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At least 865 records · Page 48

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2002

Space radiation absorbed dose distribution in a human phantom

The radiation risk to astronauts has always been based on measurements using passive thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs). The skin dose is converted to dose equivalent using an average radiation quality factor based on model calculations. The radiological risk estimates, however, are based on organ and tissue doses. This paper describes results from the first space flight (STS-91, 51.65 degrees inclination and approximately 380 km altitude) of a fully instrumented Alderson Rando phantom torso (with head) to relate the skin dose to organ doses. Spatial distributions of absorbed dose in 34 1-inch-thick sections measured using TLDs are described. There is about a 30% change in dose as one moves from the front to the back of the phantom body. Small active dosimeters were developed specifically to provide time-resolved measurements of absorbed dose rates and quality factors at five organ locations (brain, thyroid, heart/lung, stomach and colon) inside the phantom. Using these dosimeters, it was possible to separate the trapped-proton and the galactic cosmic radiation components of the doses. A tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) and a charged-particle directional spectrometer (CPDS) were flown next to the phantom torso to provide data on the incident internal radiation environment. Accurate models of the shielding distributions at the site of the TEPC, the CPDS and a scalable Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) model of the phantom torso were developed. These measurements provided a comprehensive data set to map the dose distribution inside a human phantom, and to assess the accuracy and validity of radiation transport models throughout the human body. The results show that for the conditions in the International Space Station (ISS) orbit during periods near the solar minimum, the ratio of the blood-forming organ dose rate to the skin absorbed dose rate is about 80%, and the ratio of the dose equivalents is almost one. The results show that the GCR model dose-rate predictions are 20% lower than the observations. Assuming that the trapped-belt models lead to a correct orbit-averaged energy spectrum, the measurements of dose rates inside the phantom cannot be fully understood. Passive measurements using 6Li- and 7Li-based detectors on the astronauts and inside the brain and thyroid of the phantom show the presence of a significant contribution due to thermal neutrons, an area requiring additional study.

STS-91 Shuttle Project↗

NASA NTRS2022

Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. Formalization of the process for creating these causal diagrams will enable the creation of a composite risk network that is vetted by members of the NASA community and configuration managed. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document outlines the pilot process, the standardized approaches, and guidance for risk custodian teams when creating and updating DAGs as a part of the NASA Human System Risk Management process.

Risk↗

DOE OSTI2022

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wildland Fire Management Plan (August 2022-August 2025): February-August 2022

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is located in a moderate wildfire risk region. The region has a history of damaging wildland fire activity and is also susceptible to changing environmental conditions (drought, elevated temperatures) that may lead to an increase in wildfire frequency and consequence over time. An integrated, site-wide wildland fire management plan is required by the Department of Energy and is to be consistent with the Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. The NREL Wildland Fire Management Plan (WFMP) provides an integrated approach to reducing risk to wildland fire at NREL. The goals of the WFMP are to protect human health and safety, protect NREL facilities and research, enhance community protection, diminish risk and consequences of wildland fires, and maintain the health of the ecosystem. The WFMP accomplishes these goals through the use of tools such as fire behavior modeling, fire growth modeling, a structure ignition risk assessment, and through the application of robust fire prevention, emergency management, and environmental programs. The NREL WFMP was developed in a collaborative manner with input from regional stakeholders including cities, counties, local fire departments, and other governmental agencies. The WFMP provides for recommendations to reduce overall wildland fire risk to life safety and property at NREL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Flexible Method for Producing F.E.M. Analysis of Bone Using Open-Source Software

Individuals who experience decreases in load-bearing bone densities can be subject to a higher risk of bone fracture during daily activity. Astronauts may lose up to nine percent of their load-bearing bone density for every month they spend in space [1]. Because of this, specialized countermeasures reduce percent loss in bone density and reduce fracture risk upon returning to Earth. Astronauts will typically not be at risk for fracture during spaceflight, because of the lesser loads experienced in microgravity conditions. However, once back on Earth, astronauts have an increased risk for bone fracture as a result of weakened bone and return to 1G conditions [2]. It is therefore important to understand the significance of any bone density loss in addition to developing exercises in an attempt to limit losses in bone strength. NASA seeks to develop a deeper understanding of fracture risk through the development of a computational bone strength model to assess the bone fracture risk of astronauts pre-flight and post-flight. This study addresses the several key processes needed to develop such strength analyses using medical image processing and finite element modeling.

biomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2022

In with the old, in with the new: machine learning for time to event biomedical research

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell’s c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. Furthermore, the long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Constrained Bottom-Up Ecohydrology and Improved Prediction of Seasonal, Interannual, and Decadal Flood and Drought Risks

Focal Areas: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (3)Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed & simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging AI and Spatial Data to Unlock Pipeline Integrity Insights: NETL’s Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)

Maintaining the integrity of natural gas infrastructure plays a critical role in ensuring energy security. Robust, data-driven foundational AI models for pipeline integrity can help address risk management and mitigation issues. Trusted foundational models can help with industry adoption and accelerate innovation by enhancing integrity predictions, reduce costs, and informing infrastructure build-out. The AIIM dashboard was released in 2022 and utilizes multi-ML models for ensemble-type insights. It was expanded to include analytics on reported incidents. It was developed as an ESRI Dashboard to support data visualization & interrogation and contains pipeline data and model results.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)↗

NASA NTRS2009

Metabolic Cost of Experimental Exercises

Although the type and duration of activity during decompression was well documented, the metabolic cost of 1665 subject-exposures with 8 activity profiles from 17 altitude decompression sickness (DCS) protocols at Brooks City-Base, TX from 1983-2005 was not determined. Female and male human volunteers (30 planned, 4 completed) performed activity profiles matching those 8 activity profiles at ground level with continuous monitoring of metabolic cost. A Cosmed K4b2 Cardio Pulmonary Exercise Testing device was used to measure oxygen uptake (VO2) during the profiles. The results show levels of metabolic cost to the females for the profiles tested varied from 4.3 to 25.5 ml/kg/min and from 3.0 to 12.0 ml/kg/min to the males. The increase in VO2 from seated rest to the most strenuous of the 8 activity profiles was 3.6-fold for the females and 2.8-fold for the males. These preliminary data on 4 subjects indicate close agreement of oxygen uptake for activity performed during many subject-exposures as published earlier. The relatively low average oxygen uptake required to perform the most strenuous activity may imply the need for adjustment of modeling efforts using metabolic cost as a risk factor. Better definition of metabolic cost during exposure to altitude, a critical factor in DCS risk, may allow refinement of DCS prediction models.

Webb, James T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Secondary Impacts on Structures on the Lunar Surface

The Altair Lunar Lander is being designed for the planned return to the Moon by 2020. Since it is hoped that lander components will be re-used by later missions, studies are underway to examine the exposure threat to the lander sitting on the Lunar surface for extended periods. These threats involve both direct strikes of meteoroids on the vehicle as well as strikes from Lunar regolith and rock thrown by nearby meteorite strikes. Currently, the lander design is comprised of up to 10 different types of pressure vessels. These vessels included the manned habitation module, fuel, cryogenic fuel and gas storage containers, and instrument bays. These pressure vessels have various wall designs, including various aluminum alloys, honeycomb, and carbon-fiber composite materials. For some of the vessels, shielding is being considered. This program involved the test and analysis of six pressure vessel designs, one of which included a Whipple bumper shield. In addition to the pressure vessel walls, all the pressure vessels are wrapped in multi-layer insulation (MLI). Two variants were tested without the MLI to better understand the role of the MLI in the impact performance. The tests of performed were to examine the secondary impacts on these structures as they rested on the Lunar surface. If a hypervelocity meteor were to strike the surface nearby, it would throw regolith and rock debris into the structure at a much lower velocity. Also, when the manned module departs for the return to Earth, its rocket engines throw up debris that can impact the remaining lander components and cause damage. Glass spheres were used as a stimulant for the regolith material. Impact tests were performed with a gas gun to find the V50 of various sized spheres striking the pressure vessels. The impacts were then modeled and a fast-running approximate model for the V50 data was developed. This model was for performing risk analysis to assist in the vessel design and in the identification of ideal long-term mission sites. This paper reviews the impact tests and analysis and modeling examining the impact threat to various components in the lander design.

Christiansen, Eric↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MEDPRAT Treatment Clusters: Improving Representation of Mission Medical Risk

INTRODUCTION The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) implements a computational model that aims to quantify spaceflight medical risk by utilizing probabilistic techniques to simulate critical event incidence and outcomes over thousands of simulated mission trials. The goal of MEDPRAT is to characterize mission medical risk and provide insight into medical resource utilization. In order to analyze the medical resource space, treatment must be mapped from each simulated condition, and resources consumed as a result of this treatment must be tracked throughout the course of the mission. A new MEDPRAT feature, ‘treatment clusters’, provide a more sophisticated method of defining the structure and interaction between resources, more closely mimicking the way treatment is carried out clinically. METHODS Treatment clusters expand on the two existing treatment groupings (combination and alternate) adding a new grouping: bundled treatment. Treatment clusters may be combined to any depth, giving users the ability to specify complex treatment trees whose behavior is governed by several user-specified parameters. This approach emphasizes reusability, as treatment clusters, once defined, can be used to create more complex treatment trees or applied to many conditions. By configuring parameters for contribution, efficacy, necessity, primacy, and equivalence, resource relationships and dependencies can be more accurately represented, thereby allowing users to build capabilities with desired treatment properties, for example an intravenous capability for conditions such as anaphylaxis, acute radiation syndrome, etc. MEDPRAT v1.0 remains backward compatible with existing treatment structures, giving users the ability to define new treatment clusters as evidence becomes available, without having to recode their existing treatment databases. In addition to facilitating the representation of more complex treatment options, by pairing treatment clusters with the internal optimization routine, the MEDPRAT set selector, medical resources can be identified as organized in bundles, where appropriate, so that optimized resource sets include groups of highly-dependent resources only when all resources of the group are together. For example, it would be wasteful to include ultrasound gel but not an ultrasound machine, since the gel provides no benefit as a treatment without the ultrasound machine. With treatment clusters, the user may require that both resources are available to provide any benefit as treatment, so that if one resource is optimized out of the set, the other resource will be optimized out as well. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We will report on MEDPRAT treatment clusters used in a bundling study under the IMPACT project of the ExMC element. We will discuss an example of a complex treatment tree. Through the implementation of this feature MEDPRAT enables treatment to be defined and applied in a way that is more representative of the real world, providing more accurate insight into mission medical risk and the medical resource space.

Lawrence Leinweber↗

NASA NTRS2023

Numerical Investigation of Occupant Injury Risks During A Realistic Transport Aircraft Crash Conditions

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted a full-scale crash test of a Fokker F28 MK1000 aircraft to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. This crash test was computationally recreated using finite element (FE) human body models (HBMs) to further explore potential injury risks to occupants and analyze the utilization of HBMs in the aerospace crash environment. The Global Human Body Model Consortium (GHBMC) male 50th percentile occupant detailed model (v6.0) and the Toyota Human Model for Safety (THUMS) male 50th percentile occupant model (v6.1) were selected to be used in the crash simulations. The HBMs were simulated in conditions matching those of anthropomorphic test device (ATD) experiments included within the aircraft cabin during the crash test. Seven occupant locations within the cabin were simulated utilizing each of the models. The models were positioned in a neutral upright posture with hands resting on the legs and the feet contacting the floor. Head, brain, neck, and lumbar vertebra injury metrics were calculated for all trials. Both HBM models required minor modifications to stabilize these simulations. The GHBMC model required added erosion for six parts while the THUMS model only required one in order to complete the full simulation. The THUMS model, however, required a much smaller timestep for stability and therefore took significantly more computational time. In addition the GHBMC model includes integrated instrumentation while the THUMS model requires development and implementation of instrumentation. Both models predicted 100% injury risk for lumbar vertebra fracture in all test conditions. This prediction was in family with high lumbar load values measured by the ATDs during the crash test. The THUMS model consistently predicted lower injury risks than the GHBMC model in all three other metrics varying depending on the crash pulse. Overall, the THUMS model required less modifications to allow for this study. However, the GHBMC models significantly faster run time and integrated instrumentation make it a more intuitive model for this research.

Crashworthiness↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing risk for Dengue in Brazil: a multi-dimensional approach

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne infectious disease worldwide, primarily caused by the Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. There are approximately 100-400 million cases annually, with roughly half of the global population at risk. In recent years, and particularly in 2024, there has been a major increase in Dengue cases in North and South America. One of the most heavily affected countries is Brazil, where there has been a 230% increase in cases in 2024 compared to 2023. In a report in June 2024, the CDC released a report indicating 3 risk groups for dengue: infants aged ≤1 year, pregnant women, and adults over 65 years old. Due to the spike in cases, it’s important to understand what factors contribute to Dengue risk and create a model to quantify it in order to inform decisions on how to respond. The main 2 parts of this project were a) exploring the spatial relationships between these 3 Dengue risk group populations and aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Brazil and b) creating an index to quantify risk for Dengue in Brazil. The 10 cities with the highest risk were identified, and it was found that the east coast and southern regions are at highest risk. The findings in this study provide insights into cities and areas of Brazil that should be focused on for targeting Dengue spread.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

NASA NTRS2019

Haystack Ultra-Wideband Satellite Imaging Radar Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment: 2014-2017

Since the founding of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) in 1979, the knowledge that orbital debris poses a risk to operational satellites and human spaceflight has been publically available. Services that rely on satellite-based technology such as communications, internet, navigation, and weather forecasting, to name a few, are ubiquitous in modern society. The International Space Station (ISS) has been continuously inhabited by a crew of up to six astronauts since November 2000 and makes, on average, approximately one debris avoidance maneuver per year to avoid objects that are large enough to be tracked by ground-based radars. This places an increased need for understanding the current status of the debris environment (measurements), for the ability to predict the future environment (modeling), and for understanding risk factors for debris creating events (mitigation). For NASA, the measurements, modeling, and mitigation aspects of orbital debris are led by the NASA ODPO at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas.This report summarizes radar measurement data from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) and provided to the NASA ODPO. The time period covered by this report includes data collected during the U.S. government fiscal year (FY) 2014 through FY2017. The U.S. government FY begins on 1 October and lasts through 30 September of a given year (i.e., FY2014 lasts from 1 October 1 2013 through 30 September 30 2014). At this report’s release, processed data was unavailable from the Haystack Auxiliary Radar (HAX) due to errors in the calibration data for the radar and limited transmit power; a decision was made by NASA not to collect low-power HAX radar data. This is being resolved by NASA and MIT/LL and data collected during this time period will be released in a separate report.

DRADIS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

Characterization of NEAs provides important inputs to models for atmospheric entry, risk assessment and mitigation. Diameter is a key parameter because diameter translates to kinetic energy in atmospheric entry. Diameters can be derived from the absolute magnitude, H(PA=0deg), and from thermal modeling of observed IR fluxes. For both methods, the albedo (pv) is important - high pv surfaces have cooler temperatures, larger diameters for a given Hmag, and shallower phase curves (larger slope parameter G). Thermal model parameters are coupled, however, so that a higher thermal inertia also results in a cooler surface temperature. Multiple parameters contribute to constraining the diameter. Observations made at multiple observing geometries can contribute to understanding the relationships between and potentially breaking some of the degeneracies between parameters. We present data and analyses on NEA 3691 Bede with the aim of best constraining the diameter and pv from a combination of thermal modeling and light curve analyses. We employ our UKIRT+Michelle mid-IR photometric observations of 3691 Bede's thermal emission at 2 phase angles (27&43 deg 2015-03-19 & 04-13), in addition to WISE data (33deg 2010-05-27, Mainzer+2011). Observing geometries differ by solar phase angles and by moderate changes in heliocentric distance (e.g., further distances produce somewhat cooler surface temperatures). With the NEATM model and for a constant IR beaming parameter (eta=constant), there is a family of solutions for (diameter, pv, G, eta) where G is the slope parameter from the H-G Relation. NEATM models employing Pravec+2012's choice of G=0.43, produce D=1.8 km and pv≈0.4, given that G=0.43 is assumed from studies of main belt asteroids (Warner+2009). We present an analysis of the light curve of 3691 Bede to constrain G from observations. We also investigate fitting thermophysical models (TPM, Rozitis+11) to constrain the coupled parameters of thermal inertia (Gamma) and surface roughness, which in turn affect diameter and pv. Surface composition can be related to pv. This study focuses on understanding and characterizing the dependency of parameters with the aim of constraining diameter, pv and thermal inertia for 3691 Bede.

Wooden, Diane H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

magnitude↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high–risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: Insights from a two–group, two–route epidemic model

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared toward the use of condoms and/or sexual abstinence (robust control strategy) with risk compensation behavior change, and a scenario of control strategies with behavior change in response to the doubling rate (adaptive control strategy). Monkeypox's basic reproduction number is 1.464, 0.0066, and 1.461 in the high-risk, low-risk, and total populations, respectively, with the high-risk group being the major driver of monkeypox spread. Policies imposing condom use or sexual abstinence need to achieve a 35% minimum compliance rate to stop further transmission, while a combination of both can curb the spread with 10% compliance to abstinence and 25% to condom use. With risk compensation, the only option is to impose sexual abstinence by at least 35%. Adaptive control is more effective than robust control where the daily sexual contact number is reduced proportionally and remains constant thereafter, shortening the time to epidemic peak, lowering its size, facilitating disease attenuation, and playing a key role in controlling the current outbreak.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗