Results for “Statistical simulation” — Page 48

NASA NTRS1989

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗

NASA NTRS2008

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radiative interactions in multi-dimensional chemically reacting flows using Monte Carlo simulations

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is applied to analyze radiative heat transfer in nongray gases. The nongray model employed is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. The amount and transfer of the emitted radiative energy in a finite volume element within a medium are considered in an exact manner. The spectral correlation between transmittances of two different segments of the same path in a medium makes the statistical relationship different from the conventional relationship, which only provides the non-correlated results for nongray methods is discussed. Validation of the Monte Carlo formulations is conducted by comparing results of this method of other solutions. In order to further establish the validity of the MCM, a relatively simple problem of radiative interactions in laminar parallel plate flows is considered. One-dimensional correlated Monte Carlo formulations are applied to investigate radiative heat transfer. The nongray Monte Carlo solutions are also obtained for the same problem and they also essentially match the available analytical solutions. the exact correlated and non-correlated Monte Carlo formulations are very complicated for multi-dimensional systems. However, by introducing the assumption of an infinitesimal volume element, the approximate correlated and non-correlated formulations are obtained which are much simpler than the exact formulations. Consideration of different problems and comparison of different solutions reveal that the approximate and exact correlated solutions agree very well, and so do the approximate and exact non-correlated solutions. However, the two non-correlated solutions have no physical meaning because they significantly differ from the correlated solutions. An accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer in any nongray and multi-dimensional system is possible by using the approximate correlated formulations. Radiative interactions are investigated in chemically reacting compressible flows of premixed hydrogen and air in an expanding nozzle. The governing equations are based on the fully elliptic Navier-Stokes equations. Chemical reaction mechanisms were described by a finite rate chemistry model. The correlated Monte Carlo method developed earlier was employed to simulate multi-dimensional radiative heat transfer. Results obtained demonstrate that radiative effects on the flowfield are minimal but radiative effects on the wall heat transfer are significant. Extensive parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of equivalence ratio, wall temperature, inlet flow temperature, and nozzle size on the radiative and conductive wall fluxes.

Liu, Jiwen↗

NASA NTRS1995

Simulation of rotor blade element turbulence

A piloted, motion-based simulation of Sikorsky's Black Hawk helicopter was used as a platform for the investigation of rotorcraft responses to vertical turbulence. By using an innovative temporal and geometrical distribution algorithm that preserved the statistical characteristics of the turbulence over the rotor disc, stochastic velocity components were applied at each of twenty blade-element stations. This model was implemented on NASA Ames' Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and ten test pilots were used to establish that the model created realistic cues. The objectives of this research included the establishment of a simulation-technology basis for future investigation into real-time turbulence modeling. This goal was achieved; our extensive additions to the rotor model added less than a 10 percent computational overhead. Using a VAX 9000 computer the entire simulation required a cycle time of less than 12 msec. Pilot opinion during this simulation was generally quite favorable. For low speed flight the consensus was that SORBET (acronym for title) was better than the conventional body-fixed model, which was used for comparison purposes, and was determined to be too violent (like a washboard). For high speed flight the pilots could not identify differences between these models. These opinions were something of a surprise because only the vertical turbulence component on the rotor system was implemented in SORBET. Because of the finite-element distribution of the inputs, induced outputs were observed in all translational and rotational axes. Extensive post-simulation spectral analyses of the SORBET model suggest that proper rotorcraft turbulence modeling requires that vertical atmospheric disturbances not be superimposed at the vehicle center of gravity but, rather, be input into the rotor system, where the rotor-to-body transfer function severely attenuates high frequency rotorcraft responses.

Mcfarland, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Direct Simulation of a Self-Similar Turbulent Mixing Layer

Three direct numerical simulations of incompressible turbulent plane mixing layers have been performed. All the simulations were initialized with the same two velocity fields obtained from a direct numerical simulation of a turbulent boundary layer with a momentum thickness Reynolds number of 300 computed by Spalart (J. Fluid Mech. 187, 61, 1988). In addition to a baseline case with no additional disturbances, two simulations were begun with two-dimensional disturbances of varying strength in addition to the boundary layer turbulence. After a development stage, the baseline case and the case with weaker additional two-dimensional disturbances evolve self-similarly, reaching visual thickness Reynolds numbers of up to 20 000. This self-similar period is characterized by a lack of large-scale organized pairings, a lack of streamwise vortices in the 'braid' regions, and scalar mixing that is characterized by 'marching' Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The case begun with strong additional two-dimensional disturbances only becomes approximately self-similar, but exhibits sustained organized large-scale pairings, clearly defined braid regions with streamwise vortices that span them, and scalar PDFs that are 'nonmarching.' It is also characterized by much more intense vertical velocity fluctuations than the other two cases. The statistics and structures in several experiments involving turbulent mixing layers are in better agreement with those of the simulations that do not exhibit organized pairings.

Rogers, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Instrumental and analytic techniques for separating protons from electrons in the cosmic ray flux

Techniques are being investigated to aid in distinguishing between electrons and the large background of interacting protons which simulate electron-induced electromagnetic cascades. For cosmic ray primaries, incident on the HECRE ionization spectrometer, statistical criteria are employed to test the cascade curves with the incident energy and starting point as free parameters. The physical significance of the distribution of apparent cascade starting points is being studied using Monte Carlo 100-GeV protons. The proposed use of a CsI detector module (totally-active and high Z) to further discriminate against protons is described.

Crannell, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1969

Analysis of a Multiprocessor Guidance Computer

The design of the next generation of spaceborne digital computers is described. It analyzes a possible multiprocessor computer configuration. For the analysis, a set of representative space computing tasks was abstracted from the Lunar Module Guidance Computer programs as executed during the lunar landing, from the Apollo program. This computer performs at this time about 24 concurrent functions, with iteration rates from 10 times per second to once every two seconds. These jobs were tabulated in a machine-independent form, and statistics of the overall job set were obtained. It was concluded, based on a comparison of simulation and Markov results, that the Markov process analysis is accurate in predicting overall trends and in configuration comparisons, but does not provide useful detailed information in specific situations. Using both types of analysis, it was determined that the job scheduling function is a critical one for efficiency of the multiprocessor. It is recommended that research into the area of automatic job scheduling be performed.

Maltach, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The effect of limiting aerodynamic and structural coupling in models of mistuned bladed disk vibration

A model has been developed for studying the effect of mistuning on bladed disk vibration which has the unique feature that the extent of aerodynamic and structural interaction which it simulates can be readily varied from full coupling of all blades on the disk to coupling of each blade with only its nearest neighbors. Simulations utilizing the resulting algorithm show that limited coupling models may be used to predict the statistical distribution of blade amplitudes that characterizes the mistuning effect, which in turn determines stage durability. This approach is used to study the effect of changing various system parameters on amplitude scatter. Gas density, the number of blades on the disk, disk stiffness, and the engine order of the excitation are considered. The results are used to draw some conclusions about how to improve laboratory tests and component design.

Basu, P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Context dependent anti-aliasing image reconstruction

Image Reconstruction has been mostly confined to context free linear processes; the traditional continuum interpretation of digital array data uses a linear interpolator with or without an enhancement filter. Here, anti-aliasing context dependent interpretation techniques are investigated for image reconstruction. Pattern classification is applied to each neighborhood to assign it a context class; a different interpolation/filter is applied to neighborhoods of differing context. It is shown how the context dependent interpolation is computed through ensemble average statistics using high resolution training imagery from which the lower resolution image array data is obtained (simulation). A quadratic least squares (LS) context-free image quality model is described from which the context dependent interpolation coefficients are derived. It is shown how ensembles of high-resolution images can be used to capture the a priori special character of different context classes. As a consequence, a priori information such as the translational invariance of edges along the edge direction, edge discontinuity, and the character of corners is captured and can be used to interpret image array data with greater spatial resolution than would be expected by the Nyquist limit. A Gibb-like artifact associated with this super-resolution is discussed. More realistic context dependent image quality models are needed and a suggestion is made for using a quality model which now is finding application in data compression.

Beaudet, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Numerical study of axial turbulent flow over long cylinders

The effects of transverse curvature are investigated by means of direct numerical simulations of turbulent axial flow over cylinders. Two cases of Reynolds number of about 3400 and layer-thickness-to-cylinder-radius ratios of 5 and 11 were simulated. All essential turbulence scales were resolved in both calculations, and a large number of turbulence statistics were computed. The results are compared with the plane channel results of Kim et al. (1987) and with experiments. With transverse curvature the skin friction coefficient increases and the turbulence statistics, when scaled with wall units, are lower than in the plane channel. The momentum equation provides a scaling that collapses the cylinder statistics, and allows the results to be interpreted in light of the plane channel flow. The azimuthal and radial length scales of the structures in the flow are of the order of the cylinder diameter. Boomerang-shaped structures with large spanwise length scales were observed in the flow.

Neves, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) onboard attitude determination using a Kalman filter

The Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) requires a highly accurate knowledge of its attitude to accomplish its mission. Propagation of the attitude state using gyro measurements is not sufficient to meet the accuracy requirements, and must be supplemented by a observer/compensation process to correct for dynamics and observation anomalies. The process of amending the attitude state utilizes a well known method, the discrete Kalman Filter. This study is a sensitivity analysis of the discrete Kalman Filter as implemented in the UARS Onboard Computer (OBC). The stability of the Kalman Filter used in the normal on-orbit control mode within the OBC, is investigated for the effects of corrupted observations and nonlinear errors. Also, a statistical analysis on the residuals of the Kalman Filter is performed. These analysis is based on simulations using the UARS Dynamics Simulator (UARSDSIM) and compared against attitude requirements as defined by General Electric (GE). An independent verification of expected accuracies is performed using the Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS).

Garrick, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1996

Simulation Study Using a New Type of Sample Variance

We evaluate with simulated data a new type of sample variance for the characterization of frequency stability. The new statistic (referred to as TOTALVAR and its square root TOTALDEV) is a better predictor of long-term frequency variations than the present sample Allan deviation. The statistical model uses the assumption that a time series of phase or frequency differences is wrapped (periodic) with overall frequency difference removed. We find that the variability at long averaging times is reduced considerably for the five models of power-law noise commonly encountered with frequency standards and oscillators.

Howe, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Defect Distributions on the Reliability of Structural Materials

The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic model to estimate the fatigue life of gas turbine disks made of powder superalloy metals. Such metals are known to have high strength and ductility under extremely high temperatures and known to have high fatigue lives. However, despite the high quality controls instituted during metal processing, sufficiently high numbers of ceramic inclusions materialize within the metal matrix creating weak links that lead to reduced fatigue lives. To study the effect of such ceramic inclusions on the fatigue life of gas turbine disks, an experimental program has been initiated at the NASA Glenn Research. In this phase of the study, a statistical analysis of the test results is undertaken which served as the basis of the probabilistic simulation model. The study is a part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project.

Ghosn, Michel J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Modeling for Ultrasonic Health Monitoring of Foams with Embedded Sensors

In this report analytical and numerical methods are proposed to estimate the effective elastic properties of regular and random open-cell foams. The methods are based on the principle of minimum energy and on structural beam models. The analytical solutions are obtained using symbolic processing software. The microstructure of the random foam is simulated using Voronoi tessellation together with a rate-dependent random close-packing algorithm. The statistics of the geometrical properties of random foams corresponding to different packing fractions have been studied. The effects of the packing fraction on elastic properties of the foams have been investigated by decomposing the compliance into bending and axial compliance components. It is shown that the bending compliance increases and the axial compliance decreases when the packing fraction increases. Keywords: Foam; Elastic properties; Finite element; Randomness

Wang, L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Noise Radiation From a Leading-Edge Slat

This paper extends our previous computations of unsteady flow within the slat cove region of a multi-element high-lift airfoil configuration, which showed that both statistical and structural aspects of the experimentally observed unsteady flow behavior can be captured via 3D simulations over a computational domain of narrow spanwise extent. Although such narrow domain simulation can account for the spanwise decorrelation of the slat cove fluctuations, the resulting database cannot be applied towards acoustic predictions of the slat without invoking additional approximations to synthesize the fluctuation field over the rest of the span. This deficiency is partially alleviated in the present work by increasing the spanwise extent of the computational domain from 37.3% of the slat chord to nearly 226% (i.e., 15% of the model span). The simulation database is used to verify consistency with previous computational results and, then, to develop predictions of the far-field noise radiation in conjunction with a frequency-domain Ffowcs-Williams Hawkings solver.

Lockard, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

User Selection Criteria of Airspace Designs in Flexible Airspace Management

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Lee, Hwasoo E.↗