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At least 865 records · Page 48

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment (Topical Report)

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations plays a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. We present the use, progress, and research trends of risk assessment from the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. The information provided in this report can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply them effectively in large-scale CCUS projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Approach to Dependency Analysis in Human Reliability Analysis: Application in a Stream Generator Tube Rupture Scenario

Dependency analysis in human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method of adjusting the failure probability of a given action by considering the impact of the action preceding it. It plays a role in reasonably accounting for human actions in the context of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs), preventing PSA results from being estimated too optimistically based on the HRA results. Nevertheless, the existing dependency methods present a couple of challenges in that the quantification approaches rarely explain the adjustment of human error probabilities (HEPs). For this reason, the authors’ previous research has pointed out challenges of the existing dependency approaches and conceptually, theoretically proposed a performance shaping factor (PSF)-based dynamic dependency analysis method for HRA in order to complement the existing dependency methods. The current paper explores the latest version of the method and guidance for applying it to a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenario.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Investigation of Hardware and Instrumentation to Measure Hand Grasp Activity with the Spacesuit Gloves

Introduction: During the 2022 suited injury summit, it was hypothesized that there will be concerns for hand and glove injuries for future exploration space missions, especially given the fact that the “total number of Extravehicular activity (EVA) hours and frequency” for lunar surface missions is expected to vastly increase [1]. It has been reported that the hands experienced the greatest “absolute numbers” of reported injuries and far exceeds other injuries during EVA [1, 2]. It was reported that the most fatiguing part of the surface EVA was the repetitive gripping tasks [3]. It was recommended that a “glove sub-team” be created to look at possible injury mechanism and mitigation strategies. Some of the recommendations that were suggested [1] are as follows: examine hand fatigue, utilize motion capture, examine the duration and frequency of hand movements, and identify frequent hand motions. We started assessing hardware and instrumentation to measure hand grasp activity in the pressurized glove environment. The purpose of this test was to perform a hardware evaluation for motion capture (MoCap) gloves obtained from StretchSense (Auckland, New Zealand). The specific gloves used were the Pro Fidelity and SuperSplay to determine the repeatability, reliability, feasibility, and useability inside of a pressurized gloved environment. Methods: The MoCap gloves were customized (e.g., battery/Bluetooth pack relocated to upper arm) to better suit the pressurized testing environment and protect the subject from unintentional injury (Fig. 1). Fourteen total subjects from different demographics (i.e., gender and pressurized glove experience level) participated in this test series. Testing included one session each of a baseline data collection (NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) building 21) and a spacesuit glove box (Fig. 2 at JSC building 7 room 2027) data collection (under vacuum down to 4.3 psid), where each session lasted 3-5 hours. Controlled and reproducible tasks to systematically evaluate the repeatability and reliability of the hardware were performed during baseline data collection. Additionally, subjects performed simulated EVA-like tasks in a pressurized gloved environment. For all sessions, MoCap gloves were placed on each of the subjects’ hands and the signal from it, or the raw capacitance (Fig. 3), was analysed. The raw capacitance was used to estimate the open and closed hand states between the testing conditions and allow us to provide an offset caused by the pressurized environment. Results & Discussion: Initial observation with the bare hands (baseline) condition showed that the MoCap gloves appeared to track grasping and releasing of the fingers (opening and closing fist) with both high- and low-speed conditions, while adduction and abduction of the fingers were not relatively tracked. A hardware evaluation was done outside of the glove box to assess the reliability and repeatability of the MoCap glove. In one task, a point force was applied to various locations on the back of the hand. When the point force was applied to the space between the 1st digit and the pointer finger, there was a noticeable distortion to the MoCap data. Another task examining an increasing force from a 10 lb. sandbag applied to the back of the hand while lying flat on a table, showed a constant flat line with only a distortion when the weight was increased or added to the back of the hand. Fig. 3 shows an object relocation task where you can see when each individual finger “opened” and “closed” (changed position) when picking up and setting down the dumbbell. When the fingers were stationary, the signal remained relatively flat compared to the peaks and valleys that can be observed in Fig. 3. This study showed promising results and imperative input into an attempt to discriminate between hand states across various functional tasks and should be evaluated with context to the repeatability and reliability outcomes. Depending on the task done inside of the pressurized glove box environment and outside, the results appear to be affected by many different factors (i.e., drift, pressure, hand size, etc.). Significance: If this hardware proves to be reliable and repeatable in determining the open and closed hand states then this may provide critical insight into assisting in the characterization of the pressurized gloved environment and the effect on crew member exertion level. Ultimately, this tool will provide useful data for quantifying the repetitive nature of EVA training and tasks. Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge the NASA Mars Campaign Office for providing funding for this research. Lastly, thanks to all the engineers and technicians at NASA JSC who helped with this data collection. References: [1] Reiber, et al. (2022), NASA/TM-20220007605; [2] Scheuring, et al. (2009), Av., Sp., and Envir. Med. 80(2). [3] Scheuring, et al. (2007), NASA/TM–2007–214755.

Rachel L Thompson↗

Magnetic Levitation for Long-Life Space Mechanisms: Technology Assessment and Remaining Challenges

Spacecraft mechanisms and mechanical systems must operate reliably and without failure to enable successful, long-term space missions. Such requirements place demands upon the tribological elements, especially bearings, which are frequently difficult or impossible to satisfy. Several recent, high-profile bearing failures in coolant fluid pumps and attitude control system (ACS) momentum wheels provided the impetus to assess the state-of-the-art non-contacting magnetic levitation-based, rotor support technologies.Magnetic levitation technology continues to gain acceptance for terrestrial applications and has been spaceflight demonstrated in mechanical systems such as reaction wheels (RWs) but is not in widespread use. The specific reasons inhibiting this new technology are not readily clear but include cost, weight, performance, and perceived risk. These reasons arise from a variety of real and perceived technical limitations in areas like materials, controls, sensors, thermal management and others. This white paper seeks to determine, define, and quantify the technical hurdles and gaps that must be overcome to enable the broad adoption of non-contacting bearings for long-life space mechanisms. It is anticipated that a better understanding of this complex topic may guide resource investments and clear the path to improved performance mechanical systems for spacecraft.

Samuel A Howard↗

Noninteractive macroscopic reliability model for whisker-reinforced ceramic composites

Considerable research is underway in the field of material science focusing on incorporating silicon carbide whiskers into silicon nitride and alumina matrices. These composites show the requisite thermal stability and thermal shock resistance necessary for use as components in advanced gas turbines and heat exchangers. This paper presents a macroscopic noninteractive reliability model for whisker-reinforced ceramic composites. The theory is multiaxial and is applicable to composites that can be characterized as transversely isotropic. Enough processing data exists to suggest this idealization encompasses a significantly large class of fabricated components. A qualitative assessment of the model is made by presenting reliability surfaces in several different stress spaces and for different values of model parameters.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

Importance of appropriate genome information for the design of mating type primers in black and yellow morel populations

Abstract Morels are highly prized edible fungi where sexual reproduction is essential for fruiting-body production. As a result, a comprehensive understanding of their sexual reproduction is of great interest. Central to this is the identification of the reproductive strategies used by morels. Sexual reproduction in fungi is controlled by mating-type ( MAT ) genes and morels are thought to be mainly heterothallic with two idiomorphs, MAT1-1 and MAT1-2. Genomic sequencing of black (Elata clade) and yellow (Esculenta clade) morel species has led to the development of PCR primers designed to amplify genes from the two idiomorphs for rapid genotyping of isolates from these two clades. To evaluate the design and theoretical performance of these primers we performed a thorough bioinformatic investigation, including the detection of the MAT region in publicly available Morchella genomes and in-silico PCR analyses. All examined genomes, including those used for primer design, appeared to be heterothallic. This indicates an inherent fault in the original primer design which utilized a single Morchella genome, as the use of two genomes with complementary mating types would be required to design accurate primers for both idiomorphs. Furthermore, potential off-targets were identified for some of the previously published primer sets, but verification was challenging due to lack of adequate genomic information and detailed methodologies for primer design. Examinations of the black morel specific primer pairs (MAT11L/R and MAT22L/R) indicated the MAT22 primers would correctly target and amplify the MAT1-2 idiomorph, but the MAT11 primers appear to be capable of amplifying incorrect off-targets within the genome. The yellow morel primer pairs (EMAT1-1 L/R and EMAT1-2 L/R) appear to have reporting errors, as the published primer sequences are dissimilar with reported amplicon sequences and the EMAT1-2 primers appear to amplify the RNA polymerase II subunit ( RPB2 ) gene. The lack of the reference genome used in primer design and descriptive methodology made it challenging to fully assess the apparent issues with the primers for this clade. In conclusion, additional work is still required for the generation of reliable primers to investigate mating types in morels and to assess their performance on different clades and across multiple geographical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessments of a Turbulence Model Based on Menter's Modification to Rotta's Two-Equation Model

The main objective of this paper is to construct a turbulence model with a more reliable second equation simulating length scale. In the present paper, we assess the length scale equation based on Menter s modification to Rotta s two-equation model. Rotta shows that a reliable second equation can be formed in an exact transport equation from the turbulent length scale L and kinetic energy. Rotta s equation is well suited for a term-by-term modeling and shows some interesting features compared to other approaches. The most important difference is that the formulation leads to a natural inclusion of higher order velocity derivatives into the source terms of the scale equation, which has the potential to enhance the capability of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) to simulate unsteady flows. The model is implemented in the PAB3D solver with complete formulation, usage methodology, and validation examples to demonstrate its capabilities. The detailed studies include grid convergence. Near-wall and shear flows cases are documented and compared with experimental and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) data. The results from this formulation are as good or better than the well-known SST turbulence model and much better than k-epsilon results. Overall, the study provides useful insights into the model capability in predicting attached and separated flows.

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.↗

Sedimentation and Nonlinear Trapping in Texas Reservoirs Identified Using Remote Sensing and Bathymetric Survey Records

Decreasing reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation poses great challenges to aging U.S. reservoirs, as it reduces the efficacy and reliability of their socio‐economic services. However, systematic assessments of reservoir sedimentation rates and associated issues remain limited because of sparse and infrequent bathymetry survey data. In this study, we use remote sensing‐driven estimates of sediment concentrations to identify regions experiencing rapid reservoir capacity loss, as observed in repeated bathymetry surveys. Our analysis focuses on Texas, where one of the most reliable state‐level reservoir capacity loss data sets is available through a unique long‐term monitoring program by the Texas Water Development Board. We find that reservoirs with large storage capacities and high sedimentation rate are concentrated in Northeast Texas. We also show that reduced forest, increased barren land, and erosive soil properties are co‐varying with high reservoir sedimentation rates. Temporal changes in the longitudinal gradient of the remotely sensed sediment flux highlight the nonlinear nature of sediment trapping processes, and can be used to estimate the reservoir storage capacity loss over time. In combination with standard bathymetry surveys, our approach shows potential for more cost‐effective and frequent assessment of reservoir storage loss.

Lee, Jiyong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000198957406)↗

Certification

Objective 1: Provide regulators with a methodology for development of airworthiness requirements for certification of UAS. a) Rationale: a comprehensive methodology does not currently exist to support development of regulation for certification of UAS. Regulation is essential to enable routine access to the NAS. b) Approach: 1) assess existing approaches and classification schemes for deriving acceptable means of compliance to airworthiness requirements. 2) investigate a service-based approach to classification of UAS. 3) conduct comparative analysis of different methodologies. 4) work with FAA to determine best approach and conduct case study. 5) participate in regulatory/standards organizations developing safety and performance requirements for UAS. Objective 2: Provide regulators and industry with hazard and risk-related data to support criteria for UAS type design. a) Rationale: There is presently little UAS specific data (incident, accident, and reliability), especially in a civil context, to support risk assessment and development of standards and regulation. b) Approach: Identify gaps in existing data, provide measured data as needed, and formulate recommendations by: 1) evaluating UAS incident/accident data collection efforts and determining additional support necessary for regulation. 2) assessing UAS-specific hazards and risks. 3) evaluating need for reliability data for UAS-unique systems, components and subsystem, and determining additional measurement requirements. 4) developing guidance and best practices for UAS type design.

Hayhurst, Kelly↗

A Rapid Population Assessment Method for Wild Pigs Using Baited Cameras at 3 Study Sites

ABSTRACT Reliable and efficient population estimates are a critical need for effective management of invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ). We evaluated the use of 10‐day camera grids for rapid population assessment (RPA) of wild pigs at 3 study sites that varied in vegetation communities and wild pig densities. Study areas included Buck Island Ranch, Florida; Tejon Ranch, California; and the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA, during 2016–2018. Rapid population assessments grids were composed of baited camera traps spaced approximately 500 or 750 m apart. Two RPA grids were deployed per study site and each grid was deployed twice (4–6 months apart) to assess changes in response to season or population control efforts. We assessed the ability of RPA grids to track population trends, how camera number influenced estimate precision, and how relative abundance indices related to density estimates. We detected changes in occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates following removal operations and between seasons, but the ability of RPA grids to track population trends was dependent on the statistical method used and number of cameras traps. Increasing the number of cameras traps used in RPA grids increased precision, and these results can be used in determining survey design and estimate choice. We found that estimates of occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates were positively correlated with spatially explicit capture–recapture density estimates. Thus, these less labor‐intensive estimates from RPA grids showed potential to index the relative abundance of wild pigs in some systems. Our evaluation of RPAs indicates that using study‐specific combinations of statistical method and number of cameras can provide a useful tool for monitoring wild pig presence, tracking population trends, and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Schlichting, Peter E.↗

Study on application of aerospace technology to improve surgical implants

The areas where aerospace technology could be used to improve the reliability and performance of metallic, orthopedic implants was assessed. Specifically, comparisons were made of material controls, design approaches, analytical methods and inspection approaches being used in the implant industry with hardware for the aerospace industries. Several areas for possible improvement were noted such as increased use of finite element stress analysis and fracture control programs on devices where the needs exist for maximum reliability and high structural performance.

Johnson, R. E.↗

An empirical analysis of supply offers in the ERCOT operating reserves markets

Here, this paper seeks to improve theoretical and empirical understanding of supplier dynamics in wholesale markets for operating reserves, which have been understudied compared to energy markets. We begin by identifying several economic factors that unit owners may consider when submitting offers into operating reserves auctions in two-stage, co-optimized markets common across much of North America. Next, we analyze historical offer data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market to assess whether actual reserve market behavior aligns with expectations based on economic theory, as well as with commonly used assumptions in electricity market modeling efforts. We find that the aggregate supply of operating reserves in ERCOT varies meaningfully over time, becoming more expensive during summer afternoons, which is consistent with theoretical expectations but contradicts the typical modeling assumption of temporally invariant reserve offers. Analysis of offers made by individual units uncovers additional insights, such as the existence of large offer pattern differences by unit owner and the tendency of battery storage units to submit very low offer prices. We conclude by discussing how our findings can be integrated into electricity market modeling assumptions to improve alignment with observed operating reserve offer inputs and pricing outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantum-Chemically Informed Machine Learning: Prediction of Energies of Organic Molecules with 10 to 14 Non-hydrogen Atoms

High-fidelity quantum-chemical calculations can provide accurate predictions of molecular energies, but their high computational costs limit their utility, especially for larger molecules. We have shown in previous work that machine learning models trained on high-level quantum-chemical calculations (G4MP2) for organic molecules with one to nine non-hydrogen atoms can provide accurate predictions for other molecules of comparable size at much lower costs. Here we demonstrate that such models can also be used to effectively predict energies of molecules larger than those in the training set. To implement this strategy, we first established a set of 191 molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms having reliable experimental enthalpies of formation. We then assessed the accuracy of computed G4MP2 enthalpies of formation for these 191 molecules. The error in the G4MP2 results was somewhat larger than that for smaller molecules, and the reason for this increase is discussed. Two density functional methods, B3LYP and ωB97X-D, were also used on this set of molecules, with ωB97X-D found to perform better than B3LYP at predicting energies. The G4MP2 energies for the 191 molecules were then predicted using these two functionals with two machine learning methods, the FCHL-Δ and SchNet-Δ models, with the learning done on calculated energies of the one to nine non-hydrogen atom molecules. The better-performing model, FCHL-Δ, gave atomization energies of the 191 organic molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms within 0.4 kcal/mol of their G4MP2 energies. Thus, this work demonstrates that quantum-chemically informed machine learning can be used to successfully predict the energies of large organic molecules whose size is beyond that in the training set.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing the energy equity benefits of energy storage solutions

Safety, reliability, efficiency, and affordability are no longer the sole tenets of electric grid planning. The evolving social and policy climate have placed new explicit requirements on the electric grid, including resilience, decarbonization, and energy equity and justice. Integrating energy equity strategies into modern grid design is intended to achieve a fair and just distribution of benefits within the energy system. This study aims to characterize the energy equity and community benefits of energy storage systems (ESS) under the following three use-case models: utility ESS that are operated within the distribution system; community-owned ESS; and behind-the-meter ESS that are customer-owned to serve the household. The goal of this energy equity analysis is to characterize the environmental, economic, and social benefits of ESS through applied metrics such as energy burden, energy poverty, energy vulnerability, job creation, and more. A 13.8 kV, 265 node representative feeder corresponding to the hot-humid climate of Louisiana, chosen for its high energy burden, frequent hurricanes and outage events, was used to perform a storage adequacy analysis for six different outage scenarios to determine energy storage access for each use-case. The results of this analysis are then used to characterize both the grid and equity benefits of storage solutions to inform a prioritization framework matching community needs with system preferences for utility planning processes, market regulations, and the wider network of energy system stakeholders.

Energy Equity, energy justice, equity, reliability↗

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗