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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Compensation of heat load deformations using adaptive optics for the ALS upgrade: a wave optics study

In this paper, a realistic wave optics simulation method has been developed to study how wavefront distortions originating from heat load deformations can be corrected using adaptive X-ray optics. Several planned soft X-ray and tender X-ray insertion-device beamlines in the Advanced Light Source upgrade rely on a common design principle. A flat, first mirror intercepts the white beam; vertical focusing is provided by a variable-line-space monochromator; and horizontal focusing comes from a single, pre-figured, adaptive mirror. A variety of scenarios to cope with thermal distortion in the first mirror are studied by finite-element analysis. The degradation of the intensity distribution at the focal plane is analyzed and the adaptive optics that correct it is modeled. The range of correctable wavefront errors across the operating range of the beamlines is reported in terms of mirror curvature and spatial frequencies. The software developed is a one-dimensional wavefront propagation package made available in the OASYS suite, an adaptable, customizable and efficient beamline modeling platform.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing crystalline defects in single nanoparticles from angular correlations of single-shot diffracted X-rays

Characterizing and controlling the uniformity of nanoparticles is crucial for their application in science and technology because crystalline defects in the nanoparticles strongly affect their unique properties. Recently, ultra-short and ultra-bright X-ray pulses provided by X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) opened up the possibility of structure determination of nanometre-scale matter with Å spatial resolution. However, it is often difficult to reconstruct the 3D structural information from single-shot X-ray diffraction patterns owing to the random orientation of the particles. This report proposes an analysis approach for characterizing defects in nanoparticles using wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) data from free-flying single nanoparticles. The analysis method is based on the concept of correlated X-ray scattering, in which correlations of scattered X-ray are used to recover detailed structural information. WAXS experiments of xenon nanoparticles, or clusters, were conducted at an XFEL facility in Japan by using the SPring-8 Ångstrom compact free-electron laser (SACLA). Bragg spots in the recorded single-shot X-ray diffraction patterns showed clear angular correlations, which offered significant structural information on the nanoparticles. The experimental angular correlations were reproduced by numerical simulation in which kinematical theory of diffraction was combined with geometric calculations. We also explain the diffuse scattering intensity as being due to the stacking faults in the xenon clusters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial gravitational waves from black hole evaporation in standard and nonstandard cosmologies

Gravitons radiated from light, evaporating black holes contribute to the stochastic background of gravitational waves. The spectrum of such emission depends on both the mass and the spin of the black holes, as well as on the redshifting that occurs between the black hole formation and today. This, in turn, depends on the expansion history of the Universe, which is largely unknown and unconstrained at times prior to the synthesis of light elements. Here, we explore the features of the stochastic background of gravitational waves from black hole evaporation under a broad range of possible early cosmological histories. The resulting gravitational wave signals typically peak at very high frequencies, and offer opportunities for proposed ultrahigh-frequency gravitational wave detectors. Lower-frequency peaks are also possible, albeit with a suppressed intensity that is likely well below the threshold of detectability. We find that the largest intensity peaks correspond to cosmologies dominated by fluids with equations of state that have large pressure-to-density ratios. Such scenarios can be constrained on the basis of violation of Δ⁢N eff bounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molybdenum and silver photoemission survey spectra from hard x-rays

Electron emission from thick polished samples of polycrystalline molybdenum (Mo) and single crystalline $\langle$111$\rangle$ silver (Ag) was measured with hard x-ray photoemission spectroscopy. Six different excitation x-ray energies were used, nominally 8.0, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0, 18.0, and 21.5 keV. Survey spectra were recorded with each excitation to a kinetic energy of at most 15 keV, often capturing the entire emission range. The Mo 1s core peak was measured. Detailed LMM Auger spectra of Mo show marked increases in intensity and altered shape when x-ray energy exceeds the Mo 1s binding energy. The Mo and Ag L-shell photoelectron peaks are measured at four x-ray energies up to 18 keV showing the transition from 2p3/2 to 2s photoionization dominance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microphysics of Relativistic Collisionless Electron-ion-positron Shocks

Abstract We perform particle-in-cell simulations to elucidate the microphysics of relativistic weakly magnetized shocks loaded with electron-positron pairs. Various external magnetizations σ ≲ 10 −4 and pair-loading factors Z ± ≲ 10 are studied, where Z ± is the number of loaded electrons and positrons per ion. We find the following: (1) The shock becomes mediated by the ion Larmor gyration in the mean field when σ exceeds a critical value σ L that decreases with Z ± . At σ ≲ σ L the shock is mediated by particle scattering in the self-generated microturbulent fields, the strength and scale of which decrease with Z ± , leading to lower σ L . (2) The energy fraction carried by the post-shock pairs is robustly in the range between 20% and 50% of the upstream ion energy. The mean energy per post-shock electron scales as E ¯ e ∝ Z ± + 1 − 1 . (3) Pair loading suppresses nonthermal ion acceleration at magnetizations as low as σ ≈ 5 × 10 −6 . The ions then become essentially thermal with mean energy E ¯ i , while electrons form a nonthermal tail, extending from E ∼ Z ± + 1 − 1 E ¯ i to E ¯ i . When σ = 0, particle acceleration is enhanced by the formation of intense magnetic cavities that populate the precursor during the late stages of shock evolution. Here, the maximum energy of the nonthermal ions and electrons keeps growing over the duration of the simulation. Alongside the simulations, we develop theoretical estimates consistent with the numerical results. Our findings have important implications for models of early gamma-ray burst afterglows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Self-Magnetic Pinch (SMP) Radiographic Diode Performance on RITS-6 at Sandia National Laboratories

The goals of an electron beam-driven radiographic source are the focusing of high current at high voltage to a minimal spot size with excellent shot-to-shot reproducibility. The Self-Magnetic Pinch (SMP) diode makes use of such an intense electron beam impinging on a high-atomic weight (tantalum) converter, a counter-streaming ion beam to help minimize the spot size, and operation in a magnetic field-free diode region which further encourages small spot size. Through a series of diode development experiments, output voltages up to 12.5 MV and output currents up to 225 kA have been characterized, with resulting spot sizes below ~ few mm. Scaling studies with parameter variation, such as diode aspect ratio and anode-cathode (A-K) gap variation, give systematic validation to what has heretofore been noted anecdotally by other research groups. While the lack of an imbedded magnetic field helps minimize the SMP spot size, a secondary result may be the generation of beam instabilities which can terminate the radiation pulse. There is anecdotal evidence that in-situ DC heating of the diode region can help stabilize the beam pinch. Clear experimental evidence exists that DC heating/RF cleaning results in better control over the counter-streaming ion population. Expanded use of spatial dose-rate detection is shown to yield new insights into electron beam dynamics in the SMP diode. An attendant study of the SMP diode as a load for an Inductive Voltage Adder (IVA) driver leads to insights into the behavior of the IVA-SMP diode configuration, viewed as a total system, and yields constraints on the overall impedance behavior of the SMP diode load.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Very-Low-Frequency transmitters bifurcate energetic electron belt in near-earth space

Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) transmitters operate worldwide mostly at frequencies of 10–30 kilohertz for submarine communications. While it has been of intense scientific interest and practical importance to understand whether VLF transmitters can affect the natural environment of charged energetic particles, for decades there remained little direct observational evidence that revealed the effects of these VLF transmitters in geospace. Here we report a radially bifurcated electron belt formation at energies of tens of kiloelectron volts (keV) at altitudes of ~0.8–1.5 Earth radii on timescales over 10 days. Using Fokker-Planck diffusion simulations, we provide quantitative evidence that VLF transmitter emissions that leak from the Earth-ionosphere waveguide are primarily responsible for bifurcating the energetic electron belt, which typically exhibits a single-peak radial structure in near-Earth space. Since energetic electrons pose a potential danger to satellite operations, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of mitigation of natural particle radiation environment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

β-decay feeding intensity distributions for 103,104m Nb

The β decays of 103,104m Nb were studied with the Summing NaI(Tl) (SuN) detector at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory. The β-decay feeding intensity distribution I β (E) for each isotope was extracted by measuring γ rays in coincidence with an emitted electron. The I β (E) was extracted via the total absorption spectroscopy technique. The I β (E) for each nucleus was compared to predictions made by the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) model which is commonly used to calculate β-decay properties for astrophysical applications. The main goal was to provide experimental data for neutron-rich nuclei, relevant to the astrophysical r process. In addition, the extracted β-decay feeding intensity distributions can lead to a better understanding of nuclear structure in a region of rapid structure changes around A = 100. Finally, experimental data for 104m Nb are also of interest to antineutrino studies of nuclear reactors

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Particle Formation and Growth in the Houston Atmosphere During TRACER (Final Report)

From 2020-2025, researchers from UC Irvine, UC Riverside, and Colorado State University collaborated on a Department of Energy-funded project to understand how airborne particles form and grow in urban atmospheres, conducting an intensive field campaign in Houston, Texas during summer 2022. Using advanced instruments to measure gas-phase chemicals, particle composition, and a specialized chamber to study particle growth, the team discovered that sulfur-containing compounds from industrial and power plant emissions are the dominant driver of new particle formation in Houston, with particles typically forming locally in the city and growing as air moves away in the urban plume. The research revealed an important methodological insight: measurements from fixed ground stations can be misleading when interpreting how particles actually evolve as air masses move, which has significant implications for how scientists worldwide interpret atmospheric observations. These findings improve understanding of urban air quality and help reduce uncertainties in climate models, since these particles play critical roles in cloud formation and Earth's radiation balance, while also providing detailed information about ultrafine particle composition relevant to public health. The project trained three doctoral students, developed enhanced computer models for urban particle formation, and made all data publicly available through the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data archive for use by the broader scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensity of a weak 519-keV γ ray following β decay of the superallowed emitter 34 Ar determined via the 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl reaction

The predominant branch in the β decay of 34 Ar is the superallowed 0 + → 0 + transition to the ground state of 34 Cl. To determine its important branching ratio one must first establish the ratios for the competing Gamow-Teller branches based on the measured intensities of γ rays subsequently emitted from the excited states they populate in 34 Cl. The strongest of these branches populates the 1 + state at 666 keV in 34 Cl, which has three possible γ-decay paths. Here, we report here a measurement of the decay of this state, which we populated via resonant proton capture in the reaction 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl. We find that the intensity of the 519-keV γ-ray path is 1.46(19)% relative to that of the 666-keV path. This result is critical to new precise measurements of the superallowed decay of 34 Ar.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2022

Positron Emission Intensity in the Decay of 86 gY for Use in Dosimetry Studies

The β + -emitting radionuclide 86 gY (t 1/2 = 14.7 h) forms a matched-pair with the β – -emitting therapeutic radionuclide 90Y (t 1/2 = 2.7 d) for theranostic application in medicine. This approach demands a precise knowledge of the positron emission probability of the PET nuclide which was until recently rather uncertain for 86 gY. In this work, an 86 gY source of high radionuclidic purity was prepared and a direct measurement of the positron emission intensity per 100 decay of the parent (hereafter “positron emission intensity”) was performed using high-resolution HPGe detector γ-ray spectroscopy. The electron capture intensity was also determined as an additional check by measuring the K α and K β X-rays of energies 14.1 and 15.8 keV, respectively, using a low energy HPGe detector. From those measurements, normalized values of 27.2 ± 2.0% for β + -emission and 72.8 ± 2.0% for EC were obtained. These results are in excellent agreement with values recently reported in the literature based on a detailed decay scheme study.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Fiber-Bragg-Grating-Based Unique Identifier for Use in Tags and Seals

Tags and seals are important tools used in safeguards regimes for the control of nuclear materials. Vital to a successful tag or seal is the ability to securely, uniquely, and positively distinguish it from others of the same kind. This allows one to validate that items entered into an inspection regime to which the tag or seal is affixed are as claimed. We are developing a new type of unique identifier (UID) for such applications that is based on fiber-Bragg grating (FBG) technology. The index of refraction of the core glass of a fiber optic can be locally and permanently altered if sensitized fibers are exposed to intense ultraviolet light. This can be used to create index modulations with a regular periodicity comparable to the wavelengths of light with which the fiber is used. If broadband illumination is sent down the fiber, any light that is in resonance with the modulations will be reflected back to the input end of the fiber where it can be detected. The shape of the returned spectrum can be set by the modulation pattern written into the fiber’s core. We take advantage of these properties to create a compact UID that contains several FBGs potted into a monolithic body. By connecting the UID to an optical interrogator, the complex spectral return can be uniquely identified with a short measurement, providing a robust identification. As a device based on narrowband spectral returns, FBGs are inherently radiation tolerant, making them ideal for use with nuclear materials. Further, they can be read out remotely via a long fiber optic or locally via brief connection to a portable optical interrogator. Because the spectral signature of FBGs is sensitive to external mechanical perturbations, we are exploring the ability to reversibly alter the signature obtained from the UID by applying controlled mechanical forces with a simple device. Such a “key” will allow different stakeholders to obtain their own unique signature from the device, providing a new level of surety to safeguards inspections.

Ziock, Klaus-Peter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of irradiation embrittlement effect on fatigue life of a pressurized-water reactor pressure vessel using the fracture toughness master curve approach

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a critical structural component in pressurized-water reactors, and it is designed to withstand extreme conditions, such as high pressures, elevated temperatures, and prolonged radiation exposure. Ensuring RPV integrity is essential for the safe and reliable long-term operation of nuclear power plants, especially as aging mechanisms such as fatigue and irradiation embrittlement pose increased risks. Fatigue, caused by cyclic thermal and mechanical loading, can lead to crack initiation in localized high-stress regions. Simultaneously, neutron irradiation, particularly in the beltline region, progressively reduces fracture toughness, increasing susceptibility to brittle fracture. These combined effects of fatigue and irradiation embrittlement potentially impact the RPV structural integrity, necessitating fitness-for-service assessments. This study applies the fracture toughness master curve approach to evaluate the impact of irradiation embrittlement on RPV fatigue life. A coupled thermo-mechanical stress analysis identifies critical stress locations under normal service transients, pinpointing regions most vulnerable to fatigue crack initiation and growth. Stress intensity factors for postulated flaws at these locations are calculated, enabling an assessment of fatigue life under irradiated and unirradiated conditions. The results indicate that neutron irradiation embrittlement accelerates the conditions in which a critical crack can form and lead to failure, particularly at lower temperatures. The failure occurs where reduced fracture toughness limits the material’s resistance to crack growth. Axial cracks at nozzle corners are the most life limiting without irradiation, while circumferential cracks demonstrate longer fatigue lives. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating irradiation effects into fatigue life predictions to ensure the long-term structural integrity of RPVs.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verifying Ray Tracing Amplitude Methods for Global Magnetospheric Modeling

Abstract Ray tracing is a commonly used method for modeling the propagation of electromagnetic waves in Earth's magnetosphere. To apply ray tracing results to global models of wave‐particle interaction such as energetic electron scattering, it is useful to map the discrete rays to a volume filling mesh. However, some methods have inherent losses of energy from the wave source, or do not account for the full range of wave properties within a sample volume. We have developed and tested a 3D magnetospheric ray tracing code “MESHRAY” which resolves these issues. MESHRAY uses the conservation of Poynting flux through ray triplets with finite volume to determine the local field amplitudes. Electromagnetic wave energy density from all ray data points is mapped to a mesh and verified against the wave source power for energy conservation varying time step length, number of rays, and total time steps. We find that the method is self‐consistent and numerically robust. We further investigate whether the neglect of phase information and superposition has a significant impact on the accuracy of mapping wave intensity to a mesh. We find excellent agreement between the analytic solution for waves emitted by a line source in a plane‐stratified medium and an equivalent ray tracing solution. When phase information is excluded, ray tracing reproduces an average amplitude spread over regions of coherent constructive and destructive interference. This may be an important consideration for interpolating ray tracing results of longer wavelength waves such as magnetosonic, electromagnetic ion cyclotron, or ULF waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Hanford's Direct Feed Low Activity Waste Program - 20002

The Office of River Protection (ORP) is responsible for the management and completion of the River Protection Project (RPP) mission, which comprises both the Hanford Site tank farms operations and the completion and operation of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant Project. The RPP mission is to safely retrieve, treat, and immobilize Hanford's high-level and low-activity tank waste and close the tank farms to protect the Columbia River. The Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) Program is a major subset of the overall RPP mission, providing disposition of low-activity waste. The scope is to retrieve, treat, and immobilize the low-activity waste at the Low-Activity Waste Facility. DFLAW will begin operations no later than December 2023. The DFLAW Program overarches a suite of individual projects, activities, and infrastructure upgrades. The major projects and activities include multiple contractors under both ORP and the Richland Operations Office, underscoring the need for effective integration, coordination, and collaboration. The objectives of the DFLAW Program leadership team are to: - Effectively coordinate and integrate the projects that comprise the DFLAW Program - Manage the interfaces between the projects so that the integrated DFLAW Program is completed successfully - Ensure the DFLAW portfolio of projects operate as required without gaps or conflicts at the interfaces. DOE is accomplishing these objectives through a newly established leadership model that integrates the DOE and contractor work streams and promotes a teamwork model to enable collaborative success. Long considered one of the most formidable cleanup challenges at Hanford, the Department of Energy and its contractors are on the verge of achieving a cleanup commitment that has been decades in the making. DOE is preparing to vitrify (turn to glass) Hanford's chemical and radioactive tank waste using the DFLAW process. The Modified Consent Decree milestone for completing hot commissioning of the Hanford Site's Low- Activity Waste Facility is Dec. 31, 2023. While this milestone may seem distant under normal project management circumstances, it is a relatively short period of time for the operational and cultural transformation necessary to successfully begin treating tank waste at Hanford. Direct feed means separating the waste at a tank farm to remove the more radioactive portion (i.e., solids and cesium) so that the resulting low-activity (less radioactive) waste can be fed directly to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant's Low-Activity Waste Facility. Starting DFLAW will require a singular, intensive leadership focus, along with a sustained, collective commitment to excellence and teamwork by the Department and its contractors. Major upgrades to Hanford's infrastructure will occur prior to startup. Supporting DFLAW operations requires significant integration between the DFLAW facilities - the Waste Treatment Plant, Hanford's tank farms, effluent treatment facilities, disposal facilities - and between all of the site contractors to achieve success. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhance coherence time in intensely driven quantum systems

Not long ago, it was shown that a discrete time crystal can be realized if a quantum system is periodically driven to a non-equilibrium state. Proof-of-concept experiments are reported by two groups using trapped ions and nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond, respectively. The concept of discrete time crystals vividly demonstrates that the coherence time of a quantum system may be enhanced by driving the system out of equilibrium. In this project, we want to test this novel concept in another canonical quantum system, the quantum Hall system in a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG). Compared to other systems, quantum Hall magnetism (QHM) in high quality, industry-compatible GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures allows for detailed and quantitative studies in a particularly simple and clean environment. This detailed knowledge should help achieve longer coherence times in a driven QHM system. This report will detail the results from a recent study on the stability of the quantum Hall skyrmions (QHS) state at a Landau level filling close to ν = 1 by measuring its current-voltage (I-V) breakdown characteristics under radio-frequency (RF) radiations. We observe that the critical current increases visibly when the RF frequency is right at the Larmor frequency of 75As nuclei, where the hyperfine interaction between electron and nuclear spins perturbs the QHS state most significantly. We believe that this observation is consistent with the novel concept that the coherence time of a quantum system may be enhanced by driving the system out of equilibrium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗