Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Full Modeling and parameter compression methods in configuration space for DESI 2024 and beyond

In the contemporary era of high-precision spectroscopic surveys, led by projects like DESI, there is an increasing demand for optimizing the extraction of cosmological information from clustering data. This work conducts a thorough comparison of various methodologies for modeling the full shape of the two-point statistics in configuration space. We investigate the performance of both direct fits (Full Modeling) and the parameter compression approaches (ShapeFit and Standard). We utilize the ABACUS-SUMMIT simulations, tailored to exceed DESI's precision requirements. Particularly, we fit the two-point statistics of three distinct tracers (LRG, ELG, and QSO), by employing a Gaussian Streaming Model in tandem with Convolution Lagrangian Perturbation Theory and Effective Field Theory. We explore methodological setup variations, including the range of scales, the set of galaxy bias parameters, the inclusion of the hexadecapole, as well as model extensions encompassing varying ns and allowing for w 0 w a CDM dark energy model. Throughout these varied explorations, while precision levels fluctuate and certain configurations exhibit tighter parameter constraints, our pipeline consistently recovers the parameter values of the mocks within 1σ in all cases for a 1-year DESI volume. Additionally, we compare the performance of configuration space analysis with its Fourier space counterpart using three models: PyBird, FOLPS and velocileptors, presented in companion papers. We find good agreement with the results from all these models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

CRADA Number NFE-19-07846 with Grid Fruit, LLC (CRADA Final Report)

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) NFE-19-07846 between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Grid Fruit, LLC (Grid Fruit) focused on simulating, monitoring, and adjusting controls of commercial refrigerator and freezer systems to provide load flexibility and demand response services from these machines. Viewing these medium and low-temp coolers as thermal masses, the volumes of chilled air in these coolers make them time-shiftable loads ripe for deployment at optimal times. Grid Fruit is a startup company developing methods to schedule the chilling cycles (e.g., in “build load” and “shed load” grid events) to provide energy efficiency, peak shifting, and other benefits both to the grid and the broader environment. These benefits can be magnified by coordinating chillers with HVAC, lights, computers, and other loads. Grid Fruit completed simulations and then selected and ordered controls hardware to prove the technology were successful, but the diversity of chiller models in the field without digital controls, as well as limited market demand at present, make further exploration necessary before commercialization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicle Dynamic Wireless Charging

The electrification of the transportation sector poses an opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Electric vehicle (EV) charging through dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), known as roadway electrification, could shift EV demand profiles to better coincide with renewable electricity generation. However, this would be a very large new load and few studies evaluate the regional impacts of DWPT charging in a power transmission system. This paper defines methods that address dataset generation for passenger vehicle trips and models to evaluate regional impacts for this emerging technology. Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data form localized EV demand profiles through discrete-event simulation. This data serves as exogenous inputs for a Production Cost Model (PCM) of a synthetic transmission system based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas's (ERCOT) network. EV charging methods are compared for both a 2018 baseline generation mixture and a high-renewable generation case incorporating 20 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The PCM employs unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) models to compare financial, environmental, and grid reliability impacts from EV charging across passenger EV adoption levels. In-transit charging could reduce grid operational costs by as much as 1.49%, with up to $13.7B saved in annual vehicle operational costs for consumers compared to gas-powered vehicles. Health impacts analysis from power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions from this study show net health benefits increase by 40% for in-transit charging coupled with high renewable generation. Renewable resources provide an avenue for cost-effective in-transit charging with reduced emissions. The combination of dataset generation and open-source power system modeling establish a foundation for the holistic evaluation of regional DWPT impacts.

dynamic wireless power transfer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular supply chain optimization considering demand uncertainty to manage risk

Supply chain under demand uncertainty has been a challenging problem due to increased competition and market volatility in modern markets. Flexibility in planning decisions makes modular manufacturing a promising way to address this problem. We report the problem of multiperiod process and supply chain network design is considered under demand uncertainty. A mixed integer two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated with integer variables indicating the process design and continuous variables to represent the material flow in the supply chain. The problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach. Benders decomposition is used to reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. To promote risk-averse decisions, a downside risk measure is incorporated in the model. The results demonstrate the several advantages of modular designs in meeting product demands. A pareto-optimal curve for minimizing the objectives of expected cost and downside risk is obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critical impact of experimentally-driven strut level anisotropic material models in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures

The rapid acceleration in materials discovery may overshadow the importance of thoroughly understanding the mechanical performance of newly developed materials in demanding environments. The recent interest in combining parametric studies with machine learning techniques to explore how changes in specific processing parameters or model inputs affect the overall behavior of a material system can only be truly beneficial if the governing constitutive relations describing material behavior are accurately established. In this study, we demonstrate the critical impact of accurately representing strut-level anisotropic material behavior in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures (AMLS). We introduce a systematic experimental and modeling approach for developing strut-level anisotropic elastoplastic material models that account for the influence of microstructural features such as porosity, texture, and surface roughness on the development of local anisotropic mechanical properties, which vary with strut orientation relative to the build direction (BD). As a result the presented material model captures and relates the statistics of spatially varying struts’ microstructural features to the local stress distribution. Our findings suggest that incorporating strut-level anisotropic material behavior into unit cell analysis significantly influences the load distribution and evolution of local stresses within the structure. Therefore, accounting for this anisotropy is critical for developing an understanding of unit cell behavior and performance, including subsequent topology/component design optimization based on this analysis.

Sahoo, Subhadip [University of Arizona]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of Interparticle Spacing Model to Maximize Filler Content in Cementitious Pastes

One of the most impactful ways to reduce embodied carbon of concrete in the near term is by partially replacing Portland cement with supplementary cementitious materials and/or fillers. This article describes an approach to reduce cement content in concrete through the development of high filler, low water (HFLW) cementitious pastes. Pastes with cement content as low as 50% (% weight of fines) were designed by applying models that maximize the packing density of the granular system and that consider the characteristics of the materials to calculate interparticle spacing (IPS), thereby allowing to obtain pastes with higher solids concentration and lower water demand. Strong correlations were found between IPS, the consistency index of the Herschel-Bulkley rheological model, and cement hydration kinetic parameters of binary and ternary pastes containing a Portland limestone cement and up to two different types of ground limestone. The approach showed to be feasible for the design of HFLW concrete paste fraction.

Antunes da Silva, Denise↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Managed Fast-Charging Model for Electric Vehicle Fleets with High Utilization and Multiple Charge-Acceptance Curves

A predictive control/scheduling optimization model is proposed for managed charging of an electric vehicle (EV) fleet - under time-of-use energy and demand prices, high vehicle utilization frequency (short dwell times), multiple charge- acceptance curves (configurable charging rates), and flexible vehicle demand. This context is particularly relevant for flight schools (small electric aircraft) or other commercial facilities where an EV fleet performs multiple operating and fast-charging sessions on the same day. The proposed model performs both the operational and charging scheduling of the vehicles, which is not typically done for residential managed charging and significantly increases problem complexity. The problem is formulated as a MILP model and a case study of a small fast-charging station is presented. Results demonstrate a significant reduction in operating cost, mainly from peak shaving during high demand price periods, achieved by coordinating the operation of different vehicles, chargers and charging rates.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability-informed end-of-use decision making for product sustainability using two-stage stochastic optimization

The concept of circular economy has been diffused in recent decades to promote economic growth that does not add to the burden on natural resource extraction. Re-X options (e.g., reuse, repair, refurbish, remanufacture, recycle) have been gradually adopted in the product development process and optimized to reduce or eliminate waste and pollution. Although manufacturing incorporating Re-X options can be more environmentally friendly, it involves more sources of uncertainty than traditional manufacturing since the end-of-use products can be collected from multiple origins with various quantities and qualities, and the market demand for both new and remanufactured products cannot be forecasted perfectly. Thus, there is a need to optimize the Re-X policy to alleviate the negative impacts of the higher uncertainty. One option is using the reliability information of new products to estimate the end-of-use conditions and applying multi-stage stochastic optimization to capture multiple demand scenarios. This paper develops a two-stage stochastic optimization model to optimize the quality thresholds for reuse, recycling, and remanufacturing options. Our objective is to minimize the total cost, energy consumption, and environmental impact of producing and providing warranty service for a product family. The model employs reliability information of product components to estimate the warranty service cost and the end-of-use conditions of the returned resources. A case study on a general product family is implemented to illustrate the efficacy of the optimization model. Finally, results show that the two-stage optimization can achieve cost and environmental impact reduction for a hybrid manufacturing and remanufacturing process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical validation and comparison of methodologies to simulate micro and macro-encapsulated PCMs in the building envelope

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) has the potential to shift peak electricity demand. Passive TES is usually implemented in building envelope as micro and macro encapsulated phase change materials (PCM) to shift electric energy demand and therefore requires careful heat transfer analysis. Whole building energy modelling with simplified heat transfer analysis has become extremely important for designers, architects, engineers, and researchers to predict energy performance of buildings. It is important to validate PCM modelling algorithms used in building energy programs to quantify their error and prove their capacity to model different PCM encapsulation types. This study uses data from a microencapsulated PCM and two macroencapsulated PCMs (Bio based PCM and hydrate salts) tested in full-scale using the Advanced Multiscale Building Energy Research (AMBER) Lab located at the Colorado School of Mines and is used to validate a numerical algorithm written in MATLAB language. To approximate the heat transfer through a wall assembly with macroencapsulated PCM pouches, several modelling techniques that can reduce 3D heat transfer characteristics to 1D are explored in this research. A parallel path heat transfer modelling approach is found to give the closest agreement with the experimental data for the pouched PCMs in building envelope applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photometric redshifts probability density estimation from recurrent neural networks in the DECam local volume exploration survey data release 2

Photometric wide-field surveys are imaging the sky in unprecedented detail. These surveys face a significant challenge in efficiently estimating galactic photometric redshifts while accurately quantifying associated uncertainties. In this work, we address this challenge by exploring the estimation of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for the photometric redshifts of galaxies across a vast area of 17,000 square degrees, encompassing objects with a median 5 σ point-source depth of g = 24.3, r = 23 . 9 , i = 23.5, and z = 22.8 mag. Our approach uses deep learning, specifically integrating a Recurrent Neural Network architecture with a Mixture Density Network, to leverage magnitudes and colors as input features for constructing photometric redshift PDFs across the whole DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey sky footprint. Subsequently, we rigorously evaluate the reliability and robustness of our estimation methodology, gauging its performance against other well-established machine learning methods to ensure the quality of our redshift estimations. Our best results constrain photometric redshifts with the bias of − 0 . 0013 , a scatter of 0.0293, and an outlier fraction of 5.1%. These point estimates are accompanied by well-calibrated PDFs evaluated using diagnostic tools such as Probability Integral Transform and Odds distribution. We also address the problem of the accessibility of PDFs in terms of disk space storage and the time demand required to generate their corresponding parameters.We present a novel Autoencoder model that reduces the size of PDF parameter arrays to one-sixth of their original length, significantly decreasing the time required for PDF generation to one-eighth of the time needed when generating PDFs directly from the magnitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scale-up of microwave-assisted, continuous flow, liquid phase reactors: Application to 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural production

Microwave (MW) technology can be powerful for the electrification and intensification of chemical manufacturing. However, very few examples of scaled MW processes exist. In this work, we build a scaled, MW-assisted, continuous flow reactor for the processing of liquid phase chemistries with specific application to 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) production. Here, we demonstrate a corresponding computational fluid dynamics model to simulate the reactor’s temperature profile and performance, both of which are in good agreement with experiments. We construct a surrogate model to relate operating parameters to performance for guiding experiments, without demanding simulations, via active learning. Heat recirculation is demonstrated in this scaled reactor, further extending its scale and reducing the energy demand. An HMF yield of ~55 % and a productivity of 0.1 kg/hr, 8x higher than any other reactor, at a flowrate >20x than prior work, are demonstrated while maintaining energy efficiency of >98 %. A basic economic analysis estimates a $1.85/kg cost of HMF from fructose and >60 % reduction in CO 2 emissions than a conventional system without considering the impact of green electricity. We demonstrate that MW technology is well-applied to systems larger than the laboratory scale, and strategies to further reduction in cost and CO 2 are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A B-spline based gradient-enhanced micropolar implicit material point method for large localized inelastic deformations

The quasi-brittle response of cohesive-frictional materials in numerical simulations is commonly represented by softening plasticity or continuum damage models, either individually or in combination. However, classical models, particularly when coupled with non-associated plasticity, often suffer from ill-posedness and a lack of objectivity in numerical simulations. Moreover, the performance of the finite element method significantly degrades in simulations involving finite strains when mesh distortion reaches excessive levels. This represents a challenge for modeling cohesive-frictional materials, given their tendency to experience strongly localized deformations, such as those occurring during shear band dominated failure. Hence, accurate modeling of the response of cohesive-frictional solids is a demanding task. To address these challenges, we present an extension of the material point method (MPM) for the unified gradient-enhanced micropolar continuum, aiming at the analysis of finite localized inelastic deformations in cohesive-frictional materials. The generalized gradient-enhanced micropolar continuum formulation is employed to tackle challenges related to localization and softening material behavior, while the MPM addresses issues arising from excessive deformations. The method utilizes a B-spline formulation for the rigid background mesh to mitigate the well-known cell crossing errors of the MPM. To demonstrate the performance of the method, 2D and 3D numerical studies on localized failure in sandstone in plane strain compression and triaxial extension tests are presented. A comparison with finite element results confirms the suitability of the formulation. Moreover, an efficient numerical implementation of the formulation is presented, and it is demonstrated that the additional MPM specific overhead is negligible.

B-spline↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid grain refinement and compositional homogenization in a cast binary Cu50Ni alloy achieved by friction stir processing

Friction stir processing (FSP) has been increasingly adopted for joining and processing materials in automotive, aerospace and industrial construction. During FSP a dynamic competition between high-speed shear deformation and deformation-induced heating brings about a complex competition between multiple dynamic microstructural evolution mechanisms making it difficult to predict the microstructural evolution pathway. Hence, improved understanding of microstructural evolution mechanisms during FSP can be beneficial for continued growth in the adoption of FSP for demanding applications of future. Towards this goal, this study uses a model binary Cu – 50 at.% Ni alloy to clarify the effect of single and double pass FSP on the microstructural evolution of a coarse grained and compositionally heterogeneous cast microstructure. High energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction, electron backscatter diffraction, and nanoindentation are used to clarify the microstructural evolution due to FSP. The process of compositional homogenization of as-cast segregations is studied by energy dispersive spectroscopy and atom probe tomography. Our results show that a single fast FSP pass at 30 mm.s -1 produces a 100 µm deep layer of submicrometric and hall-petch hardened CuNi grains. The initial cast compositional heterogeneities in a micrometric scale is rapidly transformed to nano-sized domains, mainly confined at grain boundaries. Double pass FSP increases the penetration depth of the processed layer and leads to a 2.9 times grain growth relative to single pass FSP. Grain fragmentation, discontinuous dynamic recrystallization, grain growth, and twinning mechanisms are discussed. In conclusion, these results highlight the value of FSP for ultrafast grain refinement and compositional homogenization of cast alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid electric buses fuel consumption prediction based on real-world driving data

Estimating fuel consumption by hybrid diesel buses is challenging due to its diversified operations and driving cycles. Here, long-term transit bus monitoring data were utilized to empirically compare fuel consumption of diesel and hybrid buses under various driving conditions. Artificial neural network (ANN) based high-fidelity microscopic (1 Hz) and mesoscopic (5–60 min) fuel consumption models were developed for hybrid buses. The microscopic model contained 1 Hz driving, grade, and environment variables. The mesoscopic model aggregated 1 Hz data into 5 to 60-minute traffic pattern factors and predicted average fuel consumption over its duration. The prediction results show mean absolute percentage errors of 1–2% for microscopic models and 5–8% for mesoscopic models. The data were partitioned by different driving speeds, vehicle engine demand, and road grade to investigate their impacts on prediction performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced-Order Models of Static Power Grids based on Spectral Clustering

For large-scale interconnected power systems that cover large geographical areas, certain electrical studies are required so that appropriate decisions ensure system reliability and low cost. For such studies, it is often neither practical nor necessary to model in detail the entire power system, which is increasingly complex due to a more diverse range of grid assets to choose from in both short and long-term planning. The goal of this paper is to present a methodology to reduce the order of large-scale power networks based on spectral graph theory given that current methods for static network reduction are not scalable. A brief analysis of some spectral clustering properties to determine which graph Laplacian matrix should be used and why is included. The analysis shows that the utilization of the normalized graph Laplacian is more advantageous for clustering purposes. Techniques are proposed to approximate cost functions for the aggregated generators. This is done via linear regression. The reduced-order model obtained with the proposed methodology has an accuracy above 94% and solves the scalability issue commonly present in other reduction methods. If the utilization of the reduced-order model is either constrained to load levels above mid-peak demand, or cost functions of aggregated units are approximated via a piecewise quadratic approach, then the error distribution is in the order of 10^-3. .

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗