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At least 865 records · Page 48

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DASEventNet: AI‐Based Microseismic Detection on Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data From the Utah FORGE Well 16A (78)‐32 Hydraulic Stimulation

Abstract Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has emerged as a promising seismic technology for monitoring microearthquakes (MEQs) with high spatial resolution. Efficient algorithms are needed for processing large DAS data volumes. This study introduces a deep learning (DL) model based on a Residual Convolutional Neural Network (ResNet) for detecting MEQs using DAS data, named as DASEventNet. The test data were collected from the Utah FORGE 16A (78)‐32 hydraulic stimulation experiments conducted in April 2022. The DASEventNet model achieves a remarkable accuracy of 100% when discriminating MEQs from noise in the raw test set of 260 examples. Surprisingly, the model identified weak MEQ signatures that have been manually categorized as noise. The decision‐making process with the model is decoded by the classic activation map, which illuminates learning features of the DASEventNet model. These features provide clear illustrations of weak MEQs and varied noise types. Finally, we apply the trained model to the entire period (∼7 days) of continuous DAS recordings and find that it discovers >5,700 new MEQs, previously unregistered in the public Silixa DAS catalog. The DASEventNet model significantly outperforms the traditional seismic method Short‐Term Average/Long‐Term Average (STA/LTA), which detected only 1,307 MEQs. The DASEventNet detection threshold is M w −1.80 compared to the minimum magnitude of M w −1.14 detected by STA/LTA. The spatiotemporal distribution of the newly identified MEQs defines an extensive stimulation zone and more accurately characterizes fracture geometry. Our results highlight the potential of DL for long‐term, real‐time microseismic monitoring that can improve enhanced geothermal systems and other activities that include subsurface hydraulic fracturing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A novel cosmic filament catalogue from SDSS data

Here, in this work, we present a new catalogue of cosmic filaments obtained from the latest Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) public data. In order to detect filaments, we implement a version of the Subspace-Constrained Mean-Shift algorithm that is boosted by machine learning techniques. This allows us to detect cosmic filaments as one-dimensional maxima in the galaxy density distribution. Our filament catalogue uses the cosmological sample of SDSS, including Data Release 16, and therefore inherits its sky footprint (aside from small border effects) and redshift coverage. In particular, this means that, taking advantage of the quasar sample, our filament reconstruction covers redshifts up to z = 2.2, making it one of the deepest filament reconstructions to our knowledge. We follow a tomographic approach and slice the galaxy data in 269 shells at different redshift. The reconstruction algorithm is applied to 2D spherical maps. The catalogue provides the position and uncertainty of each detection for each redshift slice. The quality of our detections, which we assess with several metrics, show improvement with respect to previous public catalogues obtained with similar methods. We also detect a highly significant correlation between our filament catalogue and galaxy cluster catalogues built from microwave observations of the Planck Satellite and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solving the duck curve in a smart grid environment using a non-cooperative game theory and dynamic pricing profiles

With the intermittency that comes with electricity generation from renewables, utilizing dynamic pricing will encourage the demand-side to respond in a smart way that would minimize the electricity costs and flatten the net electricity demand curve. Determining the optimal dynamic pricing profile that would leverage distributed storage to flatten the curve is a novel idea that needs to be studied. Moreover, the economic feasibility of utilizing distributed electrical energy storage is still not given in the literature. Therefore, in this paper, a novel way of solving a citywide dynamic model using a bilevel programming algorithm is introduced. The problem is developed as a novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game that utilizes air-conditioning systems and electrical storage through the end-users to determine the optimal dynamic pricing profile. The results show that the combined effect of utilizing demand-side air-conditioning systems and distributed storage together can flatten the curve while employing the optimal dynamic pricing profile. An economic study is performed to determine the economic feasibility of 20 different cases with different battery designs and the level of solar penetration. Three metrics were used to evaluate the economic performance of each case: the levelized cost of storage, the levelized cost of energy, and the simple payback period. Most cases had levelized cost of storage values lower than 0.457 $/kWh, which is the lower bound available in the literature. Seven out of 16 cases have a simple payback period shorter than the lifetime of the system (25 years). The case with a 100 MW PV power plant and a battery storage of size 597 MWh, was found to be the most promising case with a simple payback period of 12.71 years for the photovoltaic plant and 19.86 years for the demand-side investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗

Hierarchical Flexibility Offering Strategy for Integrated Hybrid Resources in Real-time Energy Markets

This paper proposes a hierarchical model for determining the energy flexibility offering strategy of integrated hybrid resources (IHRs) in power distribution systems to participate in real-time energy markets. The proposed model utilizes the scalability, fast response time, and uncertainty observation of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to overcome the scalability issue of operating numerous flexible resources and deliverability of energy flexibility to the real-time markets in the presence of the network constraints. To that end, the power distribution system is divided into multiple IHRs, where different types of flexible loads, energy storage systems, and solar plants with controllable inverters are operated through local IHR controllers, trained by deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm. Active power request and reactive power capacity of IHRs are then transmitted to a central flexibility controller, where a quadratic optimization model ensures the deliverability of the energy flexibility to the real-time energy market by satisfying the distribution network constraints. The proposed model is implemented on the 123-bus test power distribution system, demonstrating the capability of DRL-based hierarchical model for scalable operation of IHRs in order to offer deliverable energy flexibility to the real-time energy market.

Majidi, Majid↗

Unorthodox parallelization for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Quantum state tomography (QST) allows for the reconstruction of quantum states through measurements and some inference technique under the assumption of repeated state preparations. Bayesian inference provides a promising platform to achieve both efficient QST and accurate uncertainty quantification, yet is generally plagued by the computational limitations associated with long Markov chains. In this work, we present a novel Bayesian QST approach that leverages modern distributed parallel computer architectures to efficiently sample a D-dimensional Hilbert space. Using a parallelized preconditioned Crank–Nicholson Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, we demonstrate our approach on simulated data and experimental results from IBM Quantum systems up to four qubits, showing significant speedups through parallelization. Although highly unorthodox in pooling independent Markov chains, our method proves remarkably practical, with validation ex post facto via diagnostics like the intrachain autocorrelation time. We conclude by discussing scalability to higher-dimensional systems, offering a path toward efficient and accurate Bayesian characterization of large quantum systems.

Bayesian inference↗

Implementation of a practical Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm in PyBioNetFit

Abstract Summary Bayesian inference in biological modeling commonly relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a multidimensional and non-Gaussian posterior distribution that is not analytically tractable. Here, we present the implementation of a practical MCMC method in the open-source software package PyBioNetFit (PyBNF), which is designed to support parameterization of mathematical models for biological systems. The new MCMC method, am, incorporates an adaptive move proposal distribution. For warm starts, sampling can be initiated at a specified location in parameter space and with a multivariate Gaussian proposal distribution defined initially by a specified covariance matrix. Multiple chains can be generated in parallel using a computer cluster. We demonstrate that am can be used to successfully solve real-world Bayesian inference problems, including forecasting of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 case detection with Bayesian quantification of forecast uncertainty. Availability and implementation PyBNF version 1.1.9, the first stable release with am, is available at PyPI and can be installed using the pip package-management system on platforms that have a working installation of Python 3. PyBNF relies on libRoadRunner and BioNetGen for simulations (e.g. numerical integration of ordinary differential equations defined in SBML or BNGL files) and Dask.Distributed for task scheduling on Linux computer clusters. The Python source code can be freely downloaded/cloned from GitHub and used and modified under terms of the BSD-3 license (https://github.com/lanl/pybnf). Online documentation covering installation/usage is available (https://pybnf.readthedocs.io/en/latest/). A tutorial video is available on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aRqpqFOiS4&t=63s). Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Clutter Distributions for Tomographic Image Standardization in Ground-Penetrating Radar

Multistatic ground-penetrating radar (GPR) signals can be imaged tomographically to produce 3-D distributions of image intensities. In the absence of objects of interest, these intensities can be considered to be estimates of clutter. These clutter intensities spatially vary over several orders of magnitude and vary across different arrays, which makes a direct comparison of these raw intensities difficult. However, by gathering statistics on these intensities and their spatial variation, a variety of metrics can be determined. In this study, the clutter distribution is found to fit better to a two-parameter Weibull distribution than Gaussian or log-normal distributions. Based on the spatial variation of the two Weibull parameters, scale and shape, more information may be gleaned from these data. How well the GPR array is illuminating various parts of the ground, in depth and cross track, may be determined from the spatial variation of the Weibull scale parameter, which may in turn be used to estimate an effective attenuation coefficient in the soil. The transition in depth from clutter- to noise-limited conditions (which is one possible definition of GPR penetration depth) can be estimated from the spatial variation of the Weibull shape parameter. Lastly, the underlying clutter distributions also provide an opportunity to standardize image intensities to determine when a statistically significant deviation from background (clutter) has occurred, which is convenient for buried threat detection algorithm development that needs to be robust across multiple different arrays.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operations of networked cyberphysical systems

This report includes two main accomplishments of the peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operation of networked microgrids project in FY24, which include a scheme for cyberattack-aware coordination of networked microgrids for supporting voltages of bulk power systems and a scheme for price signal-based operations of EV-rich networked microgrids with mixed ownership. First, the cyberattack-aware scheme enables networked microgrids to distributedly determine the amount of reactive power injection to support the voltage of bulk power system (BPS) in a fair manner. In this scheme, a risk-informed algorithm is presented to generate the peer-to- peer (P2P) communication graph with minimal risk of attack on communication links. To deal with cyberattacks on MG controllers, the resilient consensus algorithm (CA) is utilized for MG controllers to robustly estimate the total reactive power headroom, from which the MGs can accurately provide the needed amount of reactive power injection for supporting the voltage of BPS. The CA implementation and performance within the P2P communication framework are demonstrated on the IEEE 39-bus system with 6 microgrids contained in the distribution feeder under different cyberattack scenarios. Second, the price-based scheme enables the usage of the real-time price signal for the operations of electric vehicle (EV)-rich networked-microgrids with mixed ownership, in which not all the microgrids can communicate with the distribution system operator (DSO). In this scheme, a max consensus is introduced to enable the real-time price signal to be propagated from the DSO to all the microgrids, from which each microgrid controller will manage the DERs to balance the load demand and the power injection from the EV charging stations within its microgrid. Numerical results over one day with 288 slots of 5-minute intervals on the modified 123-node test feeder including 3 microgrids with high penetration of EV are presented to evaluate how the price signal affects the operations of networked microgrids under different charging strategies of the EV charging stations. The result indicates that our proposed EVCS (dis)charging strategy, which leverages the flexibility of EVs to support the grid through discharging during peak demand, proves to be a cost-effective solution that reduces operational costs while improving the social welfare of EV charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resilient Hierarchical Networked Control Systems: Secure Controls for Critical Locations and at Edge

Integration of information and communication technology (ICT) offers new opportunities in improving the management and operation of critical infrastructures such as power systems as it allows connection of different sensors and control components via a communication network, leading to the so-called networked control systems (NCS). However, the use of open and pervasive ICT such as the Internet or wireless communication technologies comes at a price of making NCS vulnerable to cyber intrusions/attacks which may cause physical damage. Here, this chapter presents control algorithms to ensure resilient and safe operation of NCS under unknown cyberattacks. Specifically, a variant of dynamic watermarking strategies is presented by embedding encoding/decoding components of chaotic signals into the NCS for secure control for critical locations where the measurement/control signals are transmitted to/from the control center via a communication network. In addition, resilient cooperative control algorithms are discussed to ensure safe operation at edge of the NCS which consists of a large number of distributed controllable devices. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed control strategies.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A finite difference informed random walker (FDiRW) solver for strongly inhomogeneous diffusion problems

In nature, many complex multi-physics coupling problems exhibit strong diffusivity inhomogeneity. For instance, in the context of radionuclide absorption by porous wasteform materials within a flowing waste stream, the difference of species’ diffusivity in solid and liquid phases spans by 3~8 orders of magnitude. To solve the diffusion equations with strongly inhomogeneous diffusivity, traditional discretization-based methods, such as the Finite Difference Method (FDM), require infinitesimally small time steps (<10 -10 ) as high spatial resolutions are employed in most microstructure evolution processes, leading to prohibitively high computational costs. Here, this work developed an integrated numerical approach (FDiRW: Finite Difference informed Random Walk) to tackle this challenge. The idea is that utilizing the Random Walk concept, the fast diffusion is modeled as a superposition of point source’s solution for a concentration distribution while FDM is used to obtain the point source’s solution at each node. A mesh-coarsening algorithm is developed to generate an exclusive coarse mesh for FDiRW approach to maximize its efficiency. The effectiveness of the coarse mesh-based FDiRW approach is validated by benchmarking Finite Difference solutions. Numerical results demonstrated that FDiRW achieves a remarkable 1000x computational efficiency improvement over FDM while preserving desired accuracy for a medium-sized model of 192 × 192 × 192 grids. Finally, as models scale up, a floating-point operations (PLOPs) analysis of the FDiRW algorithm reveals that its computational complexity grows quadratically in terms of the number of nodes employed in computation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

AutoEnRichness: A hybrid empirical and analytical approach for estimating the richness of galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT We introduce AutoEnRichness, a hybrid approach that combines empirical and analytical strategies to determine the richness of galaxy clusters (in the redshift range of 0.1 ≤ z ≤ 0.35) using photometry data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16, where cluster richness can be used as a proxy for cluster mass. In order to reliably estimate cluster richness, it is vital that the background subtraction is as accurate as possible when distinguishing cluster and field galaxies to mitigate severe contamination. AutoEnRichness is comprised of a multistage machine learning algorithm that performs background subtraction of interloping field galaxies along the cluster line of sight and a conventional luminosity distribution fitting approach that estimates cluster richness based only on the number of galaxies within a magnitude range and search area. In this proof-of-concept study, we obtain a balanced accuracy of 83.20 per cent when distinguishing between cluster and field galaxies as well as a median absolute percentage error of 33.50 per cent between our estimated cluster richnesses and known cluster richnesses within r200. In the future, we aim for AutoEnRichness to be applied on upcoming large-scale optical surveys, such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and Euclid, to estimate the richness of a large sample of galaxy groups and clusters from across the halo mass function. This would advance our overall understanding of galaxy evolution within overdense environments as well as enable cosmological parameters to be further constrained.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Pristine survey – XVI. The metallicity of 26 stellar streams around the Milky Way detected with the STREAMFINDER in Gaia EDR3

ABSTRACT We use the photometric metallicities provided by the panoramic Pristine survey to study the veracity and derive the metallicities of the numerous stellar streams found by the application of the STREAMFINDER algorithm to the Gaia Early Data Release 3 data. All 26 streams present in Pristine show a clear metallicity distribution function, which provides an independent check of the reality of these structures, supporting the reliability of STREAMFINDER in finding streams and the power of Pristine to measure precise metallicities. We further present six candidate structures with coherent phase-space and metallicity signals that are very likely streams. The majority of studied streams are very metal-poor (14 structures with [Fe/H] < −2.0) and include three systems with [Fe/H] < −2.9 (C-11, C-19, and C-20). These streams could be the closest debris of low-luminosity dwarf galaxies or may have originated from globular clusters of significantly lower metallicity than any known current Milky Way globular cluster. Our study shows that the promise of the Gaia data for Galactic Archeology studies can be substantially strengthened by quality photometric metallicities, allowing us to peer back into the earliest epochs of the formation of our Galaxy and its stellar halo constituents.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗