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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Statistical Analysis of Tank 5 Floor Sample Results (U)

Sampling has been completed for the characterization of the residual material on the floor of Tank 5 in the F-Area Tank Farm at the Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, SC. The sampling was performed by Savannah River Remediation (SRR) LLC using a stratified random sampling plan with volume-proportional compositing. The plan consisted of partitioning the residual material on the floor of Tank 5 into three non-overlapping strata: two strata enclosed accumulations, and a third stratum consisted of a thin layer of material outside the regions of the two accumulations. Each of three composite samples was constructed from five primary sample locations of residual material on the floor of Tank 5. Three of the primary samples were obtained from the stratum containing the thin layer of material, and one primary sample was obtained from each of the two strata containing an accumulation. This report documents the statistical analyses of the analytical results for the composite samples. The objective of the analysis is to determine the mean concentrations and upper 95% confidence (UCL95) bounds for the mean concentrations for a set of analytes in the tank residuals. The statistical procedures employed in the analyses were consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) technical guidance by Singh and others [2010]. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) measured the sample bulk density, nonvolatile beta, gross alpha, and the radionuclide1, elemental, and chemical concentrations three times for each of the composite samples. The analyte concentration data were partitioned into three separate groups for further analysis: analytes with every measurement above their minimum detectable concentrations (MDCs), analytes with no measurements above their MDCs, and analytes with a mixture of some measurement results above and below their MDCs. The means, standard deviations, and UCL95s were computed for the analytes in the two groups that had at least some measurements above their MDCs. The identification of distributions and the selection of UCL95 procedures generally followed the protocol in Singh, Armbya, and Singh [2010]. When all of an analyte's measurements lie below their MDCs, only a summary of the MDCs can be provided. The measurement results reported by SRNL are listed, and the results of this analysis are reported. The data were generally found to follow a normal distribution, and to be homogenous across composite samples.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Application of a Statistical Downscaling Process to Derive 21 st Century River Flow Predictions Using a Global Climate Simulation

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20 th century, and the application of the same correction to 21 st century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dynamics and Statistical Mechanics of Rotating and non-Rotating Vortical Flows

Three projects were analyzed with the overall aim of developing a computational/analytical model for estimating values of the energy, angular momentum, enstrophy and total variation of fluid height at phase transitions between disordered and self-organized flow states in planetary atmospheres. It is believed that these transitions in equilibrium statistical mechanics models play a role in the construction of large-scale, stable structures including super-rotation in the Venusian atmosphere and the formation of the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. Exact solutions of the spherical energy-enstrophy models for rotating planetary atmospheres by Kac's method of steepest descent predicted phase transitions to super-rotating solid-body flows at high energy to enstrophy ratio for all planetary spins and to sub-rotating modes if the planetary spin is large enough. These canonical statistical ensembles are well-defined for the long-range energy interactions that arise from 2D fluid flows on compact oriented manifolds such as the surface of the sphere and torus. This is because in Fourier space available through Hodge theory, the energy terms are exactly diagonalizable and hence has zero range, leading to well-defined heat baths.

Spherical Geometry↗
DOE OSTI2014

Lightweight and Statistical Techniques for Petascale PetaScale Debugging

This project investigated novel techniques for debugging scientific applications on petascale architectures. In particular, we developed lightweight tools that narrow the problem space when bugs are encountered. We also developed techniques that either limit the number of tasks and the code regions to which a developer must apply a traditional debugger or that apply statistical techniques to provide direct suggestions of the location and type of error. We extend previous work on the Stack Trace Analysis Tool (STAT), that has already demonstrated scalability to over one hundred thousand MPI tasks. We also extended statistical techniques developed to isolate programming errors in widely used sequential or threaded applications in the Cooperative Bug Isolation (CBI) project to large scale parallel applications. Overall, our research substantially improved productivity on petascale platforms through a tool set for debugging that complements existing commercial tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Composition Driven, Statistical Review of Cast Stone Screening Matrix Results

Recent studies in support of Cast Stone development for the Hanford Site were designed to screen the effects of mix components on properties and performance of the waste form. Dry blend components, including portland cement, blast furnace slag, and Class F fly ash, sourced from both southeastern and northwestern suppliers, were included in the screening matrix. Multiple decontaminated salt solutions (simulated) were combined with the dry blend components at various liquid to solid ratios following a statistically designed matrix of compositions. Properties of the resulting mixes and performance of the cured materials were then measured and related to the dry blend components and salt solutions that were used for each mix. At the conclusion of the screening matrix work, SRNL felt that additional insight into the study might be obtained by relating the properties and performance of the materials to the composition of each Cast Stone mix, as opposed to just the dry blend – salt solution combination. This memorandum provides the results of a statistically driven review of the screening matrix data as a function of the composition of each mix. It is meant to augment the results obtained by reviewing the screening matrix data as a function of the dry blend and salt solution combination.

Edwards, T. B.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistics of particle time-temperature histories

Particles in non-isothermal turbulent flow are subject to a stochastic environment that produces a distribution of particle time-temperature histories. This distribution is a function of the dispersion of the non-isothermal (continuous) gas phase and the distribution of particles relative to that gas phase. In this work we extend the one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model to predict the joint dispersion of a dispersed particle phase and a continuous phase. The ODT model predicts the turbulent evolution of continuous scalar fields with a model for the cascade of fluctuations to smaller scales (the ‘triplet map’) at a rate that is a function of the fully resolved one-dimensional velocity field. Stochastic triplet maps also drive Lagrangian particle dispersion with finite Stokes numbers including inertial and eddy trajectory-crossing effects included. Two distinct approaches to this coupling between triplet maps and particle dispersion are developed and implemented along with a hybrid approach. An ‘instantaneous’ particle displacement model matches the tracer particle limit and provides an accurate description of particle dispersion. A ‘continuous’ particle displacement model translates triplet maps into a continuous velocity field to which particles respond. Particles can alter the turbulence, and modifications to the stochastic rate expression are developed for two-way coupling between particles and the continuous phase. Each aspect of model development is evaluated in canonical flows (homogeneous turbulence, free-shear flows and wall-bounded flows) for which quality measurements are available. ODT simulations of non-isothermal flows provide statistics for particle heating. These simulations show the significance of accurately predicting the joint statistics of particle and fluid dispersion. Inhomogeneous turbulence coupled with the influence of the mean flow fields on particles of varying properties alters particle dispersion. The joint particle-temperature dispersion leads to a distribution of temperature histories predicted by the ODT. Predictions are shown for the lower moments and the full distributions of the particle positions, particle-observed gas temperatures and particle temperatures. An analysis of the time scales affecting particle-temperature interactions covers Lagrangian integral time scales based on temperature autocorrelations, rates of temperature change associated with particle motion relative to the temperature field and rates of diffusional change of temperatures. These latter two time scales have not been investigated previously; they are shown to be strongly intermittent having peaked distributions with long tails. The logarithm of the absolute value of these time scales exhibits a distribution closer to normal.

Hewson, John C.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predicting Weak Lensing Statistics from Halo Mass Reconstructions (Final Paper)

As dark matter does not absorb or emit light, its distribution in the universe must be inferred through indirect effects such as the gravitational lensing of distant galaxies. While most sources are only weakly lensed, the systematic alignment of background galaxies around a foreground lens can constrain the mass of the lens which is largely in the form of dark matter. In this paper, I have implemented a framework to reconstruct all of the mass along lines of sight using a best-case dark matter halo model in which the halo mass is known. This framework is then used to make predictions of the weak lensing of 3,240 generated source galaxies through a 324 arcmin 2 field of the Millennium Simulation. The lensed source ellipticities are characterized by the ellipticity-ellipticity and galaxy-mass correlation functions and compared to the same statistic for the intrinsic and ray-traced ellipticities. In the ellipticity-ellipticity correlation function, I and that the framework systematically under predicts the shear power by an average factor of 2.2 and fails to capture correlation from dark matter structure at scales larger than 1 arcminute. The model predicted galaxy-mass correlation function is in agreement with the ray-traced statistic from scales 0.2 to 0.7 arcminutes, but systematically underpredicts shear power at scales larger than 0.7 arcminutes by an average factor of 1.2. Optimization of the framework code has reduced the mean CPU time per lensing prediction by 70% to 24 ± 5 ms. Physical and computational shortcomings of the framework are discussed, as well as potential improvements for upcoming work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Doppler Lidar Vertical Velocity Statistics Value-Added Product

Accurate height-resolved measurements of higher-order statistical moments of vertical velocity fluctuations are crucial for improved understanding of turbulent mixing and diffusion, convective initiation, and cloud life cycles. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility operates coherent Doppler lidar systems at several sites around the globe. These instruments provide measurements of clear-air vertical velocity profiles in the lower troposphere with a nominal temporal resolution of 1 sec and height resolution of 30 m. The purpose of the Doppler lidar vertical velocity statistics (DLWSTATS) value-added product (VAP) is to produce height- and time-resolved estimates of vertical velocity variance, skewness, and kurtosis from these raw measurements. The VAP also produces estimates of cloud properties, including cloud-base height (CBH), cloud frequency, cloud-base vertical velocity, and cloud-base updraft fraction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evolution of the Field of Statistics at Los Alamos

Through years of technological improvements, cultural change, advances in statistical theory, revisions of federal government structure and policies, Laboratory re-organizations, offce re-locations, and so on, the practice of statistics at Los Alamos has evolved from its origins in the early 1950s, with a handful of statisticians working in LASL group T-1, to present-day group CCS-6. This report chronicles that history.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Identification of Chemical Attribution Signatures of Fentanyl Syntheses Using Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Orthogonal Analytical Data

Attribution of the origin of an illicit drug relies on identification of compounds indicative of its clandestine production and is a key component of many modern forensic investigations. The results of these studies can yield detailed information on method of manufacture, starting material source, and final product - all critical forensic evidence. In the present work, chemical attribution signatures (CAS) associated with the synthesis of the analgesic fentanyl, N-(1-phenylethylpiperidin-4-yl)-N-phenylpropanamide, were investigated. Six synthesis methods, all previously published fentanyl synthetic routes or hybrid versions thereof, were studied in an effort to identify and classify route-specific signatures. 160 distinct compounds and inorganic species were identified using gas and liquid chromatographies combined with mass spectrometric methods (GC-MS and LCMS/ MS-TOF) in conjunction with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS). The complexity of the resultant data matrix urged the use of multivariate statistical analysis. Using partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), 87 route-specific CAS were classified and a statistical model capable of predicting the method of fentanyl synthesis was validated and tested against CAS profiles from crude fentanyl products deposited and later extracted from two operationally relevant surfaces: stainless steel and vinyl tile. This work provides the most detailed fentanyl CAS investigation to date by using orthogonal mass spectral data to identify CAS of forensic significance for illicit drug detection, profiling, and attribution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2 -explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Scientific/Technical Report: Integrating Advanced Software and Statistical Methods for Spectroscopic Dark Energy Surveys

“Dark energy” is a phenomenon of unknown origin that pervades the vacuum of space and is causing the present-day expansion of the universe to accelerate. Understanding the nature of dark energy is one of the most fundamental challenges to modern physics, having the potential to revolutionize our theories of both gravity and elementary particle physics. The effects of dark energy are currently only accessible to astronomical survey experiments that probe large volumes of the cosmos. One of the most powerful forms of experiment for studying dark energy is the cosmological “redshift survey,” which maps the large-scale structure of the universe as traced by the positions of galaxies, quasars, and intergalactic hydrogen clouds. The signature of dark energy and other cosmological parameters is imprinted on this large-scale structure as it evolves over cosmic time. This project focused on maximizing the accurate extraction of information from redshift surveys by improving the algorithms and statistics applied across the chain of inference from raw pixels to high-level cosmological parameter estimation. At the low level, this project developed new techniques for calibrating and analyzing high-background, low signal-to-noise data from astronomical survey spectrographs to provide reliable three-dimensional maps of galaxies and quasars throughout the universe. At the high level, this project developed new statistical frameworks for understanding the completeness of redshift surveys and the underlying demographics of the galaxies that they observe, thereby allowing for a more accurate connection between survey results and theoretical models. This work contributes to maximizing the scientific reach of existing and planned surveys, and opens new potential feasibility for more ambitious surveys in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Photon statistics in attenuators

We derive expressions for the transmission photon statistics of N photons irradiating one or multiple attenuators. The composition of the attenuators themselves may be statistically varying, which is a model for a paramagnetic material in which atoms of di erent spin states absorb di erently. Note that classical electromagnetic radiation emitted by a single-mode laser is best described by Glauber coherent states, so assigning exactly N photons to this state is strictly not correct: Glauber states are superpositions of number states, so the number of incoming photons itself is a stochastic variable. We neglect all that.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical Tests for Convergence in Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations

This report describes methods for using statistical tests to automatically determine convergence of Monte Carlo (MC) iterations in criticality calculations. The methods described herein are intended to replace the traditional approach used for the past 60 years: make a trial run; determine convergence based on plots of k-effective and Shannon entropy vs cycle; adjust the input parameters for controlling the iterations; make a final run to obtain results and statistics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965

This project quantified the changes in the mean climate and climate variability over the last 140 years, with emphasis on the changes in the tails of the probability distributions of daily variations, i.e. changes in extreme weather statistics. We were interested in not just the mean shifts of the distributions under climate change but also changes in the variance and higher statistical moments such as skewness and kurtosis. The project focused on two important aspects of the probability density functions (pdfs) of daily anomalies and their estimations from observational records of limited length. The first is that the pdfs are not Gaussian but are distinctively skewed and heavy tailed. This has large implications for the probabilities of extreme values and for estimating those probabilities from limited records. It also motivated our second focus, to estimate the pdfs from the longest available global datasets based on instrumental observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Different Ways to Formulate the Statistical Theory of Fission Chains

We describe the statistical theory of fission chains and how different ways of formulating it are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

DRACO and Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics of Aging [Slides]

Topics covered include: Types of problems which DRACO (Multiphysics simulation) was designed to address; Tools from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics; Rare events (Extreme value statistics); Transients (Diverging time scales); and, Thresholds (Absorbing phase transitions).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗