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Results for “Stochastic optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Energy harvesting by dynamic unstability and internal resonance for piezoelectric beam

We investigated the energy harvesting of a vertical beam with tip mass under vertical excitations. We applied dynamic unstability and internal resonance to improve the efficiency of harvesting. The experiments of harmonic excitation were carried out. Results show that for the beam there exist internal resonances in the dynamically unstable and the buckling bistable cases. The dynamic unstability is a determinant for strong internal resonance or mode coupling, which can be used to create a large output from piezoelectric patches. Then, the experiments of stochastic excitation were carried out. Results prove that the internal resonance or mode coupling can transfer the excitation energy to the low order modes, mainly the first and the second one. This can bring about a large output voltage. For a stochastic excitation, it is proved that there is an optimal weight of tip mass for realizing internal resonance and producing large outputs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Battery and backup generator sizing for a resilient microgrid under stochastic extreme events

Owing to the recent power outages caused by extreme events, installing battery energy storage and backup generators is important to improve resiliency for a grid-tied microgrid. In the design stage, the event occurrence time and duration, which are highly uncertain and cannot be effectively predicted, may affect the needed battery and backup generator capacity but are usually assumed to be pre-determined in utility planning tools. This study investigates the optimal battery and backup generator sizing problem considering the stochastic event occurrence time and duration for the grid-tied microgrid under islanded operation. The reliability requirement is quantified by the mean value of the critical customer interruption time in each stochastic islanding time window (ITW), whose length is the duration and the centre is the occurrence time. The stochastic ITW constraint is then transformed to a probability-weighted expression to derive an equivalent Mixed Integer Linear Programming model. Numerical simulations on a realistic grid-tied PV-based microgrid demonstrate that the total cost is reduced by 11.5% considering the stochastic ITW, compared with the deterministic ITW under the same reliability requirement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pilot Point Optimization of Mining Boundaries for Lateritic Metal Deposits: Finding the Trade-off Between Dilution and Ore Loss

Geological contacts in lateritic metal deposits (footwall topographies) often delineate the orebody boundaries. Spatial variations seen in such contacts are frequently higher than those for the metal grades of the deposit. Therefore, borehole spacing chosen based on the grade variations cannot adequately capture the geological contact variability. Consequently, models created using such boreholes cause high volumetric uncertainties in the actual and targeted ore extraction volumes, which, in turn, lead to high unplanned dilution and ore losses. In this paper, a method to design optimum ore/mining boundaries for lateritic metal deposits is presented. The proposed approach minimizes the dilution/ore losses and comprises two main steps. First, the uncertainty on the orebody boundary is represented using a set of stochastic realizations generated with a multiple-point statistics algorithm. Then, the optimal orebody boundary is determined using an optimization technique inspired by a model calibration method called Pilot Points. The pilot points represent synthetic elevation values, and they are used to construct smooth mining boundaries using the multilevel B-spline technique. The performance of a generated surface is evaluated using the expected sum of losses in each of the stochastic realizations. The simulated annealing algorithm is used to iteratively determine the pilot point values which minimize the expected losses. The results show a significant reduction in the dilution volume as compared to those obtained from the actual mining operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2016

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations, be it of genetic, epigenetic or stochastic origin, has been identified as a main source of resistance to drug treatments and a major source of therapeutic failures in cancers. The molecular mechanisms of drug resistance are partly understood at the single cell level (e.g., overexpression of ABC transporters or of detoxication enzymes), but poorly predictable in tumours, where they are hypothesised to rely on heterogeneity at the cell population scale, which is thus the right level to describe cancer growth and optimise its control by therapeutic strategies in the clinic. We review a few results from the biological literature on the subject, and from mathematical models that have been published to predict and control evolution towards drug resistance in cancer cell populations. We propose, based on the latter, optimisation strategies of combined treatments to limit emergence of drug resistance to cytotoxic drugs in cancer cell populations, in the monoclonal situation, which limited as it is still retains consistent features of cell population heterogeneity. The polyclonal situation, that may be understood as “bet hedging” of the tumour, thus protecting itself from different sources of drug insults, may lie beyond such strategies and will need further developments. In the monoclonal situation, we have designed an optimised therapeutic strategy relying on a scheduled combination of cytotoxic and cytostatic treatments that can be adapted to different situations of cancer treatments. Finally, we review arguments for biological theoretical frameworks proposed at different time and development scales, the so-called atavistic model (diachronic view relying on Darwinian genotype selection in the coursof billions of years) and the Waddington-like epigenetic landscape endowed with evolutionary quasi-potential (synchronic view relying on Lamarckian phenotype instruction of a given genome by reversible mechanisms), to represent evolution towards heterogeneity, possibly polyclonal, in cancer cell populations and propose innovative directions for therapeutic strategies based on such frameworks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observation of spatter-induced stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser powder bed fusion using in situ process monitoring

Material produced via additive manufacturing (AM) continues to exhibit variable mechanical properties despite apparent optimization of processing parameters, inhibiting qualification efforts and limiting use in critical applications. Stochastic lack-of-fusion flaws may help explain this variability, but the origin of these seemingly random defects has to this point remained unclear. In this work, we show that spatter particles, material ejected from the laser melt pool, are directly responsible for generating stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser-based powder bed fusion components through the application of spatial statistics. Herein a statistically significant, causal relationship between spatter particles and stochastic lack-of-fusion is established, and the spatial and morphological relationships between spatter and internal flaws are investigated. The occurrence of spatter-induced lack-of-fusion in relation to the inert gas flow and laser trajectory direction is also investigated, and recommendations for mitigating the occurrence of spatter are evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗
DOE OSTI2014

Accurate modeling of switched reluctance machine based on hybrid trained WNN

According to the strong nonlinear electromagnetic characteristics of switched reluctance machine (SRM), a novel accurate modeling method is proposed based on hybrid trained wavelet neural network (WNN) which combines improved genetic algorithm (GA) with gradient descent (GD) method to train the network. In the novel method, WNN is trained by GD method based on the initial weights obtained per improved GA optimization, and the global parallel searching capability of stochastic algorithm and local convergence speed of deterministic algorithm are combined to enhance the training accuracy, stability and speed. Based on the measured electromagnetic characteristics of a 3-phase 12/8-pole SRM, the nonlinear simulation model is built by hybrid trained WNN in Matlab. The phase current and mechanical characteristics from simulation under different working conditions meet well with those from experiments, which indicates the accuracy of the model for dynamic and static performance evaluation of SRM and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uniform redundancy allocation maximizes the robustness of flow networks against cascading failures

We study the robustness of flow networks against cascading failures under a partial load redistribution model. In particular, we consider a flow network of N lines with initial loads L 1 ,...,L N and free spaces (i.e., redundant space) S 1 ,...,S N that are independent and identically distributed with joint distribution P LS (x,y) = P[L ≤ x, S ≤ y]. The capacity C i is the maximum load allowed on line i and is given by C i = L i + S i . Furthermore, when a line fails due to overloading, it is removed from the system and (1 – ε) fraction of the load it was carrying is redistributed equally among all remaining lines in the system. The rest (i.e., ε fraction) of the load is assumed to be lost or absorbed, e.g., due to advanced circuitry disconnecting overloaded power lines or an interconnected network or material absorbing a fraction of the flow from overloaded lines. We analyze the robustness of this flow network against random attacks that remove a p fraction of the lines. Our contributions include (i) deriving the final fraction of alive lines n ∞ (p,ε) for all p,εϵ(0,1) and confirming the results via extensive simulations; (ii) showing that partial redistribution might lead to (depending on the parameter 0 < ε ≤ 1) the order of transition at the critical attack size p* changing from first to second-order; and (iii) proving analytically that flow networks achieve maximum robustness [quantified by the area ∫$^{1}_{0}$ n ∞ (p,ε)dp] when all lines have the same free space regardless of their initial load. The optimality of equal free-space allocation is also confirmed on real-world data from the UK National Power Grid.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Distribution System Adaptive Restoration with Diverse Distributed Energy Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) can be utilized as alternative power sources for fast service recovery in cases of distribution system outages. However, the diverse characteristics and stochastic nature of DERs impose challenges on the optimal operation of di-verse resources during the restoration phase. Here, we introduce a hierarchical structure to coordinate distribution system entities and propose an adaptive restoration strategy to sustain a reliable power supply to outage loads in an unbalanced distribution system utilizing DERs. An efficient system reconfiguration model is developed to guarantee the radiality of restoration islands. The flexibility of DERs is evaluated by a novel method that focuses on the cumulative energy consumption, the superiority of which is also proven. Model predictive control (MPC) is adopted to enable the adjustment of system topology and DER operation strategies based on up-to-date data. The performance of the proposed restoration model is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed novel flexibility assessment and the MPC-based adaptive restoration strategy are verified through comparative studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Case Study: Nuclear-Renewable-Water Integration in Arizona

This document reports the application of the N-R HES software framework to a case study for Arizona Public Service (APS); the manager and part owner of the Palo Verde (PV) nuclear power plant. The case study is a work in progress of which this report presents a detailed description of the current model input data, assumptions and the corresponding results produced by the developed software framework. The goal of the report is, that with this information APS (together with INL) should be able to identify where more detailed data and more accurate model assumptions are necessary to reproduce all driving physical and economic phenomena in order to capture enough complexity of the reality to allow APS to use the results for their strategic decisions. The N-R HES software framework started being developed at INL two years ago [ref]. The framework has reached some level of maturity so that it can be applied to more than simple demonstration cases, e.g. real industry problems. Nevertheless, more capabilities are constantly added to accommodate the special needs of these challenging real life problems. The N-R HES framework is built on top of the RAVEN code [ref] and uses it as driver and workflow manager for all calculations. The framework has specifically been developed for the economic assessment of N-R HES systems. There are four main cornerstones of the N-R HES simulation framework: 1) generation of stochastic time series, 2) a probabilistic analysis and optimization set of algorithms available in RAVEN, 3) a set of models for representation of the physical behavior of N-R HES, and 4) a RAVEN plug-in that maps physical performance into economic performance called CashFlow. Within this framework, a broad spectrum of questions related to N-R HES can be addressed. One of the challenges currently of high interest is that the increasing penetration of variable renewables is altering the profile of the net demand (demand after removing all non curtailable renewable energy sources), with which the other generators on the grid have to cope. The N-R HES software framework is capable to analyze the potential feasibility of mitigating the resultant volatility in the net electricity demand. One possible solution to that problem currently intensively studied by the energy industry is adding stabilizing loads to the grid. These loads can be external industrial processes that are able to ramp production up and down quickly or adding variable internal loads that will lift the base load of the power plant. The latter is a possible solution currently studied by APS. APS if currently anticipating several challenges that will likely arise in the near future. One of them is, as mentioned, coping with the rapid growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources put on the grid. Although APS can sell its electricity for a fixed retail price to cover the local demand first, it also sells electricity in excess of the local demand at the Palo Verde energy hub. Due to the growing VRE penetration, the Palo Verde hub electricity spot price is negative more and more frequently. To mitigate this price volatility, APS is seeking to add more base load, so that the quantity of excess energy to be sold for prices potentially less than the internal retail price or even negative prices at the hub is reduced. A second challenge APS is facing is that their cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG) will expire soon and a renewal can only be done for a significantly higher price of the water. Therefore, APS is also seeking for alternative sources for their cooling water. An opportunity currently under investigation is to pump a limited quantity of brackish water from the regional ground water. Although much cheaper than the water from the new SROG contract, the salinity of the brackish water is so high that a blend of brackish and SROG water would need additional treatment to improve its quality for use in the cooling towers. An on-site reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant is envisaged to reduce the salinity to an acceptable level. This report investigates the economic impact of such an RO plant. As one can see, the RO plant would help with both problems APS is facing: First, it would rise the APS base load helping to mitigate VRE induced hub price volatility. From this perspective, the RO plant can be seen as a stabilizing load on the grid as would be any other industrial process. Second, the RO’s goods, e.g. the clean water produced can be used by APS itself for a (hopefully) lower cost than 100% SROG water would be. The report will first describe the APS water procurement strategy in detail and lay out the possible alternative scenarios studied in this document. This is covered in Chapter 2. Next, in Chapter 3, the APS case model developed within the N-R HES software framework is described. This chapter includes also a description of the needed framework developments to accommodate the APS study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Models for interrupted monitoring of a stochastic process

As computers are added to the cockpit, the pilot's job is changing from of manually flying the aircraft, to one of supervising computers which are doing navigation, guidance and energy management calculations as well as automatically flying the aircraft. In this supervisorial role the pilot must divide his attention between monitoring the aircraft's performance and giving commands to the computer. Normative strategies are developed for tasks where the pilot must interrupt his monitoring of a stochastic process in order to attend to other duties. Results are given as to how characteristics of the stochastic process and the other tasks affect the optimal strategies.

Palmer, E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Interrupted monitoring of a stochastic process

Normative strategies are developed for tasks where the pilot must interrupt his monitoring of a stochastic process in order to attend to other duties. Results are given as to how characteristics of the stochastic process and the other tasks affect the optimal strategies. The optimum strategy is also compared to the strategies used by subjects in a pilot experiment.

Palmer, E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global optimization methods for engineering design

The problem is to find a global minimum for the Problem P. Necessary and sufficient conditions are available for local optimality. However, global solution can be assured only under the assumption of convexity of the problem. If the constraint set S is compact and the cost function is continuous on it, existence of a global minimum is guaranteed. However, in view of the fact that no global optimality conditions are available, a global solution can be found only by an exhaustive search to satisfy Inequality. The exhaustive search can be organized in such a way that the entire design space need not be searched for the solution. This way the computational burden is reduced somewhat. It is concluded that zooming algorithm for global optimizations appears to be a good alternative to stochastic methods. More testing is needed; a general, robust, and efficient local minimizer is required. IDESIGN was used in all numerical calculations which is based on a sequential quadratic programming algorithm, and since feasible set keeps on shrinking, a good algorithm to find an initial feasible point is required. Such algorithms need to be developed and evaluated.

Arora, Jasbir S.↗