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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Detonation wave compression in gas turbines

A study was made of the concept of augmenting the performance of low pressure ratio gas turbines by detonation wave compression of part of the flow. The concept exploits the constant volume heat release of detonation waves to increase the efficiency of the Brayton cycle. In the models studied, a fraction of the compressor output was channeled into detonation ducts where it was processed by transient transverse detonation waves. Gas dynamic studies determined the maximum cycling frequency of detonation ducts, proved that upstream propagation of pressure pulses represented no problems and determined the variations of detonation duct output with time. Mixing and wave compression were used to recombine the combustor and detonation duct flows and a concept for a spiral collector to further smooth the pressure and temperature pulses was presented as an optional component. The best performance was obtained with a single firing of the ducts so that the flow could be re-established before the next detonation was initiated. At the optimum conditions of maximum frequency of the detonation ducts, the gas turbine efficiency was found to be 45 percent while that of a corresponding pressure ratio 5 conventional gas turbine was only 26%. Comparable improvements in specific fuel consumption data were found for gas turbines operating as jet engines, turbofans, and shaft output machines. Direct use of the detonation duct output for jet propulsion proved unsatisfactory. Careful analysis of the models of the fluid flow phenomena led to the conclusion that even more elaborate calculations would not diminish the uncertainties in the analysis of the system. Feasibility of the concept to work as an engine now requires validation in an engineering laboratory experiment.

Wortman, A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Nondestructive Isotopic Analysis with Practical Microcalorimeter Gamma Spectrometers

Advances in both instrumentation and data analysis software are now enabling the first ultra-high-resolution microcalorimeter gamma spectrometers designed for implementation in nuclear facilities and analytical laboratories. With approximately ten times better energy resolution than high-purity germanium detectors, these instruments can overcome important uncertainty limits. Microcalorimeter gamma spectroscopy is intended to provide nondestructive isotopic analysis capabilities with sufficient precision and accuracy to reduce the need for sampling, chemical separations, and mass spectrometry to meet safeguards and security goals. Key milestones were the development of the SOFIA instrument (Spectrometer Optimized for Facility Integrated Applications) and the SAPPY software (Spectral Analysis Program in PYthon). SOFIA is a compact instrument that combines advances in large multiplexed transition-edge sensor arrays with optimized cryogenic performance to overcome many practical limitations of previous systems. With a 256-pixel multiplexed detector array capable of 5,000 counts per second, measurement time can be comparable to high-purity germanium detectors. SAPPY was developed to determine isotopic ratios in data from SOFIA and other microcalorimeter instruments with an approach similar to the widely-used FRAM software. SAPPY provides a flexible framework with rigorous uncertainty analysis for both microcalorimeter and high purity germanium (HPGe) data, allowing direct comparison. Here, we present current results from the SOFIA instrument, preliminary isotopic analysis using SAPPY, and describe how the technology is being used to explore uncertainty limits of nondestructive isotopic characterization, inform safeguards models, and extract improved nuclear data including gamma-ray branching ratios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of temperature variations on BISON predictions of Ag release in AGR-1 and AGR-2 experiments

Understanding and quantifying the release of fission products like silver (Ag) from TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles is important to assess the safe operation of advanced high temperature reactors. Although the silicon carbide (SiC) layer of TRISO particles is effective as the main fission product barrier, Ag can be released from intact TRISO particles. A mechanistic model for the effective Ag diffusivity, D eff , was previously developed as a function of temperature and microstructure variables informed by atomistic modeling of Ag diffusivity on the mesoscale. Here in this study, we use this model to explore how experimental temperature uncertainties impact the overall predicted Ag release. This analysis shows that temperature uncertainties have a significant impact on the overall Ag release predictions. Furthermore, we show that the time average volume average temperature (TAVA) temperature is not an appropriate proxy for temperature histories to predict fission product release. We attribute this to the Arrhenius dependence of Ag diffusivity with respect to temperature. The detailed temperature histories, therefore, provide the most accurate results are are of most importance for modeling efforts. Overall, this work shows the importance of considering the experimental uncertainty of the temperature on computational predictions of fission product transport and release and the need for more accurate temperature histories from future experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Heterogeneity in small aliquots of Apolllo 15 olivine-normative basalt: Implications for breccia clast studies

Most of the recent advances in lunar petrology are the direct result of breccia pull-apart studies, which have identified a wide array of new highland and mare basalt rock types that occur only as clasts within the breccias. These rocks show that the lunar crust is far more complex than suspected previously, and that processes such as magma mixing and wall-rock assimilation were important in its petrogenesis. These studies are based on the implicit assumption that the breccia clasts, which range in size from a few mm to several cm across, are representative of the parent rock from which they were derived. In many cases, the aliquot allocated for analysis may be only a few grain diameters across. While this problem is most acute for coarse-grained highland rocks, it can also cause considerable uncertainty in the analysis of mare basalt clasts. Similar problems arise with small aliquots of individual hand samples. Our study of sample heterogeneity in 9 samples of Apollo 15 olivine normative basalt (ONB) which exhibit a range in average grain size from coarse to fine are reported. Seven of these samples have not been analyzed previously, one has been analyzed by INAA only, and one has been analyzed by XRF+INAA. Our goal is to assess the effects of small aliquot size on the bulk chemistry of large mare basalt samples, and to extend this assessment to analyses of small breccia clasts.

Lindstrom, Marilyn M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

On a High-Fidelity Hierarchical Approach to Buckling Load Calculations

As a step towards developing a new design philosophy, one that moves away from the traditional empirical approach used today in design towards a science-based design technology approach, a recent test series of 5 composite shells carried out by Waters at NASA Langley Research Center is used. It is shown how the hierarchical approach to buckling load calculations proposed by Arbocz et al can be used to perform an approach often called "high fidelity analysis", where the uncertainties involved in a design are simulated by refined and accurate numerical methods. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (short, DISDECO) is employed for this hierarchical analysis to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the given shell structure. This value is used later as a reference to establish the accuracy of the Level-3 buckling load predictions. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis using a sufficiently refined finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with the advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2002

Buckling Load Calculations of the Isotropic Shell A-8 Using a High-Fidelity Hierarchical Approach

As a step towards developing a new design philosophy, one that moves away from the traditional empirical approach used today in design towards a science-based design technology approach, a test series of 7 isotropic shells carried out by Aristocrat and Babcock at Caltech is used. It is shown how the hierarchical approach to buckling load calculations proposed by Arbocz et al can be used to perform an approach often called 'high fidelity analysis', where the uncertainties involved in a design are simulated by refined and accurate numerical methods. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (short, DISDECO) is employed for this hierarchical analysis to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the given shell structure. This value is used later as a reference to establish the accuracy of the Level-3 buckling load predictions. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis using a sufficiently refined finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with the advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Knight, Norman F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shock wave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantifications↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring Electron Diffusion and Constraining the Neutral Current $\pi^0$ Background for Single-Photon Events in MicroBooNE

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) are a rising technology in the field of experimental neutrino physics. LArTPCs use ionization electrons and scintillation light to reconstruct neutrino interactions with exceptional calorimetric and position resolution capabilities. Here, I present two analyses conducted in the MicroBooNE LArTPC at Fermilab: a measurement of the longitudinal electron diffusion coefficient, $D_L$, in the MicroBooNE detector and a constraint of the systematic uncertainty on MicroBooNE's single-photon analysis due to the dominant neutral current (NC) \piz{} background. Longitudinal electron diffusion modifies the spatial and timing resolution of the detector, and measuring it will help correct for these effects. Furthermore, current measurements of $D_L$ in liquid argon are sparse and in tension with one another, making the MicroBooNE measurement especially valuable. We report a measurement of $3.74^{+0.28}_{-0.29}$ cm$^2$/s. MicroBooNE is searchin g for si ngle-photon events as a potential explanation for the MiniBooNE low-energy excess (LEE) of electron neutrino-like events, which has been interpreted as evidence for low-mass sterile neutrinos. However, this search is overwhelmed by a large NC \piz{} background. By performing a sideband selection of NC \piz{} events, we apply a data-driven rate constraint to the single-photon analysis to reduce the systematic uncertainties. At present, this constraint improves the single-photon analysis' median sensitivity to the LEE-like signal from 0.9$\sigma$ to $1.5\sigma$. This sensitivity is expected to improve significantly as more data become available. Both of these measurements will not only benefit MicroBooNE, but also inform future LArTPC experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Quantity-of-Interest Preserving Lossy Compression for Scientific Data

Today's scientific simulations and instruments are producing a large amount of data, leading to difficulties in storing, transmitting, and analyzing these data. While error-controlled lossy compressors are effective in significantly reducing data volumes and efficiently developing databases for multiple scientific applications, they mainly support error controls on raw data, which leaves a significant gap between the data and user's downstream analysis. This may cause unqualified uncertainties in the outcomes of the analysis, a.k.a quantities of interest (QoIs), which are the major concerns of users in adopting lossy compression in practice. In this paper, we propose rigorous mathematical theories to preserve four families of QoIs that are widely used in scientific analysis during lossy compression along with practical implementations. Specifically, we first develop the error control theory for univariate QoIs which are essential for computing physical properties such as kinetic energy, followed by multivariate QoIs that are more commonly used in real-world applications. The proposed method is integrated into a state-of-the-art compression framework in a modular fashion, which could easily adapt to new QoIs and new compression algorithms. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method provides faithful error control on important QoIs including kinetic energy, regional average, and isosurface without trials and errors, while offering compression ratios that are up to 4x of the compression ratios provided by state-of-the-art compressors.

Jiao, Pu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Summary of Expedited Results from Samples Supporting Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) Batch 3

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is currently operating the Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) process to remove 137 Cs from tank waste supernate using an ion exchange process. As part of that process, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) receives and analyzes samples in support of the qualification of each batch to be processed. SRNL recently received supernate samples retrieved from Tank 10H as well as in-tank batch contact samples for characterization in support of qualifying Batch 3 for processing through the TCCR unit. SRNL received and characterized a set of dip samples collected from Tank 10H (one surface and one variable depth sample). No solids were observed in either sample and therefore the samples were combined, and a suite of analyses were performed on the composite sample. The density of the combined sample was 1.174 g/mL (0.18 %RSD), which was consistent with the measured sodium concentration of 3.54 M (0.08 %RSD). The 137Cs activity in the sample was 4.75E+07 dpm/mL (4.28 %RSD) and the total Cs concentration was calculated to be 1.54 mg/L (1.16E-05 M). The in-tank batch contact samples consist of 0.1 g of crystalline silicotitanate (CST) contained within a teabag device. Duplicate samples were submerged in Tank 10H supernate for a period of about 13 days, after which time they were retrieved and transferred to SRNL for analysis. At SRNL the CST was rinsed to remove excess salt solution and the CST was then air dried before being digested for analysis. Results of the analysis indicated a 137 Cs loading of 3.66E+10 ± 1.40E+09 dpm/g or 16.5 ± 0.63 Ci/kg CST . This value represents a bounding upper limit as it includes the addition of two sigma uncertainty from replicate analysis of the individual teabag samples as well as the addition of the small amount of 137 Cs activity measured in the rinse solutions. The above values are based on the air-dried mass of CST. Correcting to the true dry mass using a F-factor of 0.8191 results in a maximum loading of 20.2 ± 0.77 Ci/kg CST .

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters

Accurately predicting the criticality of an experiment before interacting with the experimental components is very important for criticality safety. Radiation transport software can be utilized to calculate the effective neutron multiplication factor of a nuclear system. Because of the integral nature of the effective neutron multiplication factor, the value calculated contains various sources of nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis and data assimilation technique presented in this paper exhibit one possible method of identifying and reducing the effective neutron multiplication factor nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The results presented in this work show that it is possible to use relative sensitivity coefficients of the prompt neutron decay constant and the effective delayed neutron fraction to 239 Pu nuclear data to reduce nuclear-data induced uncertainties in the effective neutron multiplication factor. This work has been utilized by members of the Los Alamos National Laboratory project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) for optimally designing a new experiment, which will be used to reduce compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Secular Climate Change on Mars: An Update Using One Mars Year of MSL Pressure Data

The South Polar Residual Cap (SPRC) on Mars is an icy reservoir of CO2. If all the CO2 trapped in the SPRC were released to the atmosphere the mean annual global surface pressure would rise by approximately 20 Pa. Repeated MOC and HiRISE imaging of scarp retreat within the SPRC led to suggestions that the SPRC is losing mass. Estimates for the loss rate vary between 0. 5 Pa per Mars Decade to 13 Pa per Mars Decade. Assuming 80% of this loss goes directly into the atmosphere, an estimate based on some modeling (Haberle and Kahre, 2010), and that the loss is monotonic, the global annual mean surface pressure should have increased between approximately 1-20 Pa since the Viking mission (approximately 20 Mars years ago). Surface pressure measurements by the Phoenix Lander only 2.5 Mars years ago were found to be consistent with these loss rates. Last year at this meeting we compared surface pressure data from the MSL mission through sol 360 with that from Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) for the same period to determine if the trend continues. The results were ambiguous. This year we have a full Mars year of MSL data to work with. Using the Ames GCM to compensate for dynamics and environmental differences, our analysis suggests that the mean annual pressure has decreased by approximately 8 Pa since Viking. This result implies that the SPRC has gained (not lost) mass since Viking. However, the estimated uncertainties in our analysis are easily at the 10 Pa level and possibly higher. Chief among these are the hydrostatic adjustment of surface pressure from grid point elevations to actual elevations and the simulated regional environmental conditions at the lander sites. For these reasons, the most reasonable conclusion is that there is no significant difference in the size of the atmosphere between now and Viking. This implies, but does not demand, that the mass of the SPRC has not changed since Viking. Of course, year-to-year variations are possible as implied by the Phoenix data. Given that there has been no unusual behavior in the climate system as observed by a variety of spacecraft at Mars since Phoenix, its seems more likely that the Phoenix data simply did not have a long enough record to accurately determine annual mean pressure changes as Haberle and Kahre (2010) cautioned. In the absence of a strong signal in the MSL data, we conclude that if the SPRC is loosing mass it is not going into the atmosphere reservoir.

Phoenix data↗