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At least 865 records · Page 48

Cold dark matter. 2: Spatial and velocity statistics

We examine high-resolution gravitational N-body simulations of the omega = 1 cold dark matter (CDM) model in order to determine whether there is any normalization of the initial density fluctuation spectrum that yields acceptable results for galaxy clustering and velocities. Dense dark matter halos in the evolved mass distribution are identified with luminous galaxies; the most massive halos are also considered as sites for galaxy groups, with a range of possibilities explored for the group mass-to-light ratios. We verify the earlier conclusions of White et al. (1987) for the low-amplitude (high-bias) CDM model-the galaxy correlation function is marginally acceptable but that there are too many galaxies. We also show that the peak biasing method does not accurately reproduce the results obtained using dense halos identified in the simulations themselves. The Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) anisotropy implies a higher normalization, resulting in problems with excessive pairwise galaxy velocity dispersion unless a strong velocity bias is present. Although we confirm the strong velocity bias of halos reported by Couchman & Carlberg (1992), we show that the galaxy motions are still too large on small scales. We find no amplitude for which the CDM model can reconcile simultaneously and galaxy correlation function, the low pairwise velocity dispersion, and the richness distribution of groups and clusters. With the normalization implied by COBE, the CDM spectrum has too much power on small scales if omega = 1.

Gelb, James M.↗

The Universe at Moderate Redshift

The report covers the work done in the past year and a wide range of fields including properties of clusters of galaxies; topological properties of galaxy distributions in terms of galaxy types; patterns of gravitational nonlinear clustering process; development of a ray tracing algorithm to study the gravitational lensing phenomenon by galaxies, clusters and large-scale structure, one of whose applications being the effects of weak gravitational lensing by large-scale structure on the determination of q(0); the origin of magnetic fields on the galactic and cluster scales; the topological properties of Ly(alpha) clouds the Ly(alpha) optical depth distribution; clustering properties of Ly(alpha) clouds; and a determination (lower bound) of Omega(b) based on the observed Ly(alpha) forest flux distribution. In the coming year, we plan to continue the investigation of Ly(alpha) clouds using larger dynamic range (about a factor of two) and better simulations (with more input physics included) than what we have now. We will study the properties of galaxies on 1 - 100h(sup -1) Mpc scales using our state-of-the-art large scale galaxy formation simulations of various cosmological models, which will have a resolution about a factor of 5 (in each dimension) better than our current, best simulations. We will plan to study the properties of X-ray clusters using unprecedented, very high dynamic range (20,000) simulations which will enable us to resolve the cores of clusters while keeping the simulation volume sufficiently large to ensure a statistically fair sample of the objects of interest. The details of the last year's works are now described.

Cen, Renyue↗

Global MHD Simulation of Mesoscale Structures at the Magnetospheric Boundary

We have continued our modeling of the solar wind/magnetosphere interaction for steady solar Wind conditions by carrying out a series of 3 D global magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) simulations using a set of predetermined solar wind parameters as input to the code. With the results from the simulations that we ran last year for two other dipole tilts (0 and 35 deg), we have 36 data sets to study the dynamics of mesoscale structures at the magnetospheric boundary. We have started the analysis of these runs to investigate geometrical properties and the topology of the magnetic and electric fields for the different solar wind regimes and orientations considered. Preliminary results indicate that merging sites are consistent with patterns proposed for antiparallel merging at the dayside magnetopause. Another goal of this investigation is to establish the displacement of the cusp region as a function of the solar wind dynamic pressure, IMF direction and magnetic field dipole tilt. One of the difficulties of that study is to locate precisely the cusp in the simulation results. We have used several case studies to establish a series of criteria in to permit a routine identification of that location. We need now to process the rest of the simulation results using these criteria to obtain statistical results.

Berchem, Jean↗

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗

Polysilicon Gate Enhancement of the Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Fluctuations in Sub-100 nm MOSFET's with Ultrathin Gate Oxide

In this paper, we investigate various aspects of the polysilicon gate influence on the random dopant induced threshold voltage fluctuations in sub-100 nm MOSFET's with ultrathin gate oxides. The study is done by using an efficient statistical three-dimensional (3-D) "atomistic" simulation technique described else-where. MOSFET's with uniform channel doping and with low doped epitaxial channels have been investigated. The simulations reveal that even in devices with a single crystal gate the gate depletion and the random dopants in it are responsible for a substantial fraction of the threshold voltage fluctuations when the gate oxide is scaled-in the range of 1-2 nm. Simulation experiments have been used in order to separate the enhancement in the threshold voltage fluctuations due to an effective increase in the oxide thickness associated with the gate depletion from the direct influence of the random dopants in the gate depletion layer. The results of the experiments show that the both factors contribute to the enhancement of the threshold voltage fluctuations, but the effective increase in the oxide-thickness has a dominant effect in the investigated range of devices. Simulations illustrating the effect or the polysilicon grain boundaries on the threshold voltage variation are also presented.

Asenov, Asen↗

Sensor Based Engine Life Calculation: A Probabilistic Perspective

It is generally known that an engine component will accumulate damage (life usage) during its lifetime of use in a harsh operating environment. The commonly used cycle count for engine component usage monitoring has an inherent range of uncertainty which can be overly costly or potentially less safe from an operational standpoint. With the advance of computer technology, engine operation modeling, and the understanding of damage accumulation physics, it is possible (and desirable) to use the available sensor information to make a more accurate assessment of engine component usage. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to quantify the effects of engine operating parameter uncertainties on the thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life of a selected engine part. A closed-loop engine simulation with a TMF life model is used to calculate the life consumption of different mission cycles. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to generate the statistical life usage profile for different operating assumptions. The probabilities of failure of different operating conditions are compared to illustrate the importance of the engine component life calculation using sensor information. The results of this study clearly show that a sensor-based life cycle calculation can greatly reduce the risk of component failure as well as extend on-wing component life by avoiding unnecessary maintenance actions.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

Superposed Epoch Analysis of Ring Current Geoeffectiveness Related to Solar Wind and Plasma Sheet Drivers

The goal of that proposal was to examine the relationship between solar wind drivers and ring current dynamics through data analysis and numerical simulations. The data analysis study was a statistical examination (via superposed epoch analyses) of a solar cycle's worth of storm data. Solar wind data, geophysical indices, and geosynchronous plasma data were collected for every time period with Dst< -50 nT from 1989 through 2002, and the storm list now exceeds 400 entries. This work was first conducted by a summer undergraduate student, Mr. John Vann (University of Kansas), with funding from the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program. It was then continued by a University of Michigan graduate student, Mr. Jichun Zhang. Mr. Zhang is now in his fourth year at U-M and is progressing very well toward a PhD in space science. His dissertation will be based on his data analysis and modeling efforts using this geomagnetic storm database. The results of the data analysis study have been the focus of several conference presentations, and the first manuscript has just been published. Two additional papers are presently being prepared, one on average (superposed) solar wind features for various storm subsets (e.g., intense storms at solar maximum), and another on geosynchronous plasma features for these same storm subsets. The latter result was highlighted by the TR&T program director in his presentation at the COSPAR meeting this summer.

Liemohm, M. W.↗

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor currently under development to enhance real-time hurricane ocean surface wind observations. HIRAD builds on the capabilities of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which now operates on NOAA P-3, G-4, and AFRC C-130 aircraft. Unlike the SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 times the aircraft altitude). To demonstrate potential improvement in the measurement of peak hurricane winds, we present a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing platforms (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a high-resolution (approximately 1.7 km) numerical model. Simulated retrieval errors due to both instrument noise as well as model function accuracy are considered over the expected range of incidence angles, wind speeds and rain rates. Based on numerous simulated flight patterns and data source combinations, statistics are developed to describe relationships between the observed and true (from the model s perspective) peak wind speed. These results have implications for improving the estimation of hurricane intensity (as defined by the peak sustained wind anywhere in the storm), which may often go un-observed due to sampling limitations.

Uhlhorn, Eric↗

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗

Construction of Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-2) Vehicle Monte Carlo Splashdown Footprints for Use in Range Safety and Recovery Planning

Overview of Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) SFDT-2 ( Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test-2) flight profile; Description of Monte Carlo flight dynamics simulations performed; Modeling and uncertainties; Results with statistical prediction of test vehicle splashdown location; Use of Monte Carlo results for range safety and recovery planning.

Strauss, Bill↗

Using Time Series Data Products to Support ASHRAE’s Historic and Future Climate Data Needs through NASA’s POWER Web Services

To address the data needs for resilience and sustainability of building systems within ASHRAE, the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data on a long-term, global scale. Solar data from several NASA projects and meteorological data from NASA assimilation models have been reformatted and disseminated to the public via a user friendly web GIS-enabled based data portal (https://power.larc.nasa.gov) in selectable data formats, immediately amenable to key industry wide decision support tools such as EnergyPlus. Time series of potential climate conditions from downscaled climate simulations are being made available for similar statistics and formats. An emphasis is placed upon obtaining and utilizing time series data to conduct analysis of building system performance for current and planning building systems for energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation has the learning following learning objectives for the ASHRAE community: 1) Learn how NASA POWER’s web service suite can provide supplementary solar and surface meteorological data parameters, including a discussion of uncertainty. 2) Learn how downscaled climate scenario information can be provided to evaluate potential future requirements. The presentation is part of a forum entitled, "Weather Data for Large-Scale Building Energy Modeling".

time series↗

ComStock: Commercial Building Stock Energy Consumption Dataset

The commercial building sector stock model, or ComStock, is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States.

building↗

Examining the Feasibility of Identifying Tau Neutrino Charged Current Events in the DUNE Far Detector

Neutrinos began as theoretical, massless particles, and since their first detection they have continued to be the subject of various experiments. One such experiment is DUNE, which is a long baseline neutrino experiment with the goal of studying neutrino properties, such as neutrino oscillation parameters. In this work, two projects were completed, one dealing with the hardware of DUNE and the other dealing with neutrino simulations. For the hardware project, we designed a quality control method for testing adaptor boards which make up part of the Far Detector circuit boards. This method was completed and prototyped, however was not implemented as planned due to funding changes. For the simulation project, we simulated ντ , νµ, and νe CC interactions using two simulation methods (stand alone GENIE and a full detector simulation) in order to begin to understand what a ντ CC event would look like in the Far Detector and create an initial list of kinematic properties that can be used for this purpose. We found that there is not a complete understanding of what is occurring in the full detector simulation. We also found that there is promise in using kinematic properties to be able to differentiate ντ CC events, however properties beyond those covered here, as well as a more accurate simulation, will be required for any definitive statistical statements.

Choate, Sarah↗

Hydrogen Dispersion Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring

Studying hydrogen dispersion is crucial for ensuring the safe and effective deployment of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive CFD modeling framework for simulating hydrogen dispersion at a real-world hydrogen production, storage, and utilization facility. Utilizing the Hydrogen Research Facility under the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus, controlled hydrogen releases at 27 kg-H2/hr were simulated. The model incorporated site-specific atmospheric conditions, including hourly wind speeds and temperatures recorded between 8 AM and 8 PM from October to December 2023. To reduce computational demands, a statistical reduction technique was applied to condense the dataset to 100 representative scenarios, validated by statistical tests for wind speeds and power law coefficients. Simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrated that wind speed substantially influences hydrogen dispersion, with low wind conditions forming concentrated clouds and higher wind speeds stretching the plume. Additionally, clustering analysis informed optimal sensor placement at various elevations with up to 10 sensor locations on each elevation. This framework offers a robust approach for understanding hydrogen behavior in ambient conditions and informing detection strategies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

ATOMIC Simulations and Experimental Data for CaCO3 Mixtures

This data consists of simulations and experimental measurements of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The simulations are produced by ATOMIC, a general purpose plasma modeling and kinetics code that has been designed to compute emission (or absorption) spectra from plasmas [1] and are used to develop a statistical characterization of matrix effects. Our overall suite of simulations includes contains several sets of simulations: training and validation sets of simulations for three and four element mixtures of calcium, carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen (included to account for atmosphere) along with simulations of the individual elements. The 4-element simulations include the mixture of all four elements mentioned and for each of the four individual elements. The 3-element simulations include output for the mixture of calcium, carbon, oxygen and for these three individual elements. The training data were produced using a 600-run design, shown in Figure 1, that varies input parameters temperature (T), electron density (Ne), and proportion of the elements calcium, carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen (Ca; C; O; N) for the 4 element output. The 3-element output includes all parameters except for the proportion of nitrogen. The element proportions (all the variables but T and Ne) sum to one and are unused in the single-element simulations. The validation data was produced with a 80-run design shown in Figure 2. The training and validation simulation outputs for the 4-element simulations for the mixture and for the single element calcium are shown as sample simulations in Figures 3 and 4 respectively. The simulations produce spectra over a range of 190nm - 950nm that roughly mimics the range collected by the SciAps Z-300 LIBS instrument that was used for the experimental data. The measured spectra for a CaCO3 (which may include contribution from Earth's atmosphere) in the experiment is shown in in Figure 5. All files are kept in directories whose names indicate the elemental composition (CaCO3, Ca, C, O, or N), number of elements (3 or 4), and purpose (training, which is not labeled in the file name, or validation) with file names numbered to indicate the line in the design files used to produce the simulation. The designs are provided as text files with names indicating their purpose. The experimental data is provided as a CSV file. [1] J Colgan, EJ Judge, DP Kilcrease, and JE Barefield II. Ab-initio modeling of an iron laser-induced plasma: Comparison between theoretical and experimental atomic emission spectra. Spectrochimica Acta Part B: Atomic Spectroscopy, 97:65{73}, 2014.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Power and Wind Shear Implications of Large Wind Turbine Scenarios in the US Central Plains

Continued growth of wind turbine physical dimensions is examined in terms of the implications for wind speed, power and shear across the rotor plane. High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to generate statistics of wind speed profiles for scenarios of current and future wind turbines. The nine-month simulations, focused on the eastern Central Plains, show that the power scales broadly as expected with the increase in rotor diameter (D) and wind speeds at hub-height (H). Increasing wind turbine dimensions from current values (approximately H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to those of the new International Energy Agency reference wind turbine (H = 150 m, D = 240 m), the power across the rotor plane increases 7.1 times. The mean domain-wide wind shear exponent (α) decreases from 0.21 (H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to 0.19 for the largest wind turbine scenario considered (H = 168 m, D = 248 m) and the frequency of extreme positive shear (α > 0.2) declines from 48% to 38% of 10-min periods. Thus, deployment of larger wind turbines potentially yields considerable net benefits for both the wind resource and reductions in fatigue loading related to vertical shear.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Automated identification and calculation of prompt effects in kinetic mechanisms using statistical models

The kinetics of prompt dissociation involves rovibrationally excited species (generally formed by exothermic reactions) which may dissociate or isomerize prior to thermalization via collisions with the bath gas. Treating such rovibrationally excited species (so-called "hot" species) with standard kinetic phenomenology may result in incorrect macroscopic representation of their reactivity. Here this work presents the first fully automated methodology for the calculation of prompt effects of a chosen species in a kinetic mechanism, including (i) reaction selection; (ii) theoretical calculation of rate constants and prompt branching fractions; and (iii) final rate constant fitting. The energy partition between hot fragments is estimated using a variety of statistical models, including a new physically sound microcanonical statistical model based on the rovibrational density of states of the fragments. The methodology is validated against literature data for the prompt dissociations of HCO and C 3 H 7 radicals. The microcanonical statistical model is in better agreement with trajectory simulations for larger species and is thus applicable for practical systems that typically involve large molecules, for which direct dynamics calculations are impractical. The automated workflow is applied to the evaluation of the effects of prompt dissociation for two isomeric radicals C 4 H 7 1-3 (1-methylallyl) and C 4 H 7 1-4 (3-buten-1-yl). Twelve H-atom abstraction reactions are selected and the corresponding rate constants are computed with first principles theory. The microcanonical statistical model predicts that prompt dissociations of C 4 H 7 1-3 and C 4 H 7 1-4 are already significant at 1000K, resulting in differences of up to an order of magnitude at 2000K with respect to the phenomenological thermal rate constants. To illustrate the effects of prompt dissociation on simulations of experimental data, the calculated prompt rate constants are implemented in both CRECK and C3MechV3.3 kinetic mechanisms. Simulations of experimental flame data illustrate the noticeable impact of prompt dissociation kinetics on the high-temperature combustion reactivity of C 4 H 8 -1 and C 4 H 8 -2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation of Wind Profile Perturbations for Launch Vehicle Design

Ideally, a statistically representative sample of measured high-resolution wind profiles with wavelengths as small as tens of meters is required in design studies to establish aerodynamic load indicator dispersions and vehicle control system capability. At most potential launch sites, high- resolution wind profiles may not exist. Representative samples of Rawinsonde wind profiles to altitudes of 30 km are more likely to be available from the extensive network of measurement sites established for routine sampling in support of weather observing and forecasting activity. Such a sample, large enough to be statistically representative of relatively large wavelength perturbations, would be inadequate for launch vehicle design assessments because the Rawinsonde system accurately measures wind perturbations with wavelengths no smaller than 2000 m (1000 m altitude increment). The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Jimsphere wind profiles (150/month and seasonal 2 and 3.5-hr pairs) are the only adequate samples of high resolution profiles approx. 150 to 300 m effective resolution, but over-sampled at 25 m intervals) that have been used extensively for launch vehicle design assessments. Therefore, a simulation process has been developed for enhancement of measured low-resolution Rawinsonde profiles that would be applicable in preliminary launch vehicle design studies at launch sites other than KSC.

Adelfang, S. I.↗