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At least 865 records · Page 48

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

NASA's solar maximum mission: A look at a new Sun

As part of the ongoing process of trying to understand the physical processes at work in the Sun, the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft was launched on February 14, 1980, near the height of the solar cycle, to enable the solar physics community to examine, in more physically meaningful detail than ever before, the most violent aspect of solar activity: flares. The scientific products of SMM are substantial: by 1986, over 400 papers based on SMM observations and their interpretations had appeared in scientific journals. More important than such numerical measures of success is the significance of the science that has come from SMM. The following topics, the Sun as a star, solar flares, and the active solar atmosphere, as well as other findings of SMM investigators are described. The instruments on the SMM are also described.

Gurman, Joseph B.↗

Studies of the Correlation Between Ionospheric Anomalies and Seismic Activities in the Indian Subcontinent

The VLF (Very Low Frequency) signals are long thought to give away important information about the Lithosphere-Ionosphere coupling. It is recently established that the ionosphere may be perturbed due to seismic activities. The effects of this perturbation can be detected through the VLF wave amplitude. There are several methods to find this correlations and these methods can be used for the prediction of these seismic events. In this paper, first we present a brief history of the use of VLF propagation method for the study of seismo-ionospheric correlations. Then we present different methods proposed by us to find out the seismo-ionospheric correlations. At the Indian Centre for Space Physics, Kolkata we have been monitoring the VTX station at Vijayanarayanam from 2002. In the initial stage, we received 17 kHz signal and latter we received 18.2 kHz signal. In this paper, first we present the results for the 17 kHz signal during Sumatra earthquake in 2004 obtained from the terminator time analysis method. Then we present much detailed and statistical analysis using some new methods and present the results for 18.2 kHz signal. In order to establish the correlation between the ionospheric activities and the earthquakes, we need to understand what are the reference signals throughout the year. We present the result of the sunrise and sunset terminators for the 18.2 kHz signal as a function of the day of the year for a period of four years, viz, 2005 to 2008 when the solar activity was very low. In this case, the signal would primarily be affected by the Sun due to normal sunrise and sunset effects. Any deviation from this standardized calibration curve would point to influences by terrestrial (such as earthquakes) and extra-terrestrial (such as solar activities and other high energy phenomena). We present examples of deviations which occur in a period of sixteen months and show that the correlations with seismic events is significant and typically the highest deviation in terminator shift takes place up to a couple of days prior to the seismic event. We introduce a new method where we find the effects of the seismic activities on D-layer preparation time (DLPT) and the D-layer disappearance time (DLDT). We identify those days in which DLPT and DLDT exhibit deviations from the average value and we correlate those days with seismic events. Separately, we compute the energy release by the earthquakes and using this, we compute the total energy released locally from distant earthquakes and find correlations of the deviations with them. In this case also we find pre-cursors a few days before the seismic events. In a third approach, we consider the nighttime fluctuation method (differently quantified than the conventional way). We analyzed the nighttime data for the year 2007 to check the correlation between the night time fluctuation of the signal amplitude and the seismic events. Using the statistical method for all the events of the year and for the individual individual earthquakes (Magnitude > 5) we found that the night time signal amplitude becomes very high on three days prior to the seismic events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

TESTING AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING WITH 13 YEARS OF MICHELSON DOPPLER IMAGER MAGNETOGRAMS

Flare occurrence is statistically associated with changes in several characteristics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs). We calculated magnetic measures throughout the disk passage of 1075 ARs spanning solar cycle 23 to find a statistical relationship between the solar magnetic field and flares. This expansive study of over 71,000 magnetograms and 6000 flares uses superposed epoch (SPE) analysis to investigate changes in several magnetic measures surrounding flares and ARs completely lacking associated flares. The results were used to seek any flare associated signatures with the capability to recover weak systematic signals with SPE analysis. SPE analysis is a method of combining large sets of data series in a manner that yields concise information. This is achieved by aligning the temporal location of a specified flare in each time series, then calculating the statistical moments of the 'overlapping' data. The best-calculated parameter, the gradient-weighted inversion-line length (GWILL), combines the primary polarity inversion line (PIL) length and the gradient across it. Therefore, GWILL is sensitive to complex field structures via the length of the PIL and shearing via the gradient. GWILL shows an average 35% increase during the 40 hr prior to X-class flares, a 16% increase before M-class flares, and 17% increase prior to B-C-class flares. ARs not associated with flares tend to decrease in GWILL during their disk passage. Gilbert and Heidke skill scores are also calculated and show that even GWILL is not a reliable parameter for predicting solar flares in real time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilization of independent solar flux measurements to eliminate nongeochemical variation in X-ray fluorescence data

It is shown that the direct method of solar activity correction for lunar XRF data produces XRF data with better statistics than uncorrected data. Direct measurements of the solar flux made by Solrad 10 are converted to emissions of the sun from two assumed temperature regions. These emissions are ratioed to produce emission measure ratios, sensitive indicators of shifts in solar activity. The Tucker-Koren model (1971) of the solar flux is used in the calculation of EMRs and in the calculation of theoretical lunar Si, Al, and Mg fluorescence of maria and highland soils. Al/Si(Mg/Si) ratios calculated at a 'normal' EMR of 0.030 are divided by Al/Si(Mg/Si) ratios at particular EMRs. The relationship between EMR and the quotients of this division, called 'correction factors', is well explained by empirically derived power law functions.

Clark, P. E.↗

QUANTIFYING THE TOPOLOGY AND EVOLUTION OF A MAGNETIC FLUX ROPE ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI-FLARE ACTIVITIES

Magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) play an important role in solar activities. The quantitative assessment of the topology of an MFR and its evolution is crucial for a better understanding of the relationship between the MFR and associated activities. In this paper, we investigate the magnetic field of active region (AR) 12017 from 2014 March 28–29, during which time 12 flares were triggered by intermittent eruptions of a filament (either successful or confined). Using vector magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory , we calculate the magnetic energy and helicity injection in the AR, and extrapolate the 3D magnetic field with a nonlinear force-free field model. From the extrapolations, we find an MFR that is cospatial with the filament. We further determine the configuration of this MFR from the closed quasi-separatrix layer (QSL) around it. Then, we calculate the twist number and the magnetic helicity for the field lines composing the MFR. The results show that the closed QSL structure surrounding the MFR becomes smaller as a consequence of flare occurrence. We also find that the flares in our sample are mainly triggered by kink instability. Moreover, the twist number varies more sensitively than other parameters with the occurrence of flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Correlation Between Changes in Solar Luminosity and Differential Radius Measurements

Solar luminosity variations occurring during solar cycle 21 can be attributed in large part to the presence of sunspots and faculae. Nevertheless, there remains a residual portion of the luminosity variation distinctly unaccounted for by these phenomena of solar activity. At the Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity by Astrometry (SCLERA), observations of the solar limb are capable of detecting changes in the solar limb darkening function by monitoring a quantity known as the differential radius. These observations are utilized in such a way that the effects of solar activity are minimized in order to reveal the more fundamental structure of the photosphere. The results of observations made during solar cycle 21 at various solar latitudes indicate that a measurable change did occur in the global photospheric limb darkening function. It is proposed that the residual luminosity change is associated in part with this change in limb darkening.

Kroll, R. J.↗

Approximately 2400-Year Cycle in the Concentration of Cosmogenic Radionuclides: Sources of Variations

Cosmogenic isotopes, including {sup 14}C, {sup 10}Be, and {sup 7}Be, are produced in the Earth’s atmosphere under the effect of cosmic rays. The rate of their production is determined by several factors, such as the intensity of primary galactic cosmic rays, the level of solar activity, and the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field. Changes in the isotope concentrations and distributions receive contributions from mixing processes proceeding in the surrounding medium: the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans. The isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be are the most important for studying solar activity and climate. Investigation of isotope concentrations reveal that there are both long-term trends and cyclic components. As for {sup 14}C, the long-term component caused by the change in the magnetic dipole moment of the Earth with a characteristic time of about 10{sup 4} years is the most commonly known. It is well known that the concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes change cyclically with time. The ~2400-year cycle (Hallstatt cycle) and the ~210-year cycle (de Vries cycle) are the most famous. In the present article, we discuss the possible origin of the ~2400-year cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Solar particle events and the International Space Station

The high inclination orbit for the International Space Station poses a risk to astronauts on EVA during occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. We are currently unable to predict these events within the few-hour lead time required for evasive action. Compounding the threat is the fact that station construction occurs during increasing solar activity and through the peak of the solar cycle. In this paper we present an overview of the risk, the current methods to provide forecasts of SPEs, and potential risk mitigation options.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

MULTI-FLUID MODEL OF A STREAMER AT SOLAR MINIMUM AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS

We present the results of a time-dependent 2.5-dimensional three-fluid magnetohydrodynamic model of the coronal streamer belt, which is compared with the slow solar wind plasma parameters obtained in the extended corona by the UV spectroscopic data from the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on board SOHO during the past minimum of solar activity (Carrington Rotation 1913). Our previous three-fluid streamer model has been improved by considering the solar magnetic field configuration relevant for solar minimum conditions, and preferential heating for O{sup 5+} ions. The model was run until a fully self-consistent streamer solution was obtained in the quasi-steady state. The plasma parameters from the multi-fluid model were used to compute the expected UV observables from H I Ly{alpha} 1216 A and O VI 1032 A spectral lines, and the results were compared in detail with the UVCS measurements. A good agreement between the model and the data was found. The results of the study provide insight into the acceleration and heating of the multi-ion slow solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the pattern, while those basins located in the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency atmospheric variability pattern related to the major floods occurred over the period from 1800 to 2009; the summer principal mode persists in the negative phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and 1881–1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of the mode prevail during the warmer climate of the last 4 decades (flood clusters from 1977 to present).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Analysis of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles Climatology and Multi-Day Periodicity Using GOLD Observations

This study develops a new Bubble Index to quantify the intensity of 2-D postsunset equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) in the American/Atlantic sector, using Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) nighttime data. A climatology and day-to-day variability analysis of EPBs is conducted based on the newly-derived Bubble Index with the following results: (a) EPBs show considerable seasonal and solar activity dependence, with stronger (weaker) intensity around December (June) solstice and high (low) solar activity years. (b) EPBs exhibit opposite geomagnetic activity dependencies during different storm phases: EPBs are intensified concurrently with an increasing Kp, but are suppressed with high Kp occurring 3–6 hr earlier. (c) For the first time, we found that EPBs' day-to-day variation exhibited quasi-3-day and quasi-6-day periods. A coordinated analysis of Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) winds and ionosonde data suggests that this multi-day periodicity was related to the planetary wave modulation through the wind-driven dynamo.

Ercha Aa↗

DIMMING OF THE 17TH CENTURY SUN

Reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) rely mainly on linear relations between TSI variation and indices of facular area. When these are extrapolated to the prolonged 15th-17th century Spoerer and Maunder solar activity minima, the estimated solar dimming is insufficient to explain the mid-millennial climate cooling of the Little Ice Age. We draw attention here to evidence that the relation departs from linearity at the lowest activity levels. Imaging photometry and radiometry indicate an increased TSI contribution per unit area from small network faculae by a factor of 2-4 compared with larger faculae in and around active regions. Even partial removal of this more TSI-effective network at prolonged minima could enable climatically significant solar dimming, yet be consistent with the weakened but persistent 11 yr cycle observed in Be 10 during the Maunder Minimum. The mechanism we suggest would not alter previous findings that increased solar radiative forcing is insufficient to account for 20th century global warming.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle

The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (S) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.

W. Dean Pesnell↗

Predicting Future Solar Modulation and Implementation in MCNP6

The application of detecting low level radiation in the field requires quantification of the natural radiation background specific to that location. This background is made up two primary components: naturally decaying radionuclides in the soil and atmosphere known as terrestrial background, and the particle cascades caused by high energy cosmic radiation interacting within the earth's atmosphere known as cosmic background. The terrestrial component dominates the background spectrum below approximately 2 MeV, however, the cosmic component comprises the entirety of the high-energy spectrum. Furthermore, the terrestrial component is relatively constant for a given location while the cosmic component is heavily dependent on solar activity, an effect known as solar modulation. Annual values of the solar modulation parameter, φ, have been determined since 1936, and their fluctuations are seen to be roughly sinusoidal over time. If one wished to predict or simulate the outcome of an experiment in the future, a prediction for the solar modulation would be necessary to accurately determine the cosmic background contribution. The previous version 6.1.1 of MCNP contained solar modulation data for 46 years between 1960 and 2005. This data was updated with newer solar modulation data, from I. G. Usoskin et al., which reports solar modulation data for an additional 33 years between 1936 and 2014. In order to use past solar modulation data to predict cosmic background radiation fluctuations for dates beyond 2014 an algorithm was developed to forecast future solar modulation data based on the sinusoidal behavior exhibited in recorded data. This algorithm was implemented into MCNP 6.1.2 to be used for cosmic background simulations and tested against benchmark data to assess its accuracy. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plasma instabilities in the ionosphere at the crest of anomaly region

Comparison of the in situ density fluctuations measured by the DEMETER satellite with ground based GPS receiver measurements at the equatorial anomaly station Bhopal [geographic coordinates (23.2°N, 77.6°E); geomagnetic coordinates (14.29° N, 151.12°E)] for the low solar activity year, 2005, are presented in this paper. The Langmuir Probe experiment and Plasma Analyzer onboard DEMETER measure the electron and ion densities respectively. It is interesting to note that in situ density fluctuations observed on magnetic flux tubes that pass over Bhopal can be used as indicator of ionospheric scintillations at that site. Many cases of density fluctuations and associated scintillations have been observed during descending low solar activity period.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Interactions of Dust Grains with Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Cycle Variations of the F-Coronal Brightness

The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.

Ragot, B. R.↗

High-spectral resolution solar microwave observations

The application of high-spectral resolution microwave observations to the study of solar activity is discussed with particular emphasis on the frequency dependence of microwave emission from solar active regions. A shell model of gyroresonance emission from active regions is described which suggest that high-spectral resolution, spatially-resolved observations can provide quantitative information about the magnetic field distribution at the base of the corona. Corresponding observations of a single sunspot with the Owens Valley frequency-agile interferometer at 56 frequencies between 1.2 and 14 Ghs are presented. The overall form of the observed size and brightness temperature spectra was consistent with expectations based on the shell model, although there were differences of potential physical significance. The merits and weaknesses of microwave spectroscopy as a technique for measuring magnetic fields in the solar corona are briefly discussed.

Hurford, G. J.↗