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At least 865 records · Page 48

Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015-2030)

This report describes the approach and results associated with projecting vehicle attributes for future light-duty vehicle classes and powertrains, from year 2015 to 2030. The focus is the California light-duty vehicle market and the projected attributes include fuel economy, acceleration, driving range (total and all-electric), and manufacturer suggested retail price from year 2015 to year 2030. Attributes are weighted by California vehicle sales, which are projected using a historically validated consumer choice model - the Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) - integrated with a modeling framework that simulates vehicle fuel economy, cost, and acceleration performance while optimizing vehicle components - the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator model (FASTSim). Both models were developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and have been adapted to represent the future California light-duty vehicle market for the present report. The analysis includes several scenarios pertaining to electricity and, essentially, electric vehicle demand in California, as established by the Energy Commission. Results suggest that implementation of certain policies, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, impacts vehicle attribute projections. The results also show that standards and policy targets are not exclusively met by changes in vehicle attributes, but also through shifts in market demand and sales for certain vehicle powertrains.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Validating first-principles molecular dynamics calculations of oxide/water interfaces with x-ray reflectivity data

Metal oxide/water interfaces play a crucial role in many electrochemical and photocatalytic processes, such as photoelectrochemical water splitting, the creation of fuel from sunlight, and electrochemical CO 2 reduction. First-principles electronic structure calculations can reveal unique insights into these processes, such as the role of the alignment of the oxide electronic energy levels with those of liquid water. An essential prerequisite for the success of such calculations is the ability to predict accurate structural models of these interfaces, which in turn requires careful experimental validation. Here we report a general, quantitative validation protocol for first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of oxide/aqueous interfaces. The approach makes direct comparisons of interfacial x-ray reflectivity (XR) signals from experimental measurements and those obtained from ab initio simulations with semilocal and van der Waals functionals. The protocol is demonstrated here for the case of the Al 2 O 3 (001)/water interface, one of the simplest oxide/water interfaces. We discuss the technical requirements needed for validation, including the choice of the density functional, the simulation cell size, and the optimal choice of the thermodynamic ensemble. Our results establish a general paradigm for the validation of structural models and interactions at solid/water interfaces derived from first-principles simulations. Furthermore, while there is qualitative agreement between the simulated structures and the experimental best-fit structure, direct comparisons of simulated and measured XR intensities show quantitative discrepancies that derive from both bulk regions (i.e., alumina and water) as well as the interfacial region, highlighting the need for accurate density functionals to properly describe interfacial interactions. Our results show that XR data are sensitive not only to the atomic structure (i.e., the atom locations) but also to the electron-density distributions in both the substrate and at the interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New machine learning techniques for simulation-based inference: InferoStatic nets, kernel score estimation, and kernel likelihood ratio estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗

Codebase release 0.1 for infstat

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗

Parallelization and Performance Portability in Hydrodynamics Codes

With the eve of Exascale computing, performance and portability are at the forefront of all scientific codes. Adding more cores and more energy to a system is no longer a sustainable way to achieve performance, and extra effort must now be made to improve performance in all areas of code and code development. Using hydrodynamic codes as a basis, this work explores numerous techniques to achieve performance in different ways. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a necessary technique to improve memory optimization in mesh-based simulations. However it is invasive and conventionally difficult to integrate into existing applications, so we present a new branch of AMR to create a smooth transition to these optimizations, which not only improves performance, but also greatly reduces developer effort. We introduce the concept of this improvement as Phantom-Cell AMR, and assess theoretically the improvements, as well as present an application of its use. Other work included involves and investigation into an efficient data structure that ensures optimal memory layout for cache performance, with a target of making codes performant and portable across all architectures. All of the work targets both performance and portability, not just on CPU hardware, but specifically across GPU architectures. Parallel performance is key to all of the methods presented, but the research makes a great effort to improve the portability of all applications to prepare for current high performance computing systems and those on the horizon.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

New Machine Learning Techniques for Simulation-Based Inference: InferoStatic Nets, Kernel Score Estimation, and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential $\varphi$. In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Accelerating laser ray tracing in high fidelity physics simulations of laser melting using squeeze U-net

Laser melting is a core component of the ongoing industrial revolution, dubbed Industry 4.0, as lasers facilitate fast and precise melting and fusion in advanced manufacturing. There is a strong need to optimize the laser process using simulations. However, this has proven challenging as high fidelity simulations are needed for predictive modeling and this is currently prohibitively expensive even when run on hundreds of processors on high performance computers. The challenge is capturing complex physics of laser material interaction, fluid dynamics, thermal physics and material phase transformations at various length and time scales. To close this technological gap, we modified a squeeze U-net to accelerate the laser ray tracing component of such high fidelity models by ~4x–40x while preserving the core physics principle of conservation of energy with 97% accuracy. This approach enables the accurate modeling of global laser energy absorption as a function of local surface temperatures and complex surface topologies, which govern the reflection directions and energy losses of laser rays upon interacting with the material surface.

Computer science↗

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An enhanced artificial neural network with a shuffled complex evolutionary global optimization with principal component analysis

The classical Back-Propagation (BP) scheme with gradient-based optimization in training Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) suffers from many drawbacks, such as the premature convergence, and the tendency of being trapped in local optimums. Therefore, as an alternative for the BP and gradient-based optimization schemes, various Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), i.e., Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Simulated Annealing (SA), and Differential Evolution (DE), have gained popularity in the field of ANN weight training. This study applied a new efficient and effective Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Global Optimization Algorithm with Principal Component Analysis – University of California Irvine (SP-UCI) to the weight training process of a three-layer feed-forward ANN. A large-scale numerical comparison is conducted among the SP-UCI-, PSO-, GA-, SA-, and DE-based ANNs on 17 benchmark, complex, and real-world datasets. Here the results show that SP-UCI-based ANN outperforms other EA-based ANNs in the context of convergence and generalization. Results suggest that the SP-UCI algorithm possesses good potential in support of the weight training of ANN in real-word problems. In addition, the suitability of different kinds of EAs on training ANN is discussed. The large-scale comparison experiments conducted in this paper are fundamental references for selecting proper ANN weight training algorithms in practice.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗

The influence of fire aerosols on surface climate and gross primary production in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Fire-emitted aerosols play an important role in influencing Earth’s climate, directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by influencing cloud microphysics. The quantification of fire-aerosol interactions, however, remains challenging and subject to uncertainties in emissions, plume parameterizations, and aerosol properties. Here we optimized fire-associated aerosol emissions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations during 1997-2016. Furthermore, we distributed fire emissions vertically using smoke plume heights from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. From the optimization, we estimate that global fires emit 45.5 Tg y -1 of primary particulate organic matter and 3.9 Tg y -1 of black carbon. We then performed two climate simulations with and without the optimized fire emissions. We find that fire aerosols significantly increase global AOD by 14 ± 7% and contribute to a reduction in net shortwave radiation at the surface (-2.3 ± 0.5 W m -2 ). Together, fire-induced direct and indirect aerosol effects cause annual mean global land surface air temperature to decrease by 0.17 ± 0.15°C, relative humidity to increase by 0.4 ± 0.3%, and diffuse light fraction to increase by 0.5 ± 0.3%. In response, GPP declines by 2.8 Pg C y -1 , as a result of large positive drivers (decreases in temperature and increases in humidity and diffuse light) nearly cancelling out large negative drivers (decreases shortwave radiation and soil moisture). Our analysis highlights the importance of fire aerosols in modifying surface climate and photosynthesis across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation: Preprint

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., lost a large generation unit). The NLM engine is a central dispatch control system that provides high-speed cost-optimal coordination of a set of net loads (combination of generation and deferrable loads) connected to the same electrical network. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility.

droop control↗

Implications of water management representations for watershed hydrologic modeling in the Yakima River basin

Water management substantially alters natural regimes of streamflow through modifying retention time and water exchanges among different components of the terrestrial water cycle. Accurate simulation of water cycling in intensively managed watersheds, such as the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., faces challenges in reliably characterizing influences of management practices (e.g., reservoir operation and cropland irrigation) on the watershed hydrology. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, we evaluated streamflow simulations in the YRB based on different reservoir operation and irrigation schemes. Simulated streamflow with the reservoir operation scheme optimized by the RiverWare model better reproduced measured streamflow than the simulation using default SWAT reservoir operation scheme. Scenarios with irrigation practices demonstrated higher water losses through evapotranspiration (ET), and matched benchmark data better than the scenario that only considered reservoir operations. Results of this study highlight the importance of reliably representing reservoir operations and irrigation management for credible modeling of watershed hydrology. Incorporating improved reservoir operation schemes and local irrigation information into SWAT holds the promise to further enhance its capability for hydrologic modeling in managed watersheds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the Impact of Data Staging for Coupled Scientific Workflows

We report the rate of data generated by cutting-edge experimental science facilities and large-scale simulations enabled by current high-performance computing (HPC) systems has continued to grow at a far greater pace than the development of the network and storage capabilities on which these systems rely. To cope with this challenge, scientist are moving toward the creation of autonomous experiments and HPC simulations using machine learning. However, efficiently moving, storing, and processing large amounts of data away from the point of origin presents an incredible challenge. In-memory computing, in situ analysis, data staging, and data streaming are recognized viable alternatives to traditional file-based methods for transferring data between coupled workflows. However, the performance trade-offs and limitations for these methods are not fully understood when used in HPC applications. This article presents a comprehensive performance assessment of the current solutions for data staging when applied to applications that are not necessary I/O intensive which makes them not ideal candidates for these methods. Our study is based on experiments running at scale on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Summit supercomputer using applications and simulations that cover typical computational motifs and patterns. We investigated the usability and cost/benefit trade-offs of staging algorithms for HPC applications under different scenarios and highlight opportunities for optimizing the dataflow between coupled simulation workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ML4Geo: Machine Learning based Well Design to Enhance Unconventional Energy Production

This project aimed at using artificial intelligence and machine learning methods to improve oil and gas operations. On the machine learning front, this focused on the development of differentiable programming methods that are relevant in this application area, such as incorporating physical simulations into machine learning workflows. On the oil and gas front, the focus was on optimizing well performance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Comparison of Human Error Probabilities Collected from HuREX and SHEEP Frameworks

This paper discusses how different are the HEPs collected from HuREX and SHEEP frameworks. This study is a preceding research to infer full-scope HRA data based on the data collected from the SHEEP framework. For the comparison, we used HEPs in the HuREX database published in KAERI-TR-6649 [6]. The HEPs have been collected from actual licensed operators when manipulating MCR simulators of Westinghouse type and Optimized Power Reactor (OPR1000) type in South Korea. For the HEPs based on the SHEEP framework, these have been collected from actual licensed operators and students when using a simplified simulator, i.e., Rancor Microworld.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Memory access optimization for particle operations in computational fluid dynamics-discrete element method simulations

Computational Fluid Dynamics - Discrete Element Method is used to model gas-solid systems in several applications in energy, pharmaceutical and petrochemical industries. Computational performance bottlenecks often limit the problem sizes that can be simulated at industrial scale. The data structures used to store several millions of particles in such large-scale simulations have a large memory footprint that does not fit into the processor cache hierarchies on current high-performance-computing platforms, leading to reduced computational performance. This paper specifically addresses this aspect of memory access bottlenecks in industrial scale simulations. The use of space-filling curves to improve memory access patterns is described and their impact on computational performance is quantified in both shared and distributed memory parallelization paradigms. The Morton space filling curve applied to uniform grids and k-dimensional tree partitions are used to reorder the particle data-structure thus improving spatial and temporal locality in memory. The performance impact of these techniques when applied to two benchmark problems, namely the homogeneous-cooling-system and a fluidized-bed, are presented. We report these optimization techniques lead to approximately two-fold performance improvement in particle focused operations such as neighbor-list creation and data-exchange, with ~ 1.5 times overall improvement in a fluidization simulation with 1.27 million particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., the loss of a large generation unit). This NLM engine is particularly important for microgrid systems because it provides a high-speed, cost-optimal control solution to coordinate grid-forming inverters and to dispatch grid-following inverters and deferrable loads in microgrid systems to enhance grid resilience and reliability. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm with two sequential contingency events of lost generation units. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can maintain system stability, achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency, and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility with improved system resilience and reliability.

grid-following inverter↗