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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment Overview: Regional Impacts of Using the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB for Lightning IDSS

The new generation of GOES satellites has presented a wealth of novel observations and data products to the National Weather Service forecasters throughout the country. While high quality, low latency data is always welcome in operational environments, it is valuable to understand how new information is interpreted, and how it complements and supplements existing datasets. To that end, NASA SPoRT, in partnership with the NWS, hosted a formal assessment of the use of the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB to anticipate lightning initiation as indicated by either GLM, NLDN, or both, using an approach outlined by Elsenheimer and Gravelle (2019). As is typical for SPoRT assessments, we focused on a targeted time period (about 6 weeks in June and July 2021) and provided a brief training module to help forecasters become familiar with the application we were targeting and the objectives of our assessment. Unlike typical SPoRT assessments, we focused on a broad geographic region, coordinating with NWS Regional offices to garner participation from several different WFOs throughout the country. Given the field of view and observation angles of GOES-East and GOES-West, which anecdotally impacts GLM lightning observations in particular, having a geographically diverse participant list helps us interpret how these viewing differences may impact interpretation of the RGB and its value in anticipating lightning. Not unexpectedly, we found that the participating forecasters expressed that they could readily interpret the RGB to recognize glaciation and, in the absence of lightning data, use the RGB to anticipate that lightning was possible, for the purpose of impact-based decision support services (IDSS). Lead times from observations of glaciation to first flash were 19 minutes on average, and -10C isothermal reflectivities ranged from 34.5 to 52.5 dBZ. Herein, we present the detailed results of the formal assessment period and provide next steps and recommendations based on forecaster feedback for using the DCPD RGB in the context of anticipating lightning initiation and for IDSS, including regional differences in observations.

satellite remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Assimilating Cloud-Cleared and Adaptively Thinned Infrared Hyperspectral Data on Tropical Cyclones in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Framework

A simple adaptive thinning methodology for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) radiances is evaluated through a combination of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and adjoint methodologies. In addition, the impact of cloud-cleared radiances for AIRS is also evaluated. The OSEs are performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) data assimilation and forecast model. The adaptive strategy uses a denser coverage in a moving domain centered around tropical cyclones (TCs), sparser everywhere else.The OSEs consist of three sets of data assimilation runs that cover the period from September 1st to 10 November 2014, with the first 20 days discarded for spin-up. All sets assimilate conventional and satellite observations used operationally. In addition, one ingests clear-sky AIRS, CrIS, and IASI radiances at different densities, another AIRS cloud-cleared radiances, and CrIS and IASI clear-sky radiances, and the third adaptively thinned AIRS, CrIS and IASI radiances. Daily 10-day forecasts are initialized from all these analyses and evaluated with focus on TCs over the Atlantic and the Pacific.Evidence is provided that this simple TC-centered adaptive radiance thinning strategy, in full agreement with previous theoretical studies, increases the global forecast skill and improves tropical cyclone representation and intensity forecast. In addition, the impact of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances is demonstrated to be particularly strong on TCs. The implications are that cloud-cleared radiances, if thinned more aggressively than the currently used clear-sky radiances, could be operationally used with large gain in TC forecasting and no loss of global skill.

Reale, Oreste↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS): First Year On-Orbit

The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) is a new satellite microwave sounding sensor designed to provide operational weather agencies with atmospheric temperature and moisture profile information for global weather forecasting and climate applications. A TMS will continue the microwave sounding capabilities first provided by its predecessors, the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). The first flight unit was launched a year ago in October, 2011 aboard the Suomi-National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, part of the new Joint Polar-Orbiting Satellite System (JPSS). Microwave soundings by themselves are the highest-impact input data used by Numerical Weather Prediction models; and A TMS, when combined with the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), forms the Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS). The microwave soundings help meet sounding requirements under cloudy sky conditions and provide key profile information near the surface. ATMS was designed & built by Aerojet Corporation in Azusa, California, (now Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems). It has 22 channels spanning 23-183 GHz, closely following the channel set of the MSU, AMSU-AI/2, AMSU-B, Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB). It continues their cross-track scanning geometry, but for the first time, provides Nyquist sample spacing. All this is accomplished with approximately V. the volume, Y, the mass, and Y, the power of the three AMSUs. A description will be given of its performance from its first year of operation as determined by post-launch calibration activities. These activities include radiometric calibration using the on-board warm targets and cold space views, and geolocation determination. Example imagery and zooms of specific weather events will be shown. The second ATMS flight model is currently under construction and planned for launch on the "Jl" satellite of the JPSS program in approximately 2016. Additional units are expected on the J2 and 13 satellites, as well as potentially on future European METOP satellites.

Kim, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Economic benefits of improved meteorological forecasts - The construction industry

Estimates are made of the potential economic benefits accruing to particular industries from timely utilization of satellite-derived six-hour weather forecasts, and of economic penalties resulting from failure to utilize such forecasts in day-to-day planning. The cost estimate study is centered on the U.S. construction industry, with results simplified to yes/no 6-hr forecasts on thunderstorm activity and work/no work decisions. Effects of weather elements (thunderstorms, snow and sleet) on various construction operations are indicated. Potential dollar benefits for other industries, including air transportation and other forms of transportation, are diagrammed for comparison. Geosynchronous satellites such as STORMSAT, SEOS, and SMS/GOES are considered as sources of the forecast data.

Bhattacharyya, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results)

A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions. An economic experiment was carried out which will monitor citrus growers' decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events and will establish the economic benefits of improved temperature forecasts. A summary is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done. Specifically, the experiment design is described in detail as are the developed data collection methodology and procedures, sampling plan, data reduction techniques, cost and loss models, establishment of frost severity measures, data obtained from citrus growers, National Weather Service, and Federal Crop Insurance Corp., resulting protection costs and crop losses for the control group sample, extrapolation of results of control group to the Florida citrus industry and the method for normalization of these results to a normal or average frost season so that results may be compared with anticipated similar results from test group measurements.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

Automating the SMAP Ground Data System to Support Lights-Out Operations

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission is a first tier mission in NASA's Earth Science Decadal Survey. SMAP will provide a global mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw states. This mapping will be used to enhance the understanding of processes that link the terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles, and to enhance weather and forecast capabilities. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been selected as the lead center for the development and operation of SMAP. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has an extensive history of successful deep space exploration. JPL missions have typically been large scale Class A missions with significant budget and staffing. SMAP represents a new area of JPL focus towards low cost Earth science missions. Success in this new area requires changes to the way that JPL has traditionally provided the Mission Operations System (MOS)/Ground Data System (GDS) functions. The operation of SMAP requires more routine operations activities and support for higher data rates and data volumes than have been achieved in the past. These activities must be addressed by a reduced operations team and support staff. To meet this challenge, the SMAP ground data system provides automation that will perform unattended operations, including automated commanding of the SMAP spacecraft.

GDS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An expert system for diagnosing anomalies of spacecraft

Although the analysis of anomalous behavior of satellites is difficult because it is a very complex process, it is important to be able to make an accurate assessment in a timely manner when the anomaly is observed. Spacecraft operators may have to take corrective action or to 'safe' the spacecraft; space-environment forecasters may have to assess the environmental situation and issue warnings and alerts regarding hazardous conditions, and scientists and engineers may want to gain knowledge for future designs to mitigate the problems. Anomalies can be hardware problems, software errors, environmentally induced, or even the cause of workmanship. Spacecraft anomalies attributable to electrostatic discharges have been known to cause command errors. A goal is to develop an automated system based on this concept to reduce the number of personnel required to operate large programs or missions such as Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE). Although expert systems to detect anomalous behavior of satellites during operations are established, diagnosis of the anomaly is a complex procedure and is a new development.

Lauriente, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space Station Freedom Data Assessment Study

The SSF Data Assessment Study was initiated to identify payload and operations data requirements to be supported in the Space Station era. To initiate the study payload requirements from the projected SSF user community were obtained utilizing an electronic questionnaire. The results of the questionnaire were incorporated in a personal computer compatible database used for mission scheduling and end-to-end communications analyses. This paper discusses data flow paths and associated latencies, communications bottlenecks, resource needs versus availability, payload scheduling 'warning flags' and payload data loading requirements for each major milestone in the Space Station buildup sequence. This paper also presents the statistical and analytical assessments produced using the data base, an experiment scheduling program, and a Space Station unique end-to-end simulation model. The modeling concepts and simulation methodologies presented in this paper provide a foundation for forecasting communication requirements and identifying modeling tools to be used in the SSF Tactical Operations Planning (TOP) process.

Johnson, Anngienetta R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Study of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Atmosphere at the Florida Spaceport

Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (KTTS) in Kennedy Space Center, FL for all Space Shuttle missions. Mission verification statistics have shown cloud ceilings to be the biggest forecast challenge. SMG forecasters are especially concerned with rapidly developing cloud ceilings below 8000 ft. in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment because ceilings below 8000 ft restrict Shuttle landing operations and are the most challenging to predict accurately. This project involves the development of a database of these cases over east-central Florida in order to identify the onset, location, and if possible, dissipation times of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. Another goal is to document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development to improve forecast skill of such events during Space Shuttle launch and landing operations. A 10-year database of stable, rapid low cloud development days during the daylight hours was compiled for the Florida cool-season months by examining the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station sounding data, and identifying days that had high boundary layer relative humidity associated with a thermally-capped environment below 8000 ft. Archived hourly surface observations from KTTS and Melbourne, Orlando, Sanford, and Ocala, FL were then examined for the onset of cloud ceilings below 8000 ft between 1100 and 2000 UTC. Once the database was supplemented with the hourly surface cloud observations, visible satellite imagery was examined in 30-minute intervals to confirm event occurrences. This paper will present results from some of the rapidly developing cloud ceiling cases and the prevailing meteorological conditions associated with these events, focusing on potential pre-curser information that may help improve their prediction.

FROM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hourly Stream Heights – A Short-term Deep Learning Prediction Model

River flooding can have a detrimental impact on a community by causing loss of life, loss or damage to property, and damage to infrastructure. Having the capability to forecast flooding events can prevent the loss of life and mitigate damage to property. A programmatic, data-driven approach using deep learning to forecast a stream’s gauge height every 6 hours has been developed by NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) and is currently in operation. Based on our end user engagement and feedback, this medium-term product has been successfully adopted by several National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC). SPoRT is currently researching and developing a short-term hourly deep learning model which will be useful in forecasting flash flood events.

Michael Antia↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

Suggs, Ron↗