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DOE OSTI2024

Weak Gravitational Lensing around Low Surface Brightness Galaxies in the DES Year 3 Data

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements using a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) drawn from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data as lenses. LSBGs are diffuse galaxies with a surface brightness dimmer than the ambient night sky. These dark-matter-dominated objects are intriguing due to potentially unusual formation channels that lead to their diffuse stellar component. Given the faintness of LSBGs, using standard observational techniques to characterize their total masses proves challenging. Weak gravitational lensing, which is less sensitive to the stellar component of galaxies, could be a promising avenue to estimate the masses of LSBGs. Our LSBG sample consists of 23,790 galaxies separated into red and blue color types at g - i ≥ 0.60 and g - i < 0.60 , respectively. Combined with the DES Y3 shear catalog, we measure the tangential shear around these LSBGs and find signal-to-noise ratios of 6.67 for the red sample, 2.17 for the blue sample, and 5.30 for the full sample. We use the clustering redshifts method to obtain redshift distributions for the red and blue LSBG samples. Assuming all red LSBGs are satellites, we fit a simple model to the measurements and estimate the host halo mass of these LSBGs to be log(M host /M ⊙ ) = $12.98^{+0.10}_{-0.11}$. We place a 95% upper bound on the subhalo mass at log(M sub /M ⊙ ) < 11.51. By contrast, we assume the blue LSBGs are centrals, and place a 95% upper bound on the halo mass at log(M host /M ⊙ ) < 11.84. We find that the stellar-to-halo mass ratio of the LSBG samples is consistent with that of the general galaxy population. This work illustrates the viability of using weak gravitational lensing to constrain the halo masses of LSBGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

All-sky Faint DA White Dwarf Spectrophotometric Standards for Astrophysical Observatories: The Complete Sample

Hot DA white dwarfs (DAWDs) have fully radiative pure hydrogen atmospheres that are the least complicated to model. Pulsationally stable, they are fully characterized by their effective temperature T eff and surface gravity log g, which can be deduced from their optical spectra and used in model atmospheres to predict their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Based on this, three bright DAWDs have defined the spectrophotometric flux scale of the CALSPEC system of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this paper we add 32 new fainter (16.5 < V < 19.5) DAWDs spread over the whole sky and within the dynamic range of large telescopes. Using ground-based spectra and panchromatic photometry with HST/WFC3, a new hierarchical analysis process demonstrates consistency between model and observed fluxes above the terrestrial atmosphere to <0.004 mag rms from 2700 to 7750 Å and to 0.008 mag rms at 1.6 μm for the total set of 35 DAWDs. These DAWDs are thus established as spectrophotometric standards with unprecedented accuracy from the near-ultraviolet to the near infrared, suitable for both ground- and space-based observatories. They are embedded in existing surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS, and Gaia, and will be naturally included in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope survey by the Rubin Observatory. With additional data and analysis to extend the validity of their SEDs further into the infrared, these spectrophotometric standard stars could be used for JWST, as well as for the Roman and Euclid observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Galaxy–halo size relation from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and the ELUCID simulation

ABSTRACT Based on galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and dark matter haloes in the dark matter only, cosmological, and constrained ELUCID simulation, we investigate the relation between the observed radii of central galaxies with stellar mass $\gtrsim\!{10}^{8} \, h^{-2}\, {\rm M}_\odot$ and the virial radii of their host dark matter haloes with virial mass $\gtrsim\!{10}^{10.5} \, h^{-1}\, {\rm M}_\odot$, and the dependence of galaxy–halo size relation on the halo spin and concentration. Galaxies in observation are matched to dark matter (sub)haloes in the ELUCID simulation using a novel neighbourhood subhalo abundance matching method. For galaxy two-dimensional (2D) half-light radii R50, we find that early- and late-type galaxies have the same power-law index 0.55 with $R_{50} \propto R_{\rm vir}^{0.55}$, although early-type galaxies have smaller 2D half-light radii than late-type galaxies at fixed halo virial radii. When converting the 2D half-light radii R50 to 3D half-mass radii r1/2, both early- and late-type galaxies display similar galaxy–halo size relations with $\log r_{1/2} = 0.55 \log (R_{\rm vir}/210 \, h^{-1}\, {\rm kpc}) + 0.39$. We find that the galaxy–halo size ratio r1/2/Rvir decreases with increasing halo mass. At fixed halo mass, there is no significant dependence of galaxy–halo size ratio on the halo spin or concentration.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the uppermost 100 m structure of the San Jacinto fault zone southeast of Anza, California, through joint analysis of geological, topographic, seismic and resistivity data

We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (<100 m) fault zone at this structurally complex site. Geological mapping at the surface shows the CF has three main subparallel strands within a <100 m zone with varying degrees of rock damage. These strands intersect units of banded gneiss and tonalite, and various sedimentary units. Near the surface, the weathered but more intact tonalite and gneiss to the southwest have relatively high VP. The low-lying flat sedimentary basins around the two southwestern-most CF strands and elevated damaged gneiss to the northeast have lowest VP <500 m s–1. The high relief of the northeast gneiss unit may in part be explained by its extensive damage and inferred increased relative rock uplift. Resistivity imaging shows the unconsolidated dry basin sediments (maximum >1300 Ohm.m) contrasted against the compacted fine-grained (potentially wet) materials within the CF core and the Bautista Formation (minimum <40 Ohm.m), which is slightly elevated above the flat basins. The inverse relationship between VP (increases) and resistivity (decreases) in the uppermost ~15 m can be characterized as log–log linear with slopes of –2.6 to –4. At depths >30 m, the velocity heterogeneity near the surface merges into larger-scale structures that are generally slower on the northeast side of the CF core compared to the southwest side (as much as ~40 per cent reduction in average VP). A previous study revealed a 20–37 per cent variability in peak ground velocities across the SGB site from local earthquakes. The upper end of that range is associated with the near-surface unconsolidated sedimentary basins and northeast damaged gneiss unit. Preliminary analysis of time-dependent topography mostly shows effects of changing vegetation and anthropogenic activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗

DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Optical identification and properties of galaxy clusters and groups in the western galactic hemisphere

The first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey (eRASS1) provides the largest intracluster medium-selected galaxy cluster and group catalog covering the western Galactic hemisphere. Compared to samples selected purely on X-ray extent, the sample purity can be enhanced by identifying cluster candidates using optical and near-infrared data from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. Using the red-sequence-based cluster findereROMaPPer, we measured individual photometric properties (redshiftz λ , richnessλ, optical center, and BCG position) for 12000 eRASS1 clusters over a sky area of 13 116 deg 2 , augmented by 247 cases identified by matching the candidates with known clusters from the literature. The median redshift of the identified eRASS1 sample isz= 0.31, with 10% of the clusters atz> 0.72. The photometric redshifts have an accuracy ofδz/(1 +z) ≲ 0.005 for 0.05 specand velocity dispersionσ) were measured a posteriori for a subsample of 3210 and 1499 eRASS1 clusters, respectively, using an extensive compilation of spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies from the literature. We infer that the primary eRASS1 sample has a purity of 86% and optical completeness >95% forz> 0.05. For these and further quality assessments of the eRASS1 identified catalog, we applied our identification method to a collection of galaxy cluster catalogs in the literature, as well as blindly on the full Legacy Surveys covering 24069 deg 2 . Using a combination of these cluster samples, we investigated the velocity dispersion-richness relation, finding that it scales with richness as log(λ norm ) = 2.401 × log(σ) − 5.074 with an intrinsic scatter ofδ in = 0.10 ± 0.01 dex. The primary product of our work is the identified eRASS1 cluster catalog with high purity and a well-defined X-ray selection process, opening the path for precise cosmological analyses presented in companion papers.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical investigations to identify environmental factors for field-scale reactive transport of pathogens at riverbank filtration sites

While induced bank filtration is a proven method for facilitating sustainable drinking water production, it is at risk from surface water contaminations (e.g., pathogens). Induced bank filtration and pathogen transport in groundwater have been studied extensively. However, long-term studies that consider real-world conditions are missing. These conditions include seasonal changes to environmental conditions and waterworks operations. Therefore, to analyze the effect of seasonal changes on the transport of human pathogenic viruses and their indicators in induced bank filtration, concentrations of adenoviruses and pathogen indicators were monitored over 16 months at an active bank filtration plant at the Rhine River, in Düsseldorf (Germany). Based on this data, a 2D groundwater model was created in PFLOTRAN that simulated flow, heat transport, conservative transport of chloride and the resulting electrical conductivity, reactive transport of oxygen and nitrate, and colloid-based transport of coliforms, somatic coliphages, and adenoviruses. The results show that reduced travel time was the key factor determining periods with a low removal of coliforms and somatic coliphages in the aquifer. Travel time was controlled by river level variations during rainy seasons, and the waterworks extraction rates during dry seasons. Further, for adenovirus transport, travel distance in the subsurface appeared to be the key factor, while travel time had no significant impact. Coliform removal increased when the colmation layer permeability decreased, while coliphage and adenovirus removal was unaffected by the colmation layer permeability. Seasonal changes in temperature and oxygen content did not significantly impact the removal of coliphages and adenoviruses in groundwater. Denitrifying conditions correlated with a lowered coliform removal, but the modelling could not establish a connection between denitrifying conditions and coliform removal. Our study showed that removal of pathogens and pathogen indicators at induced bank filtration plants varies greatly in time and space (e.g., for coliforms from 1 to 4 log-levels at 20m travel distance), and that adenovirus transport differs considerably from transport of coliforms and somatic coliphages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Sizes of z ∼ 9−10 Galaxies Identified in the Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) Survey

Redshift z = 9–10 object selection is the effective limit of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging capability, even when confirmed with Spitzer. If only a few photometry data points are available, it becomes attractive to add criteria based on their morphology in these J- and H-band images. One could do so through visual inspection, a size criterion, or alternate morphometrics. We explore a vetted sample of Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) z ∼ 9 and z ∼ 10 candidate galaxies and the object rejected by Morishita+ to explore the utility of a size criterion in z = 9–10 candidate selection. A stringent, point-spread function (PSF)-corrected effective radius criterion ([[Formula]]) would result in the rejection of 65%–70% of the interlopers visually rejected by Morishita et al. It may also remove up to ∼20% of bona fide brightest (L≫L{sup ∗}) z = 9 or 10 candidates from a BoRG selected sample based on the Mason et al. luminosity functions, assuming the Holwerda et al. z∼9 size–luminosity relation. We argue that including a size constraint in lieu of a visual inspection may serve in wide-field searches for these objects in, e.g., Euclid or HST archival imaging with the understanding that some brightest (L≫L{sup ∗}) candidates may be missed. The sizes of the candidates found by Morishita et al. follow the expected size distribution of z ∼ 9 for bright galaxies, consistent with the log normal in Shibuya et al. and single objects. Two candidates show high star formation surface density (Σ{sub SFR}>25M{sub ⊙} kpc{sup −2}) and all merit further investigation and follow-up observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gulf of Mexico Miocene CO2 Site Characterization Mega Transect

The project Gulf of Mexico Miocene CO2 Site Characterization Mega Transect is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The University of Texas at Austin study focused on (1) collecting high-resolution, 3-D (HR3D) seismic datasets of the shallow geologic section to evaluate the capacity of potential reservoirs and the sealing capacity of the confining system, and (2) producing a regional CO2 atlas of Miocene age units of the upper Texas coast submerged lands (southeast Texas). The goal of the study was to evaluate the capability of the Miocene age geologic section of Texas submerged lands to permanently store large volumes of anthropogenic CO2. The geographic locations of three HR3D, “P-Cable” seismic surveys collected in the near-shore waters of southeast Texas offers a vertical and horizontal view (data “cube”) example from the second survey. The dataset's high quality allowed for defining recognizable geologic morphologies (shapes) and possible fluid content, which are important for determining an area’s prospects for geologic storage. The regional CO2 atlas of Miocene age units highlights several topics, including: (1) a regional analyses of petroleum systems as analogs for CO2 storage; (2) petrography, petrology, and extent of confining systems of the Miocene section; (3) static capacity estimate; and (4) examples of characterization methodologies of prospect areas. The HR3D datasets and regional analyses within the CO2 atlas of the offshore Texas Miocene provide a sound basis for a future generation of specific CO2 prospects in the study area.

.las↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Exact Algorithm for the Linear Tape Scheduling Problem

Magnetic tapes are often considered as an outdated storage technology, yet they are still used to store huge amounts of data. Their main interests are a large capacity and a low price per gigabyte, which come at the cost of a much larger file access time than on disks. With tapes, finding the right ordering of multiple file accesses is thus key to performance. Moving the reading head back and forth along a kilometer long tape has a non-negligible cost and unnecessary movements thus have to be avoided. However, the optimization of tape request ordering has rarely been studied in the scheduling literature, much less than I/O scheduling on disks. For instance, minimizing the average service time for several read requests on a linear tape remains an open question. Therefore, in this paper, we aim at improving the quality of service experienced by users of tape storage systems, and not only the peak performance of such systems. To this end, we propose a reasonable polynomial-time exact algorithm while this problem and simpler variants have been conjectured NP-hard. We also refine the proposed model by considering U-turn penalty costs accounting for inherent mechanical accelerations. Then, we propose a low-cost variant of our optimal algorithm by restricting the solution space, yet still yielding an accurate suboptimal solution. Finally, we compare our algorithms to existing solutions from the literature on logs of the mass storage management system of a major datacenter. This allows us to assess the quality of previous solutions and the improvement achieved by our low-cost algorithm. Aiming for reproducibility, we make available the complete implementation of the algorithms used in our evaluation, alongside the dataset of tape requests that is, to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind to be publicly released.

Honoré, Valentin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal spectral resolution for solids and liquids using FT and other infrared spectrometers: How much resolution do you really need?

In this study we investigate the possibility of using spectral resolutions for infrared measurements of solids and liquids that are not powers of two, e.g. are not at 1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 cm-1 resolution. In almost all reported literature of the last fifty years the resolution used to record for a Fourier transform infrared spectrum has been a power of two. This stems from the fact that 1) the Cooley-Tukey algorithm used to compute such a transform was constructed to use only powers of two and was also driven by 2) the fact that the computing horsepower required to compute the Fourier transform increases as N?log?_2 (N), where N is the number of points in the interferogram (spectrum). For typical spectra, however, the CPU time is no longer a consideration. Our study is based on both liquid and solid spectra, all of which were recorded at 2 cm-1 resolution. There were at total of 70 solids spectra representing 2,472 spectral peaks and 61 liquids spectra (1,765 spectral peaks), each peak being inspected for being singlet / multiplet in nature. Of the 1,765 liquid bands examined, only 27 had widths less than 5 cm-1. Of the 2,472 solid bands examined, only 39 peaks have widths less than 5 cm-1. For liquids, the mean peak width is 24.7 cm-1 but the median peak width is 13.7 cm-1, and, similarly, for solids, the mean peak width is 22.2 cm-1 but the median peak width is 11.2 cm-1. In both cases, solids and liquids, a skewed peak widths distribution was observed, the peak of the distribution representing narrower bands in the 7 to 9 cm-1 FWHM range but displaying a long tail to the very broad bands, with some displaying spectral widths of 100 cm-1 or more. Because one of the most important criteria for successful instrumental design in IR spectroscopy is the spectral resolution, the data were further analyzed showing that a value to resolve 95% of all bands is 5.7 cm-1 for liquids and 5.3 cm-1 for solids; such a resolution would capture the native linewidth (no instrumental broadening) of 95% of all the solids and liquid bands, respectively. Based on the present results we suggest that, when accounting only for intrinsic linewidths an optimized resolution of 6.0 cm-1 will capture 91% of all condensed-phase bands for IR detection of chemical, mineral, and biological materials.

Forland, Brenda M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

HFTS-1 (Final Report)

Despite the long history of hydraulic fracturing, the optimal number of fracturing stages during multi-stage fracture stimulation in horizontal wells can be a complex subject. In addition to the increased expense of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells, increasing the number of fracturing stages does not always correlate with a commensurate increase in production. The problem is the application of a uniform fracture stimulation design to all stages with no consideration for geological variations along the wellbore. The result is an inefficient use and costly waste of energy and water. Optimization of the fracturing process requires an understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship between fracturing parameters and local geological properties at a given location along the wellbore. Realizing that the generalized rock mechanics theories and hypotheses are not truly applicable to fractured and laminated shales, quantifiable impacts of a shale’s geomechanical and depositional features are a prerequisite for design and implementation of optimized hydraulic fractures. The overarching goal of this project is to understand and define the relationships of shale geology and fracture dynamics using detailed field data that includes coring of the fracture domain. Finally, resource recovery from shale formations is estimated to be less than fifteen percent. Research proposed in this project will establish the foundations for investigating enhanced recovery techniques for increased resource recovery in existing fracture treated wells. Natural gas as an EOR fluid is in the initial stages of being used broadly in the oil and gas industry and as such, many aspects of the process need to be researched and addressed prior to widespread acceptance. In addition, re-fracturing techniques, particularly using cemented liners also need to be further investigated. This project explores several of these EOR techniques in greater detail, not just at the theoretical level, but through actual field test sites. This report delves into the research program, identified tasks, several studies, observations, results, and conclusions under the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) project. This test project is subdivided into three distinct phases and each phase is discussed in detail under separate sections. The original test site for Phase 1 as well as the Phase 2 site are in Midland Basin in Texas and operated by Laredo Petroleum. In the first two phases, the program targeted the Wolfcamp formation in Midland Basin. Phase 3 of the study targeted the EagleFord play in South Texas with Devon Energy as the operator. Significant conclusions from this study include: 1) lateral and vertical fracture growth mapping as well as proppant transport behavior, 2) Use of field gas and its applicability for huff n puff EOR injection in the Midland Basin, 3) Development and validation of proppant log, both at core scale as well as in-fill well implementation by analyzing drilling mud return samples, 4) Applicability of liner refracturing including best practices for enhanced unit level productivity. This report will detail all these studies as well as technical results and conclusions from said studies. These include general subsurface characterization work, completion designs as implemented, studies looking at fracture geometry, high resolution microseismic study, advanced crosswell strain mapping studies including drainage characterization, core characterization results, proppant analysis (core and observation wells), geochemistry, etc. to name a few.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

All-digital Sensor System for Distributed Downhole Pressure Monitoring in Unconventional Fields

This project developed and validated (through field tests) a new low-cost all-digital pressure sensing technology for in situ distributed downhole pressure monitoring in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) fields. The all-digital sensing technology uses a built-in non-electric analog-to-digital converter (ADC) to transform the pressure information into a combination of binary (ON/OFF) states. As such, the system does not need downhole electronics for signal conditioning and telemetry. The all-digital sensors can be remotely logged over a long distance, and many sensors can be multiplexed for distributed sensing. Based on a review of unconventional wells in the Lower 48 states, the specification of the sensor is to measure pressure up to 69 MPa (10,000 psi) and temperature up to 250°C. A sensor with a helical bourdon sensing element and a digital signal decoder of 50 mm diameter and 109 mm length was constructed. The helical bourdon sensing element was made of 304L stainless steel and filled with motor oil. The digital converter was made up of 8 digital reading pads constructed of high-temperature epoxy with conductive inserts made of stainless steel. The sensor had a linear response to pressure with an accuracy of 0.14 MPa (20 psi). To withstand the high pressure, the sensor was enclosed in a stainless-steel pressure housing with a wall thickness of 5.5 mm, a diameter of 73 mm, and a length of 724 mm. In the laboratory tests, the sensor exhibited no temperature-related effects on the results. The sensor did not show drift over a 14-day test period at elevated pressure. A field test was conducted where the sensor was deployed in a test wellbore at the Quest drilling test facility to a depth of 0 feet over three weeks. The sensor was attached to the production rods, along with a downhole reference sensor of PPS27 type, which is a permanent downhole monitoring system. During the testing phase, the test well annular blow-out preventer was closed, and the well was pressurized at the surface to 11 MPa (1600 psi). The sensor read the elevated bottom hole pressure of 1500 psi. A multiplexing unit was created for the sensor to deploy multiple sensors on one data transmission line in a distributed approach. The multiplexing unit was tested in a simulated environment of 3048 m (10,000 ft) with five sensors distributed. The sensors were pressurized at different intervals. The multiplexed sensors recorded the correct pressure, and the multiplexing did not interfere with the readings. The proposed concept of an all-digital pressure sensor for harsh downhole environments was designed, manufactured, and tested in the laboratory and tested at the field to a up to 69 MPa and 250°C. This technology has high-temperature tolerance and has potential in downhole areas outside oil and gas, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and geothermal wells. The sensor concept has been proven in this project, but to create a commercially viable product, manufacturing a sensor with a smaller diameter needs to be performed.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 in the Permian Delaware Basin (HFTS-2)

Here, the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) is a large collaborative field-based R&D program in the Permian Delaware Basin, funded by the US Department of Energy through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and the E&P industry, with support from academia. The projects' main objective is to improve the understating of the hydraulic fracturing process through utilization of advanced diagnostics and collection of through-fracture cores to provide undisputable evidence and attributes of the created hydraulic fractures. At the HFTS-2, in excess of $30 million was used to perform hydraulic fracturing research focusing on the Wolfcamp formation at a field site hosted and operated by Occidental. In addition to the research data collected by the project, Occidental provided a significant amount of background data for about a dozen existing wells in the test area as well as access to previously collected core. Additional technical and laboratory support was provided by the program members. Building on learnings and unanswered questions from HFTS-1 in the Permian Midland basin, the HFTS-2 used eight new producing wells and two existing (parent) wells to perform hydraulic fracturing research. Multiple science wells were drilled to sample and characterize the subsurface, including the collection of 540 feet of core in a vertical pilot hole and 948 feet of high-angle through-fracture core. The project installed permanent fiber optic cables in 3 wells to monitor near wellbore signals during fracturing and to collect cross-well strain measurements. Additional advanced diagnostics included a significant formation evaluation program on the vertical whole core, multi array moment tensor inversion capable microseismic survey, multi-well time-lapse geochemistry analysis, analysis of proppant distribution in producing child and slant core well, and others. We will provide an overview of the HFTS-2 project, including list of the consortium members, details of the test site, experiments performed, and technologies tested.

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