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DOE OSTI2024

Coordinated JWST Imaging of Three Distance Indicators in a Supernova Host Galaxy and an Estimate of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch Color Dependence

Boasting a 6.5 m mirror in space, JWST can increase by several times the number of supernovae (SNe) to which a redshift-independent distance has been measured with a precision distance indicator (e.g., tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) or Cepheids); the limited number of such SN calibrators currently dominates the uncertainty budget in distance ladder Hubble constant (H 0 ) experiments. JWST/NIRCAM imaging of the Virgo Cluster galaxy NGC 4536 is used here to preview JWST program GO-1995, which aims to measure H 0 using three stellar distance indicators (Cepheids, TRGB, and J-branch asymptotic giant branch/carbon stars). Each population of distance indicator was here successfully detected—with sufficiently large number statistics, well-measured fluxes, and characteristic distributions consistent with ingoing expectations—so as to confirm that we can acquire distances from each method precise to about 0.05 mag (statistical uncertainty only). We leverage overlapping Hubble Space Telescope imaging to identify TRGB stars, crossmatch them with the JWST photometry, and present a preliminary constraint on the slope of the TRGB's F115W versus (F115W – F444W) relation equal to -0.99 ± 0.16 mag mag -1 . This slope is consistent with prior slope measurements in the similar Two Micron All-Sky Survey J band, as well as with predictions from the BaSTI isochrone suite. We use the new TRGB slope estimate to flatten the 2D TRGB feature and measure a (blinded) TRGB distance relative to a set of fiducial TRGB colors, intended to represent the absolute fiducial calibrations expected from geometric anchors such as NGC 4258 and the Magellanic Clouds. In doing so, we empirically demonstrate that the TRGB can be used as a standardizable candle at the IR wavelengths accessible with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Common Origin of Normal Type Ia Supernovae Suggested by the Photometric Diversity

In recent years, with the increasing number of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered soon after their explosions, a nonnegligible fraction of SNe Ia with early-excess emissions (EExSNe Ia) have been confirmed. In this paper, we present a total of 67 early-phase normal SNe Ia from published papers and ongoing transient survey projects to systematically investigate their photometric behaviors from very early time. We found that EExSNe Ia in our sample have longer rise and brighter peak luminosities compared to non-EExSNe Ia. Moreover, EExSNe Ia commonly have “tiny red bump” or “blue plateau” features in the early B − V color while non-EExSNe Ia show blueward evolution from the very beginning. Here, we propose that the thin He-shell double detonation scenario can phenomenologically explain the photometric diversities of normal SNe Ia considering different white dwarf–He-shell mass combinations and the viewing angle effect, implying a unified explosion mechanism of normal-type SNe Ia. To further verify the possible common origin of normal SNe Ia, systematical studies of multiband photometric and spectral properties of early-phase SNe Ia through the new-generation wide-field time-domain survey facilities and global real-time follow-up networks are highly needed.

Wu, Weiyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermi-LAT Captures a Late-2024 Gamma-Ray Outburst near Two Newly Identified Gamma-Ray-emitting Galactic Supernova Remnants, without Evidence of Physical Association

We report the gamma-ray study of two neighboring in the sky Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs), namely, 3C 434.1 (or G094.0+01.0) and G093.7–00.2. In the vicinity of the two SNRs, a late-2024 gamma-ray outburst—not physically connected to the SNRs—was detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Employing 16.5 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we report the first firm detection of the gamma-ray counterpart of 3C 434.1 at a 7.2σ significance and a likely detection of an enhanced gamma-ray emission signal at a 4.5σ level from G093.7–00.2. The late-2024 gamma-ray outburst is detected at a ∼12σ significance level over a duration of 3 days. For all three objects, a comprehensive morphological and spectral analysis of the corresponding gamma-ray data was conducted. The prevalent scenario for the nature of the gamma-ray emission of both SNRs is attributed to their surrounding environment. Both are likely interacting with nearby dense material, resulting in hadronically induced gamma-ray emission. We deduce that the outburst source is most likely a blazar in flare, linked to the compact, flat-spectrum radio source TXS 2138+527 (also known as NVSS J213953+530016). Further, the spectral analysis of the gamma-ray source conducted within the 100 MeV–800 GeV energy range using the complete LAT data sets, which yielded a soft averaged spectral shape, supports the hypothesis of a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) origin for the source; with a most likely leptonically induced scenario for the observed gamma-ray outburst as inferred from the obtained hard spectral shape when utilizing short time intervals focusing on the outburst.

Michailidis, Miltiadis [Stanford Univ., CA (United↗
DOE OSTI2025

Type Ia Supernova Growth-rate Measurement with LSST Simulations: Intrinsic Scatter Systematics

Measurement of the growth rate of structures (fσ 8 ) with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will improve our understanding of the nature of dark energy and enable tests of general relativity. In this paper, we generate simulations of the 10 yr SN Ia data set of the Rubin-LSST survey, including a correlated velocity field from an N-body simulation and realistic models of SNe Ia properties and their correlations with host-galaxy properties. We find, similar to SN Ia analyses that constrain the dark energy equation-of-state parameters w 0 w a , that constraints on fσ 8 can be biased depending on the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia. While for the majority of intrinsic scatter models we recover fσ 8 with a precision of ∼13%–14%, for the most realistic dust-based model, we find that the presence of non-Gaussianities in Hubble diagram residuals leads to a bias on fσ 8 of ∼ −20%. When trying to correct for the dust-based intrinsic scatter, we find that the propagation of the uncertainty on the model parameters does not significantly increase the error on fσ 8 . We also find that while the main component of the error budget of fσ 8 is the statistical uncertainty (>75% of the total error budget), the systematic error budget is dominated by the uncertainty on the damping parameter, σ u , that gives an empirical description of the effect of redshift space distortions on the velocity power spectrum. Our results motivate a search for new methods to correct for the non-Gaussian distribution of the Hubble diagram residuals, as well as an improved modeling of the damping parameter.

Carreres, Bastien [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Roman Grism Redshift Efficiency of Type Ia Supernova Host Galaxies for the High-latitude Time-domain Survey

The High-latitude Time-domain Survey (HLTDS) for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will discover thousands of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to set generation-defining cosmological constraints on dark energy. To construct the Roman SN Hubble diagram, a strategy to obtain redshifts must be determined. While the nominal HLTDS will use only the Roman prism, in this work, we consider the utility of the Roman grism observations from overlap with the High-latitude Wide-area Survey for SN Ia cosmology. We determine a galaxy grism redshift recovery rate by simulating dispersed grism images and measuring redshifts with the Grizli software, obtaining an H-band 50% redshift recovery at magnitude 20.61 and 90% recovery at magnitude 19.27. To estimate the total number of spectroscopic redshifts expected for Roman SN cosmology, we also consider a Roman prism SN redshift efficiency and a ground-based telescope redshift efficiency for host galaxies. We apply these redshift efficiencies to SN Ia catalog-level simulations and predict that ∼6800 SNe will have an SN or host spectroscopic redshift. Second, we evaluate the size of potential systematics related to modeling the grism redshift efficiency by considering the impact of additional dependences on stellar mass and host-galaxy color. We estimate the largest potential size of this systematic to be 0.0066 ± 0.002 and −0.0266 ± 0.0079, roughly 42.9% and 49.6% of the statistical uncertainty, for w 0 and w a , respectively. Lastly, we consider the effects of assuming different redshift sources on the optimization of the HLTDS survey strategy by measuring relative changes to the dark energy figure of merit.

Chen, Rebecca C. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United S↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Search for Successful and Choked Jets in Nearby Broad-lined Type Ic Supernovae

The observational link between long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and broad-lined stripped-envelope core-collapse supernovae (SNe Ic-BL) is well established. Significant progress has been made in constraining what fraction of SNe Ic-BL may power high- or low-luminosity GRBs when viewed at small off-axis angles. However, the GRB–SN connection still lacks a complete understanding in the broader context of massive-star evolution and explosion physics. Models predict a continuum of outcomes for the fastest ejecta, from choked to ultrarelativistic jets, and observations from radio to X-rays are key to probing these scenarios across a range of viewing angles and velocities. Here, we present results from a coordinated radio-to-X-ray campaign targeting nearby (z ≲ 0.1) SNe Ic-BL designed to explore this diversity. With eight new radio-monitored events and updated data for one previously observed SN, we further tighten constraints on the fraction of SNe Ic-BL as relativistic as SN 1998bw (GRB 980425). We identify SN 2024rjw as a new radio-loud event likely powered by strong interaction with circumstellar material, and add evidence supporting a similar interpretation for SN 2020jqm. We also establish new limits on the properties of radio-emitting ejecta with velocities consistent with cocoons from choked jets, highlighting SN 2022xxf as a promising cocoon-dominated candidate. These results refine our understanding of the continuum linking ordinary SNe Ic-BL, engine-driven explosions, and GRBs, and contribute to building a sample that will inform future multimessenger searches for electromagnetic counterparts to high-energy neutrinos.

O’Dwyer, Tanner [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, M↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing Physics beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-generation Type Ia Supernova, Cosmic Microwave Background, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Surveys

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), which probe the late Universe, together with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the intermediate and early epochs, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SN Ia sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra (TT/EE/TE/ϕϕ) from the South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4–like experiment. We derive constraints on ΛCDM and its extensions involving the dark energy equation-of-state parameters (w 0 , w a ) and the sum of neutrino masses ∑m ν using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year 3 SN Ia sample can improve upon the DES Year 5 dark energy constraints by a factor of 2−2.5×, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SN Ia density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a 1.8× improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in the low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SN Ia and DESI-DR3-BAO yields σ(w 0 ) = 0.028 and σ(w a ) = 0.11 for w 0 w a CDM cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%–30% when freeing ∑m ν and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a 2σ–3σ detection of ∑m ν .

Raghunathan, Srinivasan [University of California;↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Multidimensional Progenitor Perturbations on Core-collapse Supernova Explosions

Numerical studies of core-collapse supernovae have demonstrated the importance of nonradial motions in precollapse progenitors on the explosion outcome. We use the Chimera neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code running seven two-dimensional simulations of 15 M⊙ progenitors with different progenitor structures introduced by different one- and two-dimensional precollapse stellar evolution environments to examine the impacts of stellar structure and nonspherical motion in the precollapse progenitor on the development of explosions. We compare the explosion evolution of these models in terms of shock dynamics, diagnostic energy, neutrino heating, accretion, explosion geometry, nuclear abundances, and turbulent convection. We also analyze how stochastic variation impacts our simulations. Contrary to results reported in prior studies examining the impacts of multidimensional progenitors, we observe similar shock revival times and explosion development in our simulations despite differences in initial compositions and structures. We find no discernible impact from the accretion of nonradial perturbations from a multi-D progenitor onto the stalled shock in the revival and strength of explosion, as fully developed neutrino-driven convection behind the stalled shock is similar for all our models. For models with physically sourced noise in the iron core, a strong oscillation of the shock occurs after bounce and deflects infall laterally, and accelerates the saturation of the lateral turbulent kinetic energy. An examination of model stochasticity shows that any prior expected impacts on explosive outcome due to convection-related perturbations lie below the detectable threshold of numerical variation.

Chen, Chien-Hui [North Carolina State University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing an Optimal LSST Deep Drilling Program for Cosmology with Type Ia Supernovae

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is forecast to collect a large sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) expected to be instrumental in unveiling the nature of dark energy. The feat, however, requires accurately measuring the two components of the Hubble diagram, distance modulus and redshift. Distance is estimated from SN Ia parameters extracted from light-curve fits, where the average quality of light curves is primarily driven by survey parameters. An optimal observing strategy is thus critical for measuring cosmological parameters with high accuracy. We present in this paper a three-stage analysis to assess the impact of the deep drilling (DD) strategy parameters on three critical aspects of the survey: redshift completeness, the number of well-measured SNe Ia, and cosmological measurements. We demonstrate that the current DD survey plans (internal LSST simulations) are characterized by a low completeness (z ~ 0.55–0.65), and irregular and low cadences (several days), which dramatically decrease the size of the well-measured SN Ia sample. We propose a method providing the number of visits required to reach higher redshifts. We use the results to design a set of optimized DD surveys for SN Ia cosmology taking full advantage of spectroscopic resources for host galaxy redshift measurements. The most accurate cosmological measurements are achieved with deep rolling surveys characterized by a high cadence (1 day), a rolling strategy (at least two seasons of observation per field), and ultradeep (z ≳ 0.8) and deep (z ≳ 0.6) fields. A deterministic scheduler including a gap recovery mechanism is critical to achieving a high-quality DD survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Specific Effect of Peculiar Velocities on Dark-energy Constraints from Type Ia Supernovae

Peculiar velocities of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) host galaxies affect the dark-energy parameter constraints in a small but very specific way: the parameters are biased in a single direction in parameter space that is a priori knowable for a given SN Ia data set. We demonstrate the latter fact with a combination of inference from a cosmological N-body simulation with overwhelming statistics applied to the Pantheon SN Ia data set, then confirm it by simple quantitative arguments. Here, we quantify small modifications to the current analyses that would ensure that the effect of cosmological parameters is essentially guaranteed to be negligible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supernova-driven Turbulent Metal Mixing in High-redshift Galactic Disks: Metallicity Fluctuations in the Interstellar Medium and its Imprints on Metal-poor Stars in the Milky Way

The extent to which turbulence mixes gas in the face of recurrent infusions of fresh metals by supernovae (SN) could help provide important constraints on the local star formation conditions. This includes predictions of the metallicity dispersion among metal-poor stars, which suggests that the interstellar medium was not very well mixed at these early times. The purpose of this Letter is to help isolate, via a series of numerical experiments, some of the key processes that regulate turbulent mixing of SN elements in galactic disks. We study the gas interactions in small simulated patches of a galaxy disk with the goal of resolving the small-scale mixing effects of metals at parsec scales, which enables us to measure the turbulent diffusion coefficient in various galaxy environments. By investigating the statistics of variations of α elements in these simulations, we are able to derive constraints not only on the allowed range of intrinsic yield variations in SN explosions but also on the star formation history of the Milky Way. We argue that the observed dispersion of [Mg/Fe] in metal-poor halo stars is compatible with the star-forming conditions expected in dwarf satellites or in an early low-star-forming Milky Way progenitor. In particular, metal variations in stars that have not been phase-mixed can be used to infer the star-forming conditions of disrupted dwarf satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Binning is Sinning: Redemption for Hubble Diagram Using Photometrically Classified Type Ia Supernovae

Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) is implemented in the BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) framework to produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram (HD) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). BBC corrects for selection effects and non–SN Ia contamination, and systematic uncertainties are described by a covariance matrix with dimension matching the number of BBC redshift bins. For spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia samples, a recent "Binning is Sinning" article showed that an unbinned HD and covariance matrix reduces the systematic uncertainty by a factor of ~1.5 compared to the binned approach. Here we extend their analysis to obtain an unbinned HD for a photometrically identified sample processed with BBC. To test this new method, we simulate and analyze 50 samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with a low-redshift anchor; the simulation includes SNe Ia, and contaminants from core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia. The analysis includes systematic uncertainties for calibration and measures the dark energy equation of state parameter (w). Compared to a redshift-binned HD, the unbinned HD with nearly 2000 events results in a smaller systematic uncertainty, in qualitative agreement with BHS21, and averaging results among the 50 samples we find no evidence for a w-bias. To reduce computation time for fitting an unbinned HD with large samples, we propose an HD-rebinning method that defines the HD in bins of redshift, color, and stretch; the rebinned HD results in similar uncertainty as the unbinned case, and shows no evidence for a w-bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

EP 250108a/SN 2025kg: Observations of the Most Nearby Broad-line Type Ic Supernova Following an Einstein Probe Fast X-Ray Transient

With a small sample of fast X-ray transients (FXTs) with multiwavelength counterparts discovered to date, their progenitors and connections to γ-ray bursts (GRBs) and supernovae (SNe) remain ambiguous. Here, we present photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2025kg, the SN counterpart to the FXT EP 250108a. At z = 0.17641, this is the closest known SN discovered following an Einstein Probe (EP) FXT. We show that SN 2025kg’s optical spectra reveal the hallmark features of a broad-lined Type Ic SN. Its light-curve evolution and expansion velocities are comparable to those of GRB-SNe, including SN 1998bw, and two past FXT-SNe. We present JWST/NIRSpec spectroscopy taken around SN 2025kg’s maximum light, and find weak absorption due to He I 1.0830 μm and 2.0581 μm and a broad, unidentified emission feature at ∼4–4.5 μm. Further, we observe broadened Hα in optical data at 42.5 days that is not detected at other epochs, indicating interaction with H-rich material. From its light curve, we derive a 56 Ni mass of 0.2–0.6 M ⊙ . Together with our companion Letter, our broadband data are consistent with a trapped or low-energy (≲10 51 erg) jet-driven explosion from a collapsar with a zero-age main-sequence mass of 15–30 M ⊙ . Finally, we show that the sample of EP FXT-SNe supports past estimates that low-luminosity jets seen through FXTs are more common than successful (GRB) jets, and that similar FXT-like signatures are likely present in at least a few percent of the brightest Type Ic-BL SNe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Supernova 5YR Data Release

This data set was generated by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) team, and was used for the cosmological analysis in the DES key supernova cosmology paper (arXiv:2401.02929). When using this data please cite both the data release paper (Sanchez et al. 2024, ApJ, arXiv:2406.05046) and the DES key paper (Dark Energy Survey Collaboration 2024, ApJL, arXiv:2401.02929). At DES-SN5YR Github Repo (https://github.com/des-science/DES-SN5YR), we provide a comprehensive list of references for the different data products (SALT3 light-curve model, calibration, DCR corrections, SN classification, SN distances and uncertainties covariance matrix). If you have questions, post an issue on the DES-SN5YR Github repository and/or get in touch with the contact people indicated on the Github repository.

Contractor, Fermilab [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence in Supernovae

Data behind the figures in the publication "Turbulence in Supernovae" in The Astrophysical Journal DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ae1475

Calvert, David John [North Carolina State Universi↗