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NASA NTRS2020

Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weather’s Land Information System

The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoD’s Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoD’s only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information.

Wegiel, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2019

Advancing Aircraft Operations in a Net-Centric Environment with the Incorporation of Increasingly Autonomous Systems and Human Teaming

NextGen has begun the modernization of the nation’s air transportation system, with goals to improve system safety, increase operation efficiency and capacity, provide enhanced predictability, resilience and robustness. With these improvements, NextGen is poised to handle significant increases in air traffic operations, more than twice the number recorded in 2016, by 2025.1 NextGen is evolving toward collaborative decision-making across many agents, including automation, by use of a Net-Centric architecture, which in itself creates a very complex environment in which the navigation and operation of aircraft are to take place. An intricate environment such as this, coupled with the expected upsurge of air traffic operations generates concern respecting the ability of the human-agent to both fly and manage aircraft within. Therefore, it is both necessary and practical to begin the process of increasingly autonomous systems within the cockpit that will act independently to assist the human-agent achieve the overall goal of NextGen. However, the straightforward technological development and implementation of intelligent machines into the cockpit is only part of what is necessary to maintain, at minimum, or improve human-agent functionality, as desired, while operating in NextGen. The full integration of Increasingly Autonomous Systems (IAS) within the cockpit can only be accomplished when the IAS works in concert with the human, formulating trust between the two, thereby establishing a team atmosphere. Imperative to cockpit implementation is ensuring the proper performance of the IAS by the development team and the human-agent with which it will be paired when given a specific piloting, navigation, or observational task. Described in this paper are the steps taken, at NASA Langley Research Center, during the second and third phases of the development of an IAS, the Traffic Data Manager (TDM), its verification and validation by human-agents, and the foundational development of Human Autonomy Teaming (HAT) between the two.

Houston, Vincent E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Lessons Learned from Recent Space Flight Assessments

This paper highlights four space flight assessments, each with an important lesson. The first assessment points to the challenge of material substitution for weight saving. Space Shuttle’s external tank stringers were changed from Al 2024 to Al 2090 without comprehensive analysis. Lack of understanding the low Short-Transverse (S-T) strength associated with Al 2090 led to widespread cracking. The second assessment addresses the failure to understand that time-dependent relationships and loading interactions of multiple disciplines can lead to non-conservative results. An aerodynamic test article of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Launch Abort System (LAS) was analyzed for worst-case single discipline loads, showing positive structural margins. When disciplines were combined with time dependent loading, the analysis resulted in negative margins. The third assessment highlights the pitfalls of putting blind trust in historical architecture. The MPCV re-entry heat shield adopted the Apollo design approach despite fundamental differences between the two designs (e.g., the underlying substructure design, material differences, scale, and geometry). Manufacturing resulted in cracking along seams of the cured MPCV heat shield and produced lower mechanical properties of the Avcoat witness panels. Subsequently, the design was changed to a block architecture, which introduced unperceived technical, cost, and schedule risk. The fourth assessment shows how the lack of a comprehensive investigation of design modifications and inappropriate Finite Element Analyses (FEA) can lead to trouble. A mass reduction campaign eliminated highly critical internal struts on the ISS Node-1 pressurized module based on inadequate and uncorrelated FEA. High strains were noted and ignored as a modeling aberration. A system level high fidelity FEA discovered large plastic strains in the gussets of all four radial ports. These findings initiated a full-scale test campaign, new test correlated assembly-level FEA, and significant design modifications.

James P Smith↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fit2Fly: A Proof of Concept for Testing the Commercial Feasibility of Unmanned Aerial System Operations

As autonomous Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) become more prevalent, improvements in airworthiness assessments, data security, establishing vehicle trust, and more will become necessary to make fleet operations of these systems routine. Currently, these are verified for every UAS vehicle through a time-intensive manual inspection performed by human individuals. This process becomes infeasible when introduced into large-scale operations, so the Fit2Fly project is attempting to address these concerns. Fit2Fly is a multi-year project with a large scope, so we chose to narrow our focus to building a proof-of-concept feasibility simulation in tandem with physical UAS demonstration. This work resulted in a software simulation capable of running asynchronous commercial operations with persistent data modeling in coordination with several autonomous drones using integrated radio and GPS configurations.

Ryan Bonk↗
NASA NTRS2020

AERoBOND Project Summary

Under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, the Adhesive-Free Bonding of Complex Composites (AERoBOND) project investigated off-stoichiometric epoxy polymers for fast, reliable assembly of epoxy matrix composite structures. The project goal was to demonstrate feasibility of the AERoBOND joining method by demonstrating mechanical properties greater than 80% of conventional co-cured materials while reducing structure weight by 1%. The project consisted of three convergent research areas: material and process development, systems analysis, and material and process modeling. Material and process development was the largest component of AERoBOND with approximately 6 FTE and 1WYE of support to formulate and characterize new resins, prepare carbon fiber prepregs, fabricate laminates, measure mechanical properties, analyze failure results, and select material and process improvements. The systems analysis activity estimated the potential reduction in part count and aircraft weight by comparing models of composite wing boxes with no fasteners (co-cured structure), fasteners in major joints (co-cured stringers), and fasteners in all joints. The materials and process modeling activity included a molecular model of the AERoBOND materials system to predict mechanical properties of resins with offset stoichiometry and a process model to predict the effect of resin formulation and processing conditions on the extent of mixing and degree of cure in a finished joint. As the number of airline passenger trips doubles in the next 20 years (IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2019), the increased demand for new commercial aircraft is now the single greatest technical challenge to the airframe manufacturing industry. To meet efficiency requirements, new aircraft must be fabricated primarily from high performance structural composites, but manufacturing processes are inherently slow with the largest bottleneck attributed to assembly and installation of fasteners (NASA/TM–2019-220428). Manufactures of commercial transport aircraft are compelled to install more than 100,000 redundant fasteners into bonded joints to prevent failures due to unpredictable weak bonds. In structural adhesive bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making it susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Currently, bond strength assessment is only possible through destructive testing (i.e., breaking the joint). For these reasons, regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded, primary-structures to alleviate concerns with bond performance. The AERoBOND process enables reflow of matrix resin during assembly to eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface, thereby eliminating the dependence of mechanical performance on interfacial adhesion. The AERoBOND joint is equivalent to the interlaminar region obtained during a co-cure process, so joint performance depends on the cohesive properties of the matrix resin. Conventional co-cured structures, although too costly and complex for large-scale manufacturing, are trusted by manufacturers and regulators, and are certified for flight with few or no redundant fasteners.Systems analysis performed on a composite wing model at the scale of a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft indicated that >20,000 redundant fasteners per wing could be eliminated by implementing the AERoBOND joining method. A total weight reduction of 15% was predicted in a wing box by eliminating fasteners and thinning components that must no longer support localized fastener loads and accommodate fastener dimensions. Interlaminar shear fracture toughness measured by the end-notched flexure test was greater than 1 kJ/m2 (nearly 140% of the co-cured benchmark property), which is greatly in excess of the project goals for mechanical properties. Testing was planned to measure interlaminar tensile fracture toughness as well as interlaminar tensile and shear strengths using the same AERoBOND configuration, but was delayed due to closure of LaRC facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The AERoBOND process model is partially validated and available for experimental use. It allows the user to input AERoBOND process parameters such as material composition, laminate configuration, and cure cycle to predict the final cure state of the AERoBOND joint. A preliminary, multi-scale material model was developed to predict AERoBOND joint mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) based on the cure state of the joint provided by the process model. The timing for transition of this technology within NASA is excellent as NASA initiates new enduring projects to address composites manufacturing rate challenges. AERoBOND technology is well suited to AAVP/AATT objectives for rapid manufacturing of a composite wing. A minimal effort (1 FTE/$15k procurement/0 WYE) is proposed in FY21 to continue a minor mechanical testing effort and maintain a SAA with ASX composites to develop commercial quality prepreg material. An RFI with the composites industry is suggested to quantify the technology gap between the current TRL and the TRL needed for transition to industry. A moderate effort [3-4 FTE/$150k/1 WYE (~$115k)] is proposed in FY22 for the “high rate composites manufacturing” project currently in planning. The partnership with ASX Composites will be expanded to produce material for sub-element/element-scale “panel-off” activities. Industry partnerships with airframe manufacturers is an expected component to explore damage tolerance and environmental stability. Further development of multi-scale modeling tools (process model, meso-scale model, and molecular model) is planned to enhance and deliver tools for rapid manufacturing infusion.

Frank Louis Palmieri↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Design of an 'Autonomous Medical Response Agent' Interface Prototype for Long Duration Spaceflight

Major challenges for astronauts in future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will be that crewmembers are not expected to be medical professionals, may be under high workload and stress, are facing physiological challenges caused by spaceflight, and will have limited, delayed voice communications with medical support from Earth. An autonomous medical response agent (AMRA) is envisioned to help astronauts address medical complaints, develop a differential diagnosis, and guide self-treatment until a healthy state is restored. AMRA develops a process of personalized diagnosis and treatment through a Bayesian predictive control system that recommends therapeutic control actions including diagnostic tests and treatments to crewmembers (Menon, 2020). The Human Computer Interaction (HCI) lab from NASA Ames Research Center’s Human Systems Integration Division (Code TH) has collaborated with Nahlia Inc in human-centered design augmentation research for AMRA. The project, titled Design of ‘Autonomous Medical Response Agent Interface Prototype for Long Duration Spaceflight, has been funded by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) and introduces an interactive user-interface prototype that guides astronauts through self-diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation while communicating with remote specialists in ground support (most notably a patient’s flight surgeon). Our project develops the interaction design for the crewmember using AMRA through user research, iterative design, and usability testing to evaluate the user interface and workflow designed. The interface design deliverable for this project, titled AMRA Aggregate Information Display (AMRA AID) is an integrated information display system for comprehensive autonomous medical guidance, diagnosis, and treatment of in-flight medical conditions experienced by crewmembers. AMRA AID demonstrates how we might ensure crew autonomy, increase the crew’s medical capabilities, and decrease cognitive burden within a front-end user interface. AMRA AID refrains from relying on input from ground or mission control for self-treatment of medical issues—though ground awareness and communication with ground is maintained as a means of ensuring trust between mission control and crew. AMRA AID demonstrates how the crew’s on-board medical system might integrate with information from vehicle monitoring and crew schedule, without assuming causal relationships. AMRA AID’s comprehensive view enables efficient information access for both crew and ground support, reducing cognitive burden in the event of an unplanned or emergency medical incident and enabling informed analytical decisions to be made based on both crew and vehicle health. Human-centered design augmentation advanced within the prototype included: enhanced workflow and treatment guidance for two medical scenarios for a non-specialist user base with various levels of medical training, interaction design which considered speech (conversational user interface) elements and on-screen interactions to be developed in future iterations of the project, communication design and functional requirements relevant to self-care versus caring for another astronaut, as well as user testing of the prototype with an international space medical community. This project arrives at critical findings regarding usability needs, communication requirements, and integrated information requirements for a future technology interface functioning to increase confidence between ground support and LDEM crewmembers.

TRISH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spatial and Temporal Deconfliction of Trajectories in the Presence of Uncertainties

Demonstration of conflict-free movement for multi-agent teams in challenging scenarios is crucial in developing trust and trustworthiness in an autonomous transport system. Tolerance verification queries are explored as a mechanism to enforce spatial and temporal deconfliction for a cooperating team of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) with prescribed heterogeneous path-following performance. Obstacles in the environment are modelled as set of polyhedra, whereas each vehicle’s trajectory is represented as a sequence of polynomial curves with C2 continuity, expressed in a Bernstein basis. Each vehicle is modelled as a point mass and a safety distance, informed by the geometry of the UAS and the worst-case path-following error. This defines a tube around the trajectories where each UAS is most likely to fly through. In addition, obstacles in the environment have an associated safety buffer around them to account for the uncertainty in their location and geometric description. The tolerance verification queries explored in this paper combine the safety distance information from each UAS and environmental hazard to compute trajectories that are contained within the safe configuration space. Tolerance verification is also compared with other proximity queries to determine the suitability of each method along the different steps of the trajectory generation algorithm. This paper analyzes the fitness and performance of three proximity queries – collision, tolerance verification, and distance computations – between polyhedral and polynomial curves to ensure deconfliction between obstacles and vehicles, but also between polynomial curves to guarantee safe separation among cooperating UAS.

trajectory generation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Students Planting Research Of Use To Space (SPROUTS) Networking and Engagement of Interns at Kennedy Space Center

While Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has had summer interns in the life sciences for many years, beginning in 2016, the internship program was re-envisioned. Rather than having many interns in the summer with numerous innovative small projects created primarily for this purpose, the current model is to offer internship opportunities every semester (Spring, Summer, and Fall), so that research is continuous and sustained. Since 2016 we have had 64 internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students in the areas of space crop production and microgravity simulation support. Some students have participated in more than one opportunity, so 52 separate individuals have participated in this program. While interns primarily worked with individual mentors on a main project, most also worked on group projects with other interns or developed smaller secondary projects on their own initiative. In addition, all interns participated in a weekly Lunch, Learn, and Discuss seminar series where they were encouraged to present their research, learn from scientists at KSC, and engage with members of the space life sciences community. When the face-to-face spring internship of 2020 ended prematurely, we resumed the weekly seminar series as a virtual event, and this led to the concept of engaging former interns. Current and former interns were invited to participate in the on-going virtual series, and 46 asked to be included on the mailing list. Our current seminar series involves remote seminars or hosted discussions from contacts within and outside of the agency, and engages a large network of current scientists and former interns with an weekly participation averaging 40-50 people. Speakers include experts from industry, academia, and other space agencies working on topics of interest to KSC space life science researchers. In addition, this series has served as a brain trust and brainstorming mechanism for KSC scientists to invite and discuss new ideas and concepts. The advent of remote work and virtual platforms has allowed us to engage with interns in a new way that will continue as future interns are integrated into this network of individuals interested in space research. This work is funded by NASA’s Space Biology Program.

Internships↗
NASA NTRS2020

Credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare: ten rules from a multidisciplinary perspective

The complexities of modern biomedicine are rapidly increasing. Thus, modeling and simulation have become increasingly important as a strategy to understand and predict the trajectory of pathophysiology, disease genesis, and disease spread in support of clinical and policy decisions. In such cases, inappropriate or ill-placed trust in the model and simulation outcomes may result in negative outcomes, and hence illustrate the need to formalize the execution and communication of modeling and simulation practices. Although verification and validation have been generally accepted as significant components of a model’s credibility, they cannot be assumed to equate to a holistic credible practice, which includes activities that can impact comprehension and in-depth examination inherent in the devel-opment and reuse of the models. For the past several years, the Committee on Credible Practice of Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare, an interdisciplinary group seeded from a U.S. interagency initiative, has worked to codify best practices. Here, we provide Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare developed from a comparative analysis by the Committee’s multidisciplinary membership, followed by a large stakeholder com-munity survey. These rules establish a unified conceptual framework for modeling and simulation design, implementation, evaluation, dissemination and usage across the modeling and simulation life-cycle. While biomedical science and clinical care domains have somewhat different requirements and expectations for credible practice, our study converged on rules that would be useful across a broad swath of model types. In brief, the rules are: (1) Define context clearly. (2) Use contextually appropriate data. (3) Evaluate within context. (4) List limitations explicitly. (5) Use version control. (6) Document appropriately. (7) Disseminate broadly. (8) Get independent reviews. (9) Test competing imple-mentations. (10) Conform to standards. Although some of these are common sense guidelines, we have found that many are often missed or misconstrued, even by seasoned practitioners. Computational models are already widely used in basic science to generate new biomedical knowledge. As they penetrate clinical care and healthcare policy, contributing to personalized and precision medicine, clinical safety will require established guidelines for the credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare.

Credibility↗
NASA NTRS2020

Characterization of How CO2 Level May Impact Crew Performance Related to the HSIA Risk

Safety and mission critical anomalies are inevitable on NASA exploration missions. Delays and interruptions in communication with Earth-experts drives the requirement that crew resolve these anomalies on their own. The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance (HFBP) element of the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) recently stood-up the Human-System Integration Architecture (HSIA) risk. The specific risk statement is: “Given decreasing real-time ground support for execution of complex operations during future exploration missions, there is a possibility of adverse performance outcomes including that crew are unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety critical procedural errors.” Reliable, on-board capabilities will need to support the crew - not only to resolve anomalies, but also to promote situation awareness (SA) and to reduce workload. Unfortunately, the present level of technological advancement limits the range of achievable intelligent support (Wu & Vera, 2019). The Human Capabilities Assessment for Autonomous Missions (HCAAM) projects were devised to identify how technology may benefit crew situation awareness and enhance crew trust in the intelligent systems. A suite of time-critical and complex exploration tasks have been identified (Holden et al., 2019) that may advance human-integration Concept of Operations (ConOps) development. This ConOps (a future HFBP directed task) along with standards and guidelines (Holden et al., 2019) may be used as the foundation for human-system requirements for a self-reliant crew. Spaceflight CO2 levels are elevated relative to terrestrial levels. Above 2.5 mmHg there is an increase in the incidence of crew headaches (Law et al., 2014) and Mission Control reports of mood and performance changes in the crew. The concern is that elevated CO2 effects may exacerbate the HSIA risk. Unfortunately, effects of higher concentrations of CO2 on performance decrements are not well established. The main goal of the current report is to identify how elevated CO2 impacts the HSIA risk. The approach taken is to trace the relationship between cognitive and motor abilities required for anomaly response with critical mission tasks and the level of technological advancement to support anomaly resolution to identify how elevated CO2 may impact the HSIA risk. The conclusion is that elevated CO2 could exacerbate the HSIA risk. Several research gaps are identified.

cognition↗
NASA NTRS2003

UCLA parallel PIC framework

The UCLA Parallel PIC Framework (UPIC) has been developed to provide trusted components for the rapid construction of new, parallel Particle-in-Cell (PIC) codes. The Framework uses object-based ideas in Fortran95, and is designed to provide support for various kinds of PIC codes on various kinds of hardware. The focus is on student programmers. The Framework supports multiple numerical methods, different physics approximations, different numerical optimizations and implementations for different hardware. It is designed with "defensive" programming in mind, meaning that it contains many error checks and debugging helps. Above all, it is designed to hide the complexity of parallel processing. It is currently being used in a number of new Parallel PIC codes.

Norton, Charles D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Atmospheric Remote Sensing by Microwave Radiometry

The Earth's atmosphere is a puzzle and a concern. Its unpredictable weather has always been a force to be recokoned with, but until recent times, our trust was implicit in the robustness of the atmospheric system as the foundation of our biosphere. Now we are not so sure.

microwave↗
NASA NTRS2017

Options for Radiation Tolerant High-Performance Memory

Memory technologies were reviewed for radiation effects performance in order to determine the most cost-efficient target for a possible memory investment targeted at creating a memory component of general applicability for space use. TID and SEL trends that had indicated improvement in intrinsic performance based on scaling cannot be trusted. SEE hardening of memory arrays is prohibitive in terms of cell-level power and area requirements. Radiation-hardened cells and custom controllers are recommended for future memory developments.

Some, Raphael↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Standard Reference Model for Data Archives

An implementable Data Archive Architecture is being developed for trusted digital repositories based on the Reference Model for an Open Archival Information System (OAIS) – ISO 14721. A set of interoperable protocols and interface specifications are planned that will offer capabilities for accessing, merging, and re-using data, both within and across the operational boundaries of trustworthy digital repositories. The model will also provide support for the fundamental scientific need to verify the reproducibility of results. This standards development task is being performed by the Data Archive Interoperability (DAI) working group within the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS). The architecture integrates concepts from the OAIS Reference Model, the ISO/IEC 11179 Metadata Registry (MDR) standard, the CCSDS Reference Architecture for Space Information Management (RASIM), the proposed draft recommended practice document, Information Preparation to Enable Long Term Use (IPELTU), and three decades of digital repository development for science research.

Ambacher, Bruce↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lightweight Thrust Chamber Composite Overwrap Lessons Learned

Filament winding a polymer/carbon fiber composite overwrap onto an additively manufactured copper combustion chamber will allow it to act as a light-weight structural jacket, significantly reducing weight for high pressure thrust chamber assemblies and reducing overall cost and fabrication schedules. Chamber assemblies for 2k lb. and 7k lb. of thrust have been successfully tested at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. Multiple lessons were learned throughout the overwrap process development and manufacturing trials. The lessons learned on small scale hardware will guide further composite manufacturing technologies and enable a progression to larger scale assemblies with greater structural loads. Material performance requirements, manufacturing process development, and surface preparation were evaluated during the small chamber trials, with the broad thermal requirements of the resin being the primary driver for material selection and processing. Both epoxy and bismaleimide materials were evaluated with respect to both performance in the hot-fire test and ease of fabrication. Separately, surface preparation procedures were studied with the goal of providing a smooth chamber surface to promote a non-bonded overwrap. The recent testing of the 7k trust chamber has provided data in Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) and processing in order to continue to evaluate the performance requirements stated.

composite overwrap↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy and advocacy at the agency, enabling future missions and advancing U.S. economic competitiveness. Specifically, OCT coordinates and uses inputs from abroad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OCT develops the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OCT has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OCT as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Case Study: Analysis of Autonomous Center line Tracking Neural Networks

Deep neural networks have gained widespread usage in a number of applications. However, limitations such as lack of explainability and robustness inhibit building trust in their behavior, which is crucial in safety critical applications such as autonomous driving. Therefore, techniques which aid in understanding and providing guarantees for neural network behavior are the need of the hour. In this paper, we present a case study applying a recently proposed technique, Prophecy, to analyze the behavior of a neural network model, provided by our industry partner and used for autonomous guiding of airplanes on taxi runways. This regression model takes as input an image of the runway and produces two outputs, cross-track error and heading error, which represent the position of the plane relative to the center line. We use the Prophecy tool to extract neuron activation patterns for the correctness and safety properties of the model. We show the use of these patterns to identify features of the input that explain correct and incorrect behavior. We also use the patterns to provide guarantees of consistent behavior. We explore a novel idea of using sequences of images (instead of single images) to obtain good explanations and identify regions of consistent behavior.

Deep Neural Networks↗