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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Host-region parameters for an adjustable model for crustal earthquakes to facilitate the implementation of the backbone approach to building ground-motion logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

The backbone approach to constructing a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can address shortcomings in the traditional approach of populating the branches with multiple existing, or potentially modified, ground-motion models (GMMs) by rendering more transparent the relationship between branch weights and the resulting distribution of predicted accelerations. To capture epistemic uncertainty in a tractable manner, there are benefits in building the logic tree through the application of successive adjustments for differences in source, path, and site characteristics between the host region of the selected backbone GMM and the target region for which the PSHA is being conducted. The implementation of this approach is facilitated by selecting a backbone GMM that is amenable to such host-to-target adjustments for individual source, path, and site characteristics. The NGA-West2 GMM of Chiou and Youngs (CY14) has been identified as a highly adaptable model for crustal seismicity that is well suited to such adjustments. Rather than using generic source, path, and site characteristics assumed appropriate for the host region, the final suite of adjusted GMMs for the target region will be better constrained if the host-region parameters are defined specifically on the basis of their compatibility with the CY14 backbone GMM. To this end, making use of a recently developed crustal shear-wave velocity profile consistent with CY14, we present an inversion of the model to estimate the key source and path parameters, namely the stress parameter and the anelastic attenuation. With these outputs, the effort in constructing a ground-motion logic tree for any PSHA dealing with crustal seismicity can be focused primarily on the estimation of the target-region characteristics and their associated uncertainties. The inversion procedure can also be adapted for any application in which different constraints might be relevant.

Stafford, Peter J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Mechanistic Fission Gas Release and Swelling Models for UN Fuels in BISON

This report describes the work in NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) to develop a mechanistic fission gas model for uranium nitride fuels in BISON. The existing Sifgrs (Simple integrated fission gas release and swelling) model tracks the average properties of two bubble populations in the bulk and at the grain boundaries. It was recognized that dislocations play a crucial role in the fission gas swelling of UN, and an irradiation-induced dislocation density model was needed, as well as a model describing how fission gas interacts with dislocations creating a third population of bubbles along dislocations. A mechanistic model that tracks dislocation bubbles was implemented in Sifgrs. This model was used to simulate fission gas swelling and release in UN. Lower-length-scale calculations and experimental observations from carbide fuel were leveraged to help populate the model with essential parameters. As a placeholder, an empirical function was formulated for the evolution of the dislocation network. Because of the difference in evolution of this network at different temperatures, the dislocation bubbles are able to capture behavior that the bulk intragranular bubbles cannot. It was found that the bulk bubbles dominate microscopic swelling at low temperatures, and the dislocation bubbles dominate at higher temperatures. Based on this model, the transition between the two bubble types is the main factor behind the breakaway swelling phenomenon in UN. In order to test the model, a couple of assessments were run. For the lower temperature JOYO pins, the model produces reasonable fission gas release and swelling values. For the higher temperature SP1 pin, the model dramatically underestimates the fission gas release. This issue is attributed to the gas being trapped inside dislocation bubbles, unable to escape to grain boundaries to cause fission gas release, and could be remedied by a mechanistic dislocation model that allows the dislocation density to decrease at very high temperatures. A preliminary mechanistic dislocation model was developed supported by first-principle calculations. These calculations provided valuable insight into how interstitial defects cluster in UN in the {110} orientation, and may eventually form dislocation loops, leading to the conclusion that dislocation loops may nucleate from these clusters. An estimate of the dislocation line energy in UN was obtained and will be improved in future work. The free-energy cluster dynamics code Centipede was used to track interstitial and vacancy absorption at dislocation loops and calculate their growth. In addition, improvements to Centipede were made including new convergence criteria for transient simulations and sink driving force updates.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Featureless Infrared Transmission Spectrum for the Super-puff Planet Kepler-79d

Extremely low-density planets (“super-puffs”) are a small but intriguing subset of the transiting planet population. With masses in the super-Earth range (1 − 10 M{sub ⊕}) and radii akin to those of giant planets (> 4 R{sub ⊕}), their large envelopes may have been accreted beyond the water snow line and many appear to be susceptible to catastrophic mass loss. Both the presence of water and the importance of mass loss can be explored using transmission spectroscopy. Here, we present new Hubble space telescope WFC3 spectroscopy and updated Kepler transit depth measurements for the super-puff Kepler-79d. We do not detect any molecular absorption features in the 1.1 − 1.7 μm WFC3 bandpass, and the combined Kepler and WFC3 data are consistent with a flat-line model, indicating the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. We compare the shape of Kepler-79d’s transmission spectrum to predictions from a microphysical haze model that incorporates an outward particle flux due to ongoing mass loss. We find that photochemical hazes offer an attractive explanation for the observed properties of super-puffs like Kepler-79d, as they simultaneously render the near-infrared spectrum featureless and reduce the inferred envelope mass-loss rate by moving the measured radius (optical depth unity surface during transit) to lower pressures. We revisit the broader question of mass-loss rates for super-puffs and find that the age estimates and mass-loss rates for the majority of super-puffs can be reconciled if hazes move the photosphere from the typically assumed pressure of ∼10 mbar to ∼10 μbar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved evaluation of safeguards parameters from spent fuel measurements with the Differential Die-Away (DDA) instrument

The Differential Die-Away (DDA) technique is a highly sensitive non-destructive assay method for characterizing and detecting the presence of fissile material within an item of interest. DDA utilizes a series of pulses from a neutron generator (NG) to actively interrogate an item of interest. The die-away time of the neutron population induced by this active interrogation and the integral of the total differential die-away signal can be used to characterize items such as nuclear waste drums and spent nuclear fuel assemblies. In this work, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) conceptualized, designed, and fabricated a DDA instrument that was deployed for field test measurements at the Central Interim Storage Facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel (Clab) in Oskarshamn, Sweden. The instrument performed multiple static measurements at fixed locations and dynamic axial scans of 15 pressurized water reactor (PWR) and 10 boiling water reactor (BWR) spent fuel assemblies, collecting both passive and active measurement data. The static assays of the assemblies measured the differential die-away signal, die-away time, and total passive neutron emission rate to create calibration curves for the evaluation of assembly multiplication, burnup, initial enrichment, effective fissile mass, and total elemental plutonium mass. Each calibration curve was optimized by minimizing the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of assembly assay results compared to declared assembly parameters. The same quantities were also measured with the axial scans, and the resulting data were applied in two ways: (1) in the creation of calibration curves to improve evaluation of the same safeguards parameters as static assays, and (2) for comparison to simulation. In most cases, across both PWR and BWR assemblies, axial scan data improved the estimation of the above parameters, quantified by decreasing the calibration curve RRMSE. These axial scan results demonstrate the ability of the DDA instrument and analysis method to characterize spent PWR and BWR fuel as well as, or better than, a static assay of the same assembly. Furthermore, the DDA instrument’s unique ability to obtain both active and passive data in a single, axial scan of an entire spent fuel assembly represents a more efficient and accurate way of assaying spent fuel for verification purposes. These results represent a significant advancement for characterizing spent nuclear fuel compared to current technologies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining radio mode feedback in galaxy clusters with the cluster radio AGNs properties to z ∼ 1

ABSTRACT We study the properties of the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) 843 MHz radio active galactic nuclei (AGNs) population in galaxy clusters from two large catalogues created using the Dark Energy Survey (DES): ∼11 800 optically selected RM-Y3 and ∼1000 X-ray selected MARD-Y3 clusters. We show that cluster radio loud AGNs are highly concentrated around cluster centres to $z$ ∼ 1. We measure the halo occupation number for cluster radio AGNs above a threshold luminosity, finding that the number of radio AGNs per cluster increases with cluster halo mass as N ∝ M1.2 ± 0.1 (N ∝ M0.68 ± 0.34) for the RM-Y3 (MARD-Y3) sample. Together, these results indicate that radio mode feedback is favoured in more massive galaxy clusters. Using optical counterparts for these sources, we demonstrate weak redshift evolution in the host broad-band colours and the radio luminosity at fixed host galaxy stellar mass. We use the redshift evolution in radio luminosity to break the degeneracy between density and luminosity evolution scenarios in the redshift trend of the radio AGNs luminosity function (LF). The LF exhibits a redshift trend of the form (1 + $z$)γ in density and luminosity, respectively, of γD = 3.0 ± 0.4 and γP = 0.21 ± 0.15 in the RM-Y3 sample, and γD = 2.6 ± 0.7 and γP = 0.31 ± 0.15 in MARD-Y3. We discuss the physical drivers of radio mode feedback in cluster AGNs, and we use the cluster radio galaxy LF to estimate the average radio-mode feedback energy as a function of cluster mass and redshift and compare it to the core (<0.1R500) X-ray radiative losses for clusters at $z$ < 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon-enhanced metal-poor star candidates from BP/RP spectra in Gaia DR3

ABSTRACT Carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars comprise almost a third of stars with [Fe/H] < −2, although their origins are still poorly understood. It is highly likely that one sub-class (CEMP-s stars) is tied to mass-transfer events in binary stars, while another sub-class (CEMP-no stars) are enriched by the nucleosynthetic yields of the first generations of stars. Previous studies of CEMP stars have primarily concentrated on the Galactic halo, but more recently they have also been detected in the thick disc and bulge components of the Milky Way. Gaia DR3 has provided an unprecedented sample of over 200 million low-resolution (R ≈ 50) spectra from the BP and RP photometers. Training on the CEMP catalogue from the SDSS/SEGUE database, we use XGBoost to identify the largest all-sky sample of CEMP candidate stars to date. In total, we find 58 872 CEMP star candidates, with an estimated contamination rate of 12 per cent. When comparing to literature high-resolution catalogues, we positively identify 60–68 per cent of the CEMP stars in the data, validating our results and indicating a high completeness rate. Our final catalogue of CEMP candidates spans from the inner to outer Milky Way, with distances as close as r ∼ 0.8 kpc from the Galactic centre, and as far as r > 30 kpc. Future higher resolution spectroscopic follow-up of these candidates will provide validations of their classification and enable investigations of the frequency of CEMP-s and CEMP-no stars throughout the Galaxy, to further constrain the nature of their progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of compact sources in galaxy clusters using MUSTANG2

Compact sources can cause scatter in the scaling relationships between the amplitude of the thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Effect (tSZE) in galaxy clusters and cluster mass. Estimates of the importance of this scatter vary – largely due to limited data on sources in clusters at the frequencies at which tSZE cluster surveys operate. In this paper, we present 90 GHz compact source measurements from a sample of 30 clusters observed using the MUSTANG2 instrument on the Green Bank Telescope. We present simulations of how a source’s flux density, spectral index, and angular separation from the cluster’s centre affect the measured tSZE in clusters detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). By comparing the MUSTANG2 measurements with these simulations we calibrate an empirical relationship between 1.4 GHz flux densities from radio surveys and source contamination in ACT tSZE measurements. We find 3 per cent of the ACT clusters have more than a 20 per cent decrease in Compton-y but another 3 per cent have a 10 per cent increase in the Compton-y due to the matched filters used to find clusters. As sources affect the measured tSZE signal and hence the likelihood that a cluster will be detected, testing the level of source contamination in the tSZE signal using a tSZE-selected catalogue is inherently biased. We confirm this by comparing the ACT tSZE catalogue with optically and X-ray-selected cluster catalogues. Furthermore, there is a strong case for a large, high-resolution survey of clusters to better characterize their source population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star formation rate and stellar mass calibrations based on infrared photometry and their dependence on stellar population age and extinction

The stellar mass (M $\star$ ) and the star formation rate (SFR) are among the most important features that characterize galaxies. Measuring these fundamental properties accurately is critical for understanding the present state of galaxies, their history, and future evolution. Infrared (IR) photometry is widely used to measure the M $\star$ and SFR of galaxies because the near-IR traces the continuum emission of the majority of their stellar populations (SPs), and the mid/far-IR traces the dust emission powered by star-forming activity. This work explores the dependence of the IR emission of galaxies on their extinction, and the age of their SPs. It aims to provide accurate and precise IR-photometry SFR and M $\star$ calibrations that account for SP age and extinction while providing quantification of their scatter. We used the CIGALE spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code to create model SEDs of galaxies with a wide range of star formation histories, dust content, and interstellar medium properties. We fit the relations between M $\star$ and SFR with IR and optical photometry of the model-galaxy SEDs with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As an independent confirmation of the MCMC fitting method, we performed a machine-learning random forest (RF) analysis on the same data set. The RF model yields similar results to the MCMC fits, thus validating the latter. This work provides calibrations for the SFR using a combination of the WISE bands 1 and 3, or the JWST NIR-F200W and MIRI-F2100W. It also provides mass-to-light ratio calibrations based on the WISE band-1, the JWST NIR-F200W, and the optical u - r or g - r colors. These calibrations account for the biases attributed to the SP age, while they are given in the form of extinction-dependent and extinction-independent relations. The proposed calibrations show robust estimations while minimizing the scatter and biases throughout a wide range of SFRs and stellar masses. The SFR calibration offers better results, especially in dust-free or passive galaxies where the contributions of old SPs or biases from the lack of dust are significant. Similarly, the M $\star$ calibration yields significantly better results for dusty and high-SFR galaxies where dust emission can otherwise bias the estimations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lifetime risk of suicide among survivors of the atomic bombings of Japan

Abstract Aims The long-term physical health effects of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are well characterised, but the psychological effects remain unclear. Therefore, we sought to determine whether measures of exposure severity, as indirect measures of psychological trauma arising from exposure to the atomic bombings, are associated with suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. Methods The Life Span Study is a prospective cohort study of 93 741 Japanese atomic bomb survivors who were located within 10 km of the hypocentre in Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of the bombings in 1945, and 26 579 residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were not in either city at the time of the bombings, matched to survivors on city, sex and age. Measures of exposure severity included: proximity to the hypocentre, type of shielding between the survivor and the blast and self-reported occurrence of acute radiation and thermal injuries. Date of death was obtained from the Japanese National Family Registry system. Cause of death was obtained from death certificates. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox regression models overall and stratified by sex and age. Results During the 60-year follow-up period (1950–2009), 1150 suicide deaths were recorded among 120 231 participants (23.6 per 100 000 person-years): 510 among 70 092 women (17.2 per 100 000 person-years) and 640 among 50 139 men (33.6 per 100 000 person-years). Overall, there was no association of proximity, type of shielding or the occurrence of acute injuries with suicide mortality. Among those <25 years of age at the time of the bombings, increased suicide risk was observed for survivors outside v . shielded inside any structure (HR: 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.48; interaction p = 0.054) and for those who reported flash burns (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.73; interaction p = 0.025). Sex-stratified analyses indicated that these associations were limited to men. Among women, closer proximity to the hypocentre was associated with a non-significant increase in suicide risk, with a positive association between proximity and suicide risk observed among women <15 years of age (HR: 1.09 per km; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18; interaction p = 0.067). Conclusions Proximity to the hypocentre, shielding and acute injury presence do not generally appear to influence suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. However, heterogeneity may exist by age and sex, with younger survivors potentially more sensitive to psychological trauma. Coupled with other studies, our results suggest the importance of long-term monitoring of mental health among young populations exposed to catastrophic events or mass trauma.

Psychiatry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determination of Sodium Abundance Ratio from Low-resolution Stellar Spectra and Its Applications

We present a method to determine sodium abundance ratios ([Na/Fe]) using the Na i D doublet lines in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra. As stellar Na i D lines are blended with those produced by the interstellar medium, we developed a technique for removing the interstellar Na I D lines using the relationship between extinction, which is proportional to E(B – V), and the equivalent width of the interstellar Na i D absorption lines. When measuring [Na/Fe], we also considered corrections for nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects. Comparisons with data from high-resolution spectroscopic surveys suggest that the expected precision of [Na/Fe] from low-resolution spectra is better than 0.3 dex for stars with [Fe/H] > –3.0. We also present a simple application employing the estimated [Na/Fe] values for a large number of stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). After classifying the SDSS stars into Na-normal, Na-high, and Na-extreme, we explore their relation to stars in Galactic globular clusters (GCs). We find that while the Na-high SDSS stars exhibit a similar metallicity distribution function (MDF) to that of the GCs, indicating that the majority of such stars may have originated from GC debris, the MDF of the Na-normal SDSS stars follows that of typical disk and halo stars. As there is a high fraction of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars among the Na-extreme stars, they may have a non-GC origin, perhaps due to mass-transfer events from evolved binary companions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Land use alters bacterial growth dynamics in soil

Microbial growth and mortality are major determinants of soil carbon cycling. We measured in situ growth dynamics of individual bacterial taxa in cropped and successional soils in response to a resource pulse. We hypothesized that land use imposes selection pressures on growth characteristics. We estimated growth and death for 453 and 73 taxa, respectively. The average generation time was 5.04 ± 6.28 (SD; range 0.7–63.5) days. Lag times were shorter in cultivated than successional soils and resource amendment decreased lag times. Taxa exhibiting the greatest growth response also exhibited the greatest mortality, indicative of boom-and-bust dynamics. We observed a bimodal growth rate distribution, representing fast- and slow-growing clusters. Both clusters grew more rapidly in successional soils, which had more organic matter, than cultivated soils. Resource amendment increased the growth rate of the slower growing but not the faster-growing cluster via a mixture of increased growth rates and species turnover, indicating that competitive dynamics constrain growth rates in situ. Furthermore, these two clusters show that copiotrophic bacteria in soils may be subdivided into different life history groups and that these subgroups respond independently to land use and resource availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous thermal tracking reveals spatiotemporal patterns of seabird activity relevant to interactions with floating offshore wind facilities

Planning is underway for placement of infrastructure needed to begin offshore wind (OSW) energy generation along the West Coast of the United States and elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the primarily nearshore windfarms currently in the North Atlantic, the seabird communities inhabiting Pacific Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) include significant populations of species that fly by dynamic soaring, a behavior dependent on wind and in which flight height increases steeply with wind speed. Therefore, a more precise and detailed assessment of their 3D airspace use is needed to better understand the potential collision risks that OSW turbines may present to these seabirds. Toward this end, a novel technology called the ThermalTracker-3D (TT3D), which uses thermal imaging and stereo vision, was developed to render high-resolution (on average within ±5 m) flight tracks and related behavior of seabirds. The technology was developed and deployed on a wind-profiling LiDAR buoy in the Humboldt WEA, located 34 to 57 km off California’s coast. During the at-sea deployment between 24 May and 13 August 2021, the TT3D successfully tracked birds moving between 10 and 500 m from the device, around the clock, and in all weather conditions; a total of 1407 detections and their corresponding 3D flight trajectories were recorded. Mean altitudes of detections ranged 6-295 m above sea level (asl). Considering the degree of overlap with anticipated rotor swept zones (RSZ), which extend 25-260 m asl, 79% of detected birds (per m 3 of airspace) moved below the RSZ, 21% moved at heights overlapping the RSZ, and another 0.04% occurred at heights exceeding the RSZ. The high-resolution tracks provided valuable insight into seabird space use, especially at heights that make them vulnerable to collision during various environmental conditions (e.g., darkness, strong winds). Observations made by the TT3D will be useful in filling critical knowledge gaps related to estimating collision and avoidance between seabirds and OSW facilities in the Pacific and elsewhere. Future research will focus on enhancing the TT3D’s identification capabilities to the lowest taxon through validation studies and artificial intelligence, further contributing to seabird conservation efforts associated with OSW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variable stars in Local Group galaxies – V. The fast and early evolution of the low-mass Eridanus II dSph galaxy

ABSTRACT We present a detailed study of the variable star population of Eridanus II (Eri II), an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy that lies close to the Milky Way virial radius. We analyse multi-epoch g, r, i ground-based data from Goodman and the Dark Energy Camera, plus F475W, F606W, F814W space data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys. We report the detection of 67 RR Lyrae (RRL) stars and 2 Anomalous Cepheids, most of them new discoveries. With the RRL stars, we measure the distance modulus of Eri II, μ0 = 22.84 ± 0.05 mag (D⊙ = 370 ± 9 kpc), and derive a metallicity spread of 0.3 dex (0.2 dex intrinsic). The colour distribution of the horizontal branch (HB) and the period distribution of the RRL stars can be nicely reproduced by a combination of two stellar models of [Fe/H] = (−2.62, −2.14). The overall low metallicity is consistent with the red giant branch bump location, 0.65 mag brighter than the HB. These results are in agreement with previous spectroscopic studies. The more metal-rich RRL and the RRab stars have greater central concentration than the more metal-poor RRL and the RRc stars that are mainly located outside ∼1 rh. This is similar to what is found in larger dwarf galaxies such as Sculptor, and in agreement with an outside-in galaxy formation scenario. This is remarkable in such a faint dwarf galaxy with an apparently single and extremely short (<1 Gyr) star formation burst. Finally, we have derived new and independent structural parameters for Eri II and its star cluster using our new data that are in very good agreement with previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of landscape attributes on Virginia opossum density

Abstract The Virginia opossum ( Didelphis virginiana ), North America's only marsupial, has a range extending from southern Ontario, Canada, to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, and from the Atlantic seaboard to the Pacific. Despite the Virginia opossum's taxonomic uniqueness in relation to other mammals in North America and rapidly expanding distribution, its ecology remains relatively understudied. Our poor understanding of the ecology of this important mesopredator is especially pronounced in the rural southeastern United States. Our goal was to estimate effects of habitat on opossum density within an extensive multi‐year spatial capture‐recapture study. Additionally, we compared the results of this spatial capture‐recapture analysis with a simple relative abundance index. Opossum densities in the relatively underdeveloped regions of the southeastern United States were lower compared to the more human‐dominated landscapes of the Northeast and Midwest. In the southeastern United States, Virginia opossums occurred at a higher density in bottomland swamp and riparian hardwood forest compared to upland pine ( Pinus spp.) plantations and isolated wetlands. These results reinforce the notion that the Virginia opossum is commonly associated with land cover types adjacent to permanent water (bottomland swamps, riparian hardwood). The relatively low density of opossums at isolated wetland sites suggests that the large spatial scale of selection demonstrated by opossums gives the species access to preferable cover types within the same landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗