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At least 865 records · Page 48

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Test Information Management System (Report FY 2020 and FY 2021)

Delivery Environments supported work in Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021 to develop the Test Information Management System (TIMS). This effort involved creating a suite of tools consisting of a database and the uploading and downloading scripts. It has been demonstrated that the TIMS database is suitable for archiving raw measurements performed on various measured test articles. The TIMS database has been populated with data from the TRUST projects in FY 20 and FY 21. This included the functional data in the Sensors records as well as metadata stored in records in several other tables. The performed work demonstrated that a database archiving validation test data and integrating it with engineering analysis simulations has a great potential to increase the efficiency, responsiveness, and confidence in the modeling, simulation, and validation efforts for future (and current) weapon systems and assemblies in normal and abnormal environments. In this report, we also discuss how the records belonging to the same project should be arranged, what are the minimum requirements for linking the records using the tabular links, and we provide several recommendations to the projects engineers and the database administrator to improve the TIMS database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ORNL Design Engineering Library: Validated Thermoelectric Digital Twins

Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) serve a crucial role in supplying thermal and electrical energy for reliable and long-duration power in remote and extreme environments. The thermal energy is provided by the decay of radioisotopes and is converted into electrical energy using the steady-state thermoelectric process by exploiting the Seebeck effect. Maintaining a thermal gradient through the material is necessary to drive current production. Modern predictive multi-physics tools are able to effectively describe the complex and strongly coupled phenomena needed for accurate model-based system engineering efforts needed to develop higher performing RTGs. Experimental validation of model simulations is essential to confirm the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of predictive multiphysics tools. Validation fosters confidence among users, helps meet regulatory requirements, and contributes to the ongoing improvement of simulation techniques, ultimately leading to better, safer, and more efficient designs and processes. Validated models can then be used as digital twins and can be interrogated to understand and quantify the performance gaps between theoretical and physical systems. These insights can be used to build higher performing systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FAST Low-Energy Beamline Studies: Toward High-Peak 5D Brightness Beams for FAST-GREENS

The FAST beamline is the injector for the planned Gamma-Ray Electron ENhanced Source (GREENS) program, which aims to achieve the demonstration and first application of a high-efficiency, high-average-power free-electron laser at 515 nm. FAST-GREENS requires high 5D peak brightness; transverse normalized projected emittances of 3 mm-mrad and a peak current of 600 A are the minimum beam requirements for the FEL to reach the 10% efficiency goal. In this work, studies of the low-energy section of the FAST beamline are presented toward these ends, including preliminary measurements of beam compression and beam emittance. An effort toward developing a high-fidelity simulation model that could be later optimized for FAST-GREENS is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Atomistically resolved hot exciton relaxation dynamics in CdSe quantum dots: Experiment and theory

Semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) are well known to give rise to a quantum confined structure of excitons. Because of this quantum confinement, new physics of hot exciton relaxation dynamics arises. Decades of work using transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy have yielded initial simple observations, such as estimates of the cooling rate from single pump photon energy experiments. More detailed TA experiments employed variable pump photon energies to measure excitonic state-resolved transition rates. These TA measurements, usually the simplest form, have been employed to characterize QDs and their relaxation dynamics to this day. Yet, these TA measurements are fundamentally lacking in their ability to measure energy-resolved hot exciton cooling, which requires observation of the full cooling history through the real excitonic manifold. Here, we employ coherent multi-dimensional spectroscopy (CMDS) to perform an atomistically directed study of hot exciton cooling in CdSe QDs, revealing energy resolved relaxation dynamics. CMDS experiments are compared with simulations and prior TA measurements and simpler theories. Our findings reveal a hot exciton relaxation dynamics landscape. This relaxation dynamics landscape is a linear or sub-linear function of excess energy for different structures of QDs, with a strong size dependence. Our model simulations parameterized by the empirical pseudopotential model reproduces the experimental functional form and the dependence upon QD diameter and shell.

Atomistic simulations↗

Mathematical model of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and the human immune system

Cancer vaccines are an important component of the cancer immunotherapy toolkit enhancing immune response to malignant cells by activating CD4 + and CD8 + T cells. Multiple successful clinical applications of cancer vaccines have shown good safety and efficacy. Despite the notable progress, significant challenges remain in obtaining consistent immune responses across heterogeneous patient populations, as well as various cancers. We present a mechanistic mathematical model describing key interactions of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine with an individual patient’s immune system. Specifically, the model considers the vaccine concentration of tumor-specific antigen peptides and adjuvant, the patient’s major histocompatibility complexes I and II copy numbers, tumor size, T cells, and antigen presenting cells. We parametrized the model using patient-specific data from a clinical study in which individualized cancer vaccines were used to treat six melanoma patients. Model simulations predicted both immune responses, represented by T cell counts, to the vaccine as well as clinical outcome (determined as change of tumor size). This model, although complex, can be used to describe, simulate, and predict the behavior of the human immune system to a personalized cancer vaccine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Experimental validation of a co-simulation architecture for modeling whole-building and detailed electrical distribution performance

This article presents an experimental validation of a co-simulation architecture for simultaneously modeling whole-building energy performance and detailed building electrical distribution system performance. The co-simulation architecture consists of a whole-building energy model (EnergyPlus®) embedded within a Modelica-based building electrical distribution system library called the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) using the Functional Mock-up Interface standard. We validate the model using experimental data collected at a full-scale test cell within Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s FLEXLAB® facility. In conclusion, we show that the co-simulation model accurately predicts the electrical, mechanical, and thermal performance of the test cell for typical loads with both an AC and a DC electrical distribution topology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biomass sorghum production in Iowa, USA

This dataset includes field measurement and model simulation data from Josh Bendorf's (former MS student with Drs. VanLoocke & Heaton, ISU Dept. of Agronomy) thesis project focusing on the simulation of biomass sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) in the state of Iowa. Measured field data are provided in CSV file format for 2019 & 2020. Model output files are provided as NetCDF file format for the state of Iowa (1998-2007) & the larger US region (1969-2018).

Agricultural production systems simulation↗

LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry

Since their advent over 2 decades ago, autonomous Argo floats have revolutionized the field of oceanography, and, more recently, the addition of biogeochemical and biological sensors to these floats has greatly improved our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and oxygen cycling in the ocean. While Argo floats offer unprecedented horizontal, vertical, and temporal coverage of the global ocean, uncertainties remain about whether Argo sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability in physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. As the true distributions of, e.g., temperature or oxygen are unknown, these uncertainties remain difficult to address with Argo floats alone. Numerical models with synthetic observing systems offer one potential avenue to address these uncertainties. Here, we implement synthetic biogeochemical Argo floats into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), which build on the Lagrangian In Situ Global High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT) module in E3SMv2 (E3SMv2-LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0). Since the synthetic floats sample the model fields at model run time, the end user defines the sampling protocol ahead of any model simulation, including the number and distribution of synthetic floats to be deployed, their sampling frequency, and the prognostic or diagnostic model fields to be sampled. Using a 6-year proof-of-concept simulation, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic floats in different case studies. In particular, we quantify the impact of (i) sampling density on the float-derived detection of deep-ocean change in temperature or oxygen and on float-derived estimates of phytoplankton phenology, (ii) sampling frequency and sea-ice cover on float trajectory lengths and hence float-derived estimates of current velocities, and (iii) short-term variability in ecosystem stressors on estimates of their seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of a Networked Community Microgrid with High Solar Penetration Considering Control Dynamics of Inverter-Based Resources

Microgrids help facilitate the integration of renewable energy in distribution-level grids and increase the resilience of the electric grid to extreme weather, especially in rural areas. Compared to traditional microgrids, a networked microgrid leverages multiple grid-forming sources to form a potential meshed grid and is more flexible in operation. This paper demonstrates the simulation modeling of an actual networked microgrid located in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico. The model contains representations of power inverters that connect the battery energy storage systems and photovoltaic generation systems to the networked microgrid and is capable of simulating fast grid transients as well as long-term operation of the networked microgrid. The modeling technique for power inverters allows the time-efficient simulation of the microgrid with a minimal penalty on model accuracy.

Li, Dingrui↗

Quarterly Management Document – FY20, 2nd Quarter, Physics-based Creep Simulations of Thick Section Welds in High Temperature and Pressure Applications

During the 2nd quarter of FY20, calibration of the creep model was made using experimental creep data on base metal at temperatures between 700-800 C. The model simulated primary and secondary creep behavior at these temperatures but tended to over estimate creep strain in the tertiary regime at 700 C while underestimating it at higher temperatures. Additional issues were also discovered and will be looked at in greater detail in the 3rd quarter of FY20.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards exascale for wind energy simulations

We examine large-eddy-simulation modeling approaches and computational performance of two open-source computational fluid dynamics codes for the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flows that are of direct relevance to wind energy production. The first code, NekRS, is a high-order, unstructured-grid, spectral element code. The second code, AMR-Wind, is a second-order, block-structured, finite-volume code with adaptive mesh refinement capabilities. The objective of this study is to co-develop these codes in order to improve model fidelity and performance for each. These features will be critical for running ABL-based applications such as wind farm analysis on advanced computing architectures. To this end, we investigate the performance of NekRS and AMR-Wind on the Oak Ridge Leadership Facility supercomputers Summit, using 4 to 800 nodes (24 to 4,800 NVIDIA V100 GPUs), and Crusher, the testbed for the Frontier exascale system, using 18 to 384 Graphics Compute Dies on AMD MI250X GPUs. We compare strong- and weak-scaling capabilities, linear solver performance, and time to solution. We also identify leading inhibitors to parallel scaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Aerosol Model Benchmarking Repository: A toolkit for model intercomparison

The Aerosol Model Benchmarking Repository and Standards (AMBRS) project was initiated to provide tools and to establish community standards for benchmarking aerosol models. This report describes a set of open-source tools for building, running, and analyzing aerosol box model simulations in a standardized framework. The framework consists of three core components: AMBuilder, a CMake-based build system that compiles supported models consistently; AMBRS, a Python module that defines unified numerical experiments and executes them with aligned inputs; and PyParticle, an aerosol analysis package that standardizes output, computes diagnostics, and visualizes simulation results. Together, these tools enable reproducible intercomparison of aerosol schemes and support process-level evaluation of how model simplifications affect predictions of size distributions, cloud condensation nuclei activity, and other relevant properties relevant for the Earth-Energy system. Beyond its role in benchmarking, AMBRS provides a platform for studying aerosol processes across scales and can be used to generate training data for AI/ML applications in support of a broader hierarchical aerosol modeling strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square: An improved approximation to the Poisson-likelihood chi-square

We describe an approximation to the widely-used Poisson-likelihood chi-square using a linear combination of Neyman’s and Pearson’s chi-squares, namely “combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square” ($X^2_{CNP}$). Through analytical derivations and toy model simulations, we show that leads to a significantly smaller bias on the best-fit model parameters compared to those using either Neyman’s or Pearson’s chi-square. When the computational cost of using the Poisson-likelihood chi-square is high, $X^2_{CNP}$ provides a good alternative given its natural connection to the covariance matrix formalism.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Lowering entry barriers to developing custom simulators of distributed applications and platforms with SimGrid

Researchers in parallel and distributed computing (PDC) often resort to simulation because experiments conducted using a simulator can be for arbitrary experimental scenarios, are less resource-, labor-, and time-consuming than their real-world counterparts, and are perfectly repeatable and observable. Many frameworks have been developed to ease the development of PDC simulators, and these frameworks provide different levels of accuracy, scalability, versatility, extensibility, and usability. Further, the SimGrid framework has been used by many PDC researchers to produce a wide range of simulators for over two decades. Its popularity is due to a large emphasis placed on accuracy, scalability, and versatility, and is in spite of shortcomings in terms of extensibility and usability. Although SimGrid provides sensible simulation models for the common case, it was difficult for users to extend these models to meet domain-specific needs. Furthermore, SimGrid only provided relatively low-level simulation abstractions, making the implementation of a simulator of a complex system a labor-intensive undertaking. In this work we describe developments in the last decade that have contributed to vastly improving extensibility and usability, thus lowering or removing entry barriers for users to develop custom SimGrid simulators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗