STAGED DDCM: A Framework for Addressing Discrepancies in Model Predictions through Data Assimilation and Machine Learning
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Most atmospheric models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, use a spherical geographic coordinate system to internally represent input data and perform computations. However, most geographic information system (GIS) input data used by the models are based on a spheroid datum because it better represents the actual geometry of the earth. WRF and other atmospheric models use these GIS input layers as if they were in a spherical coordinate system without accounting for the difference in datum. When GIS layers are not properly reprojected, latitudinal errors of up to 21 km in the midlatitudes are introduced. Recent studies have suggested that for very high-resolution applications, the difference in datum in the GIS input data (e.g., terrain land use, orography) should be taken into account. However, the magnitude of errors introduced by the difference in coordinate systems remains unclear. This research quantifies the effect of using a spherical vs. a spheroid datum for the input GIS layers used by WRF to study greenhouse gas transport and dispersion in northeast Pennsylvania.
We use Doppler lidar wind profiles from six locations around the globe to evaluate the wind profile forecasts in the boundary layer generated by the operational global Integrated Forecast System (IFS) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The six locations selected cover a variety of surfaces with different characteristics (rural, marine, mountainous urban, and coastal urban). We first validated the Doppler lidar observations at four locations by comparison with co-located radiosonde profiles to ensure that the Doppler lidar observations were of sufficient quality. The two observation types agree well, with the mean absolute error (MAE) in wind speed almost always less than 1 m s –1 . Large deviations in the wind direction were usually only seen for low wind speeds and are due to the wind direction uncertainty increasing rapidly as the wind speed tends to zero. Time–height composites of the wind evaluation with 1 h resolution were generated, and evaluation of the model winds showed that the IFS model performs best over marine and coastal locations, where the mean absolute wind vector error was usually less than 3 m s –1 at all heights within the boundary layer. Larger errors were seen in locations where the surface was more complex, especially in the wind direction. For example, in Granada, which is near a high mountain range, the IFS model failed to capture a commonly occurring mountain breeze, which is highly dependent on the sub-grid-size terrain features that are not resolved by the model. The uncertainty in the wind forecasts increased with forecast lead time, but no increase in the bias was seen. At one location, we conditionally performed the wind evaluation based on the presence or absence of a low-level jet diagnosed from the Doppler lidar observations. The model was able to reproduce the presence of the low-level jet, but the wind speed maximum was about 2 m s –1 lower than observed. This is attributed to the effective vertical resolution of the model being too coarse to create the strong gradients in wind speed observed. Our results show that Doppler lidar is a suitable instrument for evaluating the boundary layer wind profiles in atmospheric models.
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The coding of data on 2,565 individual human altitude chamber tests is reported as part of a selection procedure designed to eliminate individuals who are highly susceptible to decompression sickness, individual aircrew members were exposed to the pressure equivalent of 37,000 feet and observed for one hour. Many entries refer to subjects who have been tested two or three times. This data contains a substantial body of statistical information important to the understanding of the mechanisms of altitude decompression sickness and for the computation of improved high altitude operating procedures. Appropriate computer formats and encoding procedures were developed and all 2,565 entries have been converted to these formats and stored on magnetic tape. A gas loading file was produced.
A semi-empirical maximum overall sound pressure level (OASPL) airframe noise model was derived. The noise radiated from aircraft wings and flaps was modeled by using the trailing-edge diffracted quadrupole sound theory derived by Ffowcs Williams and Hall. The noise radiated from the landing gear was modeled by using the acoustic dipole sound theory derived by Curle. The model was successfully correlated with maximum OASPL flyover noise measurements obtained at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center for three jet aircraft - the Lockheed JetStar, the Convair 990, and the Boeing 747 aircraft.
A semiempirical maximum overall sound pressure level (OASPL) airframe noise model was derived. Noise radiated from aircraft wings was modeled on the trailing edge diffractes quadrupole sound theory. The acoustic dipole sound theory was used to model noise from the landing gear. The model was correlated with maximum OASPL flyover noise measurements obtained for three jet aircraft. One third octave band sound pressure level flyover data was correlated and interpreted.
A simple model has been devised to selectively construct several points within a scene using multispectral imagery. The model correlates black-and-white density values to color components of diazo film so as to maximize the color contrast of two or three points per composite. The CIE (Commission Internationale de l'Eclairage) color coordinate system is used as a quantitative reference to locate these points in color space. Superimposed on this quantitative reference is a perceptional framework which functionally contrasts color values in a psychophysical sense. This methodology permits a more quantitative approach to the manual interpretation of multispectral imagery while resulting in improved accuracy and lower costs.
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A computational model has been developed for the determination of the gasdynamic and magnetic field properties of the solar wind flow around a magnetic planet, such as the earth, or a nonmagnetic planet, such as Venus. The procedures are based on an established single-fluid, steady, dissipationless, magnetogasdynamic model and are appropriate for the calculation of axisymmetric, supersonic, super-Alfvenic solar wind flow past a planetary magneto/ionosphere. Sample results are reported for a variety of solar wind and planetary conditions. Some of these are new applications; others are included to show that the new procedures produce the same results as previous procedures when applied to the same conditions. The new methods are completely automated and much more efficient and versatile than those employed heretofore.
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Future aerospace-vehicle systems, such as supersonic transport fleets, the Space Shuttle (SS), and the Heavy-Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) system will inject substantial amounts of pollutants into the stratosphere. It is, therefore, pertinent to ask whether the operation of these systems will lead to deleterious effects in the atmosphere. The current investigation is concerned with the development of criteria to assess the likelihood of a detectable corridor effect being caused by the long-term deposition of pollutants at a single latitude. The sources are assumed to operate continuously and at a uniform rate for periods of many years. It is found that transport by meridional winds and by eddy processes acts to diminish the corridor effect by advecting the pollutants out of the region of injection and by mixing them with the ambient air. Attention is given to the altitude for which a detectable corridor effect can be expected for the hypothetical launching of 400 HLLV's per year for 10 years.
Fatigue crack growth tests were performed on center crack panels and radial crack hole samples. The data were reduced and correlated with the elastic parameter-K taking into account finite width and corner crack corrections. The anomalous behavior normally associated with short cracks was not observed. Total life estimates for notches were made by coupling an initiation life estimate with a propagation life estimate.
A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.