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DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid analytical and numerical model for cross-over and performance decay in a unit cell vanadium redox flow battery

Developing an accurate and efficient model for cross-over is critical for improving the long-term performance of redox flow batteries (RFBs). Here, this work presents a hybrid analytical and numerical model that combines a two-dimensional analytical solution to the active species, a one-dimensional analytical model for cross-over mechanisms, and a zero-dimensional numerical model for outlet concentrations of reactants. By comparing with experiment over 41 cycles (ca. 144 h), the model reported a mean voltage difference of 0.0089 V, mean time difference of 14 s per cycle (of 3.5 h), maximum relative difference for capacity and energy of 1.34% and 1.63%, respectively. The predicted mean concentrations for V 2+ , V 3+ , and VO$_{2}^{+}$ in membrane are 65%~77% of measured values from the literature. Upon validation, the model reproduced behaviors in electrolyte imbalance similar to those observed in experiments and numerical models, and revealed the control of cross-over, self-discharge, stoichiometry of side reactions, and Coulombic efficiency on electrolyte imbalance. The model also demonstrates excellent computational efficiency for simulating 41 cycles (around 37,000 points) within 3~4 s. The demonstrated efficiency and accuracy for predicting cross-over and its impacts on voltage, capacity&energy decay, membrane concentrations, and electrolyte imbalance makes it a reliable tool for optimizing RFBs’ long-term performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of coarse mesh turbulence for reactor transient analysis using convolutional recurrent neural networks

Advanced nuclear reactors often exhibit complex thermal-fluid phenomena during transients. To accurately capture such phenomena, a coarse-mesh three-dimensional (3-D) modeling capability is desired for modern nuclear-system code. In the coarse-mesh 3-D modeling of advanced-reactor transients that involve flow and heat transfer, accurately predicting the turbulent viscosity is a challenging task that requires an accurate and computationally efficient model to capture the unresolved fine-scale turbulence. In this work, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The model has a coarse mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data to ensure accuracy. A novel neural network architecture, combining a densely connected convolutional network and a long-short-term-memory network, is developed that can efficiently learn from the spatial temporal CFD transient simulation results. The neural network model was trained and optimized on a loss-of flow transient and demonstrated high accuracy in predicting the turbulent viscosity field during the whole transient. The trained model's generalization capability was also investigated on two other transients with different inlet conditions. The study demonstrates the potential of applying the proposed data-driven approach to support the coarse-mesh multi-dimensional modeling of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity modeling to predict the rheological properties of fiber suspensions

Unveiling the rheological properties of fiber suspensions is of paramount interest to many industrial applications like biofuel production. The 3D numerical simulations of the suspension of fibers are often computationally expensive and time-consuming. Machine learning methods such as neural networks can simplify the prediction of rheological behavior; however, they require a relatively large training data set. Multi -fidelity models, which combine high-fidelity data from numerical simulations and less expensive lower fidelity data from resources such as simplified physical equations, can lead to optimized predictions. Here, we focus on a neural network with two levels of fidelity, i.e., high and low fidelity networks. To produce high-fidelity data, we perform direct numerical simulations to model the fibers as one-dimensional inextensible slender bodies that obey the Euler- Bernoulli beam equation. The Navier-Stokes equations govern the suspended fluid, and an immersed boundary method is used to couple the fluid and solid motion. The low-fidelity data is produced by using constitutive equations. Noticeable improvements have been observed in the accuracy of predicting the rheological behavior when a multi-fidelity network is used compared to the single-fidelity network.

Boodaghidizaji, Miad↗

NASA NTRS1971

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Spacecraft-spacecraft very long baseline interferometry. Part 1: Error modeling and observable accuracy

In Part 1 of this two-part article, an error budget is presented for Earth-based delta differential one-way range (delta DOR) measurements between two spacecraft. Such observations, made between a planetary orbiter (or lander) and another spacecraft approaching that planet, would provide a powerful target-relative angular tracking data type for approach navigation. Accuracies of better than 5 nrad should be possible for a pair of spacecraft with 8.4-GHz downlinks, incorporating 40-MHz DOR tone spacings, while accuracies approaching 1 nrad will be possible if the spacecraft incorporate 32-GHz downlinks with DOR tone spacing on the order of 250 MHz; these accuracies will be available for the last few weeks or months of planetary approach for typical Earth-Mars trajectories. Operational advantages of this data type are discussed, and ground system requirements needed to enable spacecraft-spacecraft delta DOR observations are outlined. This tracking technique could be demonstrated during the final approach phase of the Mars '94 mission, using Mars Observer as the in-orbit reference spacecraft, if the Russian spacecraft includes an 8.4-GHz downlink incorporating DOR tones. Part 2 of this article will present an analysis of predicted targeting accuracy for this scenario.

Edwards, C. D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Parameter Uncertainty for Aircraft Aerodynamic Modeling using Recursive Least Squares

A real-time method was demonstrated for determining accurate uncertainty levels of stability and control derivatives estimated using recursive least squares and time-domain data. The method uses a recursive formulation of the residual autocorrelation to account for colored residuals, which are routinely encountered in aircraft parameter estimation and change the predicted uncertainties. Simulation data and flight test data for a subscale jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the approach. Results showed that the corrected uncertainties matched the observed scatter in the parameter estimates, and did so more accurately than conventional uncertainty estimates that assume white residuals. Only small differences were observed between batch estimates and recursive estimates at the end of the maneuver. It was also demonstrated that the autocorrelation could be reduced to a small number of lags to minimize computation and memory storage requirements without significantly degrading the accuracy of predicted uncertainty levels.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subnetwork representation learning for discovering network biomarkers in predicting lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer

Cervical lymph node metastasis is the leading cause of poor prognosis in oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma and also occurs in the early stages. The current clinical diagnosis depends on a physical examination that is not enough to determine whether micrometastasis remains. The transcriptome profiling technique has shown great potential for predicting micrometastasis by capturing the dynamic activation state of genes. However, there are several technical challenges in using transcriptome data to model patient conditions: (1) An Insufficient number of samples compared to the number of genes, (2) Complex dependence between genes that govern the cancer phenotype, and (3) Heterogeneity between patients between cohorts that differ geographically and racially. We developed a computational framework to learn the subnetwork representation of the transcriptome to discover network biomarkers and determine the potential of metastasis in early oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. Our method achieved high accuracy in predicting the potential of metastasis in two geographically and racially different groups of patients. The robustness of the model and the reproducibility of the discovered network biomarkers show great potential as a tool to diagnose lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Addressing APC Data Sparsity in Predicting Occupancy and Delay of Transit Buses: A Multitask Learning Approach

Public transit is a vital mode of transportation in urban areas, and its efficiency is crucial for the daily commute of millions of people. To improve the reliability and predictability of transit systems, researchers have developed separate single-task learning models to predict the occupancy and delay of buses at the stop or route level. However, these models provide a narrow view of delay and occupancy at each stop and do not account for the correlation between the two. We propose a novel approach that leverages broader generalizable patterns governing delay and occupancy for improved prediction. We introduce a multitask learning toolchain that takes into account General Transit Feed Specification feeds, Automatic Passenger Counter data, and contextual temporal and spatial information. The toolchain predicts transit delay and occupancy at the stop level, improving the accuracy of the predictions of these two features of a trip given sparse and noisy data. We also show that our toolchain can adapt to fewer samples of new transit data once it has been trained on previous routes/trips as compared to state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we use actual data from Chattanooga, Tennessee, to validate our approach. We compare our approach against the state-of-the-art methods and we show that treating occupancy and delay as related problems improves the accuracy of the predictions. We show that our approach improves delay prediction significantly by as much as 4% in F1 scores while producing equivalent or better results for occupancy.

Zulqarnain, Ammar Bin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Inferencing Model Creation and Deployment to the RASSOR Lunar Excavation Robot

The Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. The Intelligent Capabilities Enhanced RASSOR research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation. For example, during autonomous operation, RASSOR should navigate and move to a processing plant to offload the collected regolith when the drums are full; without knowledge of how much mass is in the drums, this type of high-level planning is not possible. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All take in system states, such as arm/drum positions, velocities, currents, voltages, and robot pose, and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums.1) A neural network model that takes a vector of normalized system states; 2) A model that uses the integrated power consumption of an arm-raise (normalized by velocity); 3) A model that uses average drum current over a variable length interval of the drum disengaged from the surface; and 4) A real-time estimation model that aggregates excavation drum current. The developed models run in real time, outputting predictions for the front and rear drums, timestamp of the last prediction, and total mass in RASSOR’s drums. Further testing is required to validate the arm-raise model (2), though initial tests indicate reasonable performance (<10% mean error) on the hardware. The linear fit of average drum-current model (3) had a front value of r^2=0.99 and a rear value of r^2=0.98 on the validation dataset. This model currently has the best performance on unseen data. The real time model (4) is still in development, though initial results on a small subset of the training data show that it has high accuracy in predicting the increase in mass during excavation. Though work remains to be done with deploying a high-fidelity model to the physical system that makes predictions with error below the desired threshold, the modular architecture for model development allows quick adjustment of parameters to increase model fidelity. This architecture can also be adapted to use lunar excavation data to create models that are reflective of RASSOR’s dynamics when operating on the lunar surface. The results are promising as it has been shown that models can be developed that accurately estimate excavated regolith mass.

rassor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

The accuracy of heating predictions using various turbulence models is examined for an axisymmetric near-wake at Mach 6. The CFD predictions are compared with experimental data collected under AGARD Working Group 18 on the wake of a 70-degree sphere-cone. The impact of grid resolution and discretization error is estimated, which allows a comparison of stacked-block and conventional structured meshes. The accuracy of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models is contrasted with that of a hybrid RANS/Large-Eddy Simulation model. The predictions are made with three different CFD codes (LAURA, FUN3D, and HyperSolve), to demonstrate the code-to-code variation in the results. Steady SST models capture the qualitative nature of the heating in the wake, including the increasing peak heating with increasing Reynolds number. Spalart-Allmaras models, including SA-Catris, under-predicted the peak heating in the wake. Hybrid RANS/LES models improve upon the SA results but have their own modeling difficulties near the shear layer impingement. These results are generally consistent across solvers and grid topologies.

RANS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

RANS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Approach to the Eagar–Tsai Model for Melt Pool Geometry Prediction with Implications in Additive Manufacturing of Metals

Here, this paper focuses on improving the melt pool geometry predictions and quantifying uncertainties using an adapted version of the Eagar–Tsai (E–T) model that incorporates temperature-dependent properties of the material as well as powder conditions. Additionally, Bayesian inference is employed to predict distributions for the E–T model input parameters of laser absorptivity and powder bed porosity by incorporating experimental results into the analysis. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is then used with these parameter distributions to estimate the melt pool depth and associated uncertainty. Our results for the 316L stainless steel suggest that both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity are strongly influenced by the laser power. In contrast, the scanning speed has only a marginal effect on both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity. We constructed a printability map using the Bayesian E–T model based on power-dependent input parameter values to demonstrate the merit of the approach. The Bayesian approach improved the accuracy in predicting the keyhole regions in the laser power-scan speed parameter space for the 316L stainless steel. Although applied to a specific adaptation of the E–T model, the method put forth can be extended to quantify uncertainties in other numerical models as well as in the estimation of unknown parameters.

316L Stainless Steel (SS).↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the choice of which technologies to pursue to the prototype level is also discussed since, to achieve better LCC, first the selection of the appropriate technologies.

Robinson, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Influence of Computational Drop Representation in LES of a Droplet-Laden Mixing Layer

Multiphase turbulent flows are encountered in many practical applications including turbine engines or natural phenomena involving particle dispersion. Numerical computations of multiphase turbulent flows are important because they provide a cheaper alternative to performing experiments during an engine design process or because they can provide predictions of pollutant dispersion, etc. Two-phase flows contain millions and sometimes billions of particles. For flows with volumetrically dilute particle loading, the most accurate method of numerically simulating the flow is based on direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the governing equations in which all scales of the flow including the small scales that are responsible for the overwhelming amount of dissipation are resolved. DNS, however, requires high computational cost and cannot be used in engineering design applications where iterations among several design conditions are necessary. Because of high computational cost, numerical simulations of such flows cannot track all these drops. The objective of this work is to quantify the influence of the number of computational drops and grid spacing on the accuracy of predicted flow statistics, and to possibly identify the minimum number, or, if not possible, the optimal number of computational drops that provide minimal error in flow prediction. For this purpose, several Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of a mixing layer with evaporating drops have been performed by using coarse, medium, and fine grid spacings and computational drops, rather than physical drops. To define computational drops, an integer NR is introduced that represents the ratio of the number of existing physical drops to the desired number of computational drops; for example, if NR=8, this means that a computational drop represents 8 physical drops in the flow field. The desired number of computational drops is determined by the available computational resources; the larger NR is, the less computationally intensive is the simulation. A set of first order and second order flow statistics, and of drop statistics are extracted from LES predictions and are compared to results obtained by filtering a DNS database. First order statistics such as Favre averaged stream-wise velocity, Favre averaged vapor mass fraction, and the drop stream-wise velocity, are predicted accurately independent of the number of computational drops and grid spacing. Second order flow statistics depend both on the number of computational drops and on grid spacing. The scalar variance and turbulent vapor flux are predicted accurately by the fine mesh LES only when NR is less than 32, and by the coarse mesh LES reasonably accurately for all NR values. This is attributed to the fact that when the grid spacing is coarsened, the number of drops in a computational cell must not be significantly lower than that in the DNS.

Bellan, Josette↗

NASA NTRS1977

Fluidized bed combustor modeling

A general mathematical model for the prediction of performance of a fluidized bed coal combustor (FBC) is developed. The basic elements of the model consist of: (1) hydrodynamics of gas and solids in the combustor; (2) description of gas and solids contacting pattern; (3) kinetics of combustion; and (4) absorption of SO2 by limestone in the bed. The model is capable of calculating the combustion efficiency, axial bed temperature profile, carbon hold-up in the bed, oxygen and SO2 concentrations in the bubble and emulsion phases, sulfur retention efficiency and particulate carry over by elutriation. The effects of bed geometry, excess air, location of heat transfer coils in the bed, calcium to sulfur ratio in the feeds, etc. are examined. The calculated results are compared with experimental data. Agreement between the calculated results and the observed data are satisfactory in most cases. Recommendations to enhance the accuracy of prediction of the model are suggested.

Horio, M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Relation between West Coastal rainfall and Nimbus 6 SCAMS liquid water data over the northeastern Pacific Ocean

A research study is described in which the application to rainfall prediction of cloud liquid water data obtained from the SCAMS experiment of Nimbus 6 is explored. The study area is the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, where rainfall is produced by extratropical storms that approach from across the Pacific Ocean. SCAMS data related to cloud liquid water over the ocean, and coastal rainfall data, are analyzed for 20 different storm systems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean; these produced significant rainfall from Washington to central California during the period October 1975-March 1976. Results show that the distribution of storm-cloud water analyzed from the SCAMS data over the ocean foreshadows the distribution of coastal rainfall accumulated from the storm at a later time. It is concluded that passive microwave sensor measurements of cloud water over the ocean, when used in conjunction with numerical and other objective guidance, can be used to enhance the accuracy of predictions of coastal rainfall distribution. Limitations in the SCAMS measurements and in the data analysis and interpretation are noted.

Viezee, W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Relation between west coastal rainfall and Nimbus-6 SCAMS liquid water data over the northeastern Pacific Ocean

The application to rainfall prediction of cloud liquid water data obtained from the SCAMS experiment of Nimbus-6 is explored. The study area is the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, where rainfall is produced by extratropical storms that approach from across the Pacific Ocean. The SCAMS data related to cloud liquid water over the ocean, and coastal rainfall data, are analyzed for 20 different storm systems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean; these produced significant rainfall from Washington to central California during the period October 1975 through March 1976. Results show that the distribution of storm cloud water analyzed from the SCAMS data over the ocean foreshadows the distribution of coastal rainfall accumulated from the storm at a later time. It is concluded that passive microwave sensor measurements of cloud water over the ocean, when used in conjunction with numerical and other objective guidance, can be used to enhance the accuracy of predictions of coastal rainfall distribution. Limitations in the SCAMS measurements and in the data analysis and interpretation are noted.

Viezee, W.↗