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At least 865 records · Page 48

Simple Statistical Models for Predicting Overpressure Due to CO2 and Low-Salinity Waste-Fluid Injection into Deep Saline Formations

Deep saline aquifers have been used for waste-fluid disposal for decades and are the proposed targets for large-scale CO2 storage to mitigate CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Due to relatively limited experience with CO2 injection in deep saline formations and given that the injection targets for CO2 sometimes are the same as waste-fluid disposal formations, it could be beneficial to model and compare both practices and learn from the waste-fluid disposal industry. In this paper, we model CO2 injection in the Patterson Field, which has been proposed as a site for storage of 50 Mt of industrial CO2 over 25 years. We propose general models that quickly screen the reservoir properties and calculate pressure changes near and far from the injection wellbore, accounting for variable reservoir properties. The reservoir properties we investigated were rock compressibility, injection rate, vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio, average reservoir permeability and porosity, reservoir temperature and pressure, and the injectant total dissolved solids (TDS) in cases of waste-fluid injection. We used experimental design to select and perform simulation runs, performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the important variables on pressure build-up, and then fit a regression model to the simulation runs to obtain simple proxy models for changes in average reservoir pressure and bottomhole pressure. The CO2 injection created more pressure compared to saline waste-fluids, when similar mass was injected. However, we found a more significant pressure buildup at the caprock-reservoir interface and lower pressure buildup at the bottom of the reservoir when injecting CO2 compared with waste-fluid injection.

Ansari, Esmail↗

Additional Degree of Freedom for WEC Model

'Additional Degree of Freedom for WEC' - WEC-Sim numerical model from RFTS 1 TEAMER project. An increase in wave energy converter (WEC) efficiency requires not only consideration of the nonlinear effects in the WEC dynamics and the power take-off (PTO) mechanisms, but also more integrated treatment of the whole system, i.e., the buoy dynamics, the PTO system, and the control strategy. It results in an optimization formulation that has a nonquadratic and nonstandard cost functional. This model presents the application of real-time nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) to two degrees of freedom point absorber type WEC with highly nonlinear PTO characteristics. The nonlinear effects, such as the fluid viscous drag, are also included in the plant dynamics. The controller may be implemented on a real-time target machine, and the WEC device is emulated in real-time using the WECSIM toolbox. Please see the ‘ReadMe’ within the root directory for an explanation of how to set-up and run the model. An article covering the development of this model is attached as "Real-Time Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller for Multiple Degrees of Freedom Wave Energy Converters with Non-Ideal Power Take-Off"

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements of the Higgs boson inclusive and differential fiducial cross-sections in the diphoton decay channel with pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of inclusive and differential fiducial cross-sections for the production of the Higgs boson decaying into two photons is performed using 139 fb –1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The inclusive cross-section times branching ratio, in a fiducial region closely matching the experimental selection, is measured to be 67 ± 6 fb, which is in agreement with the state-of-the-art Standard Model prediction of 64 ± 4 fb. Extrapolating this result to the full phase space and correcting for the branching ratio, the total cross-section for Higgs boson production is estimated to be 58 ± 6 pb. In addition, the cross-sections in four fiducial regions sensitive to various Higgs boson production modes and differential cross-sections as a function of either one or two of several observables are measured. All the measurements are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model predictions. The measured transverse momentum distribution of the Higgs boson is used as an indirect probe of the Yukawa coupling of the Higgs boson to the bottom and charm quarks. In addition, five differential cross-section measurements are used to constrain anomalous Higgs boson couplings to vector bosons in the Standard Model effective field theory framework.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Insensitivity to propagation timing in a preview-enabled wind turbine control experiment

Lidar scanners are capable of taking measurements of a wind field upstream of a wind turbine. The wind turbine controller can use these measurements as a “preview” of future disturbances impacting the turbine. Such preview-enabled (or feedforward) controllers show superior performance to standard wind turbine control configurations based purely on a feedback architecture. To capitalize on the performance improvements that preview wind measurements can provide, feedforward control actions should be timed to coincide with the arrival of the wind field at the wind turbine location. However, the time of propagation of the wind field between the lidar measurement location and the wind turbine is not perfectly known. Moreover, the best time to take feedforward control action may not perfectly coincide with the true arrival time of the wind disturbance. This contribution presents results from an experiment where preview-enabled model predictive control was deployed on a fully-actuated, scaled model wind turbine operating in a wind tunnel testbed. In the study, we investigate the sensitivity of the controller performance to the assumed propagation delay using a range of wind input sequences. We find that the preview-enabled controller outperforms the feedback only case across a wide range of assumed propagation delays, demonstrating a level of robustness to the time alignment of the incoming disturbances.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impact of indirect CP violation on Br( K S → μ + μ – ) ℓ=0

The decay K S → μ + μ – ) ℓ=0 , with the final muon pair in an angular-momentum zero state, is a sensitive probe of short-distance physics. It has recently been shown how to extract this branching ratio from neutral kaon decay data. We point out that the impact of indirect CP violation on the standard-model prediction of this mode, while nominally of order $\vert$ε K $\vert$ ~ 10 -3 , is enhanced by a large amplitude ratio and leads to a shift of the branching ratio Br( K S → μ + μ – ) ℓ=0 by a few percent, depending on the size of a relative phase that can be extracted from data. We also update the standard-model prediction of the short-distance contribution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Machine learning-aided line intensity ratio technique applied to deuterium plasmas

It has been demonstrated that the electron density, n e , and temperature, T e , are successfully evaluated from He I line intensity ratios coupled with machine learning (ML). In this paper, the ML-aided line intensity ratio technique is applied to deuterium (D) plasmas with 0.031 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 0.67 and 2.3 < T e (eV) < 5.1 in the PISCES-A linear plasma device. Two line intensity ratios, D α /D γ and D α /D β , are used to develop a predictive model for n e and T e separately. Reasonable agreement of both ne and Te with those from single Langmuir probe measurements is obtained at n e > 0.1 × 10 18 m –3 . Addition of the D 2 /D α intensity ratio, where the D 2 band emission intensity is integrated in a wavelength range of λ ~ 557.4–643.0 nm, is found to improve the prediction of, in particular, n e , and T e . It is also confirmed that the technique works for D plasmas with 0.067 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 6.1 and 0.8 < T e (eV) < 15 in another linear plasma device, PISCES-RF. The two training datasets from PISCES-A and PISCES-RF are combined, and unified predictive models for n e and T e give reasonable agreement with probe measurements in both devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The influence of thermochemistry on the reactivity of propane, the pentane isomers and $n$-heptane in the low temperature regime

In this study, the influence of thermochemistry on the reactivity of fuels at low temperatures (600–1000 K) is studied here. Specifically, the effect of different sets of thermochemistry on chemical model predictions is explored, where various sets are calculated at different levels of theory in addition to recently updated group additivity values. Experimentally measured ignition delay times for propane, the pentane isomers and n-heptane are simulated using NUIGMech1.2 and replacing the thermochemistry of the low-temperature species with the calculated values. For propane, three different thermochemistry sets were calculated, namely CCSD(T)-F12/TZ-F12//B2PLYP-D3/TZ//B2PLYP-D3/TZ (QM1), CCSD(T)-F12/TZ-F12//B2PLYP-D3/TZ//ωB97X-D/TZ (QM2) and B2PLYP-D3/TZ/ωB97X-D/6-31G*//ωB97X-D/6-31G* (QM3). The QM2 results provide parameters to optimize new group additivity (NGA) values which are used to calculate the fourth set of thermochemistry. The model predictions using these four sets are compared to those using NUIGMech1.2 for propane. As the QM1 and QM2 calculations are expensive, the thermochemistry calculated from the QM3 and NGA calculations are used in the pentane isomer and n-heptane models. For all of the models, it is found that the thermochemistry of the species involved in the low-temperature reaction sequence ($RH$, $\dot{R}$, $RO_2H$, $R\dot{O}_2$, $\dot{Q}OOH$ and $\dot{O}_2QOOH$ species) significantly affect fuel reactivity. The NGA values were developed based on all of these species except $\dot{O}_2QOOH$ radicals. The thermochemistry of $\dot{O}_2QOOH$ species cannot be accurately calculated with the NGA representations due to the importance of non-next-nearest neighbor interactions of –OOH substitution. Further development of the NGA method to capture such interactions is in progress. Overall, the model developed using the NGA thermochemistry shows better agreement with experimental data than the model using thermochemistry from affordable and prominent QM methods, such as QM3. Based on the results presented for propane, the pentane isomers and n-heptane, the thermochemistry calculated using the NGA method can be used to model the oxidation of higher order hydrocarbons at low temperatures.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating in Grid-Forming Control: Preprint

We have shown in a previous work that the risk of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) between a wind power plant with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines in the plant are operated in grid-forming mode, instead of the standard grid-following mode. The fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics is explained in this paper by modeling the positive and negative sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines for GFM operation mode. It is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance of Type III wind turbines that results from an interaction between the proportional gain of the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed sequence impedance models and improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the sequence impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine during operation in GFL and GFM modes.

grid-following turbine↗

Deep Learning-Based Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure System for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Buses at Signalized Intersections: A Simulation Study

Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) has been considered as a promising eco-driving strategy for vehicles traveling in an urban environment, where information such as signal phase and timing (SPaT) and geometric intersection description is well utilized to guide vehicles passing through intersections in the most energy-efficient manner. Previous studies formulated the optimal trajectory planning problem as finding the shortest path on a graphical model. While this method is effective in terms of energy saving, its computation efficiency can be further enhanced by adopting machine learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning-based queue-aware eco-approach and departure (DLQ-EAD) system for a plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB), which is able to provide an online optimal trajectory for the vehicle considering both the downstream traffic condition (i.e. traffic lights, queues) and the vehicle powertrain efficiency. Based on optimal solutions obtained from the graph-based trajectory planning algorithm (GTPA), a deep neural network (DNN) is developed to learn the optimal vehicle speed for the next time step given its current state. It is demonstrated that the trained DNN can provide energy-efficient trajectories with high computational efficiency and high flexibility adopting to dynamic changes in the surrounding environment. To address the impact of downstream traffic, a queue prediction model is further developed using data from radars and connected vehicles (CVs), as well as signal timing data from SPaT messages. A comprehensive simulation study in the microscopic traffic modeling software PTV VISSIM shows that the proposed DLQ-EAD can achieve 18.7%-24.0% energy efficiency improvements for a single PHEB on various traffic congestion levels. The proposed queue prediction model can be of practical significance even at low penetration rates of CVs. Specifically, additional energy savings of 2.0%-8.2% can be further achieved with 20% vehicles in the network.

Ye, Fei↗

Hybrid Heat Pump Controls: Conventional Dual Fuel versus Seamlessly Fuel Flexible Heat Pump

This paper compares the performance of a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP) and conventional dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) for space heating. The conventional dual fuel systems either run on the gas furnace or electric heat pump at any given moment, as a comparison, the proposed seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump simultaneously consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. The process air flows across the heat pump condenser first and then flows across the furnace coil, therefore, the heat pump temperature lift is reduced. SFFHP delivers energy savings by allowing each subsystem, i.e., gas furnace and electric heat pump, to operate where it performs best.For DFHP, two operation control strategies, i.e., non-restricted control and restricted control, are available on market. For the non-restricted mode, the thermostat has a switching temperature-programmed according to the balancing point of heating load and capacity curve. Heat pump operates above the switching temperature, while the furnace takes over under the switching temperature. For the restricted control, the compressor of a heat pump is disabled below a predefined lockout outdoor temperature to let the furnace take over. For SFFHP, a model predictive control strategy is developed to continuously adjust the capacities of the electric heat pump and gas furnace based on the foreseen weather data, utility price signals, and marginal grid emission signals with the goal of minimizing the utility cost and CO2 emission while guaranteeing comfort requirements.In this paper, DFHP and SFFHP are simulated using high-fidelity heat pump performance curves generated from DOE/ORNL heat pump design model. Performance comparison of DFHP and SFFHP during 2019-2020 heating season in Los Angeles shows that SFFHP with model predictive control achieves 23% utility cost reduction and 17 % CO2 emission reduction. Case studies demonstrate that SFFHP can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO2 emission. As a result, SFFHP can deliver superior benefits for utility cost reduction and CO2 emission reduction over conventional dual fuel heat pump.

Li, Zhenning↗

Phenomenological Model of Nonlinear Dynamics and Deterministic Chaotic Gas Migration in Bentonite: Experimental Evidence and Diagnostic Parameters

Understanding gas migration in compacted clay materials, e.g., bentonite and claystone, is important for the design and performance assessment of an engineered barrier system of a radioactive waste repository system, as well as many practical applications. Existing field and laboratory data on gas migration processes in low-permeability clay materials demonstrate the complexity of flow and transport processes, including various types of instabilities, caused by nonlinear dynamics of coupled processes of liquid–gas exchange, dilation, fracturing, fracture healing, etc., which cannot be described by classical models of fluid dynamics in porous media. We here show that the complexity of gas migration processes can be explained using a phenomenological concept of nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos theory. To do so, we analyzed gas pressure and gas influx (i.e., input) and outflux (i.e., output), recorded during the gas injection experiment in the compact Mx80-D bentonite sample, and calculated a set of the diagnostic parameters of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, such a global embedding dimension, a correlation dimension, an information dimension, and a spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, as well as plotted 2D and 3D pseudo-phase-space strange attractors, based on the univariate influx and outflux time series data. These results indicate the presence of phenomena of low-dimensional deterministic chaotic behavior of gas migration in bentonite. In particular, during the onset of gas influx in the bentonite core, before the breakthrough, the development of gas flow pathways is characterized by the process of chaotic gas diffusion. After the breakthrough, with inlet-to-outlet movement of gas, the prevailing process is chaotic advection. During the final phase of the experiment, with no influx to the sample, the relaxation pattern of gas outflux is resumed back to a process of chaotic diffusion. The types of data analysis and a proposed phenomenological model can be used to establish the basic principles of experimental data-gathering, modeling predictions, and a research design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Model-independent predictions for decays of double-heavy hadrons into pairs of heavy hadrons

Double-heavy hadrons can decay into pairs of heavy hadrons through transitions from confining Born-Oppenheimer potentials to heavy-hadron-pair potentials with the same Born-Oppenheimer quantum numbers. The states of the double-heavy hadron are constrained by a Born-Oppenheimer exclusion principle from the identical heavy quarks. The states of a pair of identical heavy hadrons are constrained by exclusion principles from identical particles. The transitions are also constrained by conservation of angular momentum and parity. From these constraints, we derive model-independent selection rules for decays of double-heavy hadrons into pairs of heavy hadrons. The coupling potentials are expressed as sums of products of Born-Oppenheimer transition amplitudes and angular-momentum coefficients. If there is a single dominant Born-Oppenheimer transition amplitude, it factors out of the coupling potentials between double-heavy hadrons in the same Born-Oppenheimer multiplet and pairs of heavy hadrons in specific heavy-quark-spin-symmetry multiplets and out of the corresponding partial decay rates. As examples, we discuss the Born-Oppenheimer potentials and multiplets for conventional double-heavy baryons and for double-heavy tetraquark mesons. We also discuss the relative partial decay rates for conventional double-heavy baryons into pairs of heavy hadrons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observations of high-time-resolution and size-resolved aerosol chemical composition and microphysics in the central Arctic: implications for climate-relevant particle properties

Abstract. Aerosols play a critical role in the Arctic's radiative balance, influencing solar radiation and cloud formation. Limited observations in the central Arctic leave gaps in understanding aerosol dynamics year-round, affecting model predictions of climate-relevant aerosol properties. Here, we present the first annual high-time-resolution observations of submicron aerosol chemical composition in the central Arctic during the Arctic Ocean 2018 (AO2018) and the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expeditions. Seasonal variations in the aerosol mass concentrations and chemical composition in the central Arctic were found to be driven by typical Arctic seasonal regimes and resemble those of pan-Arctic land-based stations. Organic aerosols dominated the pristine summer, while anthropogenic sulfate prevailed in autumn and spring under haze conditions. Ammonium, which impacts aerosol acidity, was consistently less abundant, relative to sulfate, in the central Arctic compared to lower latitudes of the Arctic. Cyclonic (storm) activity was found to have a significant influence on aerosol variability by enhancing emissions from local sources and the transport of remote aerosol. Local wind-generated particles contributed up to 80 % (20 %) of the cloud condensation nuclei population in autumn (spring). While the analysis presented herein provides the current central Arctic aerosol baseline, which will serve to improve climate model predictions in the region, it also underscores the importance of integrating short-timescale processes, such as seasonal wind-driven aerosol sources from blowing snow and open leads/ocean in model simulations. This is particularly important, given the decline in mid-latitude anthropogenic emissions and the increase in local ones.

Heutte, Benjamin (ORCID:0000000173727460)↗

A Bayesian Neural Network Ensemble Approach for Improving Large-Scale Streamflow Predictability

Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g.,AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). We propose a Bayesian neural network ensemble approach for improving large-scale streamflow predictability and understanding in a changing environment that combines multiple Earth system land model predictions by calculating spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases while accounting for various types of observations at multiple scales with uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Modified Network Alteration Model to Predict Quasi-Static Behavior of the Cross-Linked Polymers During Hydrolytic Aging

Abstract The network alteration theory is utilized to capture the effects of hydrolytic aging on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix. Hydrolytic degradation generally considered as a result of two simultaneous chemical phenomena; (i) reduction of the cross-links, and (ii) active chain loss. Assuming the alteration of the chain density is identical to the change of the number average molecular weight along the aging trajectory, the strain energy of polymer matrix can be rewritten as a function of deformation, deformation history, storage time, and aging temperature. The proposed model includes only five physically inspired material parameters. Thus, while it is computationally efficient, it shows good agreement with own experimental data, which performed on various range of accelerated aging temperatures and times. With respect to its computational efficiency, simplicity, accuracy, and interpret-ability, the model is a good choice for advanced implementations in FE programs.

Bahrololoumi, Amir↗

Electrorefiner Speciation and Phase Model for Prediction of Operation Lifetime

The Mk IV electrorefiner (ER) at Idaho National Laboratory has recovered uranium metal from used nuclear fuels for 27 years. Thus, large quantities of fission product chlorides more electropositive than uranium have accumulated in the ER salt, increasing the complexity of phase equilibria and salt speciation. Importantly, the melt temperature of the salt increases with ER operation and will ultimately exceed design limits without intervention. Methods to remove fission products from molten chloride salt are known, but their implementation at scale is not yet demonstrated. In this work, historical ER composition and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) are utilized to develop coupled speciation and chloride salt solution thermochemistry models, which enable accurate present-day analysis of ER salt as well as forecast its future disposition. The developed thermochemical models are applicable to chloride salts generally and have been made available in the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database – Thermochemical.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗