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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Pattern Recognition in the PMU Signals in the WECC system

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) data has been used by multiple power system applications, including state estimation, post event analysis, oscillation detection, model validation, and many others. Still, due to its big data nature and availability to general research institutions, comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanisms are incomplete. This study applies a set of signal processing and machine learning approaches aiming at deciphering the characteristic behaviors of multiple phasor measurement units (PMUs) attributes (e.g., voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, phase angle), including their auto-correlation, cross-dependence, similarities and discrepancies across units and temporal scales, and distributions of anomalies and their linkages to potential external factors such as weather events. Data analytics are applied to PMUs from the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PMU measurements, recorded events, outages, and weather extremes are all from real world datasets. The findings from the study and mechanistic understanding of the PMU dynamics help provide guidance on system control or preventing blackouts. The derived metrics can be directly used for adjusting or filtering simulated PMU data used for advanced algorithm development.

Hou, Zhangshuan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-assisted Latent Space Dynamics Learning for Stiff Collisional-radiative Models

Collisional-radiative (CR) models describe the atomic processes in a plasma by tracking the population density in the ground and excited states for each charge state of the atom/ion. These models predict important plasma properties such as charge state distributions and radiative emissivity and opacity. Accurate descriptions of the CR balance of the plasma are essential in fusion whole device modeling, especially when significant impurities are introduced into the plasmas. In an integrated fusion plasma and CR simulation, a CR model, which is a high-dimensional stiff ODE, needs to be solved on each grid point in the configuration space, and can overwhelm the overall computational cost. In this work, we propose a machine-learning-based method that discovers a latent space and learns its corresponding latent dynamics, which can capture the essential physics to make accurate predictions at much lower online computational cost. The proposed approach is physics-assisted, due to its combination of a physical latent space and a data-driven latent space. It has been demonstrated that the proposed architecture can predict both the full-order CR dynamics and a physical quantity of interest accurately.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Household Transportation Energy Affordability by Region and Socioeconomic Factors

Transportation fuel is an important component of household budgets, as 3.3% of total household expenditures are for vehicle fuel nationwide and over 50% of annual household expenditures on energy are for transportation. These average values vary geographically, and higher energy cost burdens are faced by households with lower incomes. Defining transportation energy affordability burden as the percentage of annual household income spent on vehicle fuel, this study aims to quantify affordability as a function of household characteristics and geography. Here, through analysis at the census tract level, this study (i) projects annual household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based on demographic factors using machine-learning techniques, (ii) estimates local differences in vehicle fuel economy and fuel price, and (iii) quantifies resulting transportation energy affordability by census tract. This study found that the average burden by tract varies from 0.15% to 8%. The variation in affordability can be largely explained by income level and vehicle fuel efficiency. Suburban and rural households spend more on transportation energy compared with urban households because of the usage of less fuel-efficient vehicle technologies and higher annual VMT. Lower-income groups have a wide distribution of the percentage of income spent on transportation energy, 1.2% to 8%, whereas the range for the highest income group ($125,000+) is from 0.15% to 3.9%. This detailed transportation energy affordability analysis provides a better understanding of regional variations in household travel behavior, helps to determine where fuel-efficient vehicle technologies are more likely to be used, and improves estimates of vehicle ownership costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phonon second harmonic generation in NaBr studied by inelastic neutron scattering and computer simulation

The phenomenon of second harmonic generation (SHG) was found for phonons in anharmonic NaBr by inelastic neutron scattering. The temperature dependence of this phonon SHG was measured from 300 K to 650 K. At 300 K the second harmonic (SH) is seen as a high-energy branch around 33 meV, nearly independent of $\overrightarrow{Q}$. The temperature effective potential (TDEP) method and classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulation with machine learning interatomic potential were able to reproduce the SH, and showed that SHG occurs with the flat transverse optical (TO) phonon branch. A classical model of a nonlinear medium explains the intensity and lifetime of the SH, compared to those of the TO modes. Also successful was a quantum model based on the Heisenberg-Langevin equation for interacting phonons coupled to a thermal bath, which also predicts a spectral distribution of the SH. In conclusion, the measured temperature dependence of the intensity of the second harmonic showed that it follows the Planck distribution of a one-phonon quasiparticle, and not two TO phonons.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2023

Fine particulate concentrations over East Asia derived from aerosols measured by the Advanced Himawari Imager using machine learning

Fine particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) is deleterious to the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. It is often difficult to assess the effects of PM 2.5 on human health over regions with limited ground monitoring sites, especially in East Asia. As an alternative, we estimated near-surface PM 2.5 concentrations by analyzing Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) Yonsei Aerosol Retrieval (YAER) products. This study incorporates daytime data for East Asia covering the Korean Peninsula, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and southern Mongolia. We collocated AHI YAER product pixels with meteorological, land-cover, and other ancillary data for the period from March 2018 to February 2019. To estimate PM 2.5 concentrations over wide areas spanning many countries displaying various relationships between aerosol optical depth and PM 2.5 , monthly models were developed by considering both the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground-based PM 2.5 measurements. Random forest machine learning model estimated ground-level mass concentrations of PM 2.5 ; subsequent 10-fold cross validation (CV) yielded a CV R 2 value of 0.81 and a CV root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.3 μg m -3 . We investigated the spatial pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations over multiple countries and seasonal variation in PM 2.5 concentrations. Diurnal variation of a severe PM 2.5 event in the Korean Peninsula was investigated as a case study. The model captured the extremely heterogeneous spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations peaked around local noon. To measure the capability of the developed model to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations in areas with few in-situ data, its predictive performance was evaluated using a dataset independent of the training process with an R 2 of 0.60 and RMSE of 8.18 μg m −3 . This study demonstrates the potential for satellite-based PM 2.5 estimation for areas with insufficient measuring stations.

Pm2.5↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distance preserving machine learning for uncertainty aware accelerator capacitance predictions

Abstract Accurate uncertainty estimations are essential for producing reliable machine learning models, especially in safety-critical applications such as accelerator systems. Gaussian process models are generally regarded as the gold standard for this task; however, they can struggle with large, high-dimensional datasets. Combining deep neural networks with Gaussian process approximation techniques has shown promising results, but dimensionality reduction through standard deep neural network layers is not guaranteed to maintain the distance information necessary for Gaussian process models. We build on previous work by comparing the use of the singular value decomposition against a spectral-normalized dense layer as a feature extractor for a deep neural Gaussian process approximation model and apply it to a capacitance prediction problem for the High Voltage Converter Modulators in the Oak Ridge Spallation Neutron Source. Our model shows improved distance preservation and predicts in-distribution capacitance values with less than 1% error.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elucidating Primary Degradation Mechanisms in High-Cycling-Capacity, Compositionally Tunable High-Entropy Hydrides

The hydrogen sorption properties of single-phase bcc (TiVNb) 100–x Cr x alloys (x = 0–35) are reported. All alloys absorb hydrogen quickly at 25 °C, forming fcc hydrides with storage capacity depending on the Cr content. Here, a thermodynamic destabilization of the fcc hydride is observed with increasing Cr concentration, which agrees well with previous compositional machine learning models for metal hydride thermodynamics. The steric effect or repulsive interactions between Cr–H might be responsible for this behavior. The cycling performances of the TiVNbCr alloy show an initial decrease in capacity, which cannot be explained by a structural change. Pair distribution function analysis of the total X-ray scattering on the first and last cycled hydrides demonstrated an average random fcc structure without lattice distortion at short-range order. If the as-cast alloy contains a very low density of defects, the first hydrogen absorption introduces dislocations and vacancies that cumulate into small vacancy clusters, as revealed by positron annihilation spectroscopy. Finally, the main reason for the capacity drop seems to be due to dislocations formed during cycling, while the presence of vacancy clusters might be related to the lattice relaxation. Having identified the major contribution to the capacity loss, compositional modifications to the TiVNbCr system can now be explored that minimize defect formation and maximize material cycling performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing a quantum-accurate machine-learning potential to enable large-scale simulations of deuterium under shock

Large-scale molecular dynamics of deuterium under shock can elucidate kinetic processes vital to the target design in inertial confinement fusion and high-energy-density experiments. However, modeling the complex evolution of this material from an insulating molecular state at ambient pressure to an ionized, atomic fluid under strong shock is beyond the capability of simple pair and even bond order potentials. We thus train a quantum-accurate and broadly transferable machine-learning interatomic potential for deuterium using the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulations framework. We show that due to an improved description of the molecular-to-atomic transition, our model is able to better reproduce the ab initio equation of state, radial distribution functions, and principal Hugoniot than bond order potentials. This represents an important step toward large-scale quantum-accurate and nonequilibrium simulations of complicated systems under dynamic changes including phase transitions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Large Language Model for Determining Partial Tripping of Distributed Energy Resources

Knowing the status of individual distributed energy resources, i.e., being tripped or not, after a contingency can inform the development of an aggregated DER model. Here, this letter presents a large language model application to determine the partial tripping of distributed energy resources depending on the types, locations, and duration of faults in the transmission network. The large language model, or more specifically BERT-based approach can streamline the fault information into tokenized input, which not only reduces the complexity of the machine learning model but also demonstrates a robust performance with only limited data sets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning for Memory Reduction in the Implicit Monte Carlo Simulations of Thermal Radiative Transfer [Slides]

Project Goal: Use parametric Machine Learning methods in order to reduce memory requirements at checkpointing & restarting in the IMC simulations of Thermal Radiative Transfer using: Expectation Maximization and Weighted Gaussian Mixture Model-based approach for `particle-data compression', introduced in Plasma Physics to model Maxwellian particle distributions by Luis Chacon and Guangye Chen; Expectation Maximization with Weighted Hyper-Erlang Model in order to compress isotropic IMC particle data in the frequency domain; and Expectation Maximization and von Mises-Fisher Mixture Model for compression of anisotropic IMC particle data in the angular domain (work-in-progress).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lattice Duality: The Origin of Probability and Entropy

Bayesian probability theory is an inference calculus, which originates from a generalization of inclusion on the Boolean lattice of logical assertions to a degree of inclusion represented by a real number. Dual to this lattice is the distributive lattice of questions constructed from the ordered set of down-sets of assertions, which forms the foundation of the calculus of inquiry-a generalization of information theory. In this paper we introduce this novel perspective on these spaces in which machine learning is performed and discuss the relationship between these results and several proposed generalizations of information theory in the literature.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Channel Assignments for Efficient Use of Aviation Spectrum Allocations

The demand for voice and data communications continues to rise with the emergence of new aerial vehicles into the airspace and the continued growth of aviation operations throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Recent studies have shown that the anticipated growing demand for spectrum resources will exceed the capacity of existing aviation spectrum allocations. Further, airspace configurations, via assignment of fixed channel allocations within standard service volumes, do not allow for the dynamic and efficient distribution of spectrum resources based on airspace demand; as a result, a new approach to aviation spectrum management is needed to support the forecasted needs of new airspace users. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating applications of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and other advanced concepts to solve a dynamic constraint satisfaction problem which is analogous to the frequency assignment problem faced by aviation. Procedures and strategies for dynamic channel allocation can be borrowed from other large-scale mobile services (i.e., 4G/5G applications) and can provide a novel spectrum management approach that allows for the intelligent utilization of aviation spectrum throughout the airspace while maintaining the strict quality of service prescribed by aeronautical standards.

Communications↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Channel Assignments for Efficient Use of Aviation Spectrum Allocations

The demand for voice and data communications continues to rise with the emergence of new aerial vehicles into the airspace and the continued growth of aviation operations throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Recent studies have shown that the anticipated growing demand for spectrum resources will exceed the capacity of existing aviation spectrum allocations. Further, airspace configurations, via assignment of fixed channel allocations within standard service volumes, do not allow for the dynamic and efficient distribution of spectrum resources based on airspace demand; as a result, a new approach to aviation spectrum management is needed to support the forecasted needs of new airspace users. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating applications of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and other advanced concepts to solve a dynamic constraint satisfaction problem which is analogous to the frequency assignment problem faced by aviation. Procedures and strategies for dynamic channel allocation can be borrowed from other large-scale mobile services (i.e., 4G/5G applications) and can provide a novel spectrum management approach that allows for the intelligent utilization of aviation spectrum throughout the airspace while maintaining the strict quality of service prescribed by aeronautical standards.

communications↗