eight different surrogate distributed gamma-ray sources on flat terrain. Here, we show that our quantitative imaging methods can accurately reconstruct the expected shapes, and, after appropriate calibration, the absolute activity of the distributed sources. We conduct several studies of imaging performance versus various measurement and reconstruction parameters, including detector altitude and raster pass spacing, data and modeling fidelity, and regularization type and strength. The imaging quality performance is quantified using various quantitative image quality metrics. Our results confirm the utility of point source arrays as surrogates for truly distributed radiological sources, and advance the quantitative capabilities of Scene Data Fusion gamma-ray imaging methods.
Efficient optimization method for finding minimum energy paths of magnetic transitions
Here, efficient algorithms for the calculation of minimum energy paths of magnetic transitions are implemented within the geodesic nudged elastic band (GNEB) approach. While an objective function is not available for GNEB and a traditional line search can, therefore, not be performed, the use of limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (LBFGS) and conjugate gradient algorithms in conjunction with orthogonal spin optimization (OSO) approach is shown to greatly outperform the previously used velocity projection and dissipative Landau–Lifschitz dynamics optimization methods. The implementation makes use of energy weighted springs for the distribution of the discretization points along the path and this is found to improve performance significantly. The various methods are applied to several test problems using a Heisenberg-type Hamiltonian, extended in some cases to include Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya and exchange interactions beyond nearest neighbours. Minimum energy paths are found for magnetization reversals in a nano-island, collapse of skyrmions in two-dimensional layers and annihilation of a chiral bobber near the surface of a three-dimensional magnet. The LBFGS-OSO method is found to outperform the dynamics based approaches by up to a factor of 8 in some cases.
First results of Ne shattered pellet injection for mitigating plasma disruption with full metal wall in EAST tokamak
Disruption mitigation poses a significant and unresolved challenge for ITER and future fusion reactor devices. To mitigate the effect of plasma disruption, a Shattered Pellet Injection (SPI) system has been developed and the first rapid shutdown experiments have been successfully performed in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak with full metal wall. The experiments confirmed the system’s capability to inject 5 mm diameter neon (Ne) pellets at velocities ranging from 100 to 400 m s −1 , with a maximum injected quantity of 13.2 Pa m 3 . Compared to unmitigated disruptions, the total radiation power was significantly higher with the respective use of SPI and Massive Gas Injection (MGI). Additionally, the radiation distribution and divertor heat flux were compared between SPI and MGI methods. The results demonstrated that SPI exhibited shorter cooling time, stronger core radiation and more uniform poloidal radiation distribution compared to MGI, indicating deeper deposition using SPI. Furthermore, during plasma shutdown, the electron temperature and peak heat flux near outer divertor strike points were reduced by 40% and 50% respectively, with SPI, in comparison to MGI. These findings serve as a valuable reference for implementing SPI technology as the baseline approach for disruption mitigation in ITER.
Polycrystal thermo-elasticity revisited: theory and applications
The self-consistent (SC) theory is the most commonly used mean-field homogenization method to estimate the mechanical response behavior of polycrystals based on the knowledge of the properties and orientation distribution of constituent single-crystal grains. The original elastic SC method can be extended to thermo-elasticity by adding a stress-free strain to an elastic constitutive relation that expresses stress as a linear function of strain. With the addition of this independent term, the problem remains linear. Although the thermo-elastic self-consistent (TESC) model has important theoretical implications for the development of self-consistent homogenization of non-linear polycrystals, in this paper, we focus on TESC applications to actual thermo-elastic problems involving non-cubic (i.e. thermally anisotropic) materials. To achieve this aim, here we provide a thorough description of the TESC theory, which is followed by illustrative examples involving cooling of polycrystalline non-cubic metals. The TESC model allows studying the effect of crystallographic texture and single-crystal elastic and thermal anisotropy on the effective thermo-elastic response of the aggregate and on the internal stresses that develop at the local level.
Reinforcement Learning for Volt- Var Control: A Novel Two-stage Progressive Training Strategy
This paper develops a reinforcement learning (RL) approach to solve a cooperative, multi-agent Volt-Var Control (VVC) problem for high solar penetration distribution systems. The ingenuity of our RL method lies in a novel two-stage progressive training strategy that can effectively improve training speed and convergence of the machine learning algorithm. In Stage 1 (individual training), while holding all the other agents inactive, we separately train each agent to obtain its own optimal VVC actions in the action space: fconsume, generate, do-nothingg. In Stage 2 (cooperative training), all agents are trained again coordinatively to share VVC responsibility. Rewards and costs in our RL scheme include (i) a system-level reward (for taking an action), (ii) an agent-level reward (for doing-nothing), and (iii) an agent-level action cost function. This new framework allows rewards to be dynamically allocated to each agent based on their contribution while accounting for the trade-off between control effectiveness and action cost. The proposed methodology is tested and validated in a modified IEEE 123-bus system using realistic PV and load profiles. Simulation results confirm that the proposed approach is robust and computationally efficient; and it achieves desirable volt-var control performance under a wide range of operation conditions.