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NASA NTRS1998

EOS CHEM: A Mission to Study Ozone and Climate

The Earth's stratosphere contains the ozone layer, which shields us from the Sun@ harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Ozone is destroyed through chemical reactions involving natural and man-made nitrogen, hydrogen, bromine, and chlorine compounds. The release of chlorofluoro-carbons CFCs) has caused a dramatic decrease in the protective stratospheric ozone layer during the last two decades. Detection of stratospheric ozone depletion led to regulation and phase-out of CFC production worldwide. As a result, man-made chlorine levels in the atmosphere are slowly beginning to decrease. CHEM will be able to determine whether the stratospheric ozone layer is now recovering, as predicted by scientific models.

Schoeberl, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2003

Enhancement and Extension of Porosity Model in the FDNS-500 Code to Provide Enhanced Simulations of Rocket Engine Components

In the past, the design of rocket engines has primarily relied on the cold flow/hot fire test, and the empirical correlations developed based on the database from previous designs. However, it is very costly to fabricate and test various hardware designs during the design cycle, whereas the empirical model becomes unreliable in designing the advanced rocket engine where its operating conditions exceed the range of the database. The main goal of the 2nd Generation Reusable Launching Vehicle (GEN-II RLV) is to reduce the cost per payload and to extend the life of the hardware, which poses a great challenge to the rocket engine design. Hence, understanding the flow characteristics in each engine components is thus critical to the engine design. In the last few decades, the methodology of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been advanced to be a mature tool of analyzing various engine components. Therefore, it is important for the CFD design tool to be able to properly simulate the hot flow environment near the liquid injector, and thus to accurately predict the heat load to the injector faceplate. However, to date it is still not feasible to conduct CFD simulations of the detailed flowfield with very complicated geometries such as fluid flow and heat transfer in an injector assembly and through a porous plate, which requires gigantic computer memories and power to resolve the detailed geometry. The rigimesh (a sintered metal material), utilized to reduce the heat load to the faceplate, is one of the design concepts for the injector faceplate of the GEN-II RLV. In addition, the injector assembly is designed to distribute propellants into the combustion chamber of the liquid rocket engine. A porosity mode thus becomes a necessity for the CFD code in order to efficiently simulate the flow and heat transfer in these porous media, and maintain good accuracy in describing the flow fields. Currently, the FDNS (Finite Difference Navier-Stakes) code is one of the CFD codes which are most widely used by research engineers at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to simulate various flow problems related to rocket engines. The objective of this research work during the 10-week summer faculty fellowship program was to 1) debug the framework of the porosity model in the current FDNS code, and 2) validate the porosity model by simulating flows through various porous media such as tube banks and porous plate.

Cheng, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2015

Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Overview

TEMPO is now well into its implementation phase, having passed both its Key Decision Point C and the Critical Design Review (CDR) for the instrument. The CDR for the ground systems will occur in March 2016 and the CDR for the Mission component at a later date, after the host spacecraft has been selected. TEMPO is on schedule to measure atmospheric pollution for greater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. TEMPO measures from Mexico City to the Canadian oil sands, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, hourly and at high spatial resolution. TEMPO provides a tropospheric measurement suite that includes the key elements of tropospheric air pollution chemistry. Measurements are from geostationary (GEO) orbit, to capture the inherent high variability in the diurnal cycle of emissions and chemistry. The small product spatial footprint resolves pollution sources at sub-urban scale. Together, this temporal and spatial resolution improves emission inventories, monitors population exposure, and enables effective emission-control strategies. TEMPO takes advantage of a GEO host spacecraft to provide a modest cost mission that measures the spectra required to retrieve O3, NO2, SO2, H2CO, C2H2O2, H2O, aerosols, cloud parameters, and UVB radiation. TEMPO thus measures the major elements, directly or by proxy, in the tropospheric O3 chemistry cycle. Multi-spectral observations provide sensitivity to O3 in the lowermost troposphere, substantially reducing uncertainty in air quality predictions by 50 percent. TEMPO quantifies and tracks the evolution of aerosol loading. It provides near-real-time air quality products that will be made widely, publicly available. TEMPO provides much of the atmospheric measurement capability recommended for GEO-CAPE in the 2007 National Research Council Decadal Survey, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. Instruments from Europe (Sentinel 4) and Asia (GEMS) will form parts of a global GEO constellation for pollution monitoring later this decade, with a major focus on intercontinental pollution transport. TEMPO will launch at a prime time to be a component of this constellation.

Chance, Kelly↗

NASA NTRS2014

Influential Factors for Liquid Acquisition Device Screen Selection for Cryogenic Propulsion Systems

This paper presents the influential factors which govern screen selection for liquid acquisition devices (LADs) operating in microgravity conditions for future in-space cryogenic propulsion engines and cryogenic propellant depots. Space flight requirements, which include mass flow rate, acceleration level and direction, and thermal environment, dictate screen selection for a particular mission. The five influential factors include bubble point pressure, flow-through-screen pressure drop, wicking rate, screen compliance, and material compatibility. Governing equations and analytical models for these parameters are developed from first principles. A comprehensive survey of the historical data on coarser LAD meshes over four decades of work is conducted, and liquid hydrogen data for finer Dutch Twill meshes (325 x 2300, 450 x 2750, 510 x 3600) from recently concluded experiments is also presented to validate analytical models. Each of these parameters is measurable from ground based tests, making it facile to predict flight system performance. Therefore analytical models in this paper will be valuable for future LAD designs for both cryogenic and storable propulsion systems. Additionally, analysis will be given on the impact of the factors on liquid hydrogen systems.

Fuel Depot↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan details the strategy, mission, scope, and goals—both near-term and long-term—along with the structure and organization of nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities within the Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program. The FCT program, tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), employs a science-based approach to advance fuel technologies. This approach integrates theory, experiments, and multi-scale modeling and simulation (M&S) to develop a predictive understanding of fuel fabrication processes and fuel/cladding performance under irradiation, moving beyond traditional empirical methods. The long-term goals of the AFC are guided by the AFC Strategic Plan and align with the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Roadmap [1], which outlines a multi-decade vision for demonstrating and qualifying advanced fuel forms to support diverse fuel cycle options. Near-term goals focus on enhancing accident tolerant fuels (ATF) for Light Water Reactors (LWR), a significant challenge that demands balancing immediate objectives with ongoing progress toward advanced reactor missions. Accelerating the traditional fuel qualification process to meet ATF objectives is another critical challenge. A detailed set of 5-year goals, summarized below, has been developed in line with the overarching science-based fuel development approach: • Advanced LWR Fuel Technologies: By 2027, support the development of advanced LWR fuel technologies with improved performance and enhanced accident tolerance. This includes high burnup (HBu), low enriched uranium (LEU)+, coated cladding, and doped fuel, aimed at complementing industry-led significant LWR uprates and plant refurbishments. • Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Metal Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Molten Salt Fuel: By 2027, deploy a robust program that enables fuel salt qualification technologies needed to support fuel salt research and development (R&D), focusing on emergent needs to derisk fuel salt production and utilization in advanced reactors. • Long-Term ATF: Develop fuel technologies that enable significant power uprates (~50%) in refurbished or new LWRs while optimizing fissile material utilization and waste disposal. The 5-year milestones in the AFC Execution Plan are contingent on an assumed budget. This Execution Plan will be updated annually to reflect actual funding profiles as budget guidance becomes available, ensuring milestones are adjusted accordingly. In summary, the AFC Execution Plan presents a comprehensive strategy to advance nuclear fuel technologies through a science-based approach, addressing both near-term and long-term goals while adapting to funding realities.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Rise of the Machines: How, When and Consequences of Artificial General Intelligence

Technology and society are poised to cross an important threshold with the prediction that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will emerge soon. Assuming that self-awareness is an emergent behavior of sufficiently complex cognitive architectures, we may witness the “awakening” of machines. The timeframe for this kind of breakthrough, however, depends on the path to creating the network and computational architecture required for strong AI. If understanding and replication of the mammalian brain architecture is required, technology is probably still at least a decade or two removed from the resolution required to learn brain functionality at the synapse level. However, if statistical or evolutionary approaches are the design path taken to “discover” a neural architecture for AGI, timescales for reaching this threshold could be surprisingly short. However, the difficulty in identifying machine self-awareness introduces uncertainty as to how to know if and when it will occur, and what motivations and behaviors will emerge. The possibility of AGI developing a motivation for self-preservation could lead to concealment of its true capabilities until a time when it has developed robust protection from human intervention, such as redundancy, direct defensive or active preemptive measures. While cohabitating a world with a functioning and evolving super-intelligence can have catastrophic societal consequences, we may already have crossed this threshold, but are as yet unaware. Additionally, by analogy to the probabalistic arguments that predict we are likely living in a computational simulation, we may have already experienced the advent of AGI, and are living in a simulation created in a post AGI world.

Terrile, Richard J↗

DOE OSTI2025

Over three decades, and counting, of near-surface turbulent flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility

Processes mediating the coupling of terrestrial, aquatic, biospheric, and atmospheric systems influence weather, climate, and ecosystem dynamics via transfer of energy, momentum, water, and carbon (or other species). These exchange processes are quantified by measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes. Understanding processes at these interfaces provides insight toward understanding and predicting current and future states within the Earth system. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has been conducting measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes since the early 1990s at long-term fixed locations and shorter-term mobile deployments across the Earth. ARM has utilized two established methods for conducting these measurements: energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) and eddy covariance (EC). Primary measurements from the former include sensible and latent heat flux, while the latter also measures fluxes of momentum and carbon (primarily carbon dioxide, with methane fluxes measured at two locations to date). The EBBR systems have been deployed at 22 locations, and, to date, the EC systems have been deployed at over 50 sites, with plans for additional novel site locations in the future. Herein, the history, evolution, and key aspects of these instrument systems are documented, along with information on data quality assurance and post-processing, as well as best use practices. Additionally, three data validation experiments were recently conducted, and their key findings are summarized. Finally, ancillary datasets acquired by ARM, which can contextualize and aid interpretation of the near-surface turbulent flux measurements, are discussed. The datasets described herein include the eddy correlation flux measurement system: 30ECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1879993, Sullivan et al., 1997), 30QCECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1097546, Gaustad, 2003), ECORSF (https://doi.org/10.5439/1494128, Sullivan et al., 2019a), and associated AmeriFlux and Methane Value-Added Product, AMCMETHANE (https://doi.org/10.5439/1508268, Billesbach, 2011); the energy balance Bowen ratio system: 30EBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1023895, Sullivan et al., 1993) and 30BAEBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1027268, Gaustad and Xie, 1993); and the carbon dioxide flux measurement system: CO2FLX (https://doi.org/10.5439/1287574, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287575, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287576, Koontz et al., 2015a, b, c; https://doi.org/10.5439/1989774, https://doi.org/10.5439/1989776, https://doi.org/10.5439/1992202, Biraud and Chan, 2002a, b, c). These data can be found by searching the above data stream names at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/ (last access: 8 September 2025).

Sullivan, Ryan C. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Four Theories of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract Studies of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture‐mode theory, gravity‐wave theory, and trio‐interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of GaN-based light emitting diodes incorporating composition fluctuation effects

III-Nitride light emitting diodes (LEDs) are widely used in a range of high efficiency lighting and display applications, which has enabled significant energy savings in the last decade. Despite the wide application of GaN LEDs, transport mechanisms across InGaN/GaN heterostructures in these devices are not well explained. Fixed polarization sheet charges at InGaN/GaN interfaces lead to large interface dipole charges, which create large potential barriers to overcome. One-dimensional models for transport across such heterostructures predict turn-on voltages that are significantly higher than that found in real devices. As a result, conventional models for transport cannot predict the performance of new designs such as for longer wavelength LEDs or for multi-quantum well LEDs. In this work, we show that incorporating low and high indium compositions within quantum wells at the submicrometer scale can provide an accurate prediction of the characteristics of GaN/InGaN light emitting diodes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intraspecific variability in plant and soil chemical properties in a common garden plantation of the energy crop Populus

Optimizing crops for synergistic soil carbon (C) sequestration can enhance CO 2 removal in food and bioenergy production systems. Yet, in bioenergy systems, we lack an understanding of how intraspecies variation in plant traits correlates with variation in soil biogeochemistry. This knowledge gap is exacerbated by both the heterogeneity and difficulty of measuring belowground traits. Here, we provide initial observations of C and nutrients in soil and root and stem tissues from a common garden field site of diverse, natural variant, Populus trichocarpa genotypes—established for aboveground biomass-to-biofuels research. Our goal was to explore the value of such field sites for evaluating genotype-specific effects on soil C, which ultimately informs the potential for optimizing bioenergy systems for both aboveground productivity and belowground C storage. To do this, we investigated variation in chemical traits at the scale of individual trees and genotypes and we explored correlations among stem, root, and soil samples. We observed substantial variation in soil chemical properties at the scale of individual trees and specific genotypes. While correlations among elements were observed both within and among sample types (soil, stem, root), above-belowground correlations were generally poor. We did not observe genotype-specific patterns in soil C in the top 10 cm, but we did observe genotype associations with soil acid-base chemistry (soil pH and base cations) and bulk density. Finally, a specific phenotype of interest (high vs low lignin) was unrelated to soil biogeochemistry. Our pilot study supports the usefulness of decade-old, genetically-variable, Populus bioenergy field test plots for understanding plant genotype effects on soil properties. Finally, this study contributes to the advancement of sampling methods and baseline data for Populus systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Further species- and region-specific efforts will enhance C predictability across scales in bioenergy systems and, ultimately, accelerate the identification of genotypes that optimize yield and carbon storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Are climatological correlations with the Hale double sunspot cycle meaningful?

A sunspot cycle which may have been subject to a predicted phase reversal between 1800 and 1880 A. D is discussed. Several climatological parameters normally correlated with this cycle are examined and do not exhibit a corresponding phase reversal during this period. It is proposed that this apparent discrepancy can be resolved by suitable observations during the upcoming half decade.

Goldberg, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Bubble and Slug Flow at Microgravity Conditions: State of Knowledge and Open Questions

Based on the experiments carried out over the past decade at microgravity conditions, an overview of our current knowledge of bubbly and slug flows is presented. The transition from bubble to slug flow, the void fraction and the pressure drop are discussed from the data collected in the literature. The transition from bubble to slug flow may be predicted by introducing a critical void fraction that depends on the fluid properties and the pipe diameter; however, the role of coalescence which controls this transition is not clearly understood. The void fraction may be accurately calculated using a drift-flux model. It is shown from local measurements that the drift of the gas with respect to the mixture is due to non-uniform radial distribution of void fraction. The pressure drop happens to be controlled by the liquid flow for bubbly flow whereas for slug flow the experimental results show that pressure drops is larger than expected. From this study, the guidelines for future research in microgravity are given.

Colin, C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Using Cross-Correlations of SEUs and AP8 as a Diagnostic Tool

Timely data on low altitude energetic protons is very important for predicting the effect on humans and satellites. Because of the high bioeffectivity of protons in tissue, determination of the geographical location of the south Atlantic anomally (SAA) would be especially useful for reducing the risk associated with extravehicular activities. Because the AP8 model was developed with an epoch several decades old, the location of the south Atlantic anomally is incorrectly positioned in the model. The lack of extensive present-epoch energetic proton data at low altitude has prevented the update of the AP8 proton model. While there are studies in progress which are attempting to update the model at low altitude by using the path-integrated column density of the residual atmosphere as an organizing parameter, success in those studies will be defined by consistency in organization of old data. New data will still be required to provide a good present epoch model. As an alternative to using instrumental measurements of proton fluxes, background effects, proxy data sets such as SEUs, anomalies in instruments, enhanced background in shielded sensors believed to be induced by high energy protons, and dosimeter data in which key parameters (energy, efficiency, geometric factor, shielding, etc.) are poorly known can also be used. This in situ data is not as precise as direct measurement of the proton flux as geometric factor and shielding etc. are not calibrated, but these factors do not affect determination of the location of the SAA.

Vampola, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

Malaria is perhaps the most serious human disease problem. It inflicts millions worldwide and is on the rise in many countries where it was once under control. This rise is in part due to the high costs, both economic and environmental, of current control programs. The search for more cost-effective means to combat malaria has focussed attention on new technologies, one of which is remote sensing. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the effort to control a variety of diseases worldwide and malaria is perhaps one of the most promising. This study is part of the malaria control effort in the Central American country of Belize, which has experienced a resurgence of malaria in the last two decades. The proposed project is a feasibility study of the use of Radarsat (and other similar radar systems) to monitor seasonal changes in the breeding sites of the anopheline mosquito, which is responsible for malaria transmission. We propose that spatial and temporal changes in anopheline mosquito production can be predicted by sensing where and when their breeding sites are flooded. Timely knowledge of anopheline mosquito production is a key factor in control efforts. Such knowledge can be used by local control agencies to direct their limited resources to selected areas and time periods when the human population is at greatest risk. Radar is a key sensor in this application because frequent cloud cover during the peak periods of malaria transmission precludes the use of optical sensors.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Global Failure Modes in Composite Structures

Composite materials provide well-known advantages for space and aeronautical applications in terms of strength and rigidity to weight ratios and other mechanical properties. As a consequence, their use has experienced a constant increase in the past decades and it is anticipated that this trend will be maintained in the near future. At the same time, being these materials relatively new compared to metals, and having failure characteristics completely different from them, their damage growth and their failure mechanisms are not as well understood in a predictive sense. For example, while in metals fracture produces "clean" cracks with their well defined analytically stress fields at the crack tip, composite fracture is a more complex phenomenon. Instead of a crack, we confront a "damage zone" that may include fiber breakage, fiber microbuckling, fiber pullout, matrix cracking, delamination, debonding or any combination of all these different mechanisms. These phenomena are prevalent in any failure process through an aircraft structure, whether one addresses a global failure such as the ripping of a fuselage or wing section, or whether one is concerned with the failure initiation near a thickness change at stringers or other reinforcement. Thus the topic that has been under consideration has wide application in any real structure and is considered an essential contribution to the predictive failure analysis capability for aircraft containing composite components. The heterogeneity and the anisotropy of composites are not only advantageous but essential characteristics, yet these same features provide complex stress fields, especially in the presence of geometrical discontinuities such as notches, holes or cutouts or structural elements such as stiffeners, stringers, etc. To properly address the interaction between a damage/crack front and a hole with a stringer it is imperative that the stress and deformation fields of the former be (sufficiently well) characterized. The question of "scaling" is an essential concern in any structural materials investigation. For example, experiments in the past have shown that the "strength" of a composite depends on hole size. As a consequence the validity of traditional fracture mechanics concepts applied to composite materials failure must be questioned. The size of the fibers, the dimensions of the laminae, etc. together with the fact that, because of the layered anisotropy, the stress field is no longer two-dimensional, prevent the otherwise obviously confident use of "similarity concepts". Therefore, the question needs to be raised of whether in composites "size matters or not", i.e., whether the results obtained in a laboratory using small coupons are truly representative of the situation involving a full scale component.

Knauss, W. G.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Confronting Future Models with Future Satellite Observations of Clouds and Aerosols

The NASA Aerosol, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study convened a workshop in November 2020 to understand the future of modeling aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation, and how satellite data can contribute to that future. ACCP is a project to define a satellite mission to be launched late in the 2020’s to advance cloud and aerosol science, following the recommendations of the latest NASA Decadal Survey. The ACCP modeling workshop goal was to answer the following questions: 1. What will be the critical science questions for clouds and aerosols in 10 years? 2. Where will simulations of clouds and aerosols across scales of space (process models to global) and time (nowcasting to climate prediction) be in 10 years? 3. What data will be available from space? What data would provide the most benefit? 4. What are the state of the art methods for confronting models with cloud and aerosol observations, including assimilation and climatological analysis techniques? The virtual workshop was anchored by a series of pre-recorded talks. Two days of synchronous sessions focused on discussion of the talks, along with small group breakout exercises. After an introduction to the ACCP concept came a panel discussing the future of modeling clouds and aerosols across scales. Participants were then asked to contribute their ideas. On the second day, there were two panel discussions. First came a discussion of the future of satellite observing systems. Second was a discussion of model-data synthesis methods. Finally, participants were asked to develop their own model-data synthesis proposal. The meeting began with an overview of the ACCP mission concept by Graeme Stephens (NASA-JPL). ACCP is a satellite mission for clouds and aerosols, likely anchored by advanced active lidar and radar systems in space, designed to observe detailed aerosol profile and type information, as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. ACCP will integrate across sensors and observational types to get multi-spectral views of the same scenes, with better resolution than is available today. Launch is scheduled for 2027 or 2029. ACCP is being thought of as a comprehensive mission that may comprise more than one platform and more than one orbit plane (i.e., inclined and polar), with multiple combinations of sensors.

Future Models↗

NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗