Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PRICES”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48

Modeled economic potential for Eucalyptus spp. production for jet fuel additives in the United States

Feedstock price and availability remain a barrier to adoption of cellulosic biofuels. Eucalyptus spp., can produce an energy-dense terpene suitable for high-density synthetic hydrocarbon-type fuel (grade JP-10) production in addition to cellulosic-based feedstock for traditional jet fuels (e.g., grade Jet A) and gasoline. This study modeled economic potential for Eucalyptus to fulfill US fuel markets. Cold-tolerant Eucalyptus was simulated in an annual coppice system for maximized leaf production. Results of the lowest simulated price ($110 t -1 ) show that within 10 years, there is potential to produce 204 million L yr -1 of fuel, including 51 million L yr -1 of JP-10-type fuel, 75 million L yr -1 of Jet A type fuel, and 77 million L yr -1 of gasoline. These quantities of fuel could be valued at approximately $500 million (USD), with feedstock costs totaling approximately $100 million (USD). Longer-term markets (to 20 years) or higher priced (to $220 t -1 ) scenarios show potential for more production. Furthermore, research to determine potential for genetic improvement, delivered fuel costs, and biorefinery siting near existing infrastructure is recommended.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance and economic viability assessment of a novel CO 2 adsorbent for manufacturing and integration with coal power plants

Here, this study assesses the performance and economic feasibility of a novel CO 2 adsorbent for post-combustion capture in DOE/NETL’s 650 MWnet SubC PC power plant (case B11B). Bench-scale tests showed an initial adsorption capacity of 16.3 wt%, which decreased to 12.1 wt% after 41 adsorption–desorption cycles due to induced particle aggregation by over-humidification. With a conservative adsorption capacity of 8.8 wt% and 695 adsorption–desorption cycles, an adsorbent replenishment rate of 10 tonnes/h is necessary to capture 90% of CO 2 . The breakeven sale price of the adsorbent produced at this rate is $\$$1,293/tonne, which is 40 to 80 times lower than prices for K 2 CO 3 adsorbents reported in the literature (e.g., K 2 CO 3 /TiO 2 , K 2 CO 3 /ZrO 2 ) while providing better capture performances. Sensitivity analysis reveals that increasing the plant production rate from 10 to 40 tonnes/h reduces the sale price by 8%. The study also compares the CO 2 capture cost to Cansolv, an integrated solvent-based technology. The novel adsorbent requires 2.4 GJ/tonne of CO 2 for regeneration, lower than Cansolv’s 2.7 GJ/tonne. With conservative performance estimates, the capture cost is $\$$54/tonne of CO 2 , slightly higher than Cansolv’s $\$$45/tonne. To achieve lower or comparable capture costs to Cansolv, the adsorbent should meet one of the following conditions at a commercial scale: minimum 950 cycles, 16 wt% capture capacity, 50% of the adsorbent recovery, or a reduced cost to $\$$646/tonne by upscaling the manufactury to 75 tonnes/h.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Hydrothermal liquefaction of wastewater-grown algae to produce synthetic aviation fuel: A combined experimental study and techno-economic assessment

Large-scale algae farms may someday become a consistent source of biomass feedstock for biofuels. Near-term supplies of algal biomass are available at certain water resource recovery facilities as algae cultivation is used as a method for nutrient recovery from specific effluent streams. Algae grown as a service shifts the value to the service rather than its sole use as a feedstock, which could enable the provision of algal biomass at low to no cost to biofuel producers. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) can readily upgrade wet feedstock slurries, such as algae, to produce a carbon-enriched biocrude. The HTL biocrude can be hydrotreated and distilled, producing a variety of distillate fuels, including synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). We present a pathway, showing the experimental production of SAF from wastewater-grown algae via HTL, along with a techno-economic assessment to identify opportunities for process improvements. Critical quality attributes of the SAF, such as density, viscosity, surface tension, and freeze point, were estimated within the expected fuel experience ranges when compared against petroleum jet fuel. The average minimum fuel selling price of fuels from wastewater-grown algae for breakeven economics was $\$9.04$ per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE). The sale of co-products such as struvite fertilizers and cement additives can add revenue to reduce the net cost. Ultimately, the selling price is influenced by the scale of the HTL processing facility. Adjusting estimations in the process scale, algae yield, and capital cost estimation can lower the price to $\$6.51$/GGE or raise it to $13.07/GGE.

Biofuels↗

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimizing district energy systems under uncertainty: Insights from a case study from Washington D.C., USA

This study investigates solutions for delivering affordable heating and cooling to a brownfield site, focusing on a case study in Washington, DC. Moving towards more diverse and resilient energy systems, we identify the optimal portfolio for a district energy system with diverse energy sources to meet the area’s energy demands. Our methodological approach integrates two detailed models: one calculating building-level energy demand and the other optimizing district energy technology choices based on their demand profiles, accounting for uncertainties in energy prices, policies, and other parameters. The results provide an economic comparison of district and individual supply options at the building level, emphasizing the flexibility district systems can offer to the electricity sector. District energy systems demonstrate cost-stabilization benefits amidst volatile energy prices and external uncertainties. For heating, district systems yield significant cost savings compared to individual solutions, driven by fuel flexibility and the use of local renewable energy sources. For cooling, district systems also show advantages, though individual systems may remain more cost-effective for smaller buildings. Additionally, district systems exhibit considerable flexibility on the heating side, as evidenced by variations in electricity consumption. We recommend future research to explore the relationship between the economics of district energy systems, particularly at the building level, and their flexibility potential for the electricity sector across diverse geographic contexts to reduce overall grid costs and promote grid reliability. This includes areas with distinct zoning laws, municipal priorities, utility structures, and funding mechanisms, such as the United States, and regions like Europe with pronounced electricity price volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Near-term limits to mitigation: challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions

We explore the implications of potentially perverse greenhouse gas mitigation responses to carbon prices and the complications that could ensue for limiting radiative forcing in the near-term. Specifically we consider the problem of reproducing the radiative forcing pathway for Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5, which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Wm-2 (650 ppm CO2-e) under a different terrestrial policy assumption. We show that if indirect land-use change emissions are not priced, carbon prices that can replicate this pathway in the near-term may not exist. We further show that additional complexities could emerge as a consequence of the co-production of CO2 and sulfur emissions as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.

Calvin, Katherine V.↗

Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers to adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cai, DWH↗

Early nuclear retirements in deregulated U.S. markets: Causes, implications and policy options

Here, electricity prices have fallen significantly since 2008, putting commercial nuclear reactors in the United States under substantial financial pressure. In this market environment driven by persistently low natural gas prices and stagnant electricity demand, we estimate that about two thirds of the 100 GW nuclear capacity are uncompetitive over the next few years under the current trajectory. Among those, 18 GW are retiring or are merchant plants at high risk of retiring prematurely. The potential consequences of the hypothetical withdrawal of 20 GW of nuclear capacity include: 1) a ~3.2% increase in carbon emissions if replaced by gas-fired units or 2) a significant increase in cost if replaced by renewables. Without a carbon price, out-of-the-market payments would be needed to effectively maintain merchant nuclear capacity. Filling the revenue gap would come at a fleet-average cost of 3.5-5.5/ MWh for these plants, which is much lower than the cost of subsidizing wind power. The policy support could take the form of direct zero-emission credits, renewable portfolio standard expansion, or clean capacity market mechanisms. As a last resort, the exercise of a new mothballing status could prevent the irreversible retirement of nuclear power assets.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets

We present a computationally-efficient optimization model that finds the least-cost generation unit expansion, commitment, and dispatch plan to serve hourly electricity demand and ancillary service requirements. We apply the model to a case study based on data from the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT) to analyze the market and investment impacts of several incentive mechanisms that support variable renewable energy (VRE) investments and carbon emission reductions. In contrast to many previous studies, the model determines least-cost VRE investments under different cost and incentive assumptions rather than analyzing scenarios where VRE expansion is pre-determined. We find that electricity prices can vary significantly under different incentive mechanisms, even when comparable generation portfolios result. Therefore, the preferred incentive mechanism depends on stakeholder objectives as well as the prevailing electricity market framework. Our results indicate that a carbon tax is more system cost-efficient for reducing emissions, while production and investment tax credits are more system cost-efficient for increasing VRE investments. Similarly, incentive mechanisms that reduce electricity prices may increase the need for separate revenue sufficiency mechanisms (e.g. a capacity market) more than a policy that increases electricity prices. Moreover, the impacts on consumer payments are not always aligned with changes in system costs. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of considering electricity market impacts in assessing the economic efficiency of VRE and carbon incentive mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model

A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A hierarchical framework for aggregating grid-interactive buildings with thermal and battery energy storage

The behind-the-meter (BTM) thermal and battery energy storage can help improve energy efficiency, reduce energy costs, and enhance energy resilience, particularly in rural areas and for disadvantaged communities. Aggregating numerous BTM energy storage systems can act as a price influencer with a significant source of load shifting and peak demand reduction. An integrated and scalable control mechanism is required to effectively utilize energy storage systems and flexible building loads to maximize the economic benefits, considering various distribution system constraints. Here, this paper presents an innovative hierarchical coordination framework for energy storage and flexible load in buildings, considering various factors such as electricity prices, thermal comfort, and distribution system modeling and constraints. At the upper level, a distribution system operator optimizes the power flow to minimize its power procurement costs from the electricity wholesale market, while at the lower level, aggregators determine the optimal dispatch of battery and thermal energy storage systems in multiple buildings on behalf of end-users to minimize operating costs according to the power prices. These problems are solved using a game-theoretic approach through negotiations between the distribution system operator and aggregators as a bi-level decision model. Simulation case studies have been performed for a test distribution network with a number of building end-users using energy storage systems to quantify the performance of aggregators. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can reduce peak load for a reliable electricity distribution network while saving electricity bills for customers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cost-optimized energy storage operation for a grid-connected solar PV system at community and individual scales

This study provides a comparative analysis of grid-connected PV-integrated battery storage at individual and community scales. The paper addresses the challenge of managing energy demand-generation mismatch by using a battery energy storage optimization algorithm, which minimizes operational costs while accounting for battery degradation. Also, this work introduces a broader evaluation basis that includes seasonal variability, grid exchange smoothness, and scalability across different battery capacities. Results show that community-scale storage more effectively dampens grid exchange power fluctuations and reduces system costs, particularly with moderate price differences between electricity buying and selling prices and low battery capacities. The paper also analyzes the impacts of static control versus cost-optimized battery system management. Here, it is shown that the gap in system costs between the cost-optimized and static control scenarios widens as the price difference increases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Techno-economic evaluation of a process for direct conversion of methane to aromatics

Natural gas is widely abundant and relatively inexpensive. As such, large quantities are flared every year. This presents an opportunity to use natural gas as a chemical feedstock. Non-oxidative dehydroaromatization of methane, the major component of natural gas is proposed as an option to monetize natural gas. This study evaluates the economics of the methane to benzene process. A catalytic membrane reactor model written in MATLAB has been directly implemented in an Aspen Plus V9 process model using CAPE-OPEN interoperability. Minimum utility requirements and heat exchanger designs were identified in Aspen Energy Analyzer, and process economics for a variety of feed and product prices were assessed using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. The results indicate that the venture is profitable (profitability index of 1.17, IRR of 35.5%, NRR of 18.2%). The capital cost was found to be $35,500 per daily standard barrel of benzene. Additionally, the process remains economically attractive so long as either the price of benzene remains above $470/ton, or the price of hydrogen remains above $0.8/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios – business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice – were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers’ carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Here, using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 10 3 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $\$6.5$ per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50Mg -1 CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 10 3 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 10 3 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗