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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Performance of a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar for wind measurements

Measurements of boundary layer winds are presented using a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar and the optimal performance of the maximum likelihood estimator. The systematic error for single-shot estimates was estimated as 3.6 cm/s using measurements from a stationary hard target. The estimation error for measurements of the radial component of the wind field was determined, as well as the fraction of the estimates that are randomly distributed over the velocity search space, when the signal power is low and speckle fading is important. The results from actual data are compared with the results from ideal simulations. The first direct estimation of the spatial structure function of the radial wind field and of the energy dissipation rate is presented for both horizontal and vertical directions of propagation. The rms estimation error of the velocity estimates is found to be within 30% of ideal performance based on simulation.

Frehlich, Rod↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Atmospheric carbon monoxide - Latitudinal distribution of sources

Global measurements of CO, taken over 2-8 years at 16 sites, are used to estimate the latitudinal and seasonal distributions of the sources. It is found that the most concentrated sources of CO, amounting to some 30 percent of the global production, are in the industrialized regions bounded by 30 and 50 deg N. About 47 percent of CO comes from the whole of the midnorthern latitudes and another 40 percent comes from the tropics. The calculations show that the production of CO is significantly higher during spring and summer, particularly in the industrialized latitudes. From these results it is apparent that the observed seasonal cycle of CO concentrations cannot be explained by the seasonal variation of OH alone.

Khalil, M. A. K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Retrieval of Spatio-temporal Distributions of Particle Parameters from Multiwavelength Lidar Measurements Using the Linear Estimation Technique and Comparison with AERONET

The results of the application of the linear estimation technique to multiwavelength Raman lidar measurements performed during the summer of 2011 in Greenbelt, MD, USA, are presented. We demonstrate that multiwavelength lidars are capable not only of providing vertical profiles of particle properties but also of revealing the spatio-temporal evolution of aerosol features. The nighttime 3 Beta + 1 alpha lidar measurements on 21 and 22 July were inverted to spatio-temporal distributions of particle microphysical parameters, such as volume, number density, effective radius and the complex refractive index. The particle volume and number density show strong variation during the night, while the effective radius remains approximately constant. The real part of the refractive index demonstrates a slight decreasing tendency in a region of enhanced extinction coefficient. The linear estimation retrievals are stable and provide time series of particle parameters as a function of height at 4 min resolution. AERONET observations are compared with multiwavelength lidar retrievals showing good agreement.

AERONET↗
NASA NTRS1990

A technique for optimal temperature estimation for modeling sunrise/sunset thermal snap disturbance torque

A predictive temperature estimation technique which can be used to drive a model of the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque experienced by low Earth orbiting spacecraft is described. The twice per orbit impulsive disturbance torque is attributed to vehicle passage in and out of the Earth's shadow cone (umbra), during which large flexible appendages undergo rapidly changing thermal conditions. Flexible members, in particular solar arrays, experience rapid cooling during umbra entrance (Sunset) and rapid heating during exit (Sunrise). The thermal 'snap' phenomena has been observed during normal on-orbit operations of both the LANDSAT-4 satellite and the Communications Technology Satellite (CTS). Thermal 'snap' has also been predicted to be a dominant source of error for the TOPEX satellite. The fundamental equations used to model the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque for a typical solar array like structure will be described. For this derivation the array is assumed to be a thin, cantilevered beam. The time varying thermal gradient is shown to be the driving force behind predicting the thermal 'snap' disturbance torque and therefore motivates the need for accurate estimates of temperature. The development of a technique to optimally estimate appendage surface temperature is highlighted. The objective analysis method used is structured on the Gauss-Markov Theorem and provides an optimal temperature estimate at a prescribed location given data from a distributed thermal sensor network. The optimally estimated surface temperatures could then be used to compute the thermal gradient across the body. The estimation technique is demonstrated using a typical satellite solar array.

Zimbelman, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Control of flexible structures with distributed sensing and processing

Technology is being developed to process signals from distributed sensors using distributed computations. These distributed sensors provide a new feedback capability for vibration control that has not been exploited. Additionally, the sensors proposed are of an optical and distributed nature and could be employed with known techniques of distributed optical computation (Fourier optics, etc.) to accomplish the control system functions of filtering and regulation in a distributed computer. This paper extends the traditional digital, optimal estimation and control theory to include distributed sensing and processing for this application. The design model assumes a finite number of modes which make it amenable to empirical determination of the design model via familiar modal-test techniques. The sensors are assumed to be distributed, but a finite number of point actuators are used. The design process is illustrated by application to a Euler beam. A simulation of the beam is used to design an optimal vibration control system that uses a distributed deflection sensor and nine linear force actuators. Simulations are also used to study the influence of design and processing errors on the performance.

Ghosh, Dave↗
NASA NTRS2024

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗
DOE OSTI2023

2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]

This analysis uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based, offshore, and distributed wind power in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2021 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This study represents the 11th annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Electron and proton flux models for Jupiter's radiation belts

Estimates of the energetic particle distribution in Jupiter's radiation belts are presented and are compared with previous estimates. Mathematical expressions are developed for the equatorial electron and proton fluxes, shielded electron and proton dose rates, and radiation lifetimes of electronic circuits. It is calculated that a 1 g/sq cm aluminum shield will screen out all protons of energy less than 27.5 MeV, and a 2 g/sq cm shield will screen out protons less than 40.6 MeV. The radiation lifetimes are based on a maximum permissible dose value of 10 million rads, a value 1/2 to 1/3 of the flux at which electronic circuits begin to fail. Estimated increases in lifetimes by using a 3 x 50 orbit instead of a 3 x 3 orbit, and going from 1 to 2 g/sq cm are given.

Klopp, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Dynamical consequences of meteorite impacts on the moon

The magnitudes of the excitation of free precession of the lunar spin axis about the position defined by Cassini's laws, free libration in longitude, and free wobble are determined as a function of meteorite angular momentum relative to the lunar center of mass and the position of impact on the lunar surface. Angular-momentum conservation suffices for the estimates of precession and libration excitation, but a cratering model for the ejecta distribution is necessary for the estimate of the wobble excitation. The simultaneous excitation of free wobble is always associated with the excitation of precession, and the angular amplitude is at least comparable to, but may exceed, that of the induced precession by a factor of 3 or 4. It is possible to excite a free libration in longitude with no first-order excitation of free wobble, but generally, all three free motions are excited simultaneously. The induced libration will nearly always have the largest amplitude. For crater sizes scaled as powers of impact energy, impacts leaving craters as small as a few kilometers in diameter can excite free motions which will ultimately be observable by the lunar laser-ranging experiment.

Peale, S. J.↗