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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48

Additive Manufacturing of Thermal Energy Storage Composites with Microencapsulated Phase Change Materials Supported in a Multipolymer Matrix

Additive manufacturing (AM) techniques to directly integrate phase change materials (PCMs) are of interest for efficient thermal energy storage (TES) architectures. Complex, high surface-to-volume ratio composites embedded with PCM can improve thermal management with reduced material waste for customizable device fabrication. Reducing feature sizes of TES-integrated heat exchangers using AM can increase heat transfer without thermal conductivity enhancement. Here, composite AM materials containing 60 wt% microencapsulated phase change materials (MEPCM) are fabricated using off-the-shelf printers at common speeds and resolutions. High MEPCM loading in filaments is achieved with powder extrusion using two polymers, thermoplastic-polyurethane (TPU) and polycaprolactone (PCL), that mediate flexibility and rigidity for effective extrusion and printing without filament fracture or buckling. Furthermore, with PCL and TPU at 20 wt% each and 60 wt% MEPCM (P 20 T 20 M 60 ), smooth, form-stable filaments are consistently printed. Powder-based extrusion displays negligible damaging effects on the MEPCM. Printed P 20 T 20 M 60 demonstrates 105 J/g of energy storage with no degradation through 250 thermal cycles, within 5% of the theoretical storage enthalpy. Combining PCL/TPU shows good interfacial adhesion between print layers and produces high surface area objects, like 15% gyroids, and dense, 100% infilled pucks. Prints are also scalable to a 900 cm 3 honeycomb heat exchanger with an estimated 9 Wh energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A GPU-based Approach for Path Planning Optimization via Travel Length Reduction

Typically, before constructing an object with an additive manufacturing system, the 3D object must be sent through a process called slicing. Slicing converts a 3D object commonly in the form of an STL file into a set of layers by horizontally intersecting a plane with the object at various heights. At each height, called a layer, multiple 2D polygons can be generated. Each polygon represents a boundary for solid geometry and is called an island. Each island is then comprised of multiple path types in an attempt to optimally fill the polygon. To move between each island and each islands’ paths, travels are inserted. Travels are simply motion by the system to move from one area of construction to another. Travels do not contribute to the construction of the object, and so, are considered wasted motion. In large-scale additive manufacturing, objects can be quite large and the distance between islands can be large as well. As a result, these travels can waste a significant amount of time. Ideally, travels would be as short as possible, however, computing global minimal travel paths is computationally expensive. To combat this problem, researchers at Oak Ridge National Lab developed a GPU-based approach to travel insertion based on a unique factoradic representation. This representation was then utilized by the GPU to solve the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). This algorithm was able to compute global minimal travel paths quickly resulting in faster object construction. A general investigation was also carried out to determine when a GPU vs CPU implementation would be beneficial.

Borish, Michael↗

Driving Zn-MnO2 grid-scale batteries: A roadmap to cost-effective energy storage

Highlights Zn-MnO 2 batteries promise safe, reliable energy storage, and this roadmap outlines a combination of manufacturing strategies and technical innovations that could make this goal achievable. Approaches such as improved efficiency of manufacturing and increasing active material utilization will be important to getting costs as low as $100/kWh, but key materials innovations that facilitate the full 2-electron capacity utilization of MnO 2 , the use of high energy density 3D electrodes, and the promise of a separator-free battery with greater than 2V potential offer a route to batteries at $50/kWh or less. Abstract Large-scale energy storage is certain to play a significant, enabling role in the evolution of the emerging electrical grid. Battery-based storage, while not a dominant form of storage today, has opportunity to expand its utility through safe, reliable, and cost-effective technologies. Here, secondary Zn–MnO 2 batteries are highlighted as a promising extension of ubiquitous primary alkaline batteries, offering a safe, environmentally friendly chemistry in a scalable and practical energy dense technology. Importantly, there is a very realistic pathway to also making such batteries cost-effective at price points of $50/kWh or lower. By examining manufacturing examples at the Zn–MnO 2 battery manufacturer Urban Electric Power, a roadmap has been created to realize such low-cost systems. By focusing on manufacturing optimization through reduced materials waste, scalable manufacturing, and effective materials selection, costs can be significantly reduced. Ultimately, though, coupling these approaches with emerging research and development advances to enable full capacity active materials utilization and battery voltages greater than 2V are likely needed to drive costs below a target of $50/kWh. Reaching this commercially important goal, especially with a chemistry that is safe, well-known, and reliably effective stands to inject Zn–MnO 2 batteries in the storage landscape at a critical time in energy storage development and deployment. Graphical abstract

Spoerke, Erik D. (ORCID:0000000322862560)↗

Cerium oxide impact on fresh and hardened properties of cementitious materials

Cements used in global nuclear waste treatment, storage, and disposal require thorough testing of fresh and cured properties to demonstrate regulatory compliance. Using actual radioactive wastes is often cost-prohibitive during early scoping tests necessitating the use of non-radiological surrogates. Cerium (Ce) is often used as a surrogate for actinides uranium (U) and plutonium (Pu) in spent nuclear fuel, yet few studies have explored how Ce impacts the properties used to qualify a cement for use. Here, this work compares the fresh and cured properties of three classes of cements – ordinary portland cements, ultra-high performance cement composites, and magnesium phosphate cements – each with and without ceria (CeO 2 ). Due to CeO 2 sorption of water (54 vol%) that effectively decreases the water available to hydrate and form binding cement phases, variations in key cement properties were detected that suggest surrogate CeO 2 –cementitious matrices may not be representative of matrix behaviors when using U and Pu sources.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Synthesis of Lanthanide-Based Intermetallic Silicides

Lanthanide-containing materials are of interest because of their useful magnetic and electronic behavior. To study this intrinsic behavior, researchers need high-quality single crystals to avoid interference from grain boundaries or defects commonly found in polycrystalline samples. One method for growing single crystals is metal-flux synthesis, an approach that promotes crystal growth at lower reaction temperatures thus providing access to complex intermetallic phases. My project focuses on synthesizing novel lanthanide-containing intermetallic silicides related to previously reported f-element compounds with the Gd1??Fe4Si10?? structure type. I investigated reactions targeting lanthanum, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium, europium, and gadolinium-containing products, and used scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) to identify promising lanthanide-containing phases. I prepared reactions by loading lanthanide oxides, Co, Si, Al, and Ga into alumina crucibles in a 0.2:1:1:10:10 Ln2O3/Co/Si/Al/Ga mmol ratio, where Ln = La, Nd, Pr, Sm, Eu, or Gd. The reactions were sealed in quartz tubes, heated in a furnace, and centrifuged to separate crystals from excess flux. Afterwards, I mechanically isolated single crystals and prepared them for characterization. Pr-, Nd-, and Sm-containing reactions were confirmed through SEM-EDS to have formed the targeted quaternary phase. Single crystal X-ray diffraction (SC-XRD) data showed the Nd-containing crystals exhibited a hexagonal unit cell associated with the Gd1??Fe4Si10?? structure type. La- and Eu-containing reactions instead formed competing Co(Al/Ga/Si)3 phase crystals. Single-crystal XRD, powder XRD, and magnetic susceptibility and heat-capacity measurements will be collected for the remaining lanthanide-containing crystals. This data will help determine the complete crystal structure of the lanthanide analogues, their phase purity and whether they exhibit localized magnetic behavior, magnetic ordering, or other electronic signatures that can be compared with the previously reported actinide analogues. The disordered structure of this intermetallic family is associated with unusual magnetic and electronic behavior meaning lanthanide analogues may show potential as thermoelectric materials. Developing new thermoelectric candidate materials is relevant to energy efficiency and waste-heat recovery, which supports DOE’s broader goal of advancing science and technology solutions for America’s energy needs.

37 - INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL C↗

Low-temperature upcycling of polyolefins into liquid alkanes via tandem cracking-alkylation

Selective upcycling of polyolefin waste has been hampered by the relatively high temperatures that are required to cleave the carbon-carbon (C–C) bonds at reasonably high rates. We present a distinctive approach that uses a highly ionic reaction environment to increase the polymer reactivity and lower the energy of ionic transition states. Combining endothermic cleavage of the polymer C–C bonds with exothermic alkylation reactions of the cracking products enables full conversion of polyethylene and polypropylene to liquid isoalkanes (C 6 to C 10 ) at temperatures below 100°C. Both reactions are catalyzed by a Lewis acidic species that is generated in a chloroaluminate ionic liquid. The alkylate product forms a separate phase and is easily separated from the reactant catalyst mixture. The process can convert unprocessed postconsumer items to high-quality liquid alkanes with high yields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crystallization of a Neptunyl Oxalate Hydrate from Solutions Containing Np V and the Uranyl Peroxide Nanocluster U 60 Ox 30

Uranyl peroxide nanoclusters are an evolving family of materials with potential applications throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. While several studies have investigated their interactions with alkali and alkaline earth metals, no studies have probed their interactions with the actinide elements. This work describes a system containing U 60 Ox 30 , [((UO 2 )(O 2 )) 60 (C 2 O 4 ) 30 ] 60- , and neptunium(V) as a function of neptunium concentration. Ultra-small and small angle X-ray scattering were used to observe these interactions in the aqueous phase, and X-ray diffraction was used to observe solid products. The results show that neptunium induces aggregation of U 60 Ox 30 when the neptunium concentration is ≤ 10 mM, whereas (NpO 2 ) 2 C 2 O 4 ·6H 2 O(cr) and studtite ultimately form at 15–25 mM neptunium. Finally, the latter result suggests that neptunium coordinates with the bridging oxalate ligands in U 60 Ox 30 , leaving metastable uranyl peroxide species in solution, and is an important finding given the potential application of uranyl peroxide nanoclusters in the recycling of used nuclear fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Delamination recycling of multilayer plastic films: Solvent-assisted separation pathways and recovery of solid polyolefins

Multilayer plastic films are excellent packaging materials due to the bound layers of multiple polymers, with each different polymer contributing to the film properties. Desirable properties lead to continuously growing demand for multilayer films. Multilayer plastic films are typically single-use and, as such, their increased production and disposal have led to waste management problems. Multilayer films are not currently recyclable primarily due to the multiple bound polymers. This work advances delamination as a recycling process to separate and sequester valuable polymers from multilayer films, facilitating the incorporation of these polymers into the circular economy. We effect delamination in a physical process that preserves targeted polymers as solid film, hence retaining their embodied energy. This work documents three different pathways of inducing delamination of multilayer films, with appropriate solvents disrupting adhesion between adjacent layers or dissolving a minor component of the film in less than an hour and at temperatures below 90°C, and where all initial polyethylene is maintained in its solid form throughout the process and is recovered at high purity. Solvent-based delamination is exemplified on commercial multilayer films with majority polyethylene (PE), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) or ethylene vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH) or nylon also present. Solvent-based delamination is an energy-efficient and environmentally friendly recycling process that improves upon dissolution-precipitation recycling, since delamination involves very little dissolution and no precipitation, and is superior to pyrolysis which breaks down the polymers, while delamination keeps polymer chains intact. Furthermore, delamination recycling can contribute to the sustainable use of multilayer films as they continue to protect our food and medicine.

Chemical Recycling↗

Novel anaerobic selenium oxyanion reducers native to FGD wastewater for enhanced selenium removal

Biological treatment is a recognized approach for removing selenate and selenite oxyanions present in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater. However, the knowledge of the specific microbial species or communities responsible for reducing water-soluble selenium oxyanions to insoluble elemental selenium remains limited. In addition, the selenium oxyanion reduction genes and pathways have yet to be understood in these wastewaters. This study characterizes selenium oxyanion-reducing bacteria (SeRB) native to FGD wastewater, and the resulting elemental selenium particles formed. By selecting native SeRB microbes in a defined media, a novel resolution of these organisms has been achieved. This research identifies previously unrecognized selenium oxyanion-reducing capabilities in Anaerosolibacter, alongside predominant SeRB from Mesobacillus and Tepidibacillus genera. This work encompasses both 16S and metagenomic techniques to recover novel metagenome-assembled genomes, distinct to this environment. The biogenic selenium produced by these organisms was predominantly of elemental selenium, either amorphous or with a hexagonal structure. This study identifies the SeRB present in FGD wastewater and characterizes their selenium products, offering crucial insights to enhance the efficiency of biological treatment strategies and the potential of selenium recovery from this industrial waste.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of Solids Obtained from 201O, 201P, 202A, and 202B Contactors in the Salt Waste Processing Facility

In December 2022, Savannah River Mission Completion personnel recovered solids samples from four contractors (EXT-001, EXT-007, EXT-031, and EXT-040) employed at the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). These solids were submitted to Savannah River National Laboratory for analysis and characterization. This Technical Report outlines the analytical findings and observations associated with these samples and explores the potential source of solid generation within the SWPF. The following conclusions are offered as a result of this work: the light color solids recovered from EXT-007 are consistent with crystallized, soluble salt components (such as sodium nitrate, sodium hydroxide, and sodium carbonate), all of which can be easily re-dissolved in process water and do not represent a threat to SWPF CSSX processing. While the light solids from the top of EXT-040 were not analyzed, it is believed that they share similar characteristics to those recovered from EXT-007; The dark color solids recovered from EXT-001, EXT-031, and the inside of EXT-040 appear to be complex, consisting of several different types of solids: High concentrations of mercury (Hg, 40-75% by mass) partially present as elemental Hg are consistent with the precipitation of Hg 0 /Hg 2+ from disproportionation of Hg + species in pH swing conditions; Moderate concentrations of titanium (Ti) (2-7%, by mass) are also present, often co-located with Hg. This is consistent with co-precipitation, entrainment, and/or amalgamation of Ti and Hg; Moderate concentrations of iron (Fe) (1-3%, by mass) are observed in SWPF solids and are likely attributable to erosion of stainless-steel components within the CSSX process; Small concentrations of tungsten (W) and cobalt (Co) (<1%, by mass) are observed in SWPF solids. The presence of these solids is consistent with the erosion of components coated with W and Co (e.g., Stellite); Small concentrations of aluminum (Al) (<1%, by mass) are observed in the form of gibbsite and potentially sodium aluminosilicate. The presence of these compounds is likely attributable to the pH swing observed between the scrub and extraction cycles within the CSSX process. The following recommendations are made as a result of this work: Testing should be performed to determine the chemical drivers, process, and mechanism of Hg precipitation in CSSX processing. Special care should be taken to include titanium in tests to evaluate the potential for co-precipitation, entrainment, and amalgamation; Hg-mitigation options that would minimize or eliminate risks of Hg precipitation and solids accumulation (e.g., Hg-absorption techniques, ion exchange/adsorbents, flowsheet changes, etc.) should be assessed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development of Integrated Mechanical Pods

This presentation highlights early wins, updated progress, and upcoming developments on ‘national-scale shared development platform’ for rapid prototyping, testing and validation of various integrated Mechanical Pod solutions and form factors. Such pod solutions consist of a set of all-electric heat pump mechanical equipment that have integrated functionalities through built-in controls, with heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation (including energy recovery), electrical management, and battery storage within a single package. The presentation draws inspiration from the success of bathroom pods in the US modular construction industry, UK’s efforts with unitizing mechanical systems as ‘utility cupboards’, and VEIC’s early wins in design-build of all-electric Mechanical Pod solutions in Vermont. The presentation includes researchers and partners involved with NREL in Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA), Virtual Design and Construction (VDC), and digital twin based process optimization modeling of integrated Mechanical Pod solutions. The presentation aims to highlight early wins from such a platform and how various physical and virtual tools are currently being employed as part of NREL’s ongoing multi-year project funded by US DOE. Streamlined procurement, coordination, installation, and O&M of Mechanical Pods such that the majority of work is delegated to the off-site modular factory implies monetary savings. Such a seemingly basic shift in location of the construction process leads to great reduction in complexity, first cost, lead time, and waste, and greater opportunities for innovative compartmentalization and integration of mechanical systems appropriately sized for each apartment or hotel guest room. However, past studies on unitized combination systems show that high installation costs, maintenance issues, challenges with system integration, limitations in existing electrical infrastructure, and lack of architecturally appealing solutions are key barriers. NREL and partners aim to address key barriers through DfMA approach, rapid prototyping and testing, and digital twin process optimization modeling. The presentation is also a call for interested entities to partner with NREL as part of the national-scale development platform, help drive both product and process innovation, and encourage open source sharing of learnings. Learning objectives include (1) learn about the vision of national-scale shared development platform for process-product innovation on integrated mechanical pod solutions and how to get involved, (2) gain an understanding of the components of an all-electric, high performance home, design characteristics and equipment included in an all-electric mechanical pod, integration of mechanical systems within a modular factories’ assembly line, and the system’s commissioning, operation and maintenance. The pre-planning and coordination with the factory and sub-contractors are also highlighted, (3) gain an understanding of using process modeling tools to quantify resource-constrained performance of operations (such as integration of energy efficiency strategies) to manufacture modules of varying design, (4) gain insights on virtual design, rapid prototyping, and emulated testing of various form factors across different climatic conditions. The need for such preliminary testing with open source sharing of learnings will also be highlighted.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Water Sorption/Desorption Characteristics of Eutectic LiCl-KCl Salt-Occluded Zeolites

Molten salt consisting primarily of eutectic LiCl-KCl is currently being used in electrorefiners in the Fuel Conditioning Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Options are currently being evaluated for storing this salt outside of the argon atmosphere hot cell. The hygroscopic nature of eutectic LiCl-KCl makes is susceptible to deliquescence in air followed by extreme corrosion of metallic cannisters. In this study, the effect of occluding the salt into a zeolite on water sorption/desorption was tested. Two zeolites were investigated: Na-Y and zeolite 4A. Na-Y was ineffective at occluding a high percentage of the salt at either 10 or 20wt% loading. Zeolite-4A was effective at occluding the salt with high efficiency at both loading levels. Weight gain in salt occluded zeolite-4A (SOZ) from water sorption at 20% relative humidity and 40°C was 17wt% for 10% SOZ and 10wt% for 20% SOZ. In both cases, neither deliquescence nor corrosion occurred over a period of 31 days. After hydration, most of the water could be driven off by heating the hydrated salt occluded zeolite to 530°C. However, some HCl forms during dehydration due to salt hydrolysis. Over a wide range of temperatures (320–700°C) and ramp rates (5, 10, and 20°C min -1 ), HCl formation was no more than 0.6% of the Cl - in the original salt.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

TRISO Particle Isolation and Graphite Removal Using SRNL Vapor Digestion Technology

Tri-structural isotropic fueled reactors are planned to come online in the next decade, but there is not currently a widely agreed upon disposition pathway for this new fuel stream. For long term used nuclear fuel storage, there would be a significant benefit if the waste volume could be reduced or mitigated. Most of the volume from used TRISO fuel contains graphite. SRNL currently has an active patent which describes one pathway to digest the graphite. One benefit in the utilization of this pathway is that multiple cylindrical pieces can be stacked end-to-end in a reaction tube, then nitric acid and water vapor can be flowed through the tube, and the weight change of the individual cores can provide both a reaction profile and overall oxidant use efficiency. The reaction of nitric acid and graphite passes through a series of intermediate products – NO 2 , NO, and N 2 O – from reaction and decomposition to eventually form N2. The data shows that NO2 grows in with increasing temperature between 500-600°C and then decreases by way of either reaction with graphite or decomposition. Nitric oxide, a reaction and thermal decomposition product of NO 2 , exhibits a consistent decline as a function of temperature, which is consistent with the literature. Similarly, the concentrations of N 2 O and N 2 increase as a function of temperature as their reactions with graphite become more favorable.

Advanced Reactors↗

Fundamental Studies of Tritium Formation and Diffusivity in Pure and Defective Zircaloy-4 Getters

Zirconium (Zr) and its alloys are used as fuel cladding in nuclear reactors. These materials have their low absorption cross-section for thermal neutrons and have good mechanical and thermal properties. In addition, they are used as tritium getters in tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs), in the form of nickel-plated Zircaloy-4 tubes. To produce 3 H, the breading blankets such as lithium aluminate are irradiated in pressurized water. 3 H produced in this process is captured by the getter and 3 H reacts chemically with Zr to form metal hydride (ZrTx). The precipitation of metal hydride results in not only the volume increase and hydrogen embrittlement of zircaloy but also changes in getter’s chemical properties. This degrades the getter’s performance. Therefore, understanding the behavior of 3 H (such as diffusion and solubility) in zircaloy is important to understand getter performance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Metal Items from TA 53, Set 21

EPC-ES has evaluated the survey results for metal items from the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) and found that the metal items described in Table 1 of this report (identified by RP Tracking Numbers) meet the criteria for unrestricted release under DOE Order 458.1 Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (DOE 2020) and can be recycled. This conclusion is based on the known history of the metal items and on radiation survey data (see the completed RP-Form-031 LANSCE Metals Clearance Log for each item). None of the items in this report are located within radiological areas. Therefore, the items are considered unencumbered and are not subject to the moratorium suspension on metal recycling from Department of Energy facilities. Additionally, LANL has determined that there is no practical opportunity for internal DOE reuse or recycling of this metal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Differential Accumulation of Misfolded Prion Strains in Natural Hosts of Prion Diseases

Prion diseases, also known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), are a group of neurodegenerative protein misfolding diseases that invariably cause death. TSEs occur when the endogenous cellular prion protein (PrP C ) misfolds to form the pathological prion protein (PrP Sc ), which templates further conversion of PrP C to PrP Sc , accumulates, and initiates a cascade of pathologic processes in cells and tissues. Different strains of prion disease within a species are thought to arise from the differential misfolding of the prion protein and have different clinical phenotypes. Different strains of prion disease may also result in differential accumulation of PrP Sc in brain regions and tissues of natural hosts. Here, we review differential accumulation that occurs in the retinal ganglion cells, cerebellar cortex and white matter, and plexuses of the enteric nervous system in cattle with bovine spongiform encephalopathy, sheep and goats with scrapie, cervids with chronic wasting disease, and humans with prion diseases. By characterizing TSEs in their natural host, we can better understand the pathogenesis of different prion strains. This information is valuable in the pursuit of evaluating and discovering potential biomarkers and therapeutics for prion diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗