SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Random variables”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico by Integrating GEDI, Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 Data

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) is required to better understand the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and to support international policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Mexico is one of the countries having great potential for the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (or UN-REDD program) and there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification systems at a national level. As an effort under NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we developed a machine learning model using multi-stream remote sensing measurements as well as topographic data to create a high spatial resolution AGBD map (~100 m) over Mexico (circa 2020). The remote sensing data includes Global Ecosystem Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) lidar, Sentinel 1 Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR), and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery (MSI). GEDI onboard the International Space Station provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. Our analysis indicates that the developed random forest model can capture 63 % of the spatial variation (RMSE = 33.7 Mg/ha) of AGBD of Mexican forests. We find that shortwave infrared bands of Sentinel-2 MSI and topographical variables from elevation data are the most important variables in the developed AGBD model. Our study highlights methodological opportunities in synergistic uses of multiple sensors for large-scale forest AGBD mapping and shows potential for retrospective analysis and operational monitoring of forest AGBD and its dynamics.

Taejin Park↗

NASA NTRS2017

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment

The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6.

Zwack, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Instrumentation of the variable-angle magneto-optic ellipsometer and its application to M-O media and other non-magnetic films

A new and comprehensive dielectric tensor characterization instrument is presented for characterization of magneto-optical recording media and non-magnetic thin films. Random and systematic errors of the system are studied. A series of TbFe, TbFeCo, and Co/Pt samples with different composition and thicknesses are characterized for their optical and magneto-optical properties. The optical properties of several non-magnetic films are also measured.

Zhou, Andy F.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Parameter identification using a creeping-random-search algorithm

A creeping-random-search algorithm is applied to different types of problems in the field of parameter identification. The studies are intended to demonstrate that a random-search algorithm can be applied successfully to these various problems, which often cannot be handled by conventional deterministic methods, and, also, to introduce methods that speed convergence to an extremal of the problem under investigation. Six two-parameter identification problems with analytic solutions are solved, and two application problems are discussed in some detail. Results of the study show that a modified version of the basic creeping-random-search algorithm chosen does speed convergence in comparison with the unmodified version. The results also show that the algorithm can successfully solve problems that contain limits on state or control variables, inequality constraints (both independent and dependent, and linear and nonlinear), or stochastic models.

Parrish, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Model studies of the beam-filling error for rain-rate retrieval with microwave radiometers

Low-frequency (less than 20 GHz) single-channel microwave retrievals of rain rate encounter the problem of beam-filling error. This error stems from the fact that the relationship between microwave brightness temperature and rain rate is nonlinear, coupled with the fact that the field of view is large or comparable to important scales of variability of the rain field. This means that one may not simply insert the area average of the brightness temperature into the formula for rain rate without incurring both bias and random error. The statistical heterogeneity of the rain-rate field in the footprint of the instrument is key to determining the nature of these errors. This paper makes use of a series of random rain-rate fields to study the size of the bias and random error associated with beam filling. A number of examples are analyzed in detail: the binomially distributed field, the gamma, the Gaussian, the mixed gamma, the lognormal, and the mixed lognormal ('mixed' here means there is a finite probability of no rain rate at a point of space-time). Of particular interest are the applicability of a simple error formula due to Chiu and collaborators and a formula that might hold in the large field of view limit. It is found that the simple formula holds for Gaussian rain-rate fields but begins to fail for highly skewed fields such as the mixed lognormal. While not conclusively demonstrated here, it is suggested that the notionof climatologically adjusting the retrievals to remove the beam-filling bias is a reasonable proposition.

Ha, Eunho↗

NASA NTRS2013

Vibration Testing of Electrical Cables to Quantify Loads at Tie-Down Locations

The standard method for defining static equivalent structural load factors for components is based on Mile s equation. Unless test data is available, 5% critical damping is assumed for all components when calculating loads. Application of this method to electrical cable tie-down hardware often results in high loads, which often exceed the capability of typical tie-down options such as cable ties and P-clamps. Random vibration testing of electrical cables was used to better understand the factors that influence component loads: natural frequency, damping, and mass participation. An initial round of vibration testing successfully identified variables of interest, checked out the test fixture and instrumentation, and provided justification for removing some conservatism in the standard method. Additional testing is planned that will include a larger range of cable sizes for the most significant contributors to load as variables to further refine loads at cable tie-down points. Completed testing has provided justification to reduce loads at cable tie-downs by 45% with additional refinement based on measured cable natural frequencies.

Dutson, Joseph D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Tool for Generation of MAC/GMC Representative Unit Cell for CMC/PMC Analysis

This document describes a recently developed analysis tool that enhances the resident capabilities of the Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) 4.0. This tool is especially useful in analyzing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), where higher fidelity with improved accuracy of local response is needed. The tool, however, can be used for analyzing polymer matrix composites (PMCs) as well. MAC/GMC 4.0 is a composite material and laminate analysis software developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. The software package has been built around the concept of the generalized method of cells (GMC). The computer code is developed with a user friendly framework, along with a library of local inelastic, damage, and failure models. Further, application of simulated thermomechanical loading, generation of output results, and selection of architectures to represent the composite material have been automated to increase the user friendliness, as well as to make it more robust in terms of input preparation and code execution. Finally, classical lamination theory has been implemented within the software, wherein GMC is used to model the composite material response of each ply. Thus, the full range of GMC composite material capabilities is available for analysis of arbitrary laminate configurations as well. The primary focus of the current effort is to provide a graphical user interface (GUI) capability that generates a number of different user-defined repeating unit cells (RUCs). In addition, the code has provisions for generation of a MAC/GMC-compatible input text file that can be merged with any MAC/GMC input file tailored to analyze composite materials. Although the primary intention was to address the three different constituents and phases that are usually present in CMCs-namely, fibers, matrix, and interphase-it can be easily modified to address two-phase polymer matrix composite (PMC) materials where an interphase is absent. Currently, the tool capability includes generation of RUCs for square packing, hexagonal packing, and random fiber packing as well as RUCs based on actual composite micrographs. All these options have the fibers modeled as having a circular cross-sectional area. In addition, a simplified version of RUC is provided where the fibers are treated as having a square cross section and are distributed randomly. This RUC facilitates a speedy analysis using the higher fidelity version of GMC known as HFGMC. The first four mentioned options above support uniform subcell discretization. The last one has variable subcell sizes due to the primary intention of keeping the RUC size to a minimum to gain the speed ups using the higher fidelity version of MAC. The code is implemented within the MATLAB (The Mathworks, Inc., Natick, MA) developmental framework; however, a standalone application that does not need a priori MATLAB installation is also created with the aid of the MATLAB compiler.

Materials Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Field Methods for Acquiring Ground Reflectance at Railroad Valley Playa for Spectral Calibration of Satellite Data

Ground reflectance was acquired at the Railroad Valley Playa calibration site in Nevada USA using different methods of collection. The data was collected near the time and date of Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 satellite overpasses so an inter-comparison could be made with the reflectance products to determine which method was more suitable for vicarious calibration. The field spectrometers and reference panels were characterized before the field campaign. A continuous acquisition method was compared to stop and measure collections. Both acquisition methods were collected along an 80 m east-west transect as well as for a series of north-south transects over an 80 x 320 m area, with the stop and measure method being performed at random sampling locations. The measurements were performed using two field spectrometers by three teams of two people to compare the repeatability. The aim of the field campaign was to determine the variability due to the operator and the method of collection.

Lau, Ian C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Field Methods for Acquiring Ground Reflectance at Railroad Valley Playa for Spectral Calibration of Satellite Data

Lau, Ian C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Defining Change Thresholds: What Change Is Outside Typical Sources of Variation?

Researchers often have a difficult time defining meaningful thresholds for change. We sometimes identify subtle changes but what amount of change is beyond typical sources of variation? This is especially complicated when trying to understand new disease pathogenesis like the constellation of eye changes leading to Spaceflight-associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS). To support decision makers in defining minimal meaningful change, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate innate sources of variability such as natural day to day variation. Healthy subjects were recruited and imaged with MRI, OCT, and US on separate days and measured by several technicians. Models were developed specifying random effects for the sources of variation – between left and right eyes, within-individuals over time, between raters, and finally between individuals. This allowed us to find the posterior distribution for the total typical variation, within an eye, which we use to define a threshold where change beyond typical sources of variation is likely. This threshold is now used as our earliest indicator of systematic increase in Total Retinal Thickness (a precursor to optic disc edema).

Millennia Young↗

NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗

NASA NTRS2001

Bias Correction and Random Error Characterization for the Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Wind Measurements

A new approach to the analysis of systematic and random observation errors is presented in which the error statistics are obtained using forecast data rather than observations from a different instrument type. The analysis is carried out at an intermediate retrieval level, instead of the more typical state variable space. This method is carried out on measurements made by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). HRDI, a limb sounder, is the only satellite instrument measuring winds in the stratosphere, and the only instrument of any kind making global wind measurements in the upper atmosphere. HRDI measures doppler shifts in the two different O2 absorption bands (alpha and B) and the retrieved products are tangent point Line-of-Sight wind component (level 2 retrieval) and UV winds (level 3 retrieval). This analysis is carried out on a level 1.9 retrieval, in which the contributions from different points along the line-of-sight have not been removed. Biases are calculated from O-F (observed minus forecast) LOS wind components and are separated into a measurement parameter space consisting of 16 different values. The bias dependence on these parameters (plus an altitude dependence) is used to create a bias correction scheme carried out on the level 1.9 retrieval. The random error component is analyzed by separating the gamma and B band observations and locating observation pairs where both bands are very nearly looking at the same location at the same time. It is shown that the two observation streams are uncorrelated and that this allows the forecast error variance to be estimated. The bias correction is found to cut the effective observation error variance in half.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1973

A new field-laboratory methodology for assessing human response to noise

Gross measures of community annoyance with intrusive noises have been made in a number of real environment surveys which indicate that aircraft noise may have to be reduced 30-40 EPNdb before it will generally be considered acceptable. Interview studies, however, cannot provide the precise information which is needed by noise abatement engineers of the variable human response to different types and degrees of noise exposure. A new methodological field-survey approach has been developed to provide such information. The integrated attitudes and experiences of a random sample of subjects in the real environment are obtained by a prior field survey. Then these subjects record their more precise responses to controlled noise exposures in a new realistic laboratory. The laboratory is a sound chamber furnished as a typical living room (18 ft x 14 ft) and subjects watch a color TV program while they judge simulated aircraft flyovers that occur at controlled levels and intervals. Methodological experiments indicate that subjects in the laboratory have the sensation that the airplanes are actually moving overhead across the ceiling of the chamber. It was also determined that annoyance judgments in the laboratory stabilize after three flyovers are heard prior to a judgment of annoyance.

Borsky, P. N.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Measuring the direct sky brightness on CCD images

A new method of determining the background sky brightness for stellar photometric measurements with CCDs is described. By fitting and subtracting stellar profiles from a CCD image, one can measure the sky brightness directly at the position of each star after subtraction. These sky values can then be used for the next round of profile fitting and subtraction. The 'direct sky' brightness for a star is the convergent value of the sky after a few such iterations and is the most direct measurement of the line-of-sight contribution of the background to the observed magnitude of a star. Using this method, a decrease of the random photometric errors by more than a factor of two over standard methods is possible, with the most significant improvements for stars in very crowded regions and areas of strong and highly variable nebulosity.

Parker, Joel WM.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Use of CASES-97 Observations to Assess and Parameterize the Impact of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Area-Average Surface Heat Fluxes for Large-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Models

To understand the effects of land-surface heterogeneity and the interactions between the land-surface and the planetary boundary layer at different scales, we develop a multiscale data set. This data set, based on the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES97) observations, includes atmospheric, surface, and sub-surface observations obtained from a dense observation network covering a large region on the order of 100 km. We use this data set to drive three land-surface models (LSMs) to generate multi-scale (with three resolutions of 1, 5, and 10 kilometers) gridded surface heat flux maps for the CASES area. Upon validating these flux maps with measurements from surface station and aircraft, we utilize them to investigate several approaches for estimating the area-integrated surface heat flux for the CASES97 domain of 71x74 square kilometers, which is crucial for land surface model development/validation and area water and energy budget studies. This research is aimed at understanding the relative contribution of random turbulence versus organized mesoscale circulations to the area-integrated surface flux at the scale of 100 kilometers, and identifying the most important effective parameters for characterizing the subgrid-scale variability for large-scale atmosphere-hydrology models.

Chen, Fei↗

NASA NTRS2003

Chemical Analysis of Primitive Objects Using a Slitless Ultraviolet Meteor Spectrometer (CAPO-SUMS)

Measure the elemental composition in both random meteors and in the bolides forming specific meteor streams (these are traceable to specific small bodies in the solar system). These will yield the average chemical composition and degree of chemical variability in a statistically significant number of planetesimals. CAPO-SUMS is functionally equivalent to a series of multiple, small-body sample analysis missions, but provides much more analytical capability than is possible on any orbital or flyby mission due to the vaporization, ionization and ultraviolet emission from the ablating bolide as it enters the atmosphere. CAPO-SUMS will provide a chemical context from which the detailed analytical studies provided by a cometary or asteroidal lander mission can be interpreted.

Nuth, J. A.↗